Atjaunināt sīkdatņu piekrišanu

E-grāmata: Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations: Macroeconomics Meets Psychology

(Universität Erfurt, Germany)
  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 13-Aug-2020
  • Izdevniecība: Cambridge University Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781108698030
Citas grāmatas par šo tēmu:
  • Formāts - PDF+DRM
  • Cena: 36,87 €*
  • * ši ir gala cena, t.i., netiek piemērotas nekādas papildus atlaides
  • Ielikt grozā
  • Pievienot vēlmju sarakstam
  • Šī e-grāmata paredzēta tikai personīgai lietošanai. E-grāmatas nav iespējams atgriezt un nauda par iegādātajām e-grāmatām netiek atmaksāta.
Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations: Macroeconomics Meets PsychologyPalielināt
  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 13-Aug-2020
  • Izdevniecība: Cambridge University Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781108698030
Citas grāmatas par šo tēmu:

DRM restrictions

  • Kopēšana (kopēt/ievietot):

    nav atļauts

  • Drukāšana:

    nav atļauts

  • Lietošana:

    Digitālo tiesību pārvaldība (Digital Rights Management (DRM))
    Izdevējs ir piegādājis šo grāmatu šifrētā veidā, kas nozīmē, ka jums ir jāinstalē bezmaksas programmatūra, lai to atbloķētu un lasītu. Lai lasītu šo e-grāmatu, jums ir jāizveido Adobe ID. Vairāk informācijas šeit. E-grāmatu var lasīt un lejupielādēt līdz 6 ierīcēm (vienam lietotājam ar vienu un to pašu Adobe ID).

    Nepieciešamā programmatūra
    Lai lasītu šo e-grāmatu mobilajā ierīcē (tālrunī vai planšetdatorā), jums būs jāinstalē šī bezmaksas lietotne: PocketBook Reader (iOS / Android)

    Lai lejupielādētu un lasītu šo e-grāmatu datorā vai Mac datorā, jums ir nepieciešamid Adobe Digital Editions (šī ir bezmaksas lietotne, kas īpaši izstrādāta e-grāmatām. Tā nav tas pats, kas Adobe Reader, kas, iespējams, jau ir jūsu datorā.)

    Jūs nevarat lasīt šo e-grāmatu, izmantojot Amazon Kindle.

As one of the first texts to take a behavioral approach to macroeconomic expectations, this book introduces a new way of doing economics. Rötheli uses cognitive psychology in a bottom-up method of modeling macroeconomic expectations. His research is based on laboratory experiments and historical data, which he extends to real-world situations. Pattern extrapolation is shown to be the key to understanding expectations of inflation and income. The quantitative model of expectations is used to analyze the course of inflation and nominal interest rates in a range of countries and historical periods. The model of expected income is applied to the analysis of business cycle phenomena such as the great recession in the United States. Data and spreadsheets are provided for readers to do their own computations of macroeconomic expectations. This book offers new perspectives in many areas of macro and financial economics.

Recenzijas

'The real rate of interest - the nominal rate adjusted for expected inflation - is a key variable for our understanding of macroeconomic fluctuations, growth, and history. Tobias Rötheli combines behavioral and experimental, lab-based economics to provide new and improved historical estimates of expected inflation as well as novel methods for forecasting it. His book is one of the most exciting, important, and original contributions to economic analysis in years. It will change the way much future research in economics is done.' Richard Sylla, New York University 'Despite the methodological success of the rational expectations hypothesis, abundant empirical work shows that its soundness as a theoretical assumption is weak. In this book, Tobias Rötheli argues that a better approach might be to look at what science has to say about how expectations are actually formed. Drawing on behavioral economics and psychology, he proposes that inflationary expectations are formed in ways that comport well with our strong ability to recognize - perhaps even 'over recognize' - patterns. He then shows such pattern-based expectations outperform rational expectations models in a variety of ways. This book will provide ample grist for researchers eager to incorporate new advances in behavioral economics and psychology into macroeconomics.' David C. Rose, author of The Moral Foundation of Economic Behavior and Why Culture Matters Most 'Rötheli's book was long overdue. Ever since Katona, the significance of expectations for modeling the economy has been known. The last few decades saw the recognition of the importance of empirical psychological study of economic behavior, as opposed to a perspective centered on derivation from first principles. Rötheli investigates how expectations are formed, and analyzes the consequences of his findings for key economic domains. The Behavioral Economics of Inflation Expectations should be read by anyone who needs to understand economic forecasting by the public.' David Leiser, Ben Gurion University of the Negev 'This monograph will be of greatest value to graduate students and researchers focusing on the topic ' S. J. Chapman Jr., Choice 'Rötheli's theory of expectations heads deep into the wilderness by taking cognitive sciences as the first principles. The book is very well-written and expertly guides the reader through Rötheli's paradigm for how people form expectations and impact the economy, inflation, and interest rates the book is thought provoking, with a novel look at a critical topic in economics.' William Branch, Journal of Economic Literature

Papildus informācija

A behavioral approach to modeling macroeconomic expectations.
List of Figures xii
List of Tables xiv
Preface xvii
1 Patterns and Expectations 1(15)
1.1 Introduction
1(3)
1.2 Pattern-Based Expectations and Variants of Rational Expectations
4(5)
1.3 Relation to Survey- and Market-Based Measures of Expectations
9(2)
1.4 Pattern-Based Expectations and Issues of Method
11(2)
1.5 The Outline of the Book
13(3)
2 Extrapolation and Expectations 16(6)
2.1 Introduction
16(1)
2.2 Extrapolation in Economics
17(1)
2.3 Extrapolation in Psychology
17(3)
2.4 Extrapolation in Forecasting
20(1)
2.5 Summary and Conclusions
21(1)
3 Eliciting Expectations under Laboratory Conditions 22(25)
3.1 Introduction
22(1)
3.2 Basic Elicitation Procedures and Data
22(12)
3.3 Expectations of Central Tendency and Probability Ranges
34(7)
3.4 Summary and Conclusions
41(1)
Appendix Instructions for the Basic Treatment (i), Translated from German
41(2)
Appendix The Instructions for the Probabilistic Treatment (Hi), Translated from German
43(4)
4 Features of the Laboratory Data 47(6)
4.1 Introduction
47(1)
4.2 The Role of Economic Context
47(2)
4.3 Comparison of Elicited Expectations across Treatments
49(1)
4.4 Pattern-Based versus Linear Extrapolation
50(2)
4.5 Summary and Conclusions
52(1)
5 Similarity Matching and Scaling the Experimental Data 53(16)
5.1 Introduction
53(1)
5.2 Experimental Evidence on Similarity Matching
54(2)
5.3 Modeling Similarity Matching
56(1)
5.4 Scaling the Laboratory Data to Historical Data
57(5)
5.5 Computing Historical Time Series of Expected Inflation
62(3)
5.6 Summary and Conclusions
65(1)
Appendix Instructions for the Similarity Matching Experiment, Translated from German
65(1)
Appendix A Routine for the Computation of Pattern- Based Expectations
66(3)
6 Pattern Extrapolation and Expectations Measured by Consumer Surveys 69(9)
6.1 Introduction
69(1)
6.2 Forecast Performance of Different Measures of Inflation Expectations
69(2)
6.3 Competing Explanations of How Consumers Form Expectations
71(6)
6.4 Summary and Conclusions
77(1)
7 Heterogeneity and Uncertainty of Inflation Expectations 78(7)
7.1 Introduction
78(1)
7.2 Modeling Heterogeneity of Inflation Expectations
79(3)
7.3 Modeling Uncertainty of Expected Inflation
82(1)
7.4 Summary and Conclusions
83(2)
8 Inflation Dynamics 85(9)
8.1 Introduction
85(1)
8.2 The New Keynesian Phillips Curve
85(4)
8.3 Long-Term Inflation Expectations and the Issue of Anchoring
89(2)
8.4 Summary and Conclusions
91(1)
Appendix New Keynesian Phillips Curve Estimates for Germany
92(2)
9 Explaining the Course of Interest Rates 94(16)
9.1 Introduction
94(3)
9.2 Effects of the Heterogeneity of Expected Inflation
97(4)
9.3 Effects of the Uncertainty of Expected Inflation
101(2)
9.4 Estimating Interest Rate Equations
103(6)
9.5 Summary and Conclusions
109(1)
10 Generalizing the Pattern-Based Approach 110(23)
10.1 Introduction
110(1)
10.2 Expectations Data
111(4)
10.3 Econometric Analysis of Expectations Data
115(2)
10.4 Inflation Expectations Based on the Generalized Approach
117(3)
10.5 Applications to Historical Data of the United Kingdom
120(9)
10.6 Summary and Conclusions
129(1)
Appendix Comparing Expectations across Subject Pools
129(2)
Appendix Limitations of an Econometric Representation of the Laboratory Data
131(2)
11 A Detour to Income Expectations 133(10)
11.1 Introduction
133(1)
11.2 Expectations Data
133(4)
11.3 Income Expectations and the Course of the Great Recession
137(3)
11.4 Summary and Conclusions
140(1)
Appendix What Goes Up Must Come Down
141(2)
12 The Fisher Effect in Historical Times 143(14)
12.1 Introduction
143(2)
12.2 Around the World with Irving Fisher
145(6)
12.3 The Fisher Effect in the USA Prior to World War I
151(5)
12.4 Summary and Conclusions
156(1)
13 Expectations of High Inflation 157(13)
13.1 Introduction
157(1)
13.2 Expectations Data for Different Ranges of Inflation
157(1)
13.3 Tests of Range Consistency and Scaling
158(4)
13.4 Applications to High-Inflation Economies
162(6)
13.5 Summary and Conclusions
168(1)
Appendix Computing Elasticities of Expectations for Different Rates of Inflation
169(1)
14 The Fisher Effect in Asian Economies 170(9)
14.1 Introduction
170(1)
14.2 Estimating Interest Rate Equations
171(4)
14.3 Summary and Conclusions
175(1)
Appendix Expected One-Year-Ahead CPI-Inflation (Exp), Its Heterogeneity (Het), and Uncertainty (Unc) for Six Asian Economies
175(4)
15 The Fisher Effect in African Economies 179(9)
15.1 Introduction
179(1)
15.2 Estimating Interest Rate Equations
180(3)
15.3 Summary and Conclusions
183(1)
Appendix Expected One-Year-Ahead CPI-Inflation (Exp), Its Heterogeneity (Het), and Uncertainty (Unc) for Six African Economies
184(4)
16 Estimates of Expected Inflation for Major Economies 188(11)
16.1 Introduction
188(1)
16.2 Expected Inflation Series
188(11)
17 Estimates of Expected Real Interest Rates for Major Economies 199(7)
17.1 Introduction
199(1)
17.2 Real Interest Rate Series
199(7)
Epilogue 206(1)
References 207(13)
Index 220
Tobias F. Rötheli is Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Erfurt.
Biežāk uzdotie jautājumi par e-grāmatām Biežāk uzdotie jautājumi par e-grāmatām
Permanent link: https://www.kriso.lv/db/97811086980302e.html
Keywords: