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Data Mining in Finance: Advances in Relational and Hybrid Methods 2000 ed. [Hardback]

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An overview of major algorithmic approaches to predictive data mining, including statistical, neural networks, rule-based, decision-tree, and fuzzy-logic methods. The suitability of the approaches to financial data mining is examined. The focus is especially on relational data mining (RDM), which is a learning method able to learn more than other symbolic approaches. The authors argue that RDM is thus better suited for financial mining, because it is able to make better use of underlying domain knowledge. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

Data Mining in Finance presents a comprehensive overview of major algorithmic approaches to predictive data mining, including statistical, neural networks, ruled-based, decision-tree, and fuzzy-logic methods, and then examines the suitability of these approaches to financial data mining. The book focuses specifically on relational data mining (RDM), which is a learning method able to learn more expressive rules than other symbolic approaches. RDM is thus better suited for financial mining, because it is able to make greater use of underlying domain knowledge. Relational data mining also has a better ability to explain the discovered rules - an ability critical for avoiding spurious patterns which inevitably arise when the number of variables examined is very large. The earlier algorithms for relational data mining, also known as inductive logic programming (ILP), suffer from a relative computational inefficiency and have rather limited tools for processing numerical data.
Data Mining in Finance introduces a new approach, combining relational data mining with the analysis of statistical significance of discovered rules. This reduces the search space and speeds up the algorithms. The book also presents interactive and fuzzy-logic tools for `mining' the knowledge from the experts, further reducing the search space.
Data Mining in Finance contains a number of practical examples of forecasting S&P 500, exchange rates, stock directions, and rating stocks for portfolio, allowing interested readers to start building their own models. This book is an excellent reference for researchers and professionals in the fields of artificial intelligence, machine learning, data mining, knowledge discovery, and applied mathematics.
Foreword xi Gregory Piatetsky-Shapiro Preface xiii Acknowledgements xv The Scope and Methods of the Study Introduction 1(2) Problem definition 3(1) Data mining methodologies 4(5) Parameters 4(2) Problem ID and profile 6(1) Comparison of intelligent decision support methods 7(2) Modern methodologies in financial knowledge discovery 9(3) Deterministic dynamic system approach 9(1) Efficient market theory 10(1) Fundamental and technical analyses 11(1) Data mining and database management 12(2) Data mining: definitions and practice 14(3) Learning paradigms for data mining 17(2) Intellectual challenges in data mining 19(2) Numerical Data Mining Models with Financial Applications Statistical, autoregression models 21(9) ARIMA models 22(3) Steps in developing ARIMA model 25(2) Seasonal ARIMA 27(1) Exponential smoothing and trading day regression 28(1) Comparison with other methods 28(2) Financial applications of autoregression models 30(2) Instance--based learning and financial applications 32(4) Neural networks 36(4) Introduction 36(2) Steps 38(1) Recurrent networks 39(1) Dynamically modifying network structure 40(1) Neural networks and hybrid systems in finance 40(2) Recurrent neural networks in finance 42(2) Modular networks and genetic algorithms 44(3) Mixture of neural networks 44(1) Genetic algorithms for modular neural networks 45(2) Testing results and the complete round robin method 47(11) Introduction 47(1) Approach and method 47(5) Multithreaded implementation 52(2) Experiments with SP500 and neural networks 54(4) Expert mining 58(8) Interactive learning of monotone Boolean functions 66(5) Basic definitions and results 66(1) Algorithm for restoring a monotone Boolean function 67(2) Construction of Hansel chains 69(2) Rule-Based and Hybrid Financial Data Mining Decision tree and DNF learning 71(17) Advantages 71(1) Limitation: size of the tree 72(9) Constructing decision trees 81(3) Ensembles and hybrid methods for decision trees 84(3) Discussion 87(1) Decision tree and DNF learning in finance 88(7) Decision-tree methods in finance 88(1) Extracting decision tree and sets of rules for SP500 89(4) Sets of decision trees and DNF learning in finance 93(2) Extracting decision trees from neural networks 95(2) Approach 95(1) Trepan algorithm 96(1) Extracting decision trees from neural networks in finance 97(5) Predicting the Dollar-Mark exchange rate 97(2) Comparison of performance 99(3) Probabilistic rules and knowledge-based stochastic modeling 102(10) Probabilistic networks and probabilistic rules 103(3) The naive Bayes classifier 106(1) The mixture of experts 107(1) The hidden Markov model 108(3) Uncertainty of the structure of stochastic models 111(1) Knowledge-based stochastic modeling in finance 112(3) Markov chains in finance 112(2) Hidden Markov models in finance 114(1) Relational Data Mining (RDM) Introduction 115(3) Examples 118(5) Relational data mining paradigm 123(4) Challenges and obstacles in relational data mining 127(2) Theory of RDM 129(11) Data types in relational data mining 129(1) Relational representation of examples 130(5) First-order logic and rules 135(5) Background knowledge 140(6) Arguments constraints and skipping useless hypotheses 140(1) Initial rules and improving search of hypotheses 141(3) Relational data mining and relational databases 144(2) Algorithms: FOIL and FOCL 146(5) Introduction 146(1) FOIL 147(3) FOCL 150(1) Algorithm MMDR 151(15) Approach 151(3) MMDR algorithm and existence theorem 154(5) Fisher test 159(3) MMDR pseudocode 162(3) Comparison of FOIL and MMDR 165(1) Numerical relational data mining 166(3) Data types 169(10) Problem of data types 169(5) Numerical data type 174(1) Representative measurement theory 174(1) Critical analysis of data types in ABL 175(4) Empirical axiomatic theories: empirical contents of data 179(10) Definitions 179(2) Representation of data types in empirical axiomatic theories 181(5) Discovering empirical regularities as universal formulas 186(3) Financial Applications of Relational Data Mining Introduction 189(2) Transforming numeric data into relations 191(2) Hypotheses and probabilistic ``laws 193(3) Markov chains as probabilistic ``law in finance 196(3) Learning 199(3) Method of forecasting 202(2) Experiment 1 204(8) Forecasting Performance for hypotheses H1-H4 204(3) Forecasting performance for a specific regularity 207(2) Forecasting performance for Markovian expressions 209(3) Experiment 2 212(1) Interval stock forecast for portfolio selection 213(2) Predicate invention for financial applications: calendar effects 215(3) Conclusion 218(1) Comparison of Performance of RDM and other methods in financial applications Forecasting methods 219(1) Approach: measures of performance 220(2) Experiment 1: simulated trading performance 222(3) Experiment 1: comparison with ARIMA 225(2) Experiment 2: forecast and simulated gain 227(1) Experiment 2: analysis of performance 227(2) Conclusion 229(2) Fuzzy logic approach and its financial applications Knowledge discovery and fuzzy logic 231(4) ``Human logic and mathematical principles of uncertainty 235(4) Difference between fuzzy logic and probability theory 239(1) Basic concepts of fuzzy logic 240(8) Inference problems and solutions 248(4) Constructing coordinated contextual linguistic variables 252(14) Examples 252(7) Context space 259(3) Acquisition of fuzzy sets and membership function 262(3) Obtaining linguistic variables 265(1) Constructing coordinated fuzzy inference 266(12) Approach 266(2) Example 268(2) Advantages of ``exact complete context for fuzzy inference 270(8) Fuzzy logic in finance 278(7) Review of applications of fuzzy logic in finance 278(3) Fuzzy logic and technical analysis 281(4) References 285(14) Subject Index 299