Preface |
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xi | |
Acknowledgements |
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xiii | |
Main Symbols and Acronyms, Including Typical Values for Constants |
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xv | |
1 Description of the Climate System and Its Components |
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1 | (29) |
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1 | (1) |
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2 | (9) |
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1.2.1 Composition and Temperature |
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2 | (5) |
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1.2.2 General Circulation of the Atmosphere |
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7 | (2) |
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9 | (2) |
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11 | (9) |
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1.3.1 Composition and Properties |
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11 | (1) |
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1.3.2 Oceanic Circulation |
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12 | (3) |
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1.3.3 Temperature and Salinity |
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15 | (5) |
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20 | (5) |
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20 | (4) |
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24 | (1) |
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1.5 The Land Surface and the Terrestrial Biosphere |
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25 | (4) |
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29 | (1) |
2 Energy Balance, Hydrological and Carbon Cycles |
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30 | (43) |
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2.1 The Earth's Energy Budget |
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30 | (23) |
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2.1.1 The Radiative Balance at the Top of the Atmosphere: A Global View |
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30 | (2) |
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2.1.2 The Greenhouse Effect |
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32 | (3) |
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2.1.3 Present-Day Insolation at the Top of the Atmosphere |
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35 | (7) |
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2.1.4 The Radiative Balance at the Top of the Atmosphere: Geographical Distribution |
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42 | (1) |
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2.1.5 Heat Storage and Transport |
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43 | (6) |
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2.1.6 Energy Balance at the Surface |
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49 | (4) |
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2.2 The Hydrological Cycle |
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53 | (5) |
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2.2.1 Global Water Balance |
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53 | (1) |
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2.2.2 Water Balance on Land |
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54 | (3) |
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2.2.3 Local Water Balance and Water Transport |
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57 | (1) |
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58 | (12) |
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58 | (1) |
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2.3.2 Oceanic Carbon Cycle |
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59 | (5) |
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2.3.3 Terrestrial Carbon Cycle |
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64 | (3) |
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2.3.4 Geological Reservoirs |
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67 | (1) |
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67 | (3) |
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70 | (3) |
3 Modelling the Climate System |
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73 | (60) |
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73 | (5) |
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3.1.1 What Is a Climate Model? |
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73 | (3) |
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76 | (2) |
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3.2 A Hierarchy of Models |
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78 | (7) |
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3.2.1 Energy-Balance Models and Simple Dynamic Systems |
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78 | (1) |
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3.2.2 Intermediate-Complexity Models |
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79 | (2) |
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3.2.3 General Circulation Models |
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81 | (1) |
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3.2.4 Regional Climate Models |
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82 | (2) |
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3.2.5 Statistical Downscaling |
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84 | (1) |
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3.3 Components of a Climate Model |
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85 | (16) |
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85 | (4) |
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89 | (2) |
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91 | (2) |
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93 | (3) |
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3.3.5 Marine Biogeochemistry |
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96 | (2) |
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98 | (1) |
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3.3.7 Aerosols and Atmospheric Chemistry |
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99 | (1) |
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3.3.8 Earth System Models: Coupling between the Components |
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100 | (1) |
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3.4 Numerical Resolution of the Equations |
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101 | (9) |
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3.4.1 A Simple Example Using the Finite-Difference Method |
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101 | (1) |
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3.4.2 Consistence, Convergence, Stability and Accuracy |
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102 | (3) |
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3.4.3 Time and Space Discretisations Using Finite Differences |
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105 | (3) |
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3.4.4 Spectral Representation, Finite-Volume and Finite-Element Methods |
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108 | (2) |
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110 | (11) |
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3.5.1 Testing, Verification and Validation |
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110 | (4) |
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3.5.2 Evaluating Model Performance |
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114 | (7) |
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3.6 Combining Model Results and Observations |
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121 | (9) |
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3.6.1 Correction of Model Biases |
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121 | (4) |
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125 | (5) |
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130 | (3) |
4 Response of the Climate System to a Perturbation |
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133 | (45) |
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4.1 Climate Forcing and Climate Response |
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133 | (18) |
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4.1.1 Notion of Radiative Forcing |
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133 | (2) |
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4.1.2 Major Radiative Forcing Agents |
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135 | (7) |
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4.1.3 Equilibrium Response of the Climate System: A Definition of Feedback |
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142 | (3) |
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4.1.4 Direct Physical Feedbacks |
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145 | (3) |
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4.1.5 Transient Response of the Climate System: Ocean Heat Uptake |
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148 | (3) |
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151 | (11) |
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4.2.1 Water-Vapour Feedback and Lapse-Rate Feedback |
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151 | (3) |
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4.2.2 Cryospheric Feedbacks |
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154 | (1) |
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155 | (2) |
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4.2.4 Soil-Moisture Feedbacks |
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157 | (1) |
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4.2.5 Advective Feedback in the Ocean |
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158 | (4) |
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4.3 Geochemical, Biogeochemical and Biogeophysical Feedbacks |
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162 | (11) |
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4.3.1 Concentration-Carbon and Climate-Carbon Feedbacks |
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162 | (6) |
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4.3.2 Interactions between Climate and the Terrestrial Biosphere |
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168 | (1) |
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4.3.3 Calcium Carbonate Compensation |
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169 | (3) |
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4.3.4 Interaction among Plate Tectonics, Climate and the Carbon Cycle |
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172 | (1) |
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4.4 Summary of the Most Important Feedbacks |
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173 | (1) |
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174 | (4) |
5 Brief History of Climate: Causes and Mechanisms |
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178 | (69) |
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178 | (4) |
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5.1.1 Forced and Internal Variability |
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178 | (2) |
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5.1.2 Time Scales of Climate Variations |
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180 | (2) |
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5.2 Internal Climate Variability |
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182 | (9) |
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5.2.1 El Nitio-Southern Oscillation |
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182 | (4) |
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5.2.2 North Atlantic Oscillation |
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186 | (2) |
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5.2.3 Southern Annular Mode |
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188 | (2) |
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5.2.4 Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation |
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190 | (1) |
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5.3 Reconstructing Past Climates |
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191 | (11) |
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5.3.1 Records of Past Climate Changes |
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191 | (5) |
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196 | (4) |
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5.3.3 An Important Example: Reconstructions Based on Isotopes |
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200 | (2) |
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5.4 Climate since the Earth's Formation |
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202 | (9) |
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5.4.1 Precambrian Climate |
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202 | (3) |
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5.4.2 Phanerozoic Climate |
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205 | (2) |
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207 | (4) |
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5.5 The Last Million Years:Glacial-Interglacial Cycles |
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211 | (13) |
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5.5.1 Variations in Astronomical Parameters and Insolation |
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211 | (3) |
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5.5.2 The Astronomical Theory of Paleoclimates |
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214 | (5) |
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5.5.3 Glacial-Interglacial Variations in the Atmospheric CO2 Concentration |
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219 | (2) |
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5.5.4 Millennial-Scale Variability during Glacial Periods |
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221 | (3) |
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5.6 The Last Deglaciation and the Holocene |
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224 | (12) |
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5.6.1 The Last Deglaciation |
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224 | (3) |
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5.6.2 The Current Interglacial |
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227 | (2) |
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5.6.3 The Past 2000 Years |
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229 | (7) |
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236 | (7) |
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236 | (1) |
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5.7.2 Detection and Attribution of Recent Climate Changes |
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237 | (6) |
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243 | (4) |
6 Future Climate Changes |
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247 | (38) |
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247 | (6) |
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6.1.1 The Purpose of the Scenarios and Scenario Development |
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247 | (2) |
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6.1.2 Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) |
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249 | (1) |
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6.1.3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) |
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250 | (3) |
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6.2 Climate Changes over the Twenty-First Century |
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253 | (20) |
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253 | (2) |
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6.2.2 Decadal Predictions and Projections |
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255 | (3) |
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6.2.3 Changes in Global Mean Surface Temperature |
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258 | (2) |
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6.2.4 Spatial Distribution of Surface Temperature Changes |
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260 | (3) |
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6.2.5 Spatial Distribution of Precipitation Changes |
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263 | (2) |
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6.2.6 Changes in the Ocean and Sea Ice |
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265 | (2) |
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6.2.7 Changes in Modes of Variability |
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267 | (1) |
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6.2.8 Changes in Climate Extremes |
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268 | (2) |
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6.2.9 Changes in the Carbon Cycle |
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270 | (3) |
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6.3 Long-Term Climate Changes |
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273 | (8) |
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273 | (2) |
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6.3.2 Sea Level and Ice Sheets |
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275 | (4) |
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6.3.3 Abrupt Climate Changes |
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279 | (2) |
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281 | (4) |
Concluding Remarks |
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285 | (2) |
Glossary |
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287 | (30) |
Cited References and Further Reading |
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317 | (24) |
Solutions of the Review Exercises |
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341 | (12) |
Index |
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353 | |