Preface |
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vii | |
About The Author |
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x | |
Chapter 1 Difference Equations |
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1 | (46) |
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1 | (1) |
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1 | (6) |
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2 Difference Equations and Their Solutions |
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7 | (3) |
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10 | (4) |
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4 An Alternative Solution Methodology |
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14 | (4) |
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18 | (4) |
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6 Solving Homogeneous Difference Equations |
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22 | (9) |
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7 Particular Solutions for Deterministic Processes |
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31 | (3) |
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8 The Method of Undetermined Coefficients |
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34 | (6) |
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40 | (3) |
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43 | (1) |
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44 | (3) |
Chapter 2 Stationary Time-Series Models |
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47 | (71) |
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1 Stochastic Difference Equation Models |
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47 | (3) |
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50 | (1) |
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51 | (4) |
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4 Stationarity Restrictions for an ARMA (p, g) Model |
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55 | (5) |
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5 The Autocorrelation Function |
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60 | (4) |
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6 The Partial Autocorrelation Function |
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64 | (3) |
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7 Sample Autocorrelations of Stationary Series |
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67 | (9) |
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8 BoxJenkins Model Selection |
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76 | (3) |
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9 Properties of Forecasts |
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79 | (9) |
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10 A Model of the Interest Rate Spread |
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88 | (8) |
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96 | (6) |
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12 Parameter Instability and Structural Change |
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102 | (7) |
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109 | (3) |
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14 Summary and Conclusions |
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112 | (1) |
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113 | (5) |
Chapter 3 Modeling Volatility |
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118 | (63) |
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1 Economic Time Series: The Stylized Facts |
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118 | (5) |
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2 ARCH and GARCH Processes |
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123 | (7) |
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3 ARCH and GARCH Estimates of Inflation |
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130 | (4) |
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4 Three Examples of GARCH Models |
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134 | (7) |
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141 | (2) |
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143 | (3) |
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7 Additional Properties of GARCH Processes |
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146 | (6) |
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8 Maximum Likelihood Estimation of GARCH Models |
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152 | (2) |
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9 Other Models of Conditional Variance |
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154 | (4) |
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10 Estimating the NYSE U.S. 100 Index |
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158 | (7) |
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165 | (7) |
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12 Volatility Impulse Responses |
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172 | (2) |
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13 Summary and Conclusions |
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174 | (2) |
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176 | (5) |
Chapter 4 Models With Trend |
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181 | (78) |
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1 Deterministic and Stochastic Trends |
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181 | (8) |
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189 | (6) |
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3 Unit Roots and Regression Residuals |
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195 | (5) |
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200 | (6) |
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206 | (4) |
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6 Examples of the DickeyFuller Test |
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210 | (5) |
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7 Extensions of the DickeyFuller Test |
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215 | (12) |
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227 | (8) |
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9 Power and the Deterministic Regressors |
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235 | (3) |
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238 | (5) |
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243 | (4) |
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12 Trends and Univariate Decompositions |
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247 | (7) |
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13 Summary and Conclusions |
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254 | (1) |
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255 | (4) |
Chapter 5 Multiequation Time-Series Models |
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259 | (84) |
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281 | |
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2 ADLs and Transfer Functions |
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267 | (10) |
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3 An ADL of Terrorism in Italy |
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277 | (4) |
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4 Limits to Structural Multivariate Estimation |
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281 | (4) |
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5 Introduction to VAR Analysis |
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285 | (5) |
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6 Estimation and Identification |
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290 | (4) |
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7 The Impulse Response Function |
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294 | (9) |
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303 | (6) |
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9 Example of a Simple VAR: Domestic and Transnational Terrorism |
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309 | (4) |
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313 | (4) |
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11 Examples of Structural Decompositions |
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317 | (4) |
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12 Overidentified Systems |
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321 | (4) |
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13 The BlanchardQuah Decomposition |
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325 | (6) |
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14 Decomposing Real and Nominal Exchange Rates: An Example |
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331 | (4) |
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15 Summary and Conclusions |
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335 | (2) |
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337 | (6) |
Chapter 6 Cointegration And Error-Correction Models |
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343 | (64) |
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1 Linear Combinations of Integrated Variables |
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344 | (7) |
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2 Cointegration and Common Trends |
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351 | (2) |
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3 Cointegration and Error Correction |
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353 | (7) |
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4 Testing for Cointegration: The EngleGranger Methodology |
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360 | (4) |
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5 Illustrating the EngleGranger Methodology |
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364 | (6) |
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6 Cointegration and Purchasing Power Parity |
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370 | (3) |
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7 Characteristic Roots, Rank, and Cointegration |
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373 | (7) |
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380 | (9) |
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9 Illustrating the Johansen Methodology |
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389 | (4) |
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10 Error-Correction and ADL Tests |
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393 | (4) |
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11 Comparing the Three Methods |
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397 | (3) |
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12 Summary and Conclusions |
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400 | (1) |
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401 | (6) |
Chapter 7 Nonlinear Models And Breaks |
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407 | (72) |
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1 Linear Versus Nonlinear Adjustment |
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408 | (2) |
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2 Simple Extensions of the ARMA Model |
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410 | (3) |
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3 Testing for Nonlinearity |
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413 | (7) |
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4 Threshold Autoregressive Models |
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420 | (7) |
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5 Extensions of the TAR Model |
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427 | (6) |
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433 | (6) |
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7 Smooth Transition Models |
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439 | (6) |
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8 Other Regime Switching Models |
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445 | (4) |
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9 Estimates of STAR Models |
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449 | (4) |
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10 Generalized Impulse Responses and Forecasting |
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453 | (8) |
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11 Unit Roots and Nonlinearity |
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461 | (5) |
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12 More on Endogenous Structural Breaks |
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466 | (8) |
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13 Summary and Conclusions |
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474 | (1) |
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475 | (4) |
Index |
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479 | |