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E-grāmata: Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Methods and Preliminary Results

  • Formāts: 178 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 28-Nov-2007
  • Izdevniecība: National Academies Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780309108270
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  • Formāts: 178 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 28-Nov-2007
  • Izdevniecība: National Academies Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780309108270
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The U.S. Climate Change Science Program (CCSP) coordinates the efforts of 13 federal agencies to understand why climate is changing, to improve predictions about how it will change in the future, and to use that information to assess impacts on human systems and ecosystems and to better support decision making. Evaluating Progress of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program is the first review of the CCSP's progress since the program was established in 2002. It lays out a method for evaluating the CCSP, and uses that method to assess the strengths and weaknesses of the entire program and to identify areas where progress has not met expectations. The committee found that the program has made good progress in documenting and understanding temperature trends and related environmental changes on a global scale, as well as in understanding the influence of human activities on these observed changes. The ability to predict future climate changes also has improved, but efforts to understand the impacts of such changes on society and analyze mitigation and adaptation strategies are still relatively immature. The program also has not met expectations in supporting decision making, studying regional impacts, and communicating with a wider group of stakeholders.

Table of Contents



Front Matter Summary 1 Introduction Part I Methods and Results 2 Process for Evaluating Progress: Task 1a 3 Preliminary Assessment of CCSP Progress Part I References Part II Detailed Supporting Analysis 4 Progress Toward the Research Elements 5 Progress Toward the Cross-Cutting Issues Part II References Appendixes Appendix A: Status of CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products Appendix B: Supplemental Information on Human Contributions and Responses Appendix C: Matrix to Evaluate CCSP Progress Appendix D: Workshop Participants Appendix E: Biographical Sketches of Committee Members Appendix F: Acronyms and Abbreviations
SUMMARY 1
1 INTRODUCTION 7
Climate Change Science Program,
8
Organization of the Report,
12
PART I: METHOD AND RESULTS
2 PROCESS FOR EVALUATING PROGRESS: TASK 1A
17
What Can Be Evaluated,
17
Application of the NRC (2005) Evaluation Framework,
20
Evaluating Progress Based on Program Results,
23
Conclusions,
32
3 PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF CCSP PROGRESS
35
Evaluation Approach,
35
Results of the Stage 1 Evaluation,
37
Overarching Conclusions,
41
PART I REFERENCES
47
PART II: DETAILED SUPPORTING ANALYSIS
4 PROGRESS TOWARD THE RESEARCH ELEMENTS
51
Atmospheric Composition,
52
Climate Variability and Change,
57
Water Cycle,
65
Land Use and Land Cover Change,
70
Carbon Cycle,
76
Ecosystems,
84
Human Contributions and Responses to Environmental Change,
87
Preliminary Assessment of the Overarching Goals: An Example,
93
5 PROGRESS TOWARD THE CROSS-CUTTING ISSUES
99
Observations, Monitoring, and Data Management,
99
Modeling,
107
Decision Support Resources,
111
Communications,
115
International Cooperation,
118
PART II REFERENCES 121
APPENDIXES
A Status of CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Products
139
B Supplemental Information on Human Contributions and Responses
143
C Matrix to Evaluate CCSP Progress
151
D Workshop Participants
159
E Biographical Sketches of Committee Members
161
F Acronyms and Abbreviations
169
Committee on Strategic Advice on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, National Research Council