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E-grāmata: Cognition as Intuitive Statistics

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(Queens University, Canada.),
  • Formāts: 230 pages
  • Sērija : Psychology Revivals
  • Izdošanas datums: 14-Aug-2015
  • Izdevniecība: Psychology Press Ltd
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781317362180
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Cognition as Intuitive StatisticsPalielināt
  • Formāts: 230 pages
  • Sērija : Psychology Revivals
  • Izdošanas datums: 14-Aug-2015
  • Izdevniecība: Psychology Press Ltd
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781317362180
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Originally published in 1987, this title is about theory construction in psychology. Where theories come from, as opposed to how they become established, was almost a no-man’s land in the history and philosophy of science at the time. The authors argue that in the science of mind, theories are particularly likely to come from tools, and they are especially concerned with the emergence of the metaphor of the mind as an intuitive statistician.

In the first chapter, the authors discuss the rise of the inference revolution, which institutionalized those statistical tools that later became theories of cognitive processes. In each of the four following chapters they treat one major topic of cognitive psychology and show to what degree statistical concepts transformed their understanding of those topics.

Acknowledgments ix
Introduction: Two Revolutions---Cognitive and Probabilistic xi
1 The Inference Revolution
1(28)
From Tools to Theories: Scientists' Instruments as Metaphors of Mind
1(2)
Metaphors; The Evolution of Metaphors; Statistical Tools as Cognitive Theories
Emergence of Statistical Inference
3(14)
The First Test of a Null Hypothesis; Bayes; Sir Ronald A. Fisher; Jerzy Neyman and Egon S. Pearson
What Did Psychologists Do Before the Inference Revolution?
17(2)
How Statistics Became an Indispensable Instrument: The Inference Revolution
19(9)
The Inference Revolution (1940--1955); The Irrational Revolution; the Permanent Illusion; Consequences and Alternatives; How Could the Inference Revolution Have Happened?
Conclusions
28(1)
2 Detection and Discrimination: From Thresholds to Statistical Inference
29(32)
History: Before the Inference Revolution
29(13)
From Thresholds to Variability in Brain Activity; Why Didn't Thurstone Detect Signal Detection Theory?; Summary
The Emergence of the Statistical Metaphor: Signal Detection Theory
42(16)
The Mind as a Neyman and Pearsonian Statistician; The Conceptual Change; The Receiver Operating Characteristic; Tanner's Conception of the Mind; Beyond Signal Detection Theory: A Metaphor Conquers the Mind
Summary
58(3)
3 Perception: From Unconscious Inference to Hypothesis Testing
61(45)
History: Before the Inference Revolution
62(19)
Unconscious Inference; From Unconscious Inference to Intuitive Statistics
The Realist View: Pickup of Information
81(5)
Invariants in the Ambient Light; The Loss of Uncertainty; Information Available and Information Used
The Inductive View: Hypothesis Testing
86(5)
Methods of Science as Metaphor; The Betting Machine Metaphor
The Deductive View: Cognitive Algebra
91(12)
Perception as Cognitive Algebra; The Fisherian Perspective in Hypothesis Construction; The Fisherian Perspective in Hypothesis Testing; The Circle of Hypothesis Construction and Testing
Summary
103(3)
4 Memory: From Association to Decision Making
106(31)
History: Before the Inference Revolution
106(7)
The Behaviorist Legacy; Studies of Human Memory: Semon and Bartlett
The Emergence of the Decision Metaphor
113(10)
Research During the 1960s and Early 1970s; The Return of Signal Detection Theory in the 1980s
Other Metaphors
123(9)
Short-Term Memory; Search; Activation Rather Than Search
Conclusions
132(5)
5 Thinking: From Insight to Intuitive Statistics
137(45)
History: Before the Inference Revolution
138(9)
The Fading of Associationism; Insight and Restructuring
Is the Mind a Bayesian?
147(15)
Conservatism; Base Rate Neglect: The Kahneman and Tversky Program
Fundamental Assumptions in the Normative Program
162(12)
Is There an Isomorphism Between the World and Bayes' Theorem?; Does Statistics Speak With One Voice?
The Fisherian Mind: Causal Reasoning
174(5)
Scientists' Tools = Laws of Causal Reasoning; The Conceptual Skeleton
Rationality
179(3)
Mechanization of Inductive Inference; Elimination of Subjectivity
6 Conclusions
182(7)
From Tools to Theories: In Their Own Image; The Integrative Perspective; Blind Spots; The Intuitive Statistician Reconsidered
References 189(16)
Author Index 205(5)
Subject Index 210
Gigerenzer, Gerd; Murray, David J.
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