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Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States [Mīkstie vāki]

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  • Formāts: Paperback / softback, 152 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 30-Nov-2019
  • Izdevniecība: RAND
  • ISBN-10: 1977402151
  • ISBN-13: 9781977402158
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  • Cena: 27,40 €
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Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic StatesPalielināt
  • Formāts: Paperback / softback, 152 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 30-Nov-2019
  • Izdevniecība: RAND
  • ISBN-10: 1977402151
  • ISBN-13: 9781977402158
Citas grāmatas par šo tēmu:
Permanent link: https://www.kriso.lv/db/9781977402158.html
This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s current posture is weak.
Preface iii
Figures and Tables
vii
Summary ix
Acknowledgments xv
Abbreviations xvii
Chapter One Introduction
1(2)
Chapter Two Selective Review of Deterrence Theory
3(22)
Definitions
3(4)
The Goal of Deterrence: Affecting Human Behavior
7(2)
Selected Cold War History
9(10)
Lessons Learned, Valid and Invalid
19(6)
Chapter Three Developments Since the Cold War
25(24)
Developments in Russian Strategy and Nuclear Weapons Within It
26(9)
NATO Developments Since the Cold War
35(6)
Realities of Geography and Conventional Force Balances
41(5)
Weakness of NATO's Infrastructure for War in the Baltic States
46(3)
Chapter Four Limited Nuclear Options for NATO Consideration
49(10)
Features of Credible Limited Nuclear Options
49(2)
Current and Planned NATO Discriminate Nuclear Capabilities
51(6)
Scenario Development Considerations
57(2)
Chapter Five Selected Methods for Evaluating Deterrence Options
59(8)
Wargaming and Game-Structured Modeling
59(1)
Qualitative and Semiquantitative Cognitive Modeling
60(2)
Using Human Wargames to Test and Supplement Cognitive Models
62(3)
Recommendation on Methods
65(2)
Chapter Six Wargaming the Use of Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons During an Invasion of the Baltic States
67(16)
The Initiating Scenario
68(4)
How the Wargame Exercise Unfolded
72(9)
Synopsis of Insights from the Wargame Exercise and Related Analysis
81(2)
Chapter Seven Conclusions
83(8)
Two Views of Deterrence
83(3)
Overall Conclusions
86(3)
Possible Topics for Future Analysis
89(2)
Appendixes
A A Deterrence Model for Exploring Issues Speculatively
91(10)
B Format for Wargaming a Conflict in the Baltic States
101(4)
C Conventional Force Cost Estimates
105(14)
D Tactical Nuclear Force Cost Estimates . Ill
References 119