In the past two years, the world has experienced how unsound economic practices can disrupt global economic and social order. Today's volatile global financial situation highlights the importance of managing risk and the consequences of poor decision making. "The Doom Loop in the Financial Sector" reveals an underlying paradox of risk management: the better we become at assessing risks, the more we feel comfortable taking them. Using the current financial crisis as a case study, renowned risk expert William Leiss engages with the new concept of 'black hole risk' - risk so great that estimating the potential downsides is impossible. His risk-centred analysis of the lead-up to the crisis reveals the practices that brought it about and how it became common practice to use limited risk assessments as a justification to gamble huge sums of money on unsound economic policies. In order to limit future catastrophes, Leiss recommends international cooperation to manage black hole risks. He believes that, failing this, humanity could be susceptible to a dangerous nexus of global disasters that would threaten human civilization as we know it.
Preface |
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ix | |
Acknowledgements |
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xvi | |
Chapter 1 Black Holes of Risk |
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1 | (20) |
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2 | (2) |
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4 | (3) |
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Testing the First Atomic Bomb |
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7 | (3) |
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10 | (4) |
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14 | (1) |
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The Convoluted Tale of the Particle Colliders |
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15 | (4) |
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A Reasonable Selection of Plausible Black-Hole Risks |
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19 | (2) |
Chapter 2 Systemic and Super-Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector |
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21 | (87) |
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21 | (7) |
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Systemic and Super-Systemic Risk in the Global Financial Sector |
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28 | (8) |
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A Brief Primer on Financial Derivatives |
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36 | (2) |
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Prelude to Global Financial Crisis |
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38 | (6) |
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44 | (2) |
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The Regulatory Response to Systemic Financial Risk |
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46 | (8) |
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A Vapid Risk Management Paradigm |
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54 | (4) |
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The "Standard Model" for Risk Management |
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58 | (3) |
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61 | (10) |
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71 | (4) |
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75 | (5) |
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80 | (4) |
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84 | (2) |
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Heterogeneity and Modularity |
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86 | (4) |
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The "Value at Risk" Model |
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90 | (3) |
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93 | (6) |
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99 | (9) |
Chapter 3 Controlling the Downside Risk |
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108 | (29) |
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Three Simple Steps for Good Risk Management |
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108 | (11) |
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Applying Precaution to Black-Hole Risks |
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119 | (5) |
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Black-Hole Risk in the Global Financial Sector |
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124 | (3) |
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Risk of a Coronal Mass Ejection |
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127 | (1) |
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Risk from a Smaller Asteroid |
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128 | (1) |
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129 | (1) |
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Risk of Nuclear Proliferation |
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130 | (2) |
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132 | (3) |
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Conclusion: The Ugly Reality of Non-Linearities |
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135 | (2) |
Appendix 1 Fragility in Complex Systems and the "Tipping Point" Problem |
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137 | (8) |
Appendix 2 A Basic Integrated Risk Management Framework |
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145 | (1) |
Table 2-1, Dimensions of Risk Management |
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146 | (2) |
Works Cited |
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148 | (10) |
Index |
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158 | |
William Leiss has been a professor at seven Canadian universities: Simon Fraser, Calgary, Regina, York, Toronto, Queen's and Ottawa. He is the author or co-author of eight previous books, including Mad Cows and Mother's Milk (McGill-Queen's, 2004) and In the Chamber of Risks (McGill-Queen's, 2001). For the past twenty years he has been a frequent consultant to government agencies and the private sector on risk management issues.