About the Editors |
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xix | |
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xxi | |
Preface |
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xxv | |
Chapter Abstracts |
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xxviii | |
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Part I Managing National Security Risk and Policy Programs |
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1 | (2) |
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1 On the "Influence of Scenarios to Priorities" in Risk and Security Programs |
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3 | (1) |
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3 | (1) |
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4 | (2) |
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1.3 Canonical Questions Guiding Development of Risk Programs |
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6 | (2) |
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1.3.1 Canonical Question I: Scope |
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6 | (1) |
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1.3.2 Canonical Question II: Operational Design |
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7 | (1) |
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1.3.3 Canonical Question III: Evaluation |
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7 | (1) |
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1.4 Scenario-Based Preferences |
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8 | (1) |
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9 | (3) |
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1.6 Demonstration of Methods |
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12 | (8) |
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1.7 Discussion and Conclusions |
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20 | (5) |
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22 | (1) |
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22 | (3) |
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2 Survey of Risk Analytic Guidelines Across the Government |
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25 | (44) |
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2.1 Department of Defense (DOD) Overview |
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25 | (8) |
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2.1.1 Joint Risk Analysis Methodology (JRAM) for the Chairman's Risk Assessment (CRA) |
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26 | (3) |
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2.1.2 Mission Assurance (MA): Risk Assessment and Management for DOD Missions |
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29 | (2) |
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2.1.3 Risk Management Guide for DOD Acquisition |
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31 | (2) |
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2.2 Department of Justice (DOJ) |
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33 | (3) |
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2.3 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Overview |
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36 | (7) |
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2.3.1 EPA Risk Leadership |
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36 | (1) |
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2.3.2 EPA Risk Assessment Methodology and Guidelines |
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37 | (3) |
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2.3.3 Risk Assessment Case Studies |
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40 | (3) |
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2.3 A Risk Assessment Challenges of EPA |
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43 | (1) |
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2.3.5 Review of EPA Risk Assessment/Risk Management Methodologies |
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43 | (1) |
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2.4 National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA): Overview |
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44 | (5) |
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2.4.1 NASA Risk Leadership |
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44 | (1) |
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2.4.2 Critical Steps in NASA Risk Assessment/Risk Management |
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44 | (4) |
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2.4.3 Risk Assessment/Risk Management Challenges of NASA |
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48 | (1) |
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2.4.4 Review of NASA Risk Assessment/Risk Management Methodologies |
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49 | (1) |
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2.5 Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Overview |
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49 | (6) |
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51 | (1) |
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2.5.2 Critical Steps in NRC Risk Assessment/Risk Management |
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52 | (1) |
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2.5.3 Risk Assessment/Risk Management Challenges of NRC |
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53 | (1) |
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2.5.4 Review of NRC Risk Assessment/Risk Management Methodologies |
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54 | (1) |
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2.6 International Standards Organization (ISO) Overview |
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55 | (3) |
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57 | (1) |
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2.6.2 Critical Steps in ISO Risk Assessment/Risk Management |
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57 | (1) |
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2.6.3 Risk Assessment/Risk Management Challenges of ISO |
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58 | (1) |
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58 | (3) |
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2.7.1 Australia Leadership |
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59 | (1) |
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2.7.2 Critical Steps in Australia Risk Assessment/Risk Management |
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60 | (1) |
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2.7.3 Risk Assessment/Risk Management Challenges of Australia |
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61 | (1) |
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61 | (8) |
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61 | (1) |
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2.8.2 Critical Steps in UK Risk Assessment/Risk Management |
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62 | (3) |
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2.8.3 Risk Assessment/Risk Management Challenges of the United Kingdom |
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65 | (1) |
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65 | (1) |
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65 | (4) |
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3 An Overview of Risk Modeling Methods and Approaches for National Security |
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69 | (32) |
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69 | (1) |
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3.2 Homeland Security Risk Landscape and Missions |
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70 | (3) |
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71 | (1) |
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71 | (1) |
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3.2.3 Risk Definitions and Interpretations from DHS Risk Lexicon |
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72 | (1) |
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73 | (15) |
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3.3.1 1960s to 1990s: Focus on Foundational Concepts |
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73 | (2) |
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3.3.2 The 2000s: Increased Focus on Multi-hazard Risks Including Terrorism |
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75 | (3) |
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3.3.3 2009 to Present: Emerging Emphasis on System Resilience and Complexity |
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78 | (10) |
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3.4 Modeling Approaches for Risk Elements |
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88 | (2) |
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88 | (1) |
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3.4.2 Vulnerability Modeling |
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88 | (1) |
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3.4.2.1 Survey-Based Methods |
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88 | (1) |
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89 | (1) |
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3.4.2.3 Network-Theoretic Approaches |
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89 | (1) |
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3.4.2.4 Structural Analysis and Reliability Theory |
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89 | (1) |
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3.4.3 Consequence Modeling |
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89 | (1) |
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89 | (1) |
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89 | (1) |
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3.4.4 Risk-Informed Decision Making |
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90 | (1) |
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3.5 Modeling Perspectives for Further Research |
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90 | (4) |
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3.5.1 Systemic Risk and Resilience Within a Unified Framework |
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90 | (1) |
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3.5.2 Characterizing Cyber and Physical Infrastructure System Behaviors and Hazards |
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91 | (1) |
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3.5.3 Utilizing "Big" Data or Lack of Data for Generating Risk and Resilience Analytics |
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91 | (1) |
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3.5.4 Conceptual Multi-scale, Multi-hazard Modeling Framework |
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92 | (2) |
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94 | (7) |
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95 | (1) |
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95 | (6) |
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4 Comparative Risk Rankings in Support of Homeland Security Strategic Plans |
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101 | (624) |
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101 | (1) |
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4.2 Conceptual Challenges in Comparative Risk Ranking |
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102 | (1) |
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4.3 Practical Challenges in Comparative Ranking of Homeland Security Risks |
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103 | (1) |
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4.3.1 Choosing a Risk Set |
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104 | (1) |
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4.3.1.1 Lessons from the DMRR on Hazard Set Selection |
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105 | (1) |
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4.3.2 Identifying Attributes to Consider |
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105 | (2) |
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4.3.2.1 Lessons from the DMRR on Attribute Selection |
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107 | (2) |
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4.3.3 Assessing Each Risk Individually |
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109 | (2) |
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4.3.3.1 Lessons from the DMRR on Assessing Individual Homeland Security Risks |
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111 | (1) |
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4.3.4 Combining Individual Risks to Develop a Comparative Risk Ranking |
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112 | (2) |
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4.3.4.1 Lessons from the DMRR on Comparing Homeland Security Risks |
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114 | (2) |
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4.4 Policy Relevance to Strategic-Level Homeland Security Risk Rankings |
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116 | (609) |
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4.4.1 Insights into Homeland Security Risk Rankings |
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116 | (2) |
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4.4.2 Risk vs. Risk Reduction |
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118 | (2) |
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120 | (1) |
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120 | (5) |
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5 A Data Science Workflow for Discovering Spatial Patterns Among Terrorist Attacks and Infrastructure |
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125 | (1) |
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125 | (1) |
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5.2 The Data: Global Terrorism Database |
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126 | (1) |
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5.3 The Tools: Exploring Data Interactively Using a Custom Shiny App |
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127 | (3) |
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5.4 Example: Using the App to Explore ISIL Attacks |
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130 | (4) |
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5.5 The Models: Statistical Models for Terrorist Event Data |
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134 | (1) |
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5.6 More Data: Obtaining Regional Infrastructure Data to Build Statistical Models |
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135 | (2) |
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5.7 A Model: Determining the Significance of Infrastructure on the Likelihood of an Attack |
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137 | (1) |
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138 | (1) |
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5.9 Case Study: Jammu and Kashmir Region of India |
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139 | (9) |
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5.9.1 The Model Revisited: Accounting for Many Regions with No Recorded Attacks |
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147 | (1) |
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5.9.2 Investigating the Effect of Outliers |
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147 | (1) |
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5.9.3 The Insight: What Have We Learned? |
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147 | (1) |
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148 | (1) |
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148 | (3) |
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Part II Strengthening Ports of Entry |
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151 | (2) |
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6 Effects of Credibility of Retaliation Threats in Deterring Smuggling of Nuclear Weapons |
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153 | (1) |
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153 | (5) |
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6.2 Extending Prior Game-Based Model |
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158 | (1) |
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6.3 Comparing the Game Trees |
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158 | (3) |
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161 | (1) |
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6.5 Solution to the Extended Model |
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162 | (1) |
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6.6 Comparing the Solutions in Prior Game-Based Model and This Study |
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163 | (1) |
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6.7 Illustration of the Extended Model Using Real Data |
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164 | (1) |
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6.8 Conclusion and Future Research Work |
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165 | (6) |
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167 | (4) |
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7 Disutility of Mass Relocation After a Severe Nuclear Accident |
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171 | (22) |
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171 | (3) |
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174 | (3) |
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7.3 Trade-Offs Between Cancer Fatalities and Relocation |
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177 | (2) |
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7.4 Risk-Neutral Disutility Model |
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179 | (1) |
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7.5 Risk-Averse Disutility Model |
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179 | (3) |
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7.6 Disutility Model with Interaction Effects |
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182 | (3) |
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185 | (5) |
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190 | (3) |
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191 | (2) |
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8 Scheduling Federal Air Marshals Under Uncertainty |
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193 | (28) |
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193 | (3) |
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196 | (4) |
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8.2.1 Commercial Aviation Industry |
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196 | (2) |
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8.2.2 Homeland Security and the Federal Air Marshals Service |
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198 | (1) |
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8.2.3 Approximate Dynamic Programming |
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199 | (1) |
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8.3 Air Marshal Resource Allocation Model |
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200 | (4) |
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200 | (2) |
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202 | (1) |
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203 | (1) |
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8.4 Stochastic Dynamic Programming Formulation |
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204 | (3) |
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205 | (1) |
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205 | (1) |
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8.4.3 Post-decision State |
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206 | (1) |
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8.4.4 Exogenous Information |
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206 | (1) |
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8.4.5 State Transition Function |
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206 | (1) |
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8.4.6 Contribution Function |
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206 | (1) |
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207 | (1) |
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8.4.8 Bellman's Optimality Equations |
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207 | (1) |
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8.5 Phases of Stochastic Dynamic Programming |
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207 | (3) |
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207 | (1) |
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208 | (1) |
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208 | (1) |
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8.5.2.2 Approximation Methods |
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208 | (1) |
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209 | (1) |
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210 | (1) |
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8.6 Integrated Allocation Model |
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210 | (1) |
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211 | (6) |
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211 | (1) |
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8.7.2 Results from Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model |
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211 | (1) |
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8.7.3 Sensitivity Analysis |
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212 | (2) |
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214 | (3) |
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217 | (4) |
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218 | (1) |
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218 | (3) |
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Part III Securing Critical Cyber Assets |
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221 | (2) |
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9 Decision Theory for Network Security: Active Sensing for Detection and Prevention of Data Exfiltration |
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223 | (1) |
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223 | (3) |
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224 | (2) |
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9.2 Background and Related Work |
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226 | (3) |
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226 | (2) |
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9.2.2 Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) |
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228 | (1) |
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229 | (3) |
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230 | (2) |
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232 | (7) |
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232 | (2) |
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9.4.2 Abstract Observations |
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234 | (1) |
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9.4.3 VD-POMDP Factored Representation |
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234 | (2) |
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236 | (3) |
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239 | (2) |
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241 | (6) |
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241 | (1) |
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9.6.2 DETER Testbed Simulation |
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241 | (1) |
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242 | (2) |
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244 | (2) |
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246 | (1) |
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9.7 Game Theoretic Extensions |
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247 | (2) |
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248 | (1) |
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9.8 Conclusion and Future Work |
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249 | (4) |
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249 | (1) |
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249 | (4) |
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10 Measurement of Cyber Resilience from an Economic Perspective |
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253 | (22) |
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253 | (1) |
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254 | (3) |
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10.2.1 Basic Concepts of Cyber Resilience |
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254 | (1) |
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10.2.2 Basic Concepts of Economic Resilience |
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254 | (1) |
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10.2.3 Economic Resilience Metrics |
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255 | (2) |
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10.3 Cyber System Resilience Tactics |
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257 | (10) |
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10.4 Resilience for Cyber-Related Sectors |
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267 | (2) |
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10.4.1 Resilience in the Manufacturing of Cyber Equipment |
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267 | (1) |
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10.4.2 Resilience in the Electricity Sector |
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268 | (1) |
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269 | (6) |
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270 | (5) |
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11 Responses to Cyber Near-Misses: A Scale to Measure Individual Differences |
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275 | (20) |
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275 | (2) |
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11.2 Scale Development and Analysis Outline |
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277 | (1) |
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278 | (6) |
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278 | (1) |
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11.3.1.1 Cyber Near-Miss Appraisal Scale (CNMAS) |
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278 | (3) |
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11.3.1.2 Measures of Discriminant Validity |
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281 | (1) |
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11.3.1.3 Measure of Predictive Validity |
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281 | (1) |
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11.3.1.4 Participants and Procedures |
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281 | (3) |
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284 | (7) |
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11.4.1 Dimensionality and Reliability |
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284 | (1) |
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11.4.2 Item Response Analysis |
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284 | (3) |
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11.4.3 Differential Item Functioning (DIF) |
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287 | (2) |
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11.4.4 Effects of Demographic Variables |
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289 | (1) |
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11.4.5 Discriminant Validity |
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290 | (1) |
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11.4.6 Predictive Validity |
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290 | (1) |
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291 | (4) |
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292 | (1) |
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292 | (3) |
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Part IV Enhancing Disaster Preparedness and Infrastructure Resilience |
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295 | (2) |
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12 An Interactive Web-Based Decision Support System for Mass Dispensing, Emergency Preparedness, and Biosurveillance |
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297 | (1) |
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297 | (2) |
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12.2 System Architecture and Design |
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299 | (2) |
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12.3 System Modules and Functionalities |
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301 | (11) |
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12.3.1 Interactive User Experience |
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301 | (1) |
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12.3.2 Geographical Boundaries |
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301 | (1) |
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12.3.3 Network of Service, Locations, and Population Flow and Assignment |
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302 | (2) |
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12.3.4 ZIP Code and Population Composition |
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304 | (1) |
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12.3.5 Multimodality Dispensing and Public-Private Partnership |
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305 | (3) |
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12.3.6 POD Layout Design and Resource Allocation |
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308 | (1) |
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12.3.7 Radiological Module |
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309 | (1) |
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309 | (1) |
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12.3.9 Regional Information Sharing, Reverse Reporting, Tracking and Monitoring, and Resupply |
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310 | (1) |
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12.3.10 Multilevel End-User Access |
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311 | (1) |
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12 A Biodefense, Pandemic Preparedness Planning, and Radiological and Large-Scale Disaster Relief Efforts |
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312 | (13) |
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12.4.1 Biodefense Mass Dispensing Regional Planning |
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312 | (3) |
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12.4.2 Real-Life Disaster Response Effort |
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315 | (1) |
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315 | (1) |
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12.4.2.2 RealOpt-Regional and RealOpt-CRC for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster |
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316 | (2) |
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318 | (1) |
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12.5 Challenges and Conclusions |
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319 | (6) |
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321 | (1) |
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321 | (4) |
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13 Measuring Critical Infrastructure Risk, Protection, and Resilience in an All-Hazards Environment |
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325 | (32) |
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13.1 Introduction to Critical Infrastructure Risk Assessment |
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325 | (1) |
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13.2 Motivation for Critical Infrastructure Risk Assessments |
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326 | (1) |
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13.2.1 Unrest pre-September 2001 |
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326 | (1) |
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13.2.2 Post-911 Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience |
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326 | (1) |
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13.3 Decision Analysis Methodologies for Creating Critical Infrastructure Risk Indicators |
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327 | (4) |
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328 | (1) |
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13.3.2 Illustrative Calculations for an Index: Buying a Car |
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328 | (3) |
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13.4 An Application of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Consequence, and Resilience Assessment |
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331 | (19) |
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13.4.1 Protection and Vulnerability |
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334 | (1) |
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13.4.1.1 Physical Security |
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335 | (1) |
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13.4.1.2 Security Management |
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335 | (1) |
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335 | (2) |
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13.4.1.4 Information Sharing |
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337 | (1) |
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13.4.1.5 Security Activity Background |
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338 | (1) |
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339 | (2) |
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341 | (1) |
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13.4.2.2 Mitigation Measures |
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341 | (1) |
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13.4.2.3 Response Capabilities |
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342 | (1) |
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13.4.2.4 Recovery Mechanisms |
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343 | (1) |
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343 | (2) |
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13.4.3.1 Human Consequences |
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345 | (1) |
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13.4.3.2 Economic Consequences |
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346 | (1) |
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13.4.3.3 Government Mission/Public Health/Psychological Consequences |
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346 | (1) |
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13.4.3.4 Cascading Impact Consequences |
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347 | (2) |
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13.4.4 Risk Indices Comparison |
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349 | (1) |
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13.5 Infrastructure Interdependencies |
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350 | (2) |
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13.6 What's Next for Critical Infrastructure Risk Assessments |
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352 | (5) |
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354 | (3) |
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14 Risk Analysis Methods in Resilience Modeling: An Overview of Critical Infrastructure Applications |
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357 | (24) |
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357 | (1) |
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358 | (3) |
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358 | (1) |
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359 | (1) |
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14.2.3 Critical Infrastructure Systems |
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360 | (1) |
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14.3 Modeling the Resilience of Critical Infrastructure Systems |
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361 | (7) |
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361 | (1) |
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361 | (1) |
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362 | (1) |
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14.3.1.3 Dams, Levees, and Waterways |
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363 | (1) |
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363 | (1) |
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14.3.1.5 Emergency Services |
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363 | (1) |
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363 | (1) |
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364 | (1) |
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14.3.1.8 Water/Wastewater |
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364 | (1) |
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365 | (1) |
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365 | (2) |
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367 | (1) |
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14.3.2.3 Interdependencies |
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367 | (1) |
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14.4 Assessing Risk in Resilience Models |
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368 | (2) |
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14.4.1 Probabilistic Methods |
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368 | (1) |
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14.4.2 Uncertainty Modeling |
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369 | (1) |
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14.4.3 Simulation-Based Approaches |
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369 | (1) |
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14.4.4 Data-Driven Analytics |
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370 | (1) |
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14.5 Opportunities and Challenges |
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370 | (2) |
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370 | (1) |
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371 | (1) |
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372 | (9) |
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373 | (8) |
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15 Optimal Resource Allocation Model to Prevent, Prepare, and Respond to Multiple Disruptions, with Application to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Hurricane Katrina |
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381 | (24) |
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381 | (2) |
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383 | (3) |
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15.2.1 Resource Allocation Model |
|
|
383 | (2) |
|
15.2.2 Extension to Uncertain Parameters |
|
|
385 | (1) |
|
15.3 Application: Deepwater Horizon and Hurricane Katrina |
|
|
386 | (11) |
|
15.3.1 Parameter Estimation |
|
|
386 | (1) |
|
15.3.1.1 Oil Spill Parameters |
|
|
387 | (1) |
|
15.3.1.2 Hurricane Parameters |
|
|
388 | (3) |
|
|
391 | (3) |
|
15.3.3 Sensitivity Analysis on Economic Impacts |
|
|
394 | (1) |
|
15.3.4 Model with Uncertain Effectiveness |
|
|
395 | (2) |
|
|
397 | (8) |
|
|
398 | (7) |
|
16 Inoperability Input-Output Modeling of Electric Power Disruptions |
|
|
405 | (22) |
|
|
|
|
|
405 | (2) |
|
16.2 Risk Analysis of Natural and Man-Caused Electric Power Disruptions |
|
|
407 | (1) |
|
16.3 Risk Management Insights for Disruptive Events |
|
|
408 | (3) |
|
16.4 Modeling the Ripple Effects for Disruptive Events |
|
|
411 | (1) |
|
16.5 Inoperability Input-Output Model |
|
|
412 | (4) |
|
|
412 | (1) |
|
16.5.2 Sector Inoperability |
|
|
413 | (1) |
|
16.5.3 Interdependency Matrix |
|
|
413 | (1) |
|
16.5.4 Demand Perturbation |
|
|
414 | (1) |
|
16.5.5 Economic Resilience |
|
|
414 | (1) |
|
|
415 | (1) |
|
16.6 Sample Electric Power Disruptions Scenario Analysis for the United States |
|
|
416 | (5) |
|
16.7 Summary and Conclusions |
|
|
421 | (6) |
|
|
422 | (5) |
|
17 Quantitative Assessment of Transportation Network Vulnerability with Dynamic Traffic Simulation Methods |
|
|
427 | (16) |
|
|
|
|
427 | (2) |
|
17.2 Dynamic Transportation Network Vulnerability Assessment |
|
|
429 | (2) |
|
17.3 Sources of Input for Dynamic Transportation Network Vulnerability Assessment |
|
|
431 | (1) |
|
|
432 | (7) |
|
17.4.1 Example I: Simple Network |
|
|
432 | (5) |
|
17.4.2 Example II: University of Massachusetts Dartmouth Evacuation |
|
|
437 | (2) |
|
17.5 Conclusion and Future Research |
|
|
439 | (4) |
|
|
440 | (3) |
|
18 Infrastructure Monitoring for Health and Security |
|
|
443 | (24) |
|
|
|
443 | (4) |
|
|
447 | (1) |
|
|
447 | (12) |
|
18.3.1 Underlying Principles of Some of the Popular Sensors Listed in Table 18.1 |
|
|
451 | (1) |
|
|
451 | (1) |
|
|
451 | (5) |
|
18.3.1.3 Piezoelectric Sensors |
|
|
456 | (1) |
|
18.3.1.4 Piezoresistive Sensors |
|
|
456 | (1) |
|
18.3.1.5 Laser Vibrometer |
|
|
456 | (1) |
|
18.3.1.6 Acoustic Emission Sensing |
|
|
457 | (1) |
|
|
458 | (1) |
|
18.3.2 Selection of a Sensor |
|
|
459 | (1) |
|
18.4 Capturing and Transmitting Signals |
|
|
459 | (2) |
|
|
461 | (1) |
|
|
462 | (2) |
|
18.7 Cyber-Physical Systems |
|
|
464 | (1) |
|
|
464 | (3) |
|
|
465 | (2) |
|
19 Exploring Metaheuristic Approaches for Solving the Traveling Salesman Problem Applied to Emergency Planning and Response |
|
|
467 | (20) |
|
|
|
|
|
19.1 The Traveling Salesman Problem |
|
|
467 | (1) |
|
|
467 | (1) |
|
19.1.2 Computational Complexity |
|
|
467 | (1) |
|
19.1.3 Solution Algorithms |
|
|
468 | (1) |
|
19.1.4 Emergency Response Application |
|
|
468 | (1) |
|
19.2 Emergency Planning and Response as a Traveling Salesman Problem |
|
|
468 | (1) |
|
19.3 Metaheuristic Approaches |
|
|
469 | (13) |
|
19.3.1 Simulated Annealing |
|
|
470 | (1) |
|
|
470 | (1) |
|
|
471 | (2) |
|
19.3.1.3 Case Study Results |
|
|
473 | (1) |
|
|
473 | (1) |
|
|
473 | (1) |
|
|
474 | (2) |
|
19.3.2.3 Case Study Results |
|
|
476 | (1) |
|
19.3.3 Genetic Algorithms |
|
|
476 | (1) |
|
|
476 | (2) |
|
|
478 | (1) |
|
19.3.3.3 Case Study Results |
|
|
479 | (1) |
|
19.3.4 Ant Colony Optimization |
|
|
479 | (1) |
|
|
479 | (1) |
|
19.3.4.2 Stochastic Solution Construction |
|
|
480 | (1) |
|
19.3.4.3 Pheromone Update |
|
|
480 | (1) |
|
|
481 | (1) |
|
19.3.4.5 Case Study Results |
|
|
481 | (1) |
|
|
482 | (1) |
|
|
482 | (5) |
|
|
484 | (3) |
Index |
|
487 | |