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xvii | |
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xxv | |
About the Authors |
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xxix | |
Preface |
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xxxi | |
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Chapter 1 Review of World Energy Situation and China's Energy Security |
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1 | (1) |
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1.1 Review of World Energy Development |
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1 | (1) |
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1.1.1 Global Fossil Energy Reserves Are Abundant but Unevenly Distributed |
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1 | (4) |
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1.1.2 Global Primary Energy Consumption Hits a Record High |
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5 | (2) |
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1.1.3 Global Renewable Energy Production and Consumption Grow Steadily |
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7 | (3) |
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1.1.4 Turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa and European Debt Crisis Cause Drastic Fluctuation to International Crude Oil Price |
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10 | (1) |
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1.2 New Trends in World Energy Development |
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11 | (11) |
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1.2.1 Future World Energy Demand Will Continue to Increase |
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11 | (1) |
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1.2.2 Global Financial Crisis Provides New Opportunities for the Development of Clean and Renewable Energy |
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12 | (1) |
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1.2.3 Fukushima Nuclear Accident Changes the World Nuclear Energy Development Plan |
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13 | (3) |
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1.2.4 Shale Gas Overturns the Global Natural Gas Structure |
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16 | (2) |
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1.2.5 World Energy Consumption Structure Presents a Clean and Low-carbon Trend |
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18 | (3) |
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1.2.6 Primary Energy Consumption Structure Varies in Different Countries |
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21 | (1) |
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1.3 Global Energy Trade Characteristics Analysis |
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22 | (5) |
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1.3.1 Characteristics of Global Oil Trade |
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22 | (2) |
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1.3.2 Characteristics of World Natural Gas Trade |
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24 | (1) |
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1.3.3 Characteristics of World Coal Trade |
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24 | (3) |
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1.4 Energy Consumption Characteristics and Energy Security in China |
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27 | (12) |
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1.4.1 Energy Consumption Characteristics in China |
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27 | (7) |
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1.4.2 Energy Security History in China |
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34 | (3) |
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1.4.3 Current Situation of Energy Security in China |
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37 | (2) |
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1.5 Interpretation and Understanding of Energy Security |
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39 | (4) |
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1.5.1 Definition of Energy Security |
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39 | (1) |
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1.5.2 Connotation and Evolution of Energy Security |
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40 | (3) |
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43 | (2) |
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Chapter 2 World Energy Geopolitics Development and China's Energy Diplomacy |
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45 | (1) |
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2.1 Evolution of World Energy Geopolitical Relation |
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45 | (1) |
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2.1.1 Britain and America's Conquest in the Middle East |
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45 | (5) |
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2.1.2 Confrontation between TEA and OPEC |
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50 | (3) |
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2.2 New Pattern of Energy Geopolitics in the World |
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53 | (4) |
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2.2.1 America Seeking for Oil Hegemony |
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53 | (1) |
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2.2.2 Russia Skilled in Playing the "Energy Card" |
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54 | (1) |
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2.2.3 EU and Japan in Contradiction |
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55 | (1) |
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2.2.4 Rising Emerging Countries |
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55 | (1) |
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2.2.5 OPEC Suffering Impact |
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56 | (1) |
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2.3 Geopolitical Pattern of Five Major Oil-producing Regions |
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57 | (10) |
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2.3.1 Geopolitical Pattern of Russia in Central Asia |
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57 | (2) |
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2.3.2 Geopolitical Pattern of the Middle East |
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59 | (3) |
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2.3.3 Geopolitical Pattern in Africa |
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62 | (2) |
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2.3.4 Geopolitical Pattern in Latin America |
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64 | (1) |
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2.3.5 Geopolitical Pattern of Asia-Pacific |
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65 | (2) |
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2.4 Transition of China's Energy Role |
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67 | (2) |
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2.4.1 Transition from Oil-poor Country to Oil-exporting Country |
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67 | (2) |
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2.4.2 Transition from Oil-exporting Country to Oil-importing Country |
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69 | (1) |
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2.5 China's Energy Diplomacy |
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69 | (8) |
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2.5.1 China's Energy Diplomacy in Russia in Central Asia |
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70 | (2) |
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2.5.2 China's Energy Diplomacy in the Middle East |
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72 | (1) |
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2.5.3 China's Energy Diplomacy in Africa |
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73 | (1) |
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2.5.4 China's Energy Diplomacy in Latin America |
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74 | (1) |
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2.5.5 China's Energy Diplomacy in Asia-Pacific |
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75 | (2) |
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77 | (2) |
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Chapter 3 Oil Price and Energy Security |
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79 | (1) |
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3.1 The World's Oil Price System and Its Evolution |
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79 | (1) |
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3.1.1 Formation of the World's Oil Price System |
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79 | (1) |
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3.1.2 Evolution of the Oil Price System |
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80 | (4) |
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3.2 Analysis on International Oil Price Fluctuation Characteristics and Influence |
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84 | (29) |
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3.2.1 Oil Price Fluctuation Characteristics |
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84 | (6) |
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3.2.2 Main Influencing Factors of Oil Price Fluctuation |
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90 | (9) |
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3.2.3 Impact of Oil Price Fluctuation on the Economy and Finance |
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99 | (14) |
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3.3 Development of Oil Finance and Its Risk Analysis |
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113 | (7) |
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3.3.1 Significance of the Development of Oil Finance |
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113 | (3) |
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3.3.2 The Risks Involved in the Development of Oil Finance |
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116 | (1) |
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3.3.3 Oil Future Market Speculation and Price Fluctuation |
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117 | (3) |
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3.4 Oil Prices and China's Energy Security |
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120 | (22) |
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3.4.1 Oil Pricing Mechanism and China's Energy Security |
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120 | (2) |
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3.4.2 Contradictions between Energy Security and Food Security Caused by Oil Prices |
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122 | (5) |
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3.4.3 Future Oil Price Trend and China's Energy Security |
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127 | (4) |
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3.4.4 Oil Price and China's Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) |
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131 | (11) |
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142 | (1) |
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Chapter 4 Assessment of Energy Import and Transportation Risk of China |
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143 | (1) |
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4.1 Analysis on Transportation Risk of the Main Energy Trade Channel of China |
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143 | (1) |
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4.1.1 Main Transportation Channel for the Energy Trade of China |
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143 | (5) |
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4.1.2 Analysis of the Main Risk Faced by Marine Transportation of Oil |
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148 | (3) |
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4.1.3 China's Strategy to Reduce the Risk of Energy Trade Transportation |
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151 | (3) |
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4.2 Comparative Analysis on Comprehensive Risk of China's Oil Import |
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154 | (14) |
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4.2.1 Differences between Crude Oil and Refined Oil Trades in China |
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154 | (3) |
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4.2.2 Risk Assessment Model of the Investment Portfolio of Oil Import |
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157 | (2) |
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4.2.3 Comparison between Specific Risk of Crude Oil and Refined Oil Imports in China |
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159 | (4) |
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4.2.4 Comparison of the System Risk of Oil Imports in China |
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163 | (4) |
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167 | (1) |
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4.3 Comparative Analysis of Sino-US Crude Oil Import Risks |
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168 | (13) |
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4.3.1 Sino-US Crude Oil Import Status and External Dependence |
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168 | (1) |
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4.3.2 Differences between Sino-US Crude Oil Import Sources and Diversification |
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169 | (4) |
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4.3.3 Differences in the Strategy of Sino-US Crude Oil Imports |
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173 | (6) |
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4.3.4 Comparison of Sino-US Crude Oil Import Strategies |
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179 | (1) |
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179 | (2) |
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4.4 Analysis of China's Coal Trade and Transportation Risk |
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181 | (4) |
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4.4.1 History and Current Situation of China's Coal Trade |
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181 | (1) |
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4.4.2 Analysis of Coal Trade and Transportation Risk |
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182 | (3) |
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4.5 Analysis of China's Natural Gas Trade and Transportation Risk |
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185 | (5) |
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4.5.1 Analysis of the Current Situation of Natural Gas Supply and Demand in China |
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185 | (1) |
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4.5.2 China's Natural Gas Trade and Transportation Risks |
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186 | (4) |
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190 | (3) |
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Chapter 5 Research on China's Energy Reserve Strategy |
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193 | (1) |
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5.1 Status and Characteristics of Global Energy Reserves |
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193 | (1) |
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5.1.1 History and Status of Global Energy Reserves |
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193 | (2) |
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5.1.2 Characteristics and Strategies of Strategic Oil Reserves in the United States |
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195 | (5) |
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5.2 Best Supplement Time and Supplement Strategies of China's Strategic Oil Reserves |
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200 | (1) |
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5.2.1 Planning on Strategic Oil Reserve of China |
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200 | (1) |
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5.2.2 Planning Model for Uncertain Dynamic of Strategic Oil Reserves in China |
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201 | (4) |
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5.2.3 The Optimal Supplement Time and Strategy of China's Strategic Oil Reserves |
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205 | (5) |
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5.3 Optimal Release Strategy of China's Strategic Oil Reserves under Unexpected Incidents |
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210 | (16) |
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5.3.1 Dynamic Planning Model of Strategic Oil Reserve Strategy |
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210 | (6) |
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5.3.2 Impact of Different Emergencies on International Oil Prices |
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216 | (2) |
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5.3.3 Optimal Strategy of Strategic Oil Reserves in China under Different Emergencies |
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218 | (3) |
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5.3.4 Impact of Supplement and Release of China's Strategic Oil Reserves on International Oil Prices |
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221 | (1) |
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5.3.5 Strategy on Refined Oil Reserve of China |
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222 | (4) |
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5.4 Strategy on Natural Gas Reserve of China |
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226 | (4) |
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5.4.1 Natural Gas Reserve Patterns and Characteristics of the World's Typical Countries |
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226 | (2) |
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5.4.2 Status and Strategy of Natural Gas Reserves in China |
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228 | (2) |
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5.5 Strategy on Coal Reserves of China |
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230 | (3) |
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5.5.1 Status of China's Coal Reserves |
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230 | (2) |
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5.5.2 Recommendations on Coal Reserve Strategy |
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232 | (1) |
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233 | (2) |
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Chapter 6 Key Provincial Sectors for Energy Conservation in China |
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235 | (1) |
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235 | (3) |
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238 | (2) |
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6.3 Key Province for Energy Conservation in Agriculture Sector (SI) |
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240 | (1) |
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6.4 Key for Energy Conservation in Industrial Sectors (S2-S40) |
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240 | (5) |
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6.5 Energy Consumption in Construction Industry (S41) |
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245 | (1) |
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6.6 Key (ij) for Energy Conservation in the Tertiary Industry (S42-S63) |
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246 | (1) |
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6.7 Rural and Urban Residential Energy Consumption (S64 and S65) |
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246 | (3) |
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249 | (4) |
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Chapter 7 Effects of Clean and Renewable Energy on National Energy Security |
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253 | (1) |
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7.1 Substitution Effect of World Clean and Renewable Energy on Fossil Fuels |
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253 | (1) |
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7.1.1 Growth Rates of Clean and Renewable Energy |
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253 | (4) |
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7.1.2 The Proportion of Clean and Renewable Energy Will Continue to Increase in the Future |
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257 | (1) |
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7.2 Substitution Effect of China's Clean and Renewable Energy on Fossil Fuels |
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258 | (3) |
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7.2.1 China's Clean and Renewable Energy Is Growing Rapidly |
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258 | (2) |
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7.2.2 China Is Rich in Water Resources |
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260 | (1) |
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7.2.3 China's Nuclear Power Is Expected to Account for 4-5% of the Total Installed Capacity of Electricity in 2020 |
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261 | (1) |
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7.2.4 China's Wind Power Is Developing Rapidly |
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261 | (5) |
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7.2.5 China Has Broad Solar Energy Utilization Prospects |
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263 | (1) |
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7.2.6 Status and Potential of Biomass Energy Development |
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264 | (2) |
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7.3 International Comparison of Clean and Renewable Energy Development Policies |
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266 | (4) |
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266 | (1) |
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266 | (2) |
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268 | (1) |
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269 | (1) |
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270 | (1) |
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Chapter 8 Energy Poverty and Energy Use Security |
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271 | (1) |
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8.1 Relationship between Energy Poverty and Enemy Use Security |
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271 | (1) |
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8.1.1 Energy Poverty and International Status Thereof |
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271 | (2) |
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8.1.2 China's current Situation of Energy Poverty |
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273 | (7) |
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8.2 Research on Major Influencing Factors of Energy Poverty |
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280 | (1) |
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8.2.1 Influencing Factors |
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280 | (6) |
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8.2.2 Method Introduction |
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286 | (1) |
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8.2.3 Model Results and Analysis |
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287 | (4) |
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8.3 Regional Energy Poverty Assessment in China |
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291 | (1) |
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8.3.1 Energy Development Index in Developing Countries |
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291 | (1) |
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8.3.2 Energy Poverty Index of Provinces in China |
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292 | (4) |
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296 | (1) |
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297 | (2) |
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Chapter 9 Energy Supply Crisis and Economic Security Research |
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299 | (1) |
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9.1 Analysis on the History and Impacts of World Energy Crisis |
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299 | (1) |
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9.1.1 Historical Review of the World Energy Crisis |
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300 | (1) |
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9.1.2 Analysis on the Impact of Oil Crisis on Global Macro-economy |
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301 | (5) |
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9.2 Analysis of Energy Supply Shortage Events in China |
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306 | (4) |
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9.2.1 Typical Events of Energy Supply Shortage in China in Recent Years |
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306 | (2) |
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9.2.2 Analysis on the Influencing Factors of China's Energy Supply Shortage |
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308 | (2) |
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9.3 Research of Social Economic Effects of Oil Supply Shortage |
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310 | (7) |
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9.3.1 Scenario Setting of Crude Oil Supply Shortage |
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310 | (1) |
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9.3.2 Impact of Crude Oil Supply Shortage on China's Social Economy |
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311 | (6) |
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9.4 Research on the Social Economic Effects of the Increase in International Crude Oil Price |
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317 | (8) |
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9.4.1 Scenario Setting of the Increase in International Crude Oil Price |
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318 | (1) |
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9.4.2 Impact of Increase in International Crude Oil Price on China's Social Economy |
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318 | (7) |
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9.5 Analysis on the Emergency Plan of the Refined Oil Supply Shortage |
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325 | (10) |
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9.5.1 Refined Oil Supply System in China |
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326 | (4) |
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330 | (1) |
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9.5.3 Comparison among the Effects of Different Emergency Plans for Dealing with Refined Oil Supply Shortage |
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331 | (4) |
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335 | (4) |
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Chapter 10 Energy Consumption and Public Health in China |
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339 | (1) |
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10.1 Overview of Impact on Environment and Public Health of Energy Consumption |
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339 | (1) |
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10.1.1 Overview of Impact on Environment of Energy Consumption |
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339 | (2) |
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10.1.2 Overview of Research on Public Health Effect Caused by Environmental Pollution |
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341 | (1) |
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10.1.3 Overview of Public Health Effect Caused by Regional Pollution and Industrial Emission |
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342 | (1) |
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10.2 Economic Assessment of Urban Air Pollution and Public Health Effect |
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343 | (9) |
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10.2.1 Research Background |
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343 | (1) |
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10.2.2 Evaluation Method and Data Resource of Environmental Health Effect |
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344 | (1) |
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10.2.3 Environmental Health Effect and Its Economic Loss of Urban Air Pollutant |
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344 | (8) |
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352 | (1) |
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10.3 Economic Evaluation of Public Health Effect due to Sector Pollutant Emission |
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352 | (19) |
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10.3.1 Evaluation Method and Data Resource of Impact on Public Health by Sector Pollutant Emission |
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354 | (8) |
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10.3.2 Health Effects and Economic Loss Evaluation of Sector Emission |
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362 | (1) |
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10.3.3 Economic Loss Evaluation of Sectors' Marginal Health Impact |
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363 | (4) |
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10.3.4 Economic Loss Evaluation of Energy Marginal Health Impact |
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367 | (2) |
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369 | (2) |
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10.4 Main Conclusions and Suggestions |
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371 | (6) |
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Chapter 11 Comprehensive Evaluation of National Energy Security |
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377 | (1) |
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11.1 Comparison of Energy Security Policies of Typical Countries |
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377 | (2) |
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11.1.1 Increase the Energy Technology Investment and Try Every Possible Way to Realize the Energy Technology Break Out |
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379 | (2) |
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11.1.2 Implementing Diversification Strategy for Energy Import Trading and Dispersing Energy Import Risk |
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381 | (2) |
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11.1.3 Energy-importing Countries made Great Efforts to Develop Strategic Reserves and Improve Energy Emergency Ability |
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383 | (1) |
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11.1.4 Optimizing Energy Consumption Structure and Encouraging Development of Clear Renewable Resource |
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384 | (3) |
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11.1.5 Paying Attention to Energy Geopolitics and Developing Diversified Diplomacy and Cooperation of Energy |
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387 | (1) |
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11.1.6 Establishing Efficient Energy Security Management Institution and Making Energy Emergency Laws and Regulations |
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388 | (2) |
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11.2 Comprehensive Evaluation Index System and Method for Energy Security |
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390 | (2) |
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11.2.1 Comprehensive Evaluation Index System of Energy Security |
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390 | (2) |
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11.2.2 Comprehensive Evaluation Mode of Energy Security |
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392 | (1) |
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11.3 Comparison of Energy Supply Security in Typical Countries |
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392 | (12) |
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11.3.1 The Energy Supply Security Index of Typical Developed Countries Generally Presented a Fluctuant Rising Trend |
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396 | (4) |
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11.3.2 Energy Supply Security Index of Typical Developing Countries Presented Declining Trend Generally |
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400 | (3) |
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11.3.3 After the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, Most Countries' Energy Supply Security Index Rose Dramatically |
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403 | (1) |
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404 | (1) |
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11.4 Overall Evaluation of China's Energy Security against the Background of Climate Change |
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404 | (10) |
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11.4.1 Impacts of Climate Change on China's Energy Security Policy |
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405 | (1) |
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11.4.2 Data Sources and Pretreatment |
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406 | (1) |
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11.4.3 China's Energy Supply Security Index Increased First and Then Decreased |
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407 | (3) |
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11.4.4 China's Energy Use Security Index Rose in Fluctuations |
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410 | (2) |
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11.4.5 Climate Protection and China's Energy Security |
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412 | (1) |
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413 | (1) |
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414 | (1) |
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Chapter 12 Challenges and Outlook of China's Energy Security |
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415 | (1) |
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12.1 Challenges of China's Energy Security |
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415 | (1) |
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12.1.1 Challenge of Rapid Energy Consumption Growth |
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415 | (1) |
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12.1.2 Challenge of Diversified Factors Threatening Energy Security |
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416 | (1) |
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12.1.3 Challenge of Transformation from Single Security to Multiple Security |
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417 | (1) |
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12.1.4 Challenge Brought by Global Climate Change |
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418 | (1) |
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12.1.5 Challenge to Control and Protect Environment |
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418 | (1) |
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12.1.6 Challenge to Control Total Energy Consumption |
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419 | (2) |
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12.2 Outlook of China's Energy Supply and Demand |
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421 | (4) |
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12.2.1 Growth Rate of Energy Demand Falls Back Gradually but with Many Uncertainties in the Fall-back Degree |
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421 | (1) |
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12.2.2 Proportion of Coal Consumption Decreases Gradually, but Those of Natural Gas and Renewable Energy Consumption Increase |
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422 | (1) |
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12.2.3 Output Growth of Crude Oil and Coal Slow Down Gradually and Clean Low-carbon Energy Flourishes Rapidly on the Whole |
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422 | (1) |
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12.2.4 As Important Places of Energy Production Relocate Toward the Western China, Large-scale and Long-distance Energy Allocation and Transportation Will Cause New Problems of Security and Management |
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423 | (1) |
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12.2.5 Implementing Total Quantity Control Policies Suffers from Predicament and Completing Objectives Depend on Policy Priority |
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424 | (1) |
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12.3 Outlook of China's Energy Security |
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425 | (5) |
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12.3.1 Energy Import Keeps Growing and Dependence on Foreign Energy Intensifies Continuously |
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425 | (1) |
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12.3.2 Diversify Energy Transport Corridors and Declining Transportation Risk |
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425 | (1) |
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12.3.3 The Energy Reserve System will be Relative Completed with a Vast Scale of National Energy Reserves |
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426 | (1) |
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12.3.4 Further Deepening Reform of Energy Marketing and Gradually Optimized Price System |
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427 | (1) |
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12.3.5 Although the Population under Energy Poverty Decreases Rapidly, China Still Has a Long Way to Go to Thoroughly Eliminate Energy Poverty |
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428 | (2) |
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12.4 Countermeasures and Suggestions for Safeguarding Energy Security of China |
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430 | (1) |
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12.4.1 Optimize Storage and Transportation --- Marketing - Cooperation Systems and construct National Energy Security Framework |
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430 | (3) |
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12.4.2 Optimize Industrial Structure and Realize Low-carbon Development Path |
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430 | (1) |
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12.4.3 Realize Diversification of Energy Import and Reduce Risk of Import Transportation |
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431 | (1) |
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12.4.4 Realize Industrialization of Renewable Energy by Financial Tax Means |
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431 | (1) |
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12.4.5 Strengthen Planning and Macro-control and Meet Demand for Energy Investment |
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431 | (1) |
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12.4.6 Establish the Energy Security Early-warning System and Protect Energy Supply Security |
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432 | (1) |
References |
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433 | (14) |
Index |
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447 | |