|
|
xv | |
|
|
xxxi | |
Preface |
|
xxxiii | |
Contributors |
|
xxxvii | |
Abbreviations |
|
xli | |
Acknowledgements |
|
xlix | |
|
|
1 | (128) |
|
The coupled monsoon system |
|
|
3 | (64) |
|
|
3 | (2) |
|
Modeling and predicting monsoon variability |
|
|
5 | (1) |
|
The development of a holistic view of the monsoon |
|
|
6 | (17) |
|
Impacts of remote ocean variability on the monsoon |
|
|
6 | (9) |
|
Regional ocean variability |
|
|
15 | (1) |
|
Impacts of regional ocean variability |
|
|
15 | (1) |
|
Intraseasonal variability and the large-scale monsoon |
|
|
16 | (2) |
|
Emergence of the concept of the monsoon as a coupled system |
|
|
18 | (4) |
|
|
22 | (1) |
|
Coupled aspects of the monsoon annual cycle |
|
|
23 | (13) |
|
Macroscale forcing of the monsoon annual cycle |
|
|
25 | (4) |
|
The surface heating-SST tendency paradox |
|
|
29 | (3) |
|
The role of ocean dynamics in the annual heat balance of the Indian Ocean |
|
|
32 | (3) |
|
Regulation of the annual cycle: an ocean-atmosphere feedback system |
|
|
35 | (1) |
|
Interannual variability of the coupled monsoon system |
|
|
36 | (17) |
|
Modes of interannual variability in the monsoon |
|
|
37 | (9) |
|
Interannual modes in ocean heat transport |
|
|
46 | (5) |
|
Intraseasonal ocean heat transport |
|
|
51 | (1) |
|
Interannual regulation of the monsoon |
|
|
51 | (2) |
|
Coupled aspects of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations |
|
|
53 | (10) |
|
|
54 | (3) |
|
MISO and ocean heat transport |
|
|
57 | (4) |
|
MISO and the onset of the monsoon |
|
|
61 | (1) |
|
Intraseasonal variability and the self-regulation of the monsoon system |
|
|
62 | (1) |
|
Holistic theory of monsoon system |
|
|
63 | (2) |
|
Conclusions and some remaining questions |
|
|
65 | (1) |
|
|
66 | (1) |
|
The Asian monsoon: Global perspectives |
|
|
67 | (22) |
|
|
67 | (2) |
|
|
69 | (1) |
|
The mean seasonal monsoon-related variations |
|
|
69 | (9) |
|
|
69 | (2) |
|
The atmospheric circulations |
|
|
71 | (7) |
|
Diabatic processes: heat sources and sinks |
|
|
78 | (3) |
|
|
81 | (3) |
|
Discussion and conclusions |
|
|
84 | (3) |
|
|
87 | (2) |
|
|
89 | (40) |
|
|
89 | (2) |
|
|
91 | (2) |
|
Mid-latitude circulations |
|
|
91 | (1) |
|
|
92 | (1) |
|
Severe east Asian winter monsoon weather |
|
|
93 | (9) |
|
|
93 | (1) |
|
|
94 | (8) |
|
Maritime Continent monsoon |
|
|
102 | (10) |
|
Annual cycles and seasonal transitions |
|
|
102 | (5) |
|
Interactions of cold surges, synoptic disturbances, and MJO |
|
|
107 | (3) |
|
Diurnal cycle of convection |
|
|
110 | (2) |
|
Australian summer monsoon |
|
|
112 | (6) |
|
Evolution and intraseasonal variability |
|
|
112 | (3) |
|
Triggers of monsoon onset |
|
|
115 | (3) |
|
Modulation of synoptic weather |
|
|
118 | (1) |
|
|
118 | (9) |
|
East Asian winter monsoon |
|
|
118 | (2) |
|
Relationship of the Maritime Continent/Australian monsoon with ENSO |
|
|
120 | (5) |
|
Long-term variability of Australian summer monsoon |
|
|
125 | (2) |
|
|
127 | (2) |
|
|
129 | (200) |
|
Synoptic systems and weather |
|
|
131 | (72) |
|
|
131 | (13) |
|
Rainy seasons of the Asian monsoon region and the onset of the summer monsoon |
|
|
131 | (3) |
|
The south Asian monsoon region |
|
|
134 | (5) |
|
The east Asian monsoon region |
|
|
139 | (5) |
|
|
144 | (20) |
|
The south Asian monsoon region |
|
|
144 | (10) |
|
The east Asian monsoon region |
|
|
154 | (10) |
|
|
164 | (9) |
|
Floods and droughts in the monsoon season |
|
|
173 | (11) |
|
The south Asian monsoon region |
|
|
174 | (4) |
|
The east Asian monsoon region |
|
|
178 | (6) |
|
Cold waves and cold surges |
|
|
184 | (10) |
|
Local severe storms and mesoscale convective complex events |
|
|
194 | (9) |
|
Intraseasonal variability |
|
|
203 | (56) |
|
|
203 | (3) |
|
|
206 | (11) |
|
Madden--Julian Oscillation |
|
|
206 | (3) |
|
|
209 | (5) |
|
|
214 | (2) |
|
|
216 | (1) |
|
Synoptic organization and remote influences |
|
|
217 | (2) |
|
Low-frequency variability |
|
|
219 | (9) |
|
|
221 | (5) |
|
Rectification onto low-frequency variability |
|
|
226 | (2) |
|
Theory and physical processes |
|
|
228 | (14) |
|
|
228 | (4) |
|
|
232 | (5) |
|
|
237 | (5) |
|
|
242 | (4) |
|
Prediction and predictability |
|
|
246 | (10) |
|
|
247 | (2) |
|
Dynamical forecast models |
|
|
249 | (1) |
|
|
250 | (4) |
|
|
254 | (2) |
|
|
256 | (1) |
|
|
257 | (2) |
|
Interannual variability of the Asian monsoon |
|
|
259 | (36) |
|
|
259 | (1) |
|
|
260 | (8) |
|
|
260 | (2) |
|
|
262 | (3) |
|
Dominant modes associated with major monsoon indices |
|
|
265 | (3) |
|
Dominant impacting factors |
|
|
268 | (12) |
|
|
268 | (8) |
|
|
276 | (3) |
|
Basic flow and broad-scale climate phenomena |
|
|
279 | (1) |
|
Tropospheric biennial oscillation and the monsoon |
|
|
280 | (7) |
|
Monsoon and global climate variability |
|
|
287 | (5) |
|
Role of the monsoon in ENSO and atmospheric teleconnection |
|
|
287 | (1) |
|
Asian monsoon and Pacific-American climate |
|
|
288 | (4) |
|
|
292 | (1) |
|
|
293 | (2) |
|
The Asian monsoon: Interdecadal variability |
|
|
295 | (34) |
|
|
295 | (1) |
|
Interdecadal variability of the south Asian summer monsoon |
|
|
296 | (7) |
|
Interdecadal variability of the east Asian summer monsoon |
|
|
303 | (2) |
|
Interdecadal variability of the south Asian winter monsoon |
|
|
305 | (1) |
|
Mechanism for the interdecadal variability of the ENSO-monsoon relationship |
|
|
305 | (10) |
|
Decadal changes in monsoon intraseasonal activity |
|
|
315 | (7) |
|
Decadal changes in monsoon predictability |
|
|
322 | (1) |
|
Discussion and conclusion |
|
|
323 | (3) |
|
|
326 | (1) |
|
|
326 | (3) |
|
Data used and method of analysis |
|
|
326 | (3) |
|
|
329 | (222) |
|
|
331 | (26) |
|
|
331 | (1) |
|
|
332 | (15) |
|
Distribution, organization, and structure of tropical convection |
|
|
332 | (4) |
|
Latent heating profiles and the monsoon |
|
|
336 | (6) |
|
|
342 | (2) |
|
Convective momentum transports |
|
|
344 | (1) |
|
Diurnal cycle of convection |
|
|
345 | (2) |
|
Topographically forced local circulations |
|
|
347 | (2) |
|
|
349 | (3) |
|
Surface-atmosphere interactions |
|
|
352 | (1) |
|
Gravity currents and gravity waves |
|
|
353 | (1) |
|
Coastally trapped disturbances |
|
|
354 | (1) |
|
|
355 | (1) |
|
Summary and outstanding issues |
|
|
355 | (1) |
|
|
356 | (1) |
|
Large-scale atmospheric dynamics |
|
|
357 | (60) |
|
|
357 | (1) |
|
|
358 | (6) |
|
|
359 | (2) |
|
General dispersion relation |
|
|
361 | (2) |
|
Low-frequency equatorial Rossby waves |
|
|
363 | (1) |
|
Mixed Rossby-gravity waves |
|
|
364 | (1) |
|
|
364 | (7) |
|
|
364 | (5) |
|
The vorticity and thermodynamic equation perspective |
|
|
369 | (2) |
|
Monsoon and subtropical anticyclones |
|
|
371 | (7) |
|
Winter hemisphere subtropical anticyclone: the effects of mountains |
|
|
372 | (2) |
|
Processes determining the summer monsoon and subtropical anticyclones |
|
|
374 | (2) |
|
Mechanisms of the summer monsoon and subtropical high |
|
|
376 | (2) |
|
The Tibetan High and the tropical easterly jet |
|
|
378 | (4) |
|
Formation and maintenance of the Tibetan High |
|
|
379 | (1) |
|
The upper level easterly jet and its impact on the precipitation distribution |
|
|
379 | (1) |
|
A possible positive feedback between the Tibetan High/easterly jet and the monsoon convection |
|
|
380 | (2) |
|
Cross-equatorial flow and inertial instability |
|
|
382 | (5) |
|
Steady flow in an imposed pressure gradient |
|
|
382 | (1) |
|
Inertial instability and the location of the ITCZ |
|
|
383 | (4) |
|
The effects of mean flows on equatorial waves and forced motion |
|
|
387 | (8) |
|
The effects of vertical shear on the Rossby wave structure and propagation |
|
|
388 | (3) |
|
Extratropical barotropic response induced by equatorial heating |
|
|
391 | (1) |
|
Asymmetric Rossby wave response to equatorial symmetric heating |
|
|
392 | (2) |
|
Northward propagation of Rossby waves due to monsoon easterly shear |
|
|
394 | (1) |
|
Wave energy accumulation in the equatorial westerly duct |
|
|
395 | (1) |
|
Convectively coupled equatorial waves and the tropical intraseasonal oscillation |
|
|
395 | (8) |
|
|
396 | (1) |
|
Equatorial boundary layer convergence |
|
|
397 | (2) |
|
A theoretical model of friction CID for the MJO |
|
|
399 | (1) |
|
Dynamics of MJO and monsoon intraseasonal oscillation |
|
|
400 | (2) |
|
Roles of atmosphere-ocean interaction and other processes |
|
|
402 | (1) |
|
|
403 | (3) |
|
|
403 | (1) |
|
Rossby wave source associated with tropical convection |
|
|
404 | (2) |
|
|
406 | (9) |
|
Vertical modes and shallow-water equations |
|
|
406 | (3) |
|
|
409 | (2) |
|
Theoretical model for study of mean flow effects on equatorial waves |
|
|
411 | (1) |
|
A one and a half layer model including interactive diabatic heating |
|
|
412 | (3) |
|
|
415 | (2) |
|
Variation of the Asian monsoon water vapor budget: Interaction with the global-scale modes |
|
|
417 | (42) |
|
|
417 | (2) |
|
Theoretical background of the water vapor budget |
|
|
419 | (1) |
|
Contribution of the Asian monsoon to the global hydrological cycle |
|
|
420 | (14) |
|
|
420 | (3) |
|
|
423 | (11) |
|
Modulation of the water vapor transport and rainfall in the east Asian monsoon region by global modes |
|
|
434 | (20) |
|
|
435 | (4) |
|
|
439 | (8) |
|
|
447 | (7) |
|
Summary and concluding remarks |
|
|
454 | (3) |
|
|
457 | (2) |
|
Land-atmosphere interaction |
|
|
459 | (20) |
|
Fundamental processes in the seasonal cycle |
|
|
459 | (3) |
|
Land surface quantities controlling monsoons |
|
|
462 | (11) |
|
The connection between the land surface, the atmospheric boundary layer, and cloud/precipitation processes |
|
|
473 | (1) |
|
The possible impact of anthropogenic landuse/land cover changes on the Asian monsoon climate |
|
|
474 | (1) |
|
The feedback processes through the energy and water cycles |
|
|
475 | (2) |
|
|
477 | (2) |
|
Interactions between the Asian monsoon and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation |
|
|
479 | (34) |
|
Air-sea interactions related to ENSO |
|
|
479 | (4) |
|
Precipitation anomalies in the Asian-Australian monsoon region during ENSO events |
|
|
483 | (4) |
|
ENSO-related variability in the Indian Ocean basin |
|
|
487 | (7) |
|
Atmospheric and SST anomalies |
|
|
487 | (2) |
|
Atmospheric response to anomalous tropical heating |
|
|
489 | (3) |
|
Atmosphere-ocean feedbacks in the IO basin |
|
|
492 | (2) |
|
ENSO-related variability over east Asia, Australia and the western Pacific |
|
|
494 | (1) |
|
Evolution of the Philippine Sea anticyclone anomaly |
|
|
495 | (5) |
|
Atmospheric preconditions in JJA(0) |
|
|
495 | (3) |
|
Synoptic development during PSAC onset |
|
|
498 | (1) |
|
Air-sea feedbacks in MAM(1) |
|
|
499 | (1) |
|
Impact of the Asian monsoon on ENSO |
|
|
500 | (9) |
|
Effects of the Indian summer monsoon on the development of El Nino |
|
|
500 | (3) |
|
Effects of the western North Pacific monsoon on the turnabout of the ENSO cycle |
|
|
503 | (4) |
|
Effects of the east Asian winter monsoon in triggering the onset of El Nino |
|
|
507 | (2) |
|
Discussions and outstanding issues |
|
|
509 | (2) |
|
|
509 | (1) |
|
|
509 | (1) |
|
Effects of atmosphere-ocean interaction |
|
|
510 | (1) |
|
Effects of atmosphere-land interactions |
|
|
510 | (1) |
|
Roles of intraseasonal oscillations |
|
|
511 | (1) |
|
|
511 | (2) |
|
Effects of the Tibetan Plateau |
|
|
513 | (38) |
|
|
513 | (4) |
|
|
514 | (1) |
|
|
515 | (1) |
|
Early progress of Tibetan Plateau research in China |
|
|
515 | (2) |
|
Large-scale features of the atmosphere near the Tibetan Plateau |
|
|
517 | (10) |
|
Large-scale flow and temperature fields |
|
|
517 | (4) |
|
Mechanical effects of the Tibetan Plateau on large-scale motion |
|
|
521 | (1) |
|
Winter cold surge and the role of the Tibetan Plateau |
|
|
522 | (1) |
|
Summertime negative vorticity source over the Tibetan Plateau |
|
|
523 | (4) |
|
Heat sources on the Tibetan Plateau |
|
|
527 | (12) |
|
Various estimates of heating over the Tibetan Plateau |
|
|
527 | (3) |
|
Heating over the Tibetan Plateau and the onset of Asian Monsoon |
|
|
530 | (3) |
|
|
533 | (6) |
|
Thermal influences of the Tibetan Plateau on the seasonal transition of circulation and Asian monsoon onset |
|
|
539 | (7) |
|
Sensible heat driven air-pump over the Tibetan Plateau |
|
|
539 | (3) |
|
Thermal impacts of the Tibetan Plateau on seasonal transition and Asian monsoon onset |
|
|
542 | (4) |
|
|
546 | (3) |
|
|
549 | (2) |
|
|
551 | (62) |
|
Seasonal climate prediction of Indian summer monsoon |
|
|
553 | (32) |
|
|
553 | (3) |
|
Weather and climate modeling of the monsoon using regional models |
|
|
556 | (2) |
|
|
556 | (1) |
|
|
557 | (1) |
|
Very high-resolution mesoscale regional models |
|
|
558 | (1) |
|
Monsoon forecasts using global models |
|
|
558 | (7) |
|
Sensitivity to global model resolution |
|
|
558 | (1) |
|
Month-long forecasts of monsoonal ISOs and MJOs |
|
|
559 | (6) |
|
Monsoon forecasts and sensitivity to physical parameterization schemes |
|
|
565 | (9) |
|
|
566 | (1) |
|
Parameterization of the planetary boundary layer |
|
|
567 | (1) |
|
Parameterization of cumulus convection |
|
|
568 | (5) |
|
Organization of convection and monsoon forecasts |
|
|
573 | (1) |
|
Radiative interactions for monsoon modeling |
|
|
573 | (1) |
|
Multimodel forecasts for weather and climate |
|
|
574 | (6) |
|
Performance of multimodels for weather and seasonal climate forecasts |
|
|
576 | (4) |
|
|
580 | (2) |
|
Appendix 14.1: outline of the FSU global spectral model |
|
|
582 | (1) |
|
Appendix 14.2: definitions of statistical parameters (skill metrics) |
|
|
582 | (3) |
|
Dynamic seasonal prediction and predictability of the monsoon |
|
|
585 | (28) |
|
|
586 | (3) |
|
|
586 | (1) |
|
Current dynamic seasonal predictions |
|
|
587 | (2) |
|
|
589 | (2) |
|
Limit of seasonal predictability |
|
|
591 | (4) |
|
Potential predictability of various models |
|
|
595 | (3) |
|
Prediction skill after error correction |
|
|
598 | (7) |
|
Error correction and verification methods |
|
|
598 | (4) |
|
Predictability after error correction |
|
|
602 | (3) |
|
Multimodel potential predictability |
|
|
605 | (3) |
|
Coupled model predictability |
|
|
608 | (3) |
|
Summary and concluding remarks |
|
|
611 | (1) |
|
|
612 | (1) |
|
|
613 | (72) |
|
Extending the historical record by proxy |
|
|
615 | (16) |
|
|
615 | (3) |
|
Internal and external forcing |
|
|
618 | (1) |
|
|
619 | (3) |
|
Earth-orbital variability |
|
|
622 | (5) |
|
The Indian summer monsoon |
|
|
622 | (1) |
|
The east Asian summer and winter monsoons |
|
|
623 | (4) |
|
Centennial and millennial variability |
|
|
627 | (2) |
|
|
629 | (2) |
|
Asian monsoons in the future |
|
|
631 | (20) |
|
Introduction: global aspects |
|
|
631 | (3) |
|
|
634 | (10) |
|
|
634 | (6) |
|
|
640 | (2) |
|
|
642 | (1) |
|
ENSO-monsoon relationship |
|
|
643 | (1) |
|
|
644 | (3) |
|
|
647 | (2) |
|
|
649 | (2) |
|
The Asian monsoon -- agriculture and economy |
|
|
651 | (34) |
|
|
651 | (3) |
|
Variability of rice production in Asia and its relation to variation in rainfall |
|
|
654 | (6) |
|
Climatic aspects of rice production |
|
|
655 | (1) |
|
Observed variation of rice production: decadal-scale variation |
|
|
655 | (1) |
|
Interannual variation of the rice yield and cultivated area |
|
|
656 | (1) |
|
Relation between variation of rice production and variation of rainfall |
|
|
657 | (3) |
|
Some facets of the monsoon variability over the Indian region |
|
|
660 | (8) |
|
Extremes of seasonal rainfall: droughts and floods |
|
|
661 | (2) |
|
Subseasonal patterns of monsoon anomalies |
|
|
663 | (1) |
|
Dry spells -- breaks in the monsoon |
|
|
664 | (1) |
|
Seasonal transitions: onset and retreat |
|
|
665 | (3) |
|
Role of the monsoon in rice cultivation in the state of Andhra Pradesh in India |
|
|
668 | (6) |
|
The impact of local and remote anomalies in seasonal rainfall |
|
|
668 | (2) |
|
Impact of the timing of the onset of the monsoon |
|
|
670 | (4) |
|
Impact of the monsoon on the gross domestic product -- the Indian case |
|
|
674 | (3) |
|
Discussion on the use of meteorological information and predictions for enhancement of agricultural production in a variable climate |
|
|
677 | (6) |
|
|
679 | (1) |
|
|
679 | (4) |
|
|
683 | (2) |
Bibliography |
|
685 | (96) |
Index |
|
781 | |