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E-grāmata: Atmospheric Sciences: Entering the Twenty-First Century

  • Formāts: 384 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 22-Oct-1998
  • Izdevniecība: National Academies Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780309174299
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  • Formāts: 384 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 22-Oct-1998
  • Izdevniecība: National Academies Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780309174299
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Technology has propelled the atmospheric sciences from a fledgling discipline to a global enterprise. Findings in this field shape a broad spectrum of decisionswhat to wear outdoors, whether aircraft should fly, how to deal with the issue of climate change, and more.



This book presents a comprehensive assessment of the atmospheric sciences and offers a vision for the future and a range of recommendations for federal authorities, the scientific community, and education administrators.



How does atmospheric science contribute to national well-being? In the context of this question, the panel identifies imperatives in scientific observation, recommends directions for modeling and forecasting research, and examines management issues, including the growing problem of weather data availability.



Five subdisciplinesphysics, chemistry, dynamics and weather forecasting, upper atmosphere and near-earth space physics, climate and climate changeand their status as the science enters the twenty-first century are examined in detail, including recommendations for research. This readable book will be of interest to public-sector policy framers and private-sector decisionmakers as well as researchers, educators, and students in the atmospheric sciences.

Table of Contents



Front Matter Summary Part I: 1 Introduction 2 Contributions of the Atmospheric Sciences to the National Well-Being 3 Scientific Imperatives and Recommendations for the Decades Ahead 4 Leadership and Management Challenges in the Decades Ahead Part II: 1 Atmospheric Physics Research Entering the Twenty-First Century 2 Atmospheric Chemistry Research Entering the Twenty-First Century 3 Atmospheric Dynamics and Weather Forecasting Research Entering the Twenty-First Century 4 Upper Atmosphere and Near-Earth Space Research Entering the Twenty-First Century 5 Climate and Climate Change Research Entering the Twenty-First Century References Appendix A Acronyms and Abbreviations Appendix B Listing of Reports by the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences and the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Since 1958 Index
SUMMARY 1(12)
PART I 13(50)
1 INTRODUCTION
13(4)
Four Centuries of Progress
14(1)
The Atmospheric Sciences and Other Disciplines
14(1)
Looking Forward to the Twenty-First Century
15(2)
2 CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES TO THE NATIONAL WELL-BEING
17(11)
Protection of Life and Property
17(5)
Need for Forecasts and Warnings
18(3)
Progress in Weather Services
21(1)
Maintaining Environmental Quality
22(2)
Chlorofluorocarbons and Ozone
22(1)
Greenhouse Gases and Global Change
22(1)
Aerosols
23(1)
Role of Atmospheric Sciences in Environmental Issues
23(1)
Enhancing National Economic Vitality
24(2)
Benefits of Weather and Climate Information
24(2)
Strengthening Fundamental Understanding
26(2)
3 SCIENTIFIC IMPERATIVES AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE DECADES AHEAD
28(18)
Atmospheric Science Imperative 1: Optimize and Integrate Observation Capabilities
29(8)
New Observing Opportunities
30(1)
Requirements for Optimizing and Integrating Observing Systems
31(2)
Observing System Simulation Experiments
33(1)
Atmospheric Science Imperative 2: Develop New Observation Capabilities
33(1)
Water in the Atmosphere
34(1)
Wind Observations
35(1)
Observations in the Stratosphere
36(1)
Observations in Near-Earth Space
37(1)
Atmospheric Research Recommendation 1: Resolve Interactions at Atmospheric Boundaries and Among Different Scales of Flow
37(4)
Surface Properties
38(1)
Long-Term Interactios with the Oceans
38(1)
Clouds and Their Consequences
39(1)
Aerosols and Atmospheric Chemistry
40(1)
The Fundamental Problem of Nonlinearity
40(1)
Atmospheric Research Recommendation 2: Extend a Disciplined Forecast Process to New Areas
41(2)
Atmospheric Research Recommendation 3: Initiate Studies of Emerging Issues
43(3)
Climate, Weather and Health
44(1)
Water Resources
44(1)
Rapidly Increasing Emissions to the Atmosphere
45(1)
4 LEADERSHIP AND MANAGEMENT CHALLENGES IN THE DECADES AHEAD
46(17)
Leadership and Management Recommendation 1: Develop a Strategy for Providing Atmospheric Information
46(4)
A Changing System for Providing Weather Services
47(1)
Prospects for Atmospheric Information
48(1)
Implications of Distributed Atmospheric Information Services
49(1)
Leadership and Management Recommendation 2: Ensure Access to Atmospheric Information
50(1)
Leadership and Management Recommendation 3: Assess Benefits and Costs
51(7)
Federal Funding of Atmospheric Research and Services
52(6)
Leadership and Management Planning
58(5)
PART II DISCIPLINARY ASSESSMENTS 63(262)
1 ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS RESEARCH ENTERING THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
63(44)
Summary
63(5)
Major Scientific Goals and Challenges
63(1)
Key Components of the Scientific Strategy
64(1)
Initiatives to Support the Strategies
65(1)
Expected Benefits and Contributions to the National Well-Being
65(1)
Recommended Atmospheric Physics Research
66(2)
Introduction
68(3)
Mission
68(1)
Major Research Themes and Past Accomplishments
69(1)
Perspective for the Future
70(1)
Scientific Challenges and Questions
71(12)
Atmospheric Radiation
71(3)
Cloud Physics
74(3)
Atmospheric Electricity
77(2)
Boundary Layer Meteorology
79(2)
Small-Scale Atmospheric Dynamics
81(2)
Disciplinary Research Challenges
83(23)
Contributions to National Goals
106(1)
2 ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY RESEARCH ENTERING THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
107(62)
Summary
107(4)
Major Scientific Questions and Challenge
108(1)
Overarching Research Challenges
109(1)
Disciplinary Research Challenges
110(1)
Infrastructural Initiatives
110(1)
Expected Benefits and Contribution to the National Well-Being
111(1)
Introduction and Overview
111(29)
The Mission
112(2)
Insights of the Twentieth Century
114(7)
Disciplinary Research Challenges
121(11)
Overarching Research Challenges
132(3)
Infrastructural Initiatives
135(5)
Conclusion
140(1)
The Environmentally Important Atmospheric Species: Scientific Questions and Research Strategies
140(29)
Stratospheric Ozone
140(7)
Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases
147(10)
Photochemical Oxidants
157(5)
Atmospheric Aerosols
162(4)
Toxics and Nutrient
166(3)
3 ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS AND WEATHER FORECASTING RESEARCH ENTERING THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
169(30)
Summary
169(6)
Emerging Research Opportunities
170(3)
Key Recommendations
173(2)
Introduction
175(22)
Basic Research Foci
175(12)
Technique Developments
187(6)
Technological Developments
193(4)
Conclusion
197(2)
4 UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND NEAR-EARTH SPACE RESEARCH ENTERING THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
199(73)
Summary
199(5)
Major Scientific Goals and Challenges
200(1)
Key Components of the Scientific Strategy
200(1)
Scientific Requirements for the Coming Decade(s)
200(2)
Expected Benefits and Contributions to the National Well-Being
202(1)
Upper-Atmosphere and Near-Earth Space Research Tasks
202(2)
Introduction
204(7)
The Sun
204(1)
Interplanetary Space
204(1)
The Magnetosphere
205(1)
The Ionosphere-Upper Atmosphere
206(1)
The Middle Atmosphere
206(2)
Cosmic Rays
208(1)
Research Priorities
208(3)
Stratospheric Processes Important for Climate and the Biosphere
211(14)
Stratospheric Ozone
213(5)
Volcanic Effects
218(1)
Solar Effects
219(1)
Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Effects
220(1)
Atmospheric Effects of Aircraft
220(3)
The Role of the Stratosphere in Climate and Weather Prediction
223(1)
Key Initatives
223(2)
Measures of Success
225(1)
Space Weather
225(20)
Scientific Background
228(9)
Critical Science Questions
237(4)
History and Current Research Activities
241(1)
Key Initiatives
242(3)
Middle-Upper Atmosphere Global Change
245(11)
Scientific Background
245(4)
Critical Science Questions
249(1)
Key Initiatives
250(4)
Contributions to the Solution of Societal Problems
254(1)
Measures of Success
255(1)
Solar Influences
256(16)
Solar Energy Output over a Solar Cycle
257(2)
Separating Solar and Anthropogenic Effects
259(4)
Solar Influences on the Earth's Upper and Middle Atmosphere
263(2)
Physical Basis of the Solar Activity Cycle
265(3)
Long-Term Changes in Solar Behavior: Solar-Type Stars
268(2)
Key Initiatives
270(1)
Contributions to the Solution of Societal Problems
271(1)
5 CLIMATE AND CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH ENTERING THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY
272(53)
Summary
272(4)
Introduction
276(2)
Mission Statement
278(1)
Perspectives for the Twenty-First Century
279(23)
Insights of the Twentieth Century
279(17)
The Scientific Questions
296(1)
Key Drivers for Research in the Twenty-First Century
297(5)
Objectives and Requirements for Climate Research
302(16)
Objective 1
302(5)
Objective 2
307(2)
Objective 3
309(1)
Objective 4
310(1)
Objective 5
311(3)
Objective 6
314(2)
Objective 7
316(2)
Priorities for Climate Research
318(2)
Build a Permanent Climate Observing System
319(1)
Extend the Instrumented Climate Record Through Development of Integrated Historical and Proxy Data Sets
320(1)
Continue and Expand Diagnostic Efforts and Process Study Research to Elucidate Key Climate Variability and Change Processes
320(1)
Construct and Evaluate Climate Models That Are Increasingly Comprehensive, Incorporating All Major Components of the Climate System
321(1)
Cross-Cutting Requirements
322(2)
Education
322(1)
Institutional Arrangements
323(1)
Contributions to National Goals and Needs
324(1)
REFERENCES 325(16)
APPENDIX A Acronyms and Abbreviations 341(5)
APPENDIX B Listing of Reports by the Committee on Atmospheric Sciences and the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Since 1958 346(3)
INDEX 349


Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council