Foreword |
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vii | |
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Ministerial Address |
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ix | |
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Preface |
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xi | |
Acknowledgement |
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xiii | |
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SECTION I Key Vulnerabilities of the Climate System and Critical Thresholds |
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1 | (70) |
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Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change |
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3 | (4) |
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An Overview of 'Dangerous' Climate Change |
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7 | (18) |
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The Antarctic Ice Sheet and Sea Level Rise |
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25 | (4) |
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The Role of Sea-Level Rise and the Greenland Ice Sheet in Dangerous Climate Change: Implications for the Stabilisation of Climate |
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29 | (8) |
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Assessing the Risk of a Collapse of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation |
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37 | (12) |
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Towards a Risk Assessment for Shutdown of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation |
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49 | (6) |
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Towards the Probability of Rapid Climate Change |
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55 | (10) |
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Reviewing the Impact of Increased Atmospheric CO2 on Oceanic pH and the Marine Ecosystem |
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65 | (6) |
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SECTION II General Perspectives on Dangerous Impacts |
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71 | (62) |
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Critical Levels of Greenhouse Gases, Stabilization Scenarios, and Implications for the Global Decisions |
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73 | (8) |
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Perspectives on 'Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference'; or How to Operationalize Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change |
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81 | (12) |
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Impacts of Global Climate Change at Different Annual Mean Global Temperature Increases |
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93 | (40) |
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SECTION III Key Vulnerabilities for Ecosystems and Biodiversity |
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133 | (30) |
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Rapid Species' Responses to Changes in Climate Require Stringent Climate Protection Targets |
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135 | (8) |
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Climate Change-induced Ecosystem Loss and its Implications for Greenhouse Gas Concentration Stabilisation |
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143 | (4) |
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Tropical Forests and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Current Conditions and Future Scenarios |
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147 | (8) |
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Conditions for Sink-to-Source Transitions and Runaway Feedbacks from the Land Carbon Cycle |
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155 | (8) |
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SECTION IV Socio-Economic Effects: Key Vulnerabilities for Water Resources, Agriculture, Food and Settlements |
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163 | (88) |
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Human Dimensions Implications of Using Key Vulnerabilities for Characterizing 'Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference' |
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165 | (2) |
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Climate Change and Water Resources: A Global Perspective |
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167 | (10) |
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Relationship Between Increases in Global Mean Temperature and Impacts on Ecosystems, Food Production, Water and Socio-Economic Systems |
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177 | (10) |
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Assessing the Vulnerability of Crop Productivity to Climate Change Thresholds Using an Integrated Crop-Climate Model |
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187 | (8) |
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Climate Stabilisation and Impacts of Sea-Level Rise |
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195 | (20) |
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SECTION V Regional Perspectives: Polar Regions, Mid-Latitudes, Tropics and Sub-Tropics |
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203 | |
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Arctic Climate Impact Assessment |
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205 | |
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Evidence and Implications of Dangerous Climate Change in the Arctic |
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215 | (4) |
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Approaches to Defining Dangerous Climate Change: An Australian Perspective |
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219 | (8) |
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Regional Assessment of Climate Impacts on California under Alternative Emission Scenarios -- Key Findings and Implications for Stabilisation |
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227 | (8) |
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Impacts of Climate Change in the Tropics: The African Experience |
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235 | (8) |
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Key Vulnerabilities and Critical Levels of Impacts in East and Southeast Asia |
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243 | (8) |
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SECTION VI Emission Pathways |
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251 | (82) |
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Probabilistic Assessment of 'Dangerous' Climate Change and Emissions Scenarios: Stakeholder Metrics and Overshoot Pathways |
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253 | (12) |
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What Does a 2°C Target Mean for Greenhouse Gas Concentrations? A Brief Analysis Based on Multi-Gas Emission Pathways and Several Climate Sensitivity Uncertainty Estimates |
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265 | (16) |
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Observational Constraints on Climate Sensitivity |
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281 | (10) |
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Of Dangerous Climate Change and Dangerous Emission Reduction |
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291 | (8) |
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Multi-Gas Emission Pathways for Meeting the EU 2°C Climate Target |
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299 | (12) |
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Why Delaying Emission Cuts is a Gamble |
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311 | (6) |
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Risks Associated with Stabilisation Scenarios and Uncertainty in Regional and Global Climate Change Impacts |
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317 | (6) |
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Impact of Climate-Carbon Cycle Feedbacks on Emissions Scenarios to Achieve Stabilisation |
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323 | (10) |
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SECTION VII Technological Options |
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333 | (52) |
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How, and at What Costs, can Low-Level Stabilization be Achieved? -- An Overview |
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337 | (10) |
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Stabilization Wedges: An Elaboration of the Concept |
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347 | (8) |
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Costs and Technology Role for Different Levels of CO2 Concentration Stabilization |
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355 | (6) |
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Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change by Inducing Technological Progress: Scenarios Using a Large-Scale Econometric Model |
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361 | (12) |
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Carbon Cycle Management with Biotic Fixation and Long-term Sinks |
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373 | (6) |
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Scope for Future CO2 Emission Reductions from Electricity Generation through the Deployment of Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies |
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379 | (6) |
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The Technology of Two Degrees |
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385 | |
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