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E-grāmata: Everyday Probability and Statistics: Health, Elections, Gambling and War 2nd Revised edition [World Scientific e-book]

(University Of York, Uk)
  • Formāts: 288 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 27-Aug-2012
  • Izdevniecība: Imperial College Press
  • ISBN-13: 9781848167636
Citas grāmatas par šo tēmu:
  • World Scientific e-book
  • Cena: 101,47 €*
  • * this price gives unlimited concurrent access for unlimited time
Everyday Probability and Statistics: Health, Elections, Gambling and War 2nd Revised editionPalielināt
  • Formāts: 288 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 27-Aug-2012
  • Izdevniecība: Imperial College Press
  • ISBN-13: 9781848167636
Citas grāmatas par šo tēmu:
World Scientific e-booksMore info about World Scientific e-books
Rokasgrāmatas mājas lapa: http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/P796#t=toc
"Probability and statistics impinge on the life of the average person in a variety of ways - as is suggested by the title of this book. Very often, information is provided that is factually accurate but intended to present a biased view. This book presents the important results of probability and statistics without making heavy mathematical demands on the reader. It should enable an intelligent reader to properly assess statistical information and to understand that the same information can be presented in different ways."--BOOK JACKET.

Probability and statistics impinge on the life of the average person in a variety of ways — as is suggested by the title of this book. Very often, information is provided that is factually accurate but intended to present a biased view. This book presents the important results of probability and statistics without making heavy mathematical demands on the reader. It should enable an intelligent reader to properly assess statistical information and to understand that the same information can be presented in different ways.The author presents a new chapter exploring science and society including the way that scientists communicate with the public on current topics such as global warming. The book also investigates pensions and pension policy, and how they are influenced by changing actuarial tables.
Introduction 1(6)
Chapter 1 The Nature of Probability
7(8)
1.1 Probability and Everyday Speech
7(1)
1.2 Spinning a Coin
8(2)
1.3 Throwing or Spinning Other Objects
10(5)
Problems 1
12(3)
Chapter 2 Combining Probabilities
15(12)
2.1 Either-or Probability
15(2)
2.2 Both-and Probability
17(1)
2.3 Genetically Inherited Disease --- Just Gene Dependent
18(3)
2.4 Genetically Inherited Disease --- Gender Dependent
21(2)
2.5 A Dice Game --- American Craps
23(4)
Problems 2
25(2)
Chapter 3 A Day at the Races
27(10)
3.1 Kinds of Probability
27(2)
3.2 Betting on a Horse
29(4)
3.3 The Best Conditions for a Punter
33(4)
Problem 3
35(2)
Chapter 4 Making Choices and Selections
37(12)
4.1 Children Leaving a Room
37(2)
4.2 Picking a Team
39(3)
4.3 Choosing an Email Username
42(1)
4.4 The UK National Lottery
43(6)
Problems 4
47(2)
Chapter 5 Non-Intuitive Examples of Probability
49(10)
5.1 The Birthday Problem
49(4)
5.2 Crown and Anchor
53(3)
5.3 To Switch or Not to Switch, That is the Question
56(3)
Problems 5
58(1)
Chapter 6 Probability and Health
59(12)
6.1 Finding the Best Treatment
59(3)
6.2 Testing Drugs
62(9)
Problems 6
68(3)
Chapter 7 Combining Probabilities: The Craps Game Revealed
71(10)
7.1 A Simple Probability Machine
71(3)
7.2 Pontoon: A Card Game
74(2)
7.3 The Thrower's Chance of Winning at American Craps
76(5)
Problems 7
79(2)
Chapter 8 The UK National Lottery, Loaded Dice and Crooked Wheels
81(20)
8.1 The Need to Test for Fairness
81(2)
8.2 Testing Random Numbers
83(4)
8.3 The UK National Lottery
87(2)
8.4 American Craps with Loaded Dice
89(5)
8.5 Testing for a Loaded Die
94(2)
8.6 The Roulette Wheel
96(5)
Problems 8
98(3)
Chapter 9 Block Diagrams
101(10)
9.1 Variation in Almost Everything
101(1)
9.2 A Shoe Manufacturer
102(3)
9.3 Histogram Shapes
105(2)
9.4 Lofty and Shorty
107(4)
Problem 9
110(1)
Chapter 10 The Normal (or Gaussian) Distribution
111(18)
10.1 Probability Distributions
111(2)
10.2 The Normal Distribution
113(2)
10.3 The Variance and Standard Deviation
115(2)
10.4 Properties of Normal Distributions
117(2)
10.5 A Little Necessary Mathematics
119(3)
10.5.1 Some special numbers
119(1)
10.5.2 Powers of numbers
120(2)
10.6 The Form of the Normal Distribution
122(1)
10.7 Random and Systematic Errors
123(2)
10.8 Some Examples of the Normal Distribution
125(4)
10.8.1 Electric light bulbs
125(1)
10.8.2 People on trolleys and under-used resources
126(2)
Problems 10
128(1)
Chapter 11 Statistics: The Collection and Analysis of Numerical Data
129(6)
11.1 Too Much Information
129(1)
11.2 Another Way of Finding the Variance
130(1)
11.3 From Regional to National Statistics
131(4)
Problems 11
133(2)
Chapter 12 The Poisson Distribution and Death by Horse Kicks
135(14)
12.1 Rare Events
135(2)
12.2 Typing a Manuscript
137(2)
12.3 The Poisson Distribution as a Formula
139(2)
12.4 Death by Horse Kicks
141(2)
12.5 Some Other Examples of the Poisson Distribution
143(6)
12.5.1 Flying Bomb Attacks on London
143(2)
12.5.2 Clustering of a disease
145(1)
12.5.3 Some further examples
146(1)
Problems 12
147(2)
Chapter 13 Predicting Voting Patterns
149(10)
13.1 Election Polls
149(1)
13.2 Polling Statistics
150(3)
13.3 Combining Polling Samples
153(1)
13.4 Polling with More than Two Parties
154(2)
13.5 Factors Affecting Polls and Voting
156(3)
Problems 13
158(1)
Chapter 14 Taking Samples: How Many Fish in the Pond?
159(12)
14.1 Why Do We Sample?
159(1)
14.2 Finding Out From Samples
160(2)
14.3 An Illustrative Example
162(2)
14.4 General Comments on Sampling
164(1)
14.5 Quality Control
164(3)
14.6 How Many Fish in the Pond?
167(4)
Problems 14
168(3)
Chapter 15 Differences: Rats and IQs
171(6)
15.1 The Significance of Differences
171(2)
15.2 Significantly Different---So What!
173(4)
Problem 15
176(1)
Chapter 16 Crime is Increasing and Decreasing
177(12)
16.1 Crime and the Reporting of Crime
177(1)
16.2 The Trend for Overall Crime in England and Wales
178(2)
16.3 Vehicle Crime, Burglary and Violent Crime
180(3)
16.4 Homicide
183(2)
16.5 Crime and Politicians
185(4)
Problem 16
186(3)
Chapter 17 My Uncle Joe Smoked 60 a Day
189(8)
17.1 Genetics and Disease
189(2)
17.2 The Incidence of Smoking in the UK
191(2)
17.3 The Smoking Lottery
193(4)
Problem 17
195(2)
Chapter 18 Chance, Luck and Making Decisions
197(14)
18.1 The Winds of Chance
197(3)
18.2 Choices
200(1)
18.3 I Want a Lucky General
201(2)
18.4 To Fight or Not to Fight, That is the Question
203(3)
18.5 The Mathematics of War
206(5)
Problem 18
210(1)
Chapter 19 Science and Society
211(34)
19.1 What is Science?
212(2)
19.2 Meteorology and Butterflies
214(9)
19.2.1 A demonstration of chaos
215(3)
19.2.2 Meteorological forecasting
218(5)
19.3 Global Warming
223(16)
19.3.1 The greenhouse effect
224(4)
19.3.2 Greenhouse gases
228(1)
19.3.3 The evidence for global warming
229(3)
19.3.4 The controversy
232(1)
19.3.5 Can we know for certain?
233(4)
19.3.6 Better safe than sorry
237(2)
19.4 Nuclear Power Generation
239(3)
19.5 Decision-Making Without Hard Data
242(3)
Problem 19
244(1)
Chapter 20 The Pensions Problem
245(14)
20.1 A History of Life Expectancy
245(4)
20.2 Supporting the Aged, and Others
249(3)
20.3 The Age Structure of Populations
252(2)
20.4 The Arithmetic of Pensions
254(5)
Problem 20
258(1)
Solutions to Problems 259(16)
Index 275
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