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E-grāmata: Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets 2008 illustrated edition [World Scientific e-book]

Edited by (Univ Of Wisconsin-madison, Usa), Edited by (Univ Of British Columbia, Canada; London Sch Of Economics, Uk & Korea Inst Of Science And Technology, Korea), Edited by (Univ Of British Columbia, Canada)
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Rich with data, although not always with cash for the players, gambling is an exercise in analysis and risk as much as it is a source of entertainment. This edition includes articles from academics and others interested in both data and profits and is fully updated to consider several important trends in the past few years, including rebates on wagers, the growth of off-track betting, increases in corporate involvement, and changes in the structure of returns. Contributors offer studies on the psychology of gambling, preferences of racetrack bettors, economic and mathematical effects, the efficiency of "win markets" and the favorite-longshot bias, place and show anomalies in prices (as compared to handicapping), and the efficiency of exotic wagering markets. They also offer 12 case studies and other research on gambling in the Commonwealth and Asia. The editors provide two additional annotated bibliographies, including one devoted to handicapping books. Annotation ©2008 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
Preface to 2008 Edition xiii
Preface in 1994 Edition xix
List of Contributors xxi
Acknowledgments xxv
Introduction 1
PART I. PSYCHOLOGICAL STUDIES
Introduction to Psychological Studies
7
D.B. Hausch, V.S.Y. Lo and W.T. Ziemba
Odds Adjustments by American Horse-Race Bettors
9
R.M. Griffith
Stability of Choices among Uncertain Alternatives
15
W.H. McGlothlin
A Footnote on Horse Race Betting
27
R.M. Griffith
Biases in Betting: An Application of Laboratory Findings
31
M.A. Metzger
PART II. UTILITY PREFERENCES OF RACETRACK BETTORS
Introduction to Utility Preferences of Racetrack Bettors
39
D.B. Hausch, V.S.Y. Lo and W.T. Ziemba
On the Robustness of the Arrow-Pratt Risk Aversion Measure
41
J.G. Kallberg and W.T. Ziemba
Utility Analysis and Group Behavior: An Empirical Study
47
M. Weitzman
Gambling and Rationality
57
R.N. Rosett
Probability and Utility Estimates for Racetrack Bettors
71
M.M. Ali
PART III. ECONOMIC AND MATHEMATICAL INSIGHTS
Introduction to Economic and Mathematical Insights
87
D.B. Hausch, V.S.Y. Lo and W.T. Ziemba
Optimal Horse Race Bets
93
R. Isaacs
Concavity Properties of Racetrack Betting Models
99
J.G. Kallberg and W.T. Ziemba
Optimal Bets in Pari-Mutuel Systems
109
N. Levin
Growth versus Security in Dynamic Investment Analysis
127
L.C. MacLean, W.T. Ziemba and G. Blazenko
Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: A Multinomial Logit Model for Handicapping Horse Races
151
R.N. Bolton and R.G. Chapman
Still Searching for Positive Returns at the Track: Empirical Results From 2,000 Hong Kong Races
173
R.G. Chapman
Computer Based Horse Race Handicapping and Wagering Systems: A Report
183
W. Benter
An Empirical Cross-Validation of Alternative Classification Strategies Applied to Harness Racing Data for Win Bets
199
L.H. Ludlow
Assigning Probabilities to the Outcomes of Multi-Entry Competitions
213
D.A. Harville
Permutation Probabilities as Models for Horse Races
219
R.J. Henery
Estimating the Probabilities of the Outcomes of a Horse Race (Alternatives to the Harville Formulas)
225
H.S. Stern
Application of Running Time Distribution Models in Japan
237
V.S.Y. Lo
PART IV. EFFICIENCY OF WIN MARKETS AND THE FAVORITE-LONGSHOT BIAS
Introduction to the Efficiency of Win Markets and the Favorite-Longshot Bias
251
D.B. Hausch, V.S.Y. Lo and W.T. Ziemba
Anomalies – Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries
255
R. Thaler and W.T. Ziemba
Horse Racing: Testing the Efficient Markets Model
269
W.W. Snyder
Back on the Track with the Efficient Markets Hypothesis
279
R.L. Loosey and J.C. Talbott, Jr.
Subjective Information and Market Efficiency in a Betting Model
285
S. Figlewski
Racetrack Betting and Informed Behavior
299
P. Asch, B.G. Malkiel and R.E. Quandt
Applications of Logit Models in Racetrack Data
307
V.S.Y. Lo
Betting and Equilibrium
315
R.E. Quandt
Differences of Opinion at the Racetrack
323
S.R. Blough
Prices of State Contingent Claims with Insider Traders, and the Favourite-Longshot Bias
343
H.S. Shin
PART V. PRICES VERSUS HANDICAPPING: PLACE AND SHOW ANOMALIES
Introduction to Prices versus Handicapping: Place and Show Anomalies
355
D.B. Hausch, V.S.Y. Lo and W.T. Ziemba
Market Efficiency in Racetrack Betting
357
P. Asch, B.G. Malkiel and R.E. Quandt
Market Efficiency in Racetrack Betting: Further Evidence and a Correction
369
P. Asch, B.G. Malkiel and R.E. Quandt
Efficiency of the Market for Racetrack Betting
373
D.B. Hausch, W.T. Ziemba and M.R. Rubinstein
Transactions Costs, Extent of Inefficiencies, Entries and Multiple Wagers in a Racetrack Betting Model
391
D.B. Hausch and W.T. Ziemba
Arbitrage Strategies for Cross-Track Betting on Major Horse Races
405
D.B. Hausch and W.T. Ziemba
Locks at the Racetrack
423
D.B. Hausch and W.T. Ziemba
Racetrack Betting – An Example of a Market with Efficient Arbitrage
431
J.R. Ritter
PART VI. EFFICIENCY OF EXOTIC WAGERING MARKETS
Introduction to the Efficiency of Exotic Wagering Markets
445
D.B. Hausch, V.S.Y. Lo and W.T. Ziemba
Some Evidence of the Efficiency of a Speculative Market
447
M.M. Ali
Efficiency and Profitability in Exotic Bets
453
P. Asch and R.E. Quandt
How Accurately do Bettors Bet on Doubles?
465
V.S.Y. Lo and K. Busche
Pricing Exotic Racetrack Wagers
469
D.B. Hausch, V.S.Y. Lo and W.T. Ziemba
On the Efficiency of the Market for Double (Quinella) Bets at a Finnish Racetrack
485
A. Kanto and G. Rosenqvist
Efficient Market Adjustment of Odds Prices to Reflect Track Biases
499
B.R. Canfield, B. Fauman and W.T. Ziemba
Post Position Bias; An Econometric Analysis of the 1987 Season at Exhibition Park
511
S. Betton
PART VII. RESEARCH IN THE COMMONWEALTH AND ASIA
Introduction to the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets in England
529
D.B. Hausch, V.S.Y. Lo and W.T. Ziemba
On the Efficiency and Equity of Betting Markets
533
J. Dowie
Winning Systems? Some Further Evidence on Insiders and Outsiders in British Horse Race Betting
545
N.F.R. Crafts
An Examination of Market Efficiency in British Racetrack Betting
551
P.E. Gabriel and J.R. Marsden
An Examination of Market Efficiency in British Racetrack Betting: Errata and Corrections
563
P.E. Gabriel and J.R. Marsden
The Dr. Z Betting System in England
567
W.T. Ziemba and D.B. Hausch
The Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Markets: Australian Evidence
575
R. Bird and M. McCrae
Anomalies in the Gambling Market
583
R.H. Tuckwell
Tests of the Efficiency of Racetrack Betting Using Bookmaker Odds
593
R. Bird and M. McCrae
An Exception to the Risk Preference Anomaly
605
K. Busche and C.D. Hall
Efficient Market Results in an Asian Setting
615
K. Busche
Cross-Track Betting: Is the Grass Greener on the Other Side?
617
S.M. Leong and K.G. Lim
Annotated Additional Bibliography 631
Annotated Bibliography of Handicapping Books 639
Index 643
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