This open access book presents new developments in the field of demographic forecasting, covering both mortality, fertility and migration. For each component emerging methods to forecast them are presented. Moreover, instruments for forecasting evaluation are provided. Bayesian models, nonparametric models, cohort approaches, elicitation of expert opinion, evaluation of probabilistic forecasts are some of the topics covered in the book. In addition, the book is accompanied by complementary material on the web allowing readers to practice with some of the ideas exposed in the book. Readers are encouraged to use this material to apply the new methods to their own data. The book is an important read for demographers, applied statisticians, as well as other social scientists interested or active in the field of population forecasting. Professional population forecasters in statistical agencies will find useful new ideas in various chapters.
Chapter
1. Introduction.
Chapter
2. Stochastic population forecasting:
A Bayesian approach based on evaluation by experts.
Chapter
3. Using expert
elicitation to build long-term projection assumptions.
Chapter
4.
Post-Transitional Demography and Convergence: What can we Learn from Half a
Century of World Population Prospects?.
Chapter
5. Projecting Proportionate
AgeSpecific Fertility Rates via Bayesian Skewed Processes.
Chapter
6. A
Three-component Approach to Model and Forecast Age-at-death Distributions.-
Chapter
7. Alternative forecasts of Danish life expectancy.
Chapter
8.
Coherent mortality forecasting with standards: low mortality serves as a
guide.
Chapter
9. European mortality forecasts: Are the targets still
moving?.
Chapter
10. Bayesian disaggregated forecasts: Internal migration in
Iceland.
Chapter
11. Forecasting origin-destination-age-sex migration flow
tables with multiplicative components.
Chapter
12. New Approaches to the
Conceptualization and Measurementof Age and Ageing.
Stefano Mazzuco is an Associate Professor in Demography at the Department of Statistical Sciences in the University of Padova, teaching both Demography and Statistics. He has also been a member of the PhD School in Statistics Board. He he has collaborated with the World Health Organisation (WHO) on the field of health inequality and its costs. He also has research interests in mortality pattern modelling, mainly focusing on age of death distribution modelling.
Nico Keilman is Professor of Demography at the Department of Economics, University of Oslo. He has taught Demography, Statistics, and Econometrics and has held research positions at Statistics Netherlands, the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, and Statistics Norway. He has more than forty years of research experience in the fields of population forecasting, modelling marriage and household dynamics, and mathematical demography. He was the editor of Demographic Research (2006-2011), and is member of the editorial boards of European Studies of Population, Population (Paris) and Demografie (Praha).
