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xxi | |
Preface |
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xxiii | |
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1 | (30) |
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1 Database Marketing and Data Mining |
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3 | (14) |
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4 | (5) |
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1.1.1 Common Database Marketing Applications |
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5 | (3) |
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1.1.2 Obstacles to Implementing a Database Marketing Program |
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8 | (1) |
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1.1.3 Who Stands to Benefit the Most from the Use of Database Marketing? |
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9 | (1) |
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9 | (5) |
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1.2.1 Two Definitions of Data Mining |
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9 | (1) |
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1.2.2 Classes of Data Mining Methods |
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10 | (1) |
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10 | (1) |
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1.2.2.2 Predictive Modeling Methods |
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11 | (3) |
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1.3 Linking Methods to Marketing Applications |
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14 | (3) |
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2 A Process Model for Data Mining---CRISP-DM |
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17 | (14) |
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2.1 History and Background |
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17 | (2) |
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2.2 The Basic Structure of CRISP-DM |
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19 | (12) |
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19 | (2) |
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2.2.2 The Process Model within a Phase |
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21 | (1) |
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2.2.3 The CRISP-DM Phases in More Detail |
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21 | (1) |
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2.2.3.1 Business Understanding |
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21 | (1) |
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2.2.3.2 Data Understanding |
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22 | (1) |
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23 | (2) |
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25 | (1) |
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26 | (1) |
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27 | (1) |
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2.2.4 The Typical Allocation of Effort across Project Phases |
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28 | (3) |
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II Predictive Modeling Tools |
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31 | (202) |
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3 Basic Tools for Understanding Data |
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33 | (48) |
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34 | (2) |
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36 | (12) |
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37 | (4) |
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3.2.2 Installing R on Windows |
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41 | (2) |
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3.2.3 Installing R on OS X |
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43 | (2) |
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3.2.4 Installing the RcmdrPlugin.BCA Package and Its Dependencies |
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45 | (3) |
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3.3 Reading Data into R Tutorial |
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48 | (9) |
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3.4 Creating Simple Summary Statistics Tutorial |
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57 | (6) |
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3.5 Frequency Distributions and Histograms Tutorial |
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63 | (10) |
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3.6 Contingency Tables Tutorial |
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73 | (8) |
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4 Multiple Linear Regression |
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81 | (36) |
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82 | (1) |
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4.2 Graphical and Algebraic Representation of the Single Predictor Problem |
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83 | (8) |
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4.2.1 The Probability of a Relationship between the Variables |
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89 | (2) |
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91 | (1) |
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91 | (7) |
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4.3.1 Categorical Predictors |
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92 | (2) |
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4.3.2 Nonlinear Relationships and Variable Transformations |
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94 | (3) |
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4.3.3 Too Many Predictor Variables: Overfitting and Adjusted R2 |
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97 | (1) |
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98 | (1) |
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4.5 Data Visualization and Linear Regression Tutorial |
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99 | (18) |
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117 | (30) |
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5.1 A Graphical Illustration of the Problem |
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118 | (3) |
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5.2 The Generalized Linear Model |
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121 | (3) |
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5.3 Logistic Regression Details |
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124 | (2) |
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5.4 Logistic Regression Tutorial |
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126 | (21) |
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5.4.1 Highly Targeted Database Marketing |
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126 | (1) |
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127 | (1) |
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5.4.3 Overfitting and Model Validation |
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128 | (19) |
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147 | (18) |
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6.1 Constructing Lift Charts |
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147 | (7) |
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6.1.1 Predict, Sort, and Compare to Actual Behavior |
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147 | (4) |
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6.1.2 Correcting Lift Charts for Oversampling |
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151 | (3) |
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154 | (5) |
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159 | (6) |
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165 | (22) |
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166 | (6) |
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7.1.1 Calibrating the Tree on an Estimation Sample |
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167 | (3) |
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7.1.2 Stopping Rules and Controlling Overfitting |
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170 | (2) |
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7.2 Trees Models Tutorial |
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172 | (15) |
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187 | (14) |
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8.1 The Biological Inspiration for Artificial Neural Networks |
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187 | (5) |
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8.2 Artificial Neural Networks as Predictive Models |
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192 | (2) |
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8.3 Neural Network Models Tutorial |
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194 | (7) |
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9 Putting It All Together |
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201 | (32) |
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9.1 Stepwise Variable Selection |
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201 | (3) |
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9.2 The Rapid Model Development Framework |
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204 | (6) |
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9.2.1 Up-Selling Using the Wesbrook Database |
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204 | (1) |
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9.2.2 Think about the Behavior That You Are Trying to Predict |
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205 | (1) |
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9.2.3 Carefully Examine the Variables Contained in the Data Set |
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205 | (2) |
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9.2.4 Use Decision Trees and Regression to Find the Important Predictor Variables |
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207 | (1) |
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9.2.5 Use a Neural Network to Examine Whether Nonlinear Relationships Are Present |
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208 | (1) |
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9.2.6 If There Are Nonlinear Relationships, Use Visualization to Find and Understand Them |
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209 | (1) |
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9.3 Applying the Rapid Development Framework Tutorial |
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210 | (23) |
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233 | (50) |
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10 Ward's Method of Cluster Analysis and Principal Components |
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235 | (24) |
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10.1 Summarizing Data Sets |
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235 | (1) |
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10.2 Ward's Method of Cluster Analysis |
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236 | (6) |
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10.2.1 A Single Variable Example |
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238 | (2) |
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10.2.2 Extension to Two or More Variables |
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240 | (2) |
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10.3 Principal Components |
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242 | (6) |
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10.4 Ward's Method Tutorial |
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248 | (11) |
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11 K-Centroids Partitioning Cluster Analysis |
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259 | (24) |
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11.1 How K-Centroid Clustering Works |
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260 | (4) |
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11.1.1 The Basic Algorithm to Find K-Centroids Clusters |
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260 | (1) |
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11.1.2 Specific K-Centroid Clustering Algorithms |
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261 | (3) |
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11.2 Cluster Types and the Nature of Customer Segments |
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264 | (3) |
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11.3 Methods to Assess Cluster Structure |
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267 | (8) |
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11.3.1 The Adjusted Rand Index to Assess Cluster Structure Reproducibility |
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268 | (6) |
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11.3.2 The Calinski-Harabasz Index to Assess within Cluster Homogeneity and between Cluster Separation |
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274 | (1) |
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11.4 K-Centroids Clustering Tutorial |
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275 | (8) |
Bibliography |
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283 | (4) |
Index |
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