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E-grāmata: Advancing the Science of Climate Change

  • Formāts: 526 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 10-Dec-2010
  • Izdevniecība: National Academies Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780309155922
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  • Formāts: 526 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 10-Dec-2010
  • Izdevniecība: National Academies Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780309155922
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Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks forand in many cases is already affectinga broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations.



As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change.



Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.





Table of Contents



Front Matter Summary Part I 1 Introduction: Science for Understanding and Responding to Climate Change 2 What We Know About Climate Change and Its Interactions with People and Ecosystems 3 A New Era of Climate Change Research 4 Integrative Themes for Climate Change Research 5 Recommendations for Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change Research Part II: Technical Chapters 6 Changes in the Climate System 7 Sea Level Rise and the Coastal Environment 8 Freshwater Resources 9 Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity 10 Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Production 11 Public Health 12 Cities and the Built Environment 13 Transportation 14 Energy Supply and Use 15 Solar Radiation Management 16 National and Human Security 17 Designing, Implementing, and Evaluating Climate Policies References Appendix A: America's Climate Choices: Membership Lists Appendix B: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change: Statement of Task Appendix C: Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change: Biographical Sketches Appendix D: Uncertainty Terminology Appendix E: The United States Global Change Research Program Appendix F: Geoengineering Options to Respond to Climate Change: Steps to Establish a Research Agenda Appendix G: Acronyms and Initialisms
Summary 1(18)
What We Know about Climate Change,
3(2)
A New Era of Climate Change Research,
5(3)
Recommendations,
8(11)
Part I
1 Introduction: Science For Understanding And Responding To Climate Change
19(8)
Scientific Learning About Climate Change,
20(2)
The New Era of Climate Change Science: Research for Understanding and Responding to Climate Change,
22(2)
Report Overview,
24(3)
2 What We Know About Climate Change And Its Interactions With People And Ecosystems
27(56)
Changes in the Climate System,
29(13)
Sea Level Rise and the Coastal Environment,
42(5)
Freshwater Resources,
47(4)
Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, and Biodiversity,
51(7)
Agriculture, Fisheries, and Food Production,
58(4)
Public Health,
62(3)
Cities and the Built Environment,
65(2)
Transportation,
67(3)
Energy Supply and Use,
70(3)
Solar Radiation Management,
73(4)
National and Human Security,
77(3)
Designing, Implementing, and Evaluating Climate Policies,
80(3)
3 A New Era Of Climate Change Research
83(8)
Complexities of Climate Change,
83(4)
Responding to Climate Risks,
87(1)
Implications for the Nation's Climate Research Enterprise,
87(4)
4 Integrative Themes For Climate Change Research
91(60)
Theme 1: Climate Forcings, Feedbacks, Responses, and Thresholds in the Earth System,
92(9)
Theme 2: Climate-Related Human Behaviors and Institutions,
101(6)
Theme 3: Vulnerability and Adaptation Analyses of Coupled Human-Environment Systems,
107(6)
Theme 4: Research to Support Strategies for Limiting Climate Change,
113(8)
Theme 5: Effective Information and Decision-Support Systems,
121(5)
Theme 6: Integrated Climate Observing Systems,
126(12)
Theme 7:Improved Projections, Analyses, and Assessments,
138(11)
Chapter Conclusion,
149(2)
5 Recommendations For Meeting The Challenge Of Climate Change Research
151(32)
An Integrative, Interdisciplinary, Decision-Relevant Research Program
152(3)
Setting Priorities,
155(3)
Infrastructural Elements of the Research Program,
158(4)
Organizing the Research,
162(9)
Broader Partnerships,
171(6)
Capacity Building,
177(3)
A New Era of Climate Change Research,
180(3)
Part II: Technical
Chapters
6 Changes In The Climate System
183(52)
Factors Influencing Earth's Climate,
184(17)
Observed Climate Change,
201(15)
Future Climate Change,
216(12)
Research Needs,
228(7)
7 Sea Level Rise And The Coastal Environment
235(22)
Observed Sea Level Changes,
236(2)
Causes of Sea Level Rise,
238(5)
Projections of Future Sea Level Rise,
243(4)
Impacts of Sea Level Rise and Other Climate Changes on Coastal Environments,
247(4)
Responding to Sea Level Rise,
251(1)
Research Needs,
252(5)
8 Freshwater Resources
257(14)
Sensitivity of Freshwater Resources to Climate Change,
258(1)
Historical and Future Changes in Freshwater,
259(7)
Managing Freshwater in a Changing Climate,
266(1)
Research Needs,
267(4)
9 Ecosystems, Ecosystem Services, And Biodiversity
271(20)
Terrestrial Ecosystems,
273(7)
Marine Ecosystems,
280(8)
Research Needs,
288(3)
10 Agriculture, Fisheries, And Food Production
291(18)
Crop Production,
292(4)
Livestock Production,
296(1)
Fisheries and Aquaculture Production,
297(3)
Science to Support Limiting Climate Change by Modifying Agricultural and Fishery Systems,
300(3)
Science to Support Adaptation in Agricultural Systems,
303(2)
Food Security,
305(1)
Research Needs,
306(3)
11 Public Health
309(14)
Extreme Temperatures and Thermal Stress,
311(2)
Severe Weather,
313(1)
Infectious Diseases,
314(1)
Air Quality,
314(3)
Other Health Effects of Climate Change,
317(1)
Protecting Vulnerable Populations,
318(1)
Research Needs,
319(4)
12 Cities And The Built Environment
323(10)
Role of Cities in Driving Climate Change,
324(2)
Impacts of Climate Change on Cities,
326(2)
Science to Support Limiting Future Climate Change,
328(1)
Science to Support Adapting to Climate Change,
329(1)
Research Needs,
330(3)
13 Transportation
333(16)
Role of Transportation in Driving Climate Change,
334(2)
Reducing Transportation-Related Greenhouse Gas Emissions,
336(6)
Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation,
342(1)
Science to Support Adapting to Climate Change in the Transportation Sector,
342(2)
Research Needs,
344(5)
14 Energy Supply And Use
349(28)
Energy Consumption,
350(2)
Reductions in Energy Demand,
352(1)
Energy Efficiency Improvements,
353(1)
Energy Sources that Reduce Emissions of Greenhouse Gases,
354(12)
Carbon Dioxide Removal Approaches,
366(2)
Energy Carriers, Transmission, and Storage,
368(1)
Science to Support Technology Deployment,
369(1)
Likely Impacts of Climate Change on Energy System Operations,
369(4)
Science to Support Adapting to Climate Change,
373(1)
Research Needs
374(3)
15 Solar Radiation Management
377(12)
History of Solar Radiation Management Proposals,
378(2)
Proposed Solar Radiation Management Approaches,
380(2)
Possible Unintended Consequences,
382(2)
Governance issues,
384(1)
Ethical Issues,
384(1)
Research Needs,
385(4)
16 National And Human Security
389(12)
The Relationship Between Climate and National Security,
392(3)
Treaty Verification,
395(1)
The Relationship Between Climate and Human Security,
396(2)
Research Needs,
398(3)
17 Designing, Implementing, And Evaluating Climate Policies
401(74)
Types of Climate Policies and Agreements,
402(4)
Research Challenges Associated with Policy Design and Implementation,
406(10)
Research Needs,
416(5)
References 421(54)
Appendixes
A America's Climate Choices: Membership Lists
475(4)
B Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change: Statement of Task
479(2)
C Panel on Advancing the Science of Climate Change: Biographical Sketches
481(10)
D Uncertainty Terminology
491(2)
E The United States Global Change Research Program
493(4)
F Geoengineering Options to Respond to Climate Change: Steps to Establish a Research Agenda (A Workshop to Provide Input to the America's Climate Choices Study)
497(4)
G Acronyms and Initialisms
501