Acknowledgments |
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xi | |
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1 | (22) |
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2 What Is Rationality and What Is the Evidence for It? |
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23 | (86) |
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23 | (6) |
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2.2 A Simple Taxonomy of Situations |
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29 | (8) |
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2.3 The Bayesian Rationality Approach |
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37 | (1) |
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2.4 Rationality under Certainty |
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38 | (5) |
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2.5 Rationality under Risk and Uncertainty |
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43 | (4) |
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2.6 Rationality in Choices Made over Time |
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47 | (5) |
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2.7 Rationality in Strategic Interaction |
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52 | (2) |
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2.8 What Rationality Is Not |
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54 | (2) |
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2.8.1 Rationality Does Not Imply Self-Regarding Preferences |
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54 | (1) |
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2.8.2 Rationality Does Not Imply Absence of Emotions in Decision-Making |
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55 | (1) |
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2.8.3 Rationality Does Require Perfect Attention and Unlimited Computing Power |
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56 | (1) |
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2.9 Evidence on Consistent Preferences |
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56 | (3) |
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2.10 Evidence on Limited Attention |
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59 | (2) |
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2.11 Evidence on Overconfidence |
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61 | (3) |
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2.12 Evidence on Rationality in Risk and Uncertainty |
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64 | (5) |
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2.12.1 Nonlinear Probability Weighting |
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64 | (4) |
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2.12.2 Reference Dependence |
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68 | (1) |
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69 | (1) |
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2.13 Evidence on Rationality in Time Discounting |
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69 | (7) |
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2.14 Evidence on Rationality in Strategic Interaction |
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76 | (3) |
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2.15 Do Humans Follow the Rules of Mathematical Statistics? |
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79 | (13) |
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2.15.1 Biases in Producing a Full Sampling Distribution |
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80 | (4) |
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2.15.2 Do People Use Bayes' Law? |
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84 | (4) |
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88 | (1) |
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2.15.4 A Modification of Bayes' Law |
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89 | (3) |
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2.16 Appendix: A Primer on Decision Theory |
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92 | (17) |
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2.16.1 Expected Utility Theory |
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93 | (3) |
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2.16.2 Probability Weighting Function |
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96 | (3) |
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2.16.3 Rank Dependent Utility |
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99 | (2) |
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101 | (8) |
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3 The Case for Bounded Rationality |
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109 | (60) |
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109 | (5) |
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3.2 How Reasonable Is the Assumption of Mathematical Optimization? |
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114 | (29) |
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3.2.1 A Basic Problem in Dynamic Optimization |
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115 | (4) |
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3.2.2 Emotions and Optimization in Microfinance Contracts |
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119 | (7) |
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3.2.3 Bubbles in Financial Markets |
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126 | (1) |
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3.2.4 Will Non-Optimizing Individuals Simply Perish? |
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127 | (4) |
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3.2.5 Optimization or Heuristics? An Application from Microfinance Contracts |
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131 | (3) |
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3.2.6 Optimization or Heuristics? An Application to Tax Evasion |
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134 | (4) |
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3.2.7 Assessing a Three-Way Leaders Debate |
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138 | (5) |
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3.3 Strategic Interaction |
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143 | (6) |
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3.4 The Role of Social Norms |
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149 | (7) |
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3.5 On Methodology in Economics |
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156 | (5) |
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3.6 Preferences and Beliefs: The Role of History, Culture, and Institutions |
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161 | (4) |
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3.6.1 Effect of Preferences on Institutions |
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162 | (1) |
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3.6.2 Effect of Institutions on Preferences |
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163 | (2) |
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3.7 The Macroeconomy as a Complex, Adaptive System |
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165 | (4) |
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4 Behavioral Models of Heuristics-Based Choice |
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169 | (96) |
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177 | (3) |
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4.2 Attribute-Based Models in Time Discounting |
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180 | (5) |
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4.2.1 Vague Time Preferences Model |
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181 | (2) |
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4.2.2 The Similarity Relation and Time Preference |
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183 | (1) |
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4.2.3 Trade-off Attribute Model of Intertemporal Choice |
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184 | (1) |
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4.3 Heuristics and Optimization I: Heuristics for Temporal Choices and Delay-Discounting Models |
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185 | (3) |
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4.4 Heuristics and Optimization II: Mental Accounting and Prospect Theory |
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188 | (2) |
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4.5 Aspiration Adaptation Theory |
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190 | (8) |
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4.5.1 A Cooperation Problem |
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192 | (3) |
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4.5.2 A Coordination Problem |
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195 | (3) |
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198 | (5) |
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203 | (4) |
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4.8 Winner's Curse in Financial Markets |
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207 | (4) |
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4.9 Complexity and Bounded Rationality: Thinking about Macroeconomics |
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211 | (15) |
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4.9.1 Inductive Reasoning, Adaptive Rules, and Emergent Phenomena |
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215 | (1) |
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4.9.2 Neighborhood Segregation as an Emergent Phenomenon |
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216 | (3) |
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4.9.3 Chaos: Extreme Dependence on Initial Conditions |
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219 | (2) |
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221 | (5) |
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4.10 Evolutionary Game Theory and Stochastic Social Dynamics |
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226 | (8) |
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4.10.1 Evolutionary Game Theory |
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226 | (5) |
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4.10.2 Stochastic Social Dynamics |
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231 | (3) |
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4.11 Narratives and Contagion |
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234 | (8) |
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242 | (3) |
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245 | (6) |
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4.13.1 Equity-Premium Puzzle |
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247 | (2) |
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249 | (2) |
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4.13.3 Why Do People Engage in Narrow Choice Bracketing? |
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251 | (1) |
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4.14 Attitudes toward Very Low Probability Events |
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251 | (8) |
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4.14.1 Original Prospect Theory |
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253 | (2) |
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4.14.2 The Evidence on Behavior under Low Probability Events |
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255 | (3) |
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4.14.3 So What Is the Way Forward? |
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258 | (1) |
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4.15 Do People Take Account of Sunk Costs and Opportunity Costs? |
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259 | (6) |
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5 Kahneman and Tversky's Research Program on Heuristics and Biases |
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265 | (40) |
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265 | (5) |
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5.2 The Representative Heuristic |
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270 | (5) |
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5.2.1 The Gambler's Fallacy |
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273 | (1) |
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5.2.2 The Hot Hand Fallacy |
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274 | (1) |
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275 | (3) |
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278 | (3) |
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5.5 The Availability Heuristic |
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281 | (1) |
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5.6 The Conjunction Fallacy |
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282 | (2) |
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5.7 Regression to the Mean |
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284 | (2) |
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5.8 Necessary and Sufficient Conditions |
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286 | (1) |
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286 | (2) |
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5.10 The Affect Heuristic |
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288 | (1) |
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5.11 Objections to the HBP |
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289 | (14) |
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5.11.1 Some Preliminaries |
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289 | (2) |
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5.11.2 Ecological Rationality |
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291 | (1) |
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5.11.3 One-Event Probabilities, Context, and Errors |
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292 | (1) |
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5.11.4 "We Cannot Be That Dumb" Critique |
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293 | (1) |
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5.11.5 Frequency versus Probability Format and the HBP |
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294 | (3) |
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5.11.6 Empirical Counterparts to the Heuristics |
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297 | (1) |
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5.11.7 How Can Heuristics Explain Events A and Not A? |
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298 | (2) |
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5.11.8 The Criticism of Appropriate Statistical Norms |
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300 | (2) |
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302 | (1) |
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5.12 Experts and the HBP Heuristics |
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303 | (2) |
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6 The Fast and Frugal Heuristics Research Program |
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305 | (36) |
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305 | (4) |
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309 | (7) |
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6.3 A Critique of the FFP |
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316 | (9) |
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6.3.1 What Is the Benchmark for Comparison? |
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316 | (1) |
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6.3.2 Empirical Testing of Heuristics in the FFP |
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317 | (4) |
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6.3.3 Training People in Using Statistics |
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321 | (2) |
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6.3.4 Does the FFP Tell Us Which Heuristic to Use? |
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323 | (2) |
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6.4 On Mathematical Optimization and As-If Theories |
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325 | (2) |
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6.5 On Distinct Domains of Choices in the HBP and FFP |
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327 | (6) |
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6.6 The Less Is More Effect |
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333 | (8) |
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6.6.1 A Critique of the Bias-Variance Trade-off |
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337 | (2) |
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6.6.2 Implications of the Less Is More Effect for the HBP |
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339 | (2) |
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7 Philosophical Foundations |
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341 | (20) |
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341 | (2) |
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343 | (3) |
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7.3 Direct and Indirect Judgments |
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346 | (5) |
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351 | (2) |
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7.5 The Pervasiveness of Indirect Judgments |
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353 | (1) |
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7.6 Defining Direct Judgments |
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354 | (2) |
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356 | (2) |
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358 | (3) |
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8 Optimal Taxation and Regulation in Behavioral Economics |
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361 | (42) |
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361 | (2) |
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8.2 An Introduction to Multiple Selves |
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363 | (3) |
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8.3 Multiple Selves, Internalities, and Public Policy |
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366 | (8) |
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8.4 Limited Attention and Deadweight Loss from Taxation |
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374 | (6) |
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8.5 Tax Incidence under Limited Attention |
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380 | (2) |
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8.6 Internalities and Tax Efficiency: An Application to Sugar Taxes |
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382 | (3) |
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8.7 Present Biased Preferences and Procrastination: More Applications |
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385 | (7) |
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8.7.1 Procrastination: Fixing Ideas |
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386 | (3) |
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8.7.2 Job Search and Hard Paternalism |
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389 | (1) |
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8.7.3 Deadlines; Buying Single Cigarette Packs |
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390 | (1) |
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8.7.4 Inducing Farmers to Buy Fertilizers |
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391 | (1) |
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8.8 Behavioral Industrial Organization, Bounded Rationality, and Policy |
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392 | (11) |
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9 Libertarian Paternalism in Theory |
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403 | (20) |
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403 | (2) |
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405 | (2) |
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9.3 Libertarian Paternalism |
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407 | (8) |
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415 | (4) |
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419 | (4) |
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10 Libertarian Paternalism in Practice |
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423 | (20) |
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10.1 Behavioral Public Policy around the World |
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423 | (3) |
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426 | (2) |
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10.3 Institutionalizing Behavioral Insights: Two Approaches |
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428 | (1) |
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10.4 Examples of Behavioral Public Policies |
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429 | (5) |
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429 | (2) |
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10.4.2 Policies on Savings |
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431 | (1) |
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432 | (1) |
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432 | (1) |
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433 | (1) |
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10.4.6 Payroll Statements |
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434 | (1) |
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434 | (6) |
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435 | (1) |
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436 | (1) |
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437 | (1) |
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437 | (1) |
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10.5.5 Disclosure and Competition |
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438 | (2) |
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440 | (1) |
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440 | (3) |
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443 | (2) |
Notes |
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445 | (10) |
References |
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455 | (48) |
Index |
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503 | |