Acknowledgments |
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xi | |
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1 Setting the Foundation: Disasters and Conflicts |
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1 | (18) |
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Why Study Disasters and Armed Conflicts? |
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1 | (4) |
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The Emergence of Disaster-Conflict Research |
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5 | (3) |
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8 | (4) |
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Contributions of This Study |
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12 | (2) |
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Goal, Definitions, and Plan |
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14 | (5) |
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2 After the Disaster: Motives, Strategies, and Incentives for Conflict (De-)escalation |
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19 | (20) |
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25 | (2) |
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27 | (2) |
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29 | (3) |
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32 | (1) |
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33 | (2) |
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35 | (2) |
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37 | (2) |
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3 Cases, Conditions, and Qualitative Comparative Analysis |
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39 | (16) |
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39 | (2) |
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Data Collection and Analysis |
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41 | (7) |
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Causal Conditions and Theoretical Expectations |
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48 | (7) |
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4 Disasters and Armed Conflict Dynamics: Evidence from 36 Cases |
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55 | (84) |
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Cases of Conflict Escalation after Disasters |
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55 | (1) |
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Bangladesh 1991: The Chittagong Hill Conflict after Cyclone Gorky |
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55 | (2) |
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Colombia 1999: Shaking Grounds, Shaking the Peace Process? |
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57 | (3) |
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Egypt 1994: Floods, Fire, and Fury |
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60 | (2) |
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India (Andhra Pradesh and Orissa) 1999: The Cyclone as an Opportunity for Naxalite Insurgents |
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62 | (3) |
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India (Assam) 1998: Floods, Recruitment Opportunities, and Conflict Persistence |
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65 | (2) |
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Philippines 1990: Earthquake-Related Opportunities for Both Sides |
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67 | (4) |
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Sri Lanka 2004: Wave of Violence? |
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71 | (3) |
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Tajikistan 1992: Independence, Civil War, and Floods |
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74 | (2) |
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Uganda 1999--2001: Drought, Food Insecurity, and Raids |
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76 | (2) |
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Cases of Conflict De-escalation after Disasters |
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78 | (1) |
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Bangladesh 2007: Cyclone Sidr and the Maoist Insurgency |
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78 | (3) |
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Burundi 2005--2006: Drought, Democratization, and the Peace Process |
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81 | (3) |
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India (Kashmir) 2005: Cross-Border Constraints in the Face of an Earthquake |
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84 | (2) |
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Indonesia 2004: Wave of Peace? |
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86 | (3) |
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Myanmar 2008: The Karen Conflict after Cyclone Nargis |
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89 | (3) |
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Pakistan 2010: Floods Facilitating Conflict De-escalation |
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92 | (3) |
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Somalia 1997: Flood in the Midst of Chaos |
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95 | (2) |
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Somalia 2010--2011: Drought and Famine in a Fragile Country |
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97 | (3) |
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Turkey 1999: Ocalan's Capture, the Marmara Earthquake, and the PKK's Cease-Fire |
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100 | (2) |
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Cases with No Disaster Impact on Conflict Dynamics |
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102 | (1) |
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Afghanistan 1998: Remote Earthquakes Did Not Shape Conflict Dynamics |
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102 | (3) |
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Afghanistan 2008: Freezing the Conflict? |
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105 | (2) |
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Algeria 2003: Grievances and Opportunities after the Boumerdes Earthquake |
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107 | (2) |
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India (Assam) 2007: The ULFA's Inability to Exploit Flood-Related Opportunities |
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109 | (1) |
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Indonesia 1992: No Link between the Flores Earthquake and the East Timor Conflict |
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110 | (2) |
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Indonesia 2006: Disaster in Yogyarkata, De-escalation In Aceh? |
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112 | (2) |
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Iran 1990: The Kurdish Struggle after the Manjll-Rudbar Earthquake |
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114 | (2) |
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Iran 1997: The MEK Insurgency and the Qayen Earthquake |
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116 | (1) |
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Nepal 1996: Correlation but No Causation between Floods and Armed Conflict Escalation |
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117 | (2) |
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Pakistan 2005: Escalation after, but Not Related to the Kashmir arthquake |
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119 | (2) |
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Pakistan 2015: Turning On the Heat, Turning Off the Conflict? |
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121 | (2) |
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Peru 2007: High-Intensity Earthquake, Low-Intensity Conflict |
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123 | (2) |
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Philippines 1991: Storm, Flood, and Conflict De-escalation |
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125 | (2) |
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Philippines 2013: Super Typhoon, but Few Conflict Implications |
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127 | (2) |
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Philippines 2012: No Link between Typhoon and Conflict Escalation |
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129 | (2) |
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Russia 1995: The Sakhalin Earthquake and the Conflict in Chechnya---Too Far Apart |
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131 | (2) |
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Russia 2010: Triple Disaster Not Linked to Conflict De-escalation |
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133 | (2) |
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Thailand 2004: Tsunami and Conflict Escalation---Correlation but No Causation |
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135 | (2) |
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137 | (2) |
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5 Armed Conflicts in the Aftermath of Disasters: Key Findings |
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139 | (38) |
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General Findings and Their Implications |
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139 | (1) |
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Armed Conflict Escalation, De-escalation, and Continuation |
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139 | (6) |
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145 | (2) |
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147 | (5) |
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152 | (3) |
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Disaster Types and Conflict Dynamics |
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155 | (3) |
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When Do Disasters Have an Impact on Conflict Dynamics? |
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158 | (8) |
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Escalation or De-escalation after a Disaster? |
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166 | (8) |
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174 | (3) |
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6 Conflict Implications of the COVID-19 Pandemic |
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177 | (28) |
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177 | (6) |
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The Islamic State Conflict in Iraq |
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183 | (4) |
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The Taliban Conflict in Afghanistan |
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187 | (4) |
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The Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria |
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191 | (5) |
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The Conflict between the CPP/NPA and the Philippine Government |
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196 | (4) |
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200 | (5) |
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205 | (14) |
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Key Findings and Their Implications |
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205 | (7) |
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212 | (2) |
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Lessons for Practice and Policy |
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214 | (3) |
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217 | (2) |
References |
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219 | (62) |
Index |
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281 | |