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  • Formāts: 642 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 13-Jun-2017
  • Izdevniecība: National Academies Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780309444484

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The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration finds that the long-term impact of immigration on the wages and employment of native-born workers overall is very small, and that any negative impacts are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born high school dropouts. First-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than are the native-born, but the second generation are among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. This report concludes that immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S.



More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, the first generation (foreign-born) and second generation (children of the foreign-born) comprise almost one in four Americans. It comes as little surprise, then, that many U.S. residents view immigration as a major policy issue facing the nation. Not only does immigration affect the environment in which everyone lives, learns, and works, but it also interacts with nearly every policy area of concern, from jobs and the economy, education, and health care, to federal, state, and local government budgets.



The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society, institutions, and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate that plays out at the national, state, and local levels. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration assesses the impact of dynamic immigration processes on economic and fiscal outcomes for the United States, a major destination of world population movements. This report will be a fundamental resource for policy makers and law makers at the federal, state, and local levels but extends to the general public, nongovernmental organizations, the business community, educational institutions, and the research community.

Table of Contents



Front Matter Summary PART I: BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT 1 Introduction 2 Immigration to the United States: Current Trends in Historical Perspective 3 Socioeconomic Outcomes of Immigrants PART II: ECONOMIC IMPACTS 4 Employment and Wage Impacts of Immigration: Theory 5 Employment and Wage Impacts of Immigration: Empirical Evidence 6 Wider Production, Consumption, and Economic Growth Impacts PART III: FISCAL IMPACTS 7 Estimating the Fiscal Impacts of Immigration - Conceptual Issues 8 Past and Future Fiscal Impacts of Immigrants on the Nation 9 State and Local Fiscal Effects of Immigration 10 Research Directions and Data Recommendations References Appendix: Biographical Sketches Committee on National Statistics
Summary 1(16)
PART I BACKGROUND AND CONTEXT
1 Introduction
17(16)
1.1 Context and Motivation
17(7)
1.2 Economic Impacts
24(2)
1.3 Fiscal Impacts
26(4)
1.4 Charge to the Panel
30(3)
2 Immigration to the United States: Current Trends in Historical Perspective
33(52)
2.1 Introduction
33(2)
2.2 Immigration Trends and Origins from 1820 to 2015
35(10)
2.3 Immigration Driven by Labor Demand
45(1)
2.4 The Net International Migration Rate and Its Contribution to Population Growth
46(5)
2.5 Past and Future Trends in the Stock of First and Second Generation Immigrant Populations
51(5)
2.6 Immigration and Changes in Race and Ethnic Composition
56(6)
2.7 Population Aging, the Baby Boom, and the Transition to an Immigrant Workforce
62(9)
2.8 From Traditional Gateways to New Destinations: The Changing Geography of Immigrant Settlement
71(8)
2.9 Conclusions
79(2)
2.10 Technical Annex on Counting Immigrants
81(4)
3 Socioeconomic Outcomes of Immigrants
85(80)
3.1 Introduction
85(1)
3.2 Education and Occupation Profiles
86(12)
3.3 Employment, Wage, and English-Language Assimilation Profiles
98(21)
3.4 Poverty and Welfare Utilization
119(13)
3.5 Conclusions
132(4)
3.6 Technical Annex of Tabulations and Regression Results
136(18)
3.7 Technical Annex on Occupational Categories
154(11)
PART II ECONOMIC IMPACTS
4 Employment and Wage Impacts of Immigration: Theory
165(32)
4.1 Introduction
165(1)
4.2 A Simple Model with a Single Type of Labor
166(9)
4.3 Employment Effects of Immigration with Elastic Labor Supply
175(3)
4.4 Multiple Types of Labor
178(9)
4.5 Multiple Technologies and Multiple Goods
187(6)
4.6 Responses by Natives
193(1)
4.7 The Link Between Immigration and Frictional Unemployment
193(2)
4.8 Conclusions
195(2)
5 Employment and Wage Impacts of Immigration: Empirical Evidence
197(82)
5.1 Introduction
197(5)
5.2 Some Basic Conceptual and Empirical Issues
202(8)
5.3 Spatial (cross-area) Studies
210(14)
5.4 Aggregate Skill Cell and Structural Studies
224(15)
5.5 A Cross-Study Comparison of Immigrants' Impact on Wages
239(9)
5.6 High-Skilled Labor Markets and Innovation
248(16)
5.7 Key Messages and Conclusions
264(5)
5.8 Annex: Summary Comparison of Selected Wage and Employment Impact Studies for the United States
269(5)
5.9 Technical Notes for the Cross-Study Comparison of the Magnitudes of Immigrants' Impact on Wages
274(5)
6 Wider Production, Consumption, and Economic Growth Impacts
279(44)
6.1 Introduction
279(3)
6.2 Impact on Overall Economic Activity (GDP)
282(4)
6.3 Sectoral and Geographic Impacts
286(3)
6.4 Impact on Prices of Consumer Goods and Cost of Living
289(8)
6.5 The Role of Immigration in Long-Run Economic Growth
297(15)
6.6 Beyond GDP---Nonmarket Goods and Services and the Informal Economy
312(4)
6.7 Conclusions
316(1)
6.8 Technical Annex on Models of Endogenous Growth in a Closed Economy
317(6)
PART III FISCAL IMPACTS
7 Estimating the Fiscal Impacts of Immigration---Conceptual Issues
323(36)
7.1 Introduction
323(5)
7.2 Sources of Fiscal Costs and Benefits
328(3)
7.3 Static and Dynamic Accounting Approaches
331(6)
7.4 Sources of Uncertainty: Assumptions and Scenario Choices in Fiscal Estimates
337(15)
7.5 Distributive Fiscal Effects---Federal, State, and Local
352(2)
7.6 Summary and Key Points
354(5)
8 Past and Future Fiscal Impacts of Immigrants on the Nation
359(136)
8.1 Introduction
359(1)
8.2 Historical Fiscal Impacts of Immigration, 1994-2013
360(47)
8.3 Forecasts of Lifetime Net Fiscal Impacts
407(56)
8.4 Annex: Technical Documentation for the Fiscal Estimates
463(32)
9 State and Local Fiscal Effects of Immigration
495(72)
9.1 Introduction
495(2)
9.2 Measurement Methods
497(7)
9.3 Geographic and Demographic Distribution of Immigrants
504(12)
9.4 Fiscal Variation Among States, 2011-2013
516(6)
9.5 Aggregate Fiscal Effects by State
522(3)
9.6 Net Effects of Immigration on State and Local Budgets
525(11)
9.7 Alternative Treatments of Education Costs
536(1)
9.8 Marginal Versus Average Fixed Costs
537(4)
9.9 Conclusions
541(3)
9.10 Technical Annex: Supplemental Tables
544(23)
10 Research Directions and Data Recommendations
567(14)
10.1 Counting and Characterizing Immigrants and Their Descendants
568(3)
10.2 Information on Legal Status
571(3)
10.3 Measurement of Immigration and Emigration Patterns
574(1)
10.4 Exploiting Multiple Data Sources
575(6)
References 581(26)
Appendix Biographical Sketches 607