| Preface: Learning data, statistics, and continuous improvement another way |
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| Acknowledgments |
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| Author |
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| Part I: Simple steps to making probability interesting |
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Chapter 1 The science of learning: Make it interesting or shocking |
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3 | (8) |
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Why we still remember where we were and what we were doing on 9/11 |
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3 | (4) |
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7 | (2) |
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Part one:
Chapters two through four. Card tricks and probability |
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7 | (1) |
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Part two:
Chapters five through ten. Juggling and statistics |
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8 | (1) |
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Part three:
Chapters eleven through thirteen. Experimental helicopter for continuous improvement |
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9 | (1) |
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Part four:
Chapters fourteen and fifteen. Making data and statistics fun and interesting |
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9 | (1) |
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9 | (2) |
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Chapter 2 The use of two very basic card tricks to explain probability theory |
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11 | (22) |
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11 | (1) |
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The basics of the multiplication principle for probability theory |
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11 | (1) |
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Classroom activity 1: Teaching the multiplication principle by card trick-The aces and kings card trick |
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The step-by-step mechanics of how a simple card trick can greatly enhance the learning process |
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12 | (7) |
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12 | (1) |
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Step 2: Bring up to the front a member of the class or audience |
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12 | (1) |
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Step 3: Optional fake shuffle #1 |
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12 | (1) |
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Step 4: Strategically have the student cut the deck |
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13 | (1) |
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Steps 5A-5D: The fake shuffle. Moving the four aces and the four kings to the bottom four on the table in what is believed are fully shuffled cards |
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14 | (4) |
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Step 5A: Move your four kings from the bottom of the deck to the bottom of a new stack on the table |
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15 | (1) |
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Step 5C: Move the student's stack with the four aces on top to her/his new stack |
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16 | (1) |
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Step 5D: Shuffle all cards except the cards that have been placed on the table |
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16 | (2) |
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Step 6: The fake shuffle continued |
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18 | (1) |
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Step 7: Form four piles of cards on each side of the table from the two halves |
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18 | (1) |
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Card trick finale: Using multiplication principle of probability theory |
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19 | (2) |
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21 | (1) |
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A card trick for teaching probabilities of independent events |
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22 | (1) |
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How to show the difference by card illusion |
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22 | (6) |
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Step 1: Student selects and memorizes a card |
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22 | (1) |
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22 | (3) |
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Step 3: Card insertion and pinky break |
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25 | (1) |
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Step 4: Moving the target card to top of the pile |
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25 | (1) |
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Step 5: False showing of card to student |
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26 | (1) |
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26 | (1) |
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Step 7: Returning the target card to the deck |
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26 | (2) |
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Comparing dependent and independent events |
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28 | (1) |
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Reality check: How it works in operations |
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29 | (1) |
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Summary and potential next steps for instructors and students |
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29 | (1) |
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29 | (1) |
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Bonus section: The process map |
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30 | (2) |
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32 | (1) |
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32 | (1) |
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Chapter 3 Combinations and permutations by card magic |
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33 | (18) |
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33 | (1) |
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33 | (1) |
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The concept of combinations and the phone number card trick |
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33 | (1) |
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The mathematics behind a flush in poker |
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34 | (1) |
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Classroom activity 3.1: The poker hand flush by the "phone number" card trick |
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35 | (6) |
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Step 1: Start by stacking a standard deck similar to examples in
Chapter two |
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35 | (1) |
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Step 2: Placebo shuffle by students |
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35 | (4) |
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Step 3: Determining probability of flush and revealing the flush |
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39 | (2) |
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Classroom activity 3.2: Phone number card trick to elaborate on the concept of combinations-permutations |
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41 | (6) |
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Step 1: The phone number card trick: Stacking the deck |
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41 | (1) |
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Step 2: Fake shuffle the phone number from the bottom of the deck to the top |
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42 | (1) |
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Step 3: False cut of the deck |
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42 | (1) |
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Step 4: The first random cut |
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42 | (1) |
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43 | (1) |
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43 | (1) |
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44 | (2) |
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Step 8: Reveal the phone number |
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46 | (1) |
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The phone number trick and "useful, relevant, and interesting/ shocking?" |
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47 | (1) |
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Other card tricks to be used with probability theory |
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47 | (1) |
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A follow-up team exercise for students or in a continuous improvement class |
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48 | (1) |
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48 | (1) |
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49 | (2) |
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Chapter 4 Bayesian statistics: When accurate past information shortens the distance to the aha moment |
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51 | (16) |
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51 | (1) |
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52 | (1) |
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52 | (4) |
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Classroom activity 4.1: Coin trick to explain Bayes' theorem and illustrate the problem with subjectivity in prior knowledge |
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56 | (3) |
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Step 1: Setup and identifying the two-headed quarter |
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56 | (1) |
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Step 2: Pass out quarters and flip three times |
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56 | (65) |
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Scenario
1. I don't think the instructor had prior knowledge; the coin was randomly chosen |
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57 | (1) |
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Scenario
2. I think the instructor had prior knowledge and chose the person with the fake coin |
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58 | (1) |
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Scenario
3. I think the instructor had prior knowledge and chose one of the real coins |
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58 | (1) |
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The medical problem by tree diagram |
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59 | (1) |
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Your honor, gut instinct does not counter Reverend Bayes |
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60 | (1) |
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How it should work in industry (but rarely does) |
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61 | (2) |
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63 | (4) |
| Part II: Introduction: Data, statistics, and continuous improvement via the sport of juggling |
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Chapter 5 Learning the sport of juggling step by step |
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67 | (16) |
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67 | (1) |
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The history of juggling and famous jugglers over the years |
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67 | (3) |
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70 | (1) |
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The first step: The one-ball cascade |
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70 | (2) |
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Two-ball cascade juggling: The most critical pattern to learn |
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72 | (4) |
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Next step to three-ball juggling: The two-and-half-ball cascade |
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76 | (1) |
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77 | (3) |
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Optional advanced next steps for the advanced jugglers |
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80 | (1) |
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81 | (2) |
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Chapter 6 The start of any process including learning to juggle: Mean, standard deviation, and the learning curve |
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83 | (8) |
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83 | (1) |
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The key to any process optimization: The right measurement |
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83 | (1) |
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Creativity in choosing measurement systems: Convert it to something measureable |
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83 | (2) |
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Mean and standard deviation for tosses to drop as a training technique for process optimization |
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85 | (1) |
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Process capability calculation: Number of standard deviations |
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86 | (2) |
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Process capability by capability analysis |
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88 | (1) |
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89 | (1) |
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89 | (1) |
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90 | (1) |
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Chapter 7 The basics of using the control chart to improve the juggling process |
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91 | (12) |
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91 | (1) |
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The basics of the Shewhart statistical process control chart |
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91 | (1) |
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The basics of statistical process control |
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92 | (1) |
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The typical three primary conditions for out-of-control |
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93 | (1) |
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The juggling demonstration of statistical process control |
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94 | (1) |
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The first view of the process, an isolated out-of-control point, and what information can be obtained |
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94 | (2) |
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Special cause of variation or nontypical behavior-Eight in a row above or below the mean |
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96 | (2) |
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Nontypical process behavior-Six in a row trending up or down: The wear out |
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98 | (1) |
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How to not use a control chart-Adjustment and the negative consequence |
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99 | (2) |
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101 | (1) |
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102 | (1) |
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Chapter 8 The reliability function or bathtub curve as demonstrated by juggling |
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103 | (8) |
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103 | (1) |
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Demystifying the bathtub curve for equipment and personnel |
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103 | (1) |
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How to explain by juggling |
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104 | (2) |
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The useful life to wear-out transition zone |
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106 | (1) |
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A demonstration on how to extend the wear-out cycle |
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106 | (3) |
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109 | (2) |
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Chapter 9 Improving by challenging the process: The design of experiments process |
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111 | (16) |
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111 | (1) |
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How to improve any process including juggling-The juggling DOE |
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112 | (1) |
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113 | (1) |
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114 | (2) |
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Reducing the variation in those factors not to be tested |
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116 | (1) |
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The concept of confounding variables |
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117 | (1) |
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Sample size and randomization |
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117 | (2) |
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The how-tos for running the experiment, and the outcome |
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119 | (1) |
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What can be learned from a typical designed experiment |
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119 | (1) |
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120 | (1) |
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Interpretation of the results |
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121 | (3) |
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The opportunity the next day and the follow-up testing |
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122 | (1) |
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Next phase of improvement and the regression model |
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123 | (1) |
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A very simple regression model |
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124 | (1) |
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Summary on DOE and regression model method via juggling |
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124 | (1) |
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Further exercises for students |
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125 | (1) |
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125 | (2) |
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Chapter 10 Design of experiments via a card trick |
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127 | (12) |
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127 | (1) |
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Introduction and the card trick "mysterious mind read" |
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127 | (1) |
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The effect, or what the audience sees when performing for a large audience (+20) |
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127 | (1) |
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128 | (1) |
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The 5-factor, 2-level design as compared to the mysterious mind read |
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128 | (6) |
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Method number one for setting up the card trick: The easy method |
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130 | (1) |
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Method number two: An advance method by binary code and de Bruijn sequence |
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131 | (1) |
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The five-digit code for all cards: Aces through 8-In binary code |
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132 | (2) |
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134 | (1) |
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Summary and potential next steps |
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134 | (1) |
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134 | (1) |
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135 | (4) |
| Part III: Introduction: Data, statistics, and continuous improvement via the experimental helicopter |
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Chapter 11 Hypothesis testing method utilizing the experimental helicopter |
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139 | (14) |
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139 | (1) |
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A brief history of hypothesis testing |
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139 | (1) |
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The hypothesis testing model |
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140 | (1) |
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Making the model less analytical |
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140 | (2) |
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Alpha error or type I error |
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141 | (1) |
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141 | (1) |
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141 | (1) |
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142 | (1) |
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Transitioning from the courtroom to the production model |
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142 | (2) |
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142 | (1) |
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The alternative hypothesis (Ha) and significance level |
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143 | (1) |
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144 | (1) |
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Demonstrating the experimental process with the paper helicopter and rack system |
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145 | (2) |
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A test to demonstrate the hypothesis testing method and the negative effects from variation |
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147 | (2) |
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A better test to determine if there is difference: Hold constant the helicopter design |
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149 | (1) |
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Summary of the hypothesis testing method and the use of experimental helicopter |
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150 | (1) |
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150 | (1) |
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151 | (2) |
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Chapter 12 An intermediate use of the experimental helicopter: The 5-factor, 2-level, 16-run half-factorial designed experiment |
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153 | (12) |
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153 | (1) |
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An overview of this model and why it is so successful at improving any process |
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153 | (1) |
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A review of the helicopter and the five variables |
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154 | (1) |
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A brief background on partial factorial designs and confounding |
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154 | (1) |
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The 5-factor, 2-level, 16-run half-factorial, Resolution V experiment |
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155 | (1) |
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The base-level design for the helicopter design |
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156 | (3) |
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159 | (1) |
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A nonanalytic graphical view of the experiment |
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159 | (4) |
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163 | (1) |
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Discussion areas and potential next steps for students |
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163 | (1) |
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164 | (1) |
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Chapter 13 Process optimization after the design of experiments |
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165 | (12) |
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165 | (1) |
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Overview from the 5-factor, half-factorial, designed experiment |
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165 | (1) |
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The optimization process with the experimental helicopter |
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165 | (4) |
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166 | (3) |
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Interpretation and confirmation of the new optimization point |
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169 | (1) |
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A brief explanation of coded units |
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169 | (4) |
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Putting it into action or "go live" |
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173 | (1) |
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Follow-up exercises for students |
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173 | (1) |
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174 | (3) |
| Part IV: Data, statistics, and continuous improvement for everyone |
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Chapter 14 Making data, statistics, and continuous improvement fun and interesting: A typical week-long course |
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177 | (4) |
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177 | (1) |
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177 | (1) |
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Typical introductory Six Sigma or continuous improvement education model with this approach |
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177 | (4) |
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177 | (1) |
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177 | (1) |
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178 | (1) |
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178 | (1) |
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178 | (1) |
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178 | (1) |
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179 | (1) |
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179 | (1) |
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179 | (1) |
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180 | (1) |
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Chapter 15 Final thoughts |
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181 | (2) |
| Index |
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