List of figures |
|
xxiii | |
List of tables |
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xxvii | |
List of boxes |
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xxix | |
Preface |
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xxxi | |
Acknowledgments |
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xxxv | |
Part I Characteristics of financial data and univariate models |
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1 | (178) |
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1 Introduction to financial economics and econometrics |
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3 | (10) |
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1 What is financial economics? |
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3 | (2) |
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2 What is financial econometrics? |
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5 | (2) |
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3 What are quantitative finance and financial engineering? |
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7 | (1) |
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4 Financial economics and econometrics and other disciplines |
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7 | (1) |
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8 | (5) |
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2 How to write a research paper |
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13 | (10) |
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13 | (1) |
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14 | (1) |
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15 | (1) |
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15 | (1) |
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16 | (1) |
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5 Empirical analysis and discussion |
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17 | (1) |
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6 Summary and conclusions |
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17 | (1) |
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7 Finance journals and data sources |
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18 | (3) |
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8 Putting it all together |
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21 | (2) |
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3 The characteristics of financial series |
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23 | (44) |
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23 | (1) |
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1 Macro vs. financial data |
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23 | (1) |
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2 Distributional properties of financial series |
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24 | (21) |
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2.1 Raw vs. transformed series |
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25 | (4) |
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2.2 Descriptive statistics |
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29 | (9) |
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2.3 Graphical illustrations |
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38 | (5) |
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2.4 Some empirical evidence |
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43 | (2) |
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3 Stylized facts of financial series |
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45 | (14) |
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45 | (1) |
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46 | (3) |
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49 | (1) |
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50 | (1) |
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51 | (4) |
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55 | (1) |
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3.7 Other characteristics |
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56 | (13) |
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56 | (1) |
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57 | (1) |
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58 | (1) |
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59 | (2) |
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61 | (1) |
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62 | (5) |
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4 Univariate properties of financial time series |
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67 | (58) |
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67 | (2) |
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69 | (6) |
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71 | (4) |
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3 Stationarity and processes |
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75 | (41) |
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3.1 Making a series stationary |
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77 | (3) |
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78 | (1) |
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78 | (2) |
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80 | (4) |
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3.2.1 Autocorrelation function |
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82 | (1) |
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3.2.2 Partial autocorrelation function |
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83 | (1) |
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84 | (3) |
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87 | (3) |
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3.4.1 Causality in ARMA(p,q) |
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89 | (1) |
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3.5 Building AR, MA and AR(I)MA models |
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90 | (1) |
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3.6 The Box-Jenkins approach |
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91 | (35) |
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3.6.1 Model identification |
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91 | (1) |
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91 | (10) |
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3.6.2 Econometric approach |
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101 | (5) |
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106 | (1) |
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107 | (1) |
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107 | (2) |
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3.6.6 Some comments on ARMA specifications |
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109 | (1) |
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110 | (5) |
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3.6.7 Overview of modeling and forecasting time series |
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115 | (1) |
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4 Some empirical evidence |
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116 | (1) |
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117 | (1) |
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118 | (3) |
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121 | (4) |
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5 Short- and long-run relationships among time series |
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125 | (54) |
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125 | (1) |
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2 Short-term relationships |
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126 | (6) |
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2.1 Covariance and correlation |
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126 | (2) |
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128 | (4) |
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130 | (1) |
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131 | (1) |
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2.2.3 Early evidence on causality among stock prices and macro variables |
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132 | (1) |
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132 | (12) |
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132 | (2) |
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3.2 Dickey-Fuller unit root tests |
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134 | (1) |
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3.3 Phillips-Perron unit root test |
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135 | (2) |
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3.4 Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin unit root test |
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137 | (1) |
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3.5 Ng and Perron unit root test |
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138 | (1) |
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3.6 On the inclusions of a constant and/or a trend |
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138 | (1) |
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139 | (2) |
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3.8 Unit root testing under structural breaks |
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141 | (2) |
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141 | (1) |
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142 | (1) |
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143 | (1) |
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144 | (22) |
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144 | (1) |
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145 | (21) |
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4.2.1 The Engle and Granger cointegration approach |
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146 | (3) |
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4.2.2 Some examples of cointegration and economic equilibrium |
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149 | (1) |
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Stock prices and dividends |
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149 | (1) |
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150 | (1) |
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Consumption, income and wealth |
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151 | (1) |
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152 | (1) |
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Relationships among interest rates |
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153 | (1) |
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4.2.3 The residuals-based cointegration approach |
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153 | (1) |
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4.2.3 The Phillips-Ouliaris cointegration test |
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154 | (1) |
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4.2.4 The Durbin-Watson cointegrating statistic test |
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154 | (1) |
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4.2.5 Autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) model |
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155 | (1) |
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155 | (1) |
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4.2.6 The Johansen approach |
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156 | (3) |
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4.2.7 Rolling-sample cointegration |
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159 | (1) |
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160 | (1) |
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161 | (3) |
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4.2.10 Advances in cointegration |
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164 | (2) |
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5 Cross (auto)correlations |
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166 | (4) |
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166 | (1) |
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166 | (1) |
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5.3 Implementation and interpretation |
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167 | (2) |
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168 | (1) |
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5.4 Some empirical evidence |
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169 | (1) |
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170 | (2) |
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172 | (1) |
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173 | (6) |
Part II Asset returns |
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179 | (186) |
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6 The efficient market hypothesis and tests |
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181 | (60) |
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181 | (1) |
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1 The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) |
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182 | (19) |
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182 | (3) |
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1.2 Forms of market efficiency |
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185 | (6) |
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1.3 Tests of market efficiency |
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191 | (2) |
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1.3.1 Nonparametric tests |
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193 | (3) |
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193 | (1) |
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194 | (2) |
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196 | (5) |
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196 | (3) |
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199 | (2) |
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2 Other tests of market efficiency |
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201 | (11) |
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201 | (2) |
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2.2 Event study methodology |
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203 | (9) |
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203 | (1) |
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Cumulative abnormal returns |
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203 | (1) |
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Buy-and-hold abnormal returns |
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205 | (1) |
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206 | (1) |
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207 | (1) |
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On computing expected and normal returns |
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207 | (1) |
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On setting the statistical hypotheses |
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208 | (1) |
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209 | (1) |
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210 | (2) |
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3 Other models for testing the EMH |
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212 | (6) |
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212 | (2) |
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214 | (2) |
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216 | (2) |
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4 Selected empirical evidence |
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218 | (7) |
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4.1 Short-term patterns in stock returns |
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218 | (2) |
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4.2 Long-term patterns in stock returns |
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220 | (4) |
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224 | (1) |
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5 Where do we stand now on EMH? |
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225 | (3) |
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228 | (2) |
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230 | (2) |
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232 | (9) |
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7 The capital asset pricing model and its variants |
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241 | (60) |
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241 | (1) |
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242 | (15) |
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1.1 Risk aversion, portfolio risk and diversification |
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242 | (3) |
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1.2 Mean-variance model in brief |
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245 | (2) |
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247 | (1) |
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248 | (4) |
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1.5 The security market line |
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252 | (2) |
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254 | (1) |
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1.7 Some issues with CAPM |
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255 | (2) |
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2 Econometric methodologies |
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257 | (22) |
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2.1 The simple linear regression model |
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257 | (3) |
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260 | (1) |
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2.2.1 Time-series specifications |
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260 | (7) |
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260 | (7) |
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2.2.2 Cross-section regression specifications |
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267 | (7) |
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The Black, Jensen and Scholes approach |
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268 | (1) |
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The Fama-MacBeth methodology |
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|
269 | (3) |
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M-CAPM vs. B-CAPM vs. SL-CAP |
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272 | (1) |
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The Fama-French methodologies |
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273 | (1) |
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2.2.3 The generalized method of moments approach |
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274 | (2) |
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2.3 Empirical evidence on CAPM |
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276 | (3) |
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278 | (1) |
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3 Some extensions/variants of CAPM |
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279 | (10) |
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3.1 Merton's intertemporal CAPM |
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279 | (2) |
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281 | (3) |
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284 | (1) |
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285 | (2) |
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3.5 The international CAPM |
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287 | (1) |
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288 | (1) |
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4 The equity premium puzzle |
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289 | (2) |
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289 | (1) |
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4.2 Explaining the puzzle |
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290 | (1) |
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291 | (3) |
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294 | (1) |
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295 | (6) |
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8 Multifactor models and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory |
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301 | (64) |
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301 | (1) |
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1 Categories of factor models |
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302 | (3) |
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1.1 Macroeconomic factor models |
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303 | (1) |
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1.2 Fundamental factor models |
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304 | (1) |
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1.3 Statistical factor models |
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304 | (1) |
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2 Factor-construction methodologies |
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305 | (7) |
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2.1 Autoregressive process |
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306 | (1) |
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2.2 Moving average process |
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306 | (1) |
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307 | (1) |
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2.4 Time-series regression methodology |
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308 | (1) |
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2.5 Cross-section regression methodology |
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309 | (1) |
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2.6 Factor and principal components analyses |
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|
310 | (2) |
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310 | (1) |
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2.5.2 Principal component analysis |
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311 | (1) |
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3 Determining the number of factors |
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312 | (3) |
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3.1 Some empirical evidence |
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314 | (1) |
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4 The Arbitrage Pricing Theory |
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315 | (16) |
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315 | (1) |
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4.2 Differences between APT and CAPM |
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316 | (1) |
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317 | (1) |
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317 | (2) |
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4.5 What are the common or systematic factors? |
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319 | (1) |
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4.6 Empirical tests and applications of APT |
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319 | (3) |
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4.7 Empirical analyses of APT |
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322 | (3) |
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323 | (2) |
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325 | (1) |
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4.9 Some notable APT applications |
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326 | (5) |
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326 | (2) |
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328 | (1) |
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Some comments on the CRR and CCH papers |
|
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328 | (1) |
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Flannery and Protopapadakis |
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329 | (2) |
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5 Important multifactor models |
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331 | (5) |
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5.1 The Fama and French three-factor model |
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331 | (2) |
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5.2 The expanded FF three-factor model |
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333 | (1) |
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5.3 The FF five-factor model |
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334 | (1) |
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5.4 The Carhart four-factor model |
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335 | (1) |
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6 Other multifactor models |
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336 | (5) |
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6.1 The Pastor-Stambaugh model |
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336 | (1) |
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6.2 The Burmeister, Roll and Ross model |
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337 | (1) |
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6.3 The Fung-Hsieh factor models |
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338 | (2) |
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6.4 The Hou, Xue and Zhang q-factor model |
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340 | (1) |
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7 Some econometric issues and methodologies |
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341 | (8) |
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341 | (4) |
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342 | (1) |
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7.1.2 The Goldfeld-Quandt test |
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343 | (1) |
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7.1.3 The generalized least squares approach |
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344 | (1) |
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345 | (2) |
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7.2.1 The Cochrane-Orcutt approach |
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346 | (1) |
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347 | (2) |
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349 | (1) |
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8 Some final comments on multifactor models |
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349 | (3) |
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352 | (3) |
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355 | (1) |
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356 | (9) |
Part III Interest rates, yields and spreads |
|
365 | (102) |
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9 The risks and the term structure of interest rates |
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367 | (50) |
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|
367 | (1) |
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1 Interest-rate determination |
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368 | (6) |
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1.1 The loanable funds theory |
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369 | (3) |
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1.2 The liquidity preference theory |
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|
372 | (2) |
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2 US Treasury bills and inflation |
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374 | (2) |
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3 Money and capital market rates |
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376 | (4) |
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|
377 | (1) |
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378 | (2) |
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4 The risk structure of interest rates |
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380 | (1) |
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5 The term structure of interest rates |
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381 | (8) |
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382 | (3) |
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5.1.1 Spot and forward rates |
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383 | (1) |
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5.1.2 Slopes of the yield curve |
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384 | (1) |
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5.2 Swap rate yield curve |
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385 | (1) |
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5.3 Theories of the term structure of interest rates |
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385 | (3) |
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5.3.1 The expectations theory |
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386 | (1) |
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5.3.2 The liquidity preference theory |
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387 | (1) |
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5.3.3 The preferred habitat theory |
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387 | (1) |
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5.3.4 The market segmentation theory |
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388 | (1) |
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5.4 Practical importance of the yield curve |
|
|
388 | (1) |
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6 Some empirical evidence on the term structure |
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389 | (2) |
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391 | (12) |
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391 | (2) |
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7.2 Single-factor, short interest rate models |
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393 | (4) |
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7.2.1 The Vasicek (1977) models |
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393 | (1) |
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7.2.2 The Rendleman-Bartter (1980) model |
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394 | (1) |
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7.2.3 The Hull and White (1987, 1990) model |
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394 | (1) |
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7.2.4 The Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (1985) model |
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395 | (1) |
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7.2.5 The Ho and Lee (1986) model |
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395 | (1) |
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7.2.6 The Dothan (1978) model |
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395 | (1) |
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7.2.7 The Black-Derman-Toy (1990) model |
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396 | (1) |
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7.2.8 The Black and Karasinski (1991) model |
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396 | (1) |
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7.2.9 The Heath et al. (1992) model |
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396 | (1) |
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7.2.10 The Kalotay-Williams-Fabozzi (1993) model |
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397 | (1) |
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7.2.11 The Squared Gaussian Model |
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397 | (1) |
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7.3 Evaluation of one-factor, short rate models |
|
|
397 | (2) |
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7.4 Multifactor interest rate models |
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399 | (3) |
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7.4.1 The Brennan and Schwartz (1979) model |
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400 | (1) |
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7.4.2 The Richard (1978) model |
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400 | (1) |
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7.4.3 The Longstaff and Schwartz (1992) model |
|
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401 | (1) |
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7.4.4 The Chen (1996a,b) model |
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401 | (1) |
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7.5 The LIBOR market-rate model |
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|
402 | (1) |
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8 Some empirical evidence |
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|
403 | (3) |
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|
406 | (3) |
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409 | (1) |
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|
409 | (8) |
|
10 Yields, spreads and exchange rates |
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|
417 | (50) |
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|
417 | (1) |
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1 Bond yields and spreads |
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418 | (6) |
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1.1 Bond prices and yields |
|
|
418 | (1) |
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|
419 | (2) |
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1.3 Some spreads and their meaning |
|
|
421 | (3) |
|
2 The economic significance of yield spreads |
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|
424 | (8) |
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2.1 Yield spreads and economic magnitudes |
|
|
424 | (7) |
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2.2 Spreads and risk components |
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|
431 | (1) |
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|
432 | (6) |
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|
432 | (1) |
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|
433 | (2) |
|
3.2.1 Interpretation and application |
|
|
434 | (1) |
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|
435 | (2) |
|
3.4 Cointegration among spreads |
|
|
437 | (1) |
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|
438 | (9) |
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|
438 | (6) |
|
4.1.1 The law of one price |
|
|
438 | (1) |
|
4.1.2 The theory of purchasing power parity |
|
|
438 | (2) |
|
4.1.3 Demand and supply analysis |
|
|
440 | (1) |
|
4.1.4 The interest rate parity theorem |
|
|
441 | (1) |
|
4.1.5 The covered interest rate parity |
|
|
442 | (1) |
|
4.1.6 The uncovered interest rate parity |
|
|
442 | (1) |
|
4.1.7 The forward rate unbiasedness condition |
|
|
443 | (1) |
|
4.1.8 The real interest rate parity |
|
|
444 | (1) |
|
4.2 Some empirical evidence |
|
|
444 | (1) |
|
4.3 The forward premium puzzle |
|
|
445 | (2) |
|
5 Some econometric methodologies |
|
|
447 | (5) |
|
5.1 Simultaneous equations |
|
|
447 | (1) |
|
5.2 The indirect least squares method |
|
|
448 | (2) |
|
5.2.1 The identification issue |
|
|
449 | (1) |
|
5.3 The 2-stage least squares approach |
|
|
450 | (1) |
|
5.4 The instrumental variables approach |
|
|
450 | (1) |
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|
451 | (1) |
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|
452 | (5) |
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|
457 | (3) |
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|
460 | (1) |
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|
461 | (6) |
Part IV Volatility and correlation |
|
467 | (98) |
|
11 Volatility modeling and forecasting |
|
|
469 | (50) |
|
|
469 | (4) |
|
|
473 | (4) |
|
2.1 Empirical regularities of volatility |
|
|
473 | (2) |
|
2.2 Sources of volatility and stock returns |
|
|
475 | (1) |
|
2.3 Implied vs. realized volatility |
|
|
476 | (1) |
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|
477 | (14) |
|
|
477 | (2) |
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|
479 | (4) |
|
An illustration of ARCH and GARCH models |
|
|
481 | (2) |
|
|
483 | (2) |
|
|
485 | (1) |
|
3.5 The Glosten et al. (1993) model |
|
|
485 | (1) |
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|
486 | (1) |
|
3.7 Asymmetric Power ARCH |
|
|
486 | (1) |
|
3.8 Other GARCH-type models |
|
|
487 | (1) |
|
Some illustrations using the aforementioned models |
|
|
488 | (1) |
|
3.9 Tests for asymmetries |
|
|
488 | (1) |
|
|
489 | (2) |
|
|
491 | (1) |
|
|
491 | (6) |
|
4.1 Exponential smoothing |
|
|
492 | (1) |
|
4.2 Exponentially weighted moving average |
|
|
492 | (1) |
|
|
493 | (2) |
|
4.4 Some empirical evidence |
|
|
495 | (2) |
|
5 Other variants of GARCH models |
|
|
497 | (2) |
|
|
499 | (3) |
|
|
502 | (2) |
|
8 Volatility as an asset class |
|
|
504 | (2) |
|
|
506 | (4) |
|
|
510 | (1) |
|
|
511 | (8) |
|
|
519 | (46) |
|
|
519 | (2) |
|
2 Covariance and correlation |
|
|
521 | (11) |
|
2.1 Covariances and correlations |
|
|
521 | (7) |
|
|
526 | (1) |
|
|
527 | (1) |
|
|
527 | (1) |
|
2.2 Some general discussion on correlation and covariance |
|
|
528 | (1) |
|
2.3 Simple covariance models |
|
|
529 | (1) |
|
2.3.1 Implied covariance and correlation model |
|
|
529 | (1) |
|
2.3.2 Exponentially weighted moving average covariance model |
|
|
529 | (1) |
|
2.3.3 GARCH-covariance model |
|
|
530 | (1) |
|
2.4 Contagion and interdependence (spillovers) |
|
|
530 | (2) |
|
2.4.1 Theories of contagion and spillovers |
|
|
530 | (1) |
|
2.4.2 A simple model to measure contagion and spillovers |
|
|
531 | (1) |
|
3 Multivariate GARCH models |
|
|
532 | (15) |
|
|
533 | (1) |
|
|
534 | (1) |
|
|
535 | (1) |
|
3.4 The constant conditional correlation GARCH model |
|
|
536 | (1) |
|
3.5 The dynamic conditional-correlation GARCH model |
|
|
536 | (1) |
|
3.6 Dynamic equicorrelation model |
|
|
537 | (1) |
|
|
538 | (1) |
|
3.8 The copula-MGARCH model |
|
|
538 | (9) |
|
Applications of some MGARCH models |
|
|
539 | (8) |
|
4 Regime-switching models |
|
|
547 | (8) |
|
4.1 Markov-switching models |
|
|
548 | (2) |
|
4.2 Markov-switching (G)ARCH models |
|
|
550 | (3) |
|
4.3 Some financial applications |
|
|
553 | (2) |
|
|
555 | (2) |
|
|
557 | (2) |
|
|
559 | (6) |
Part V Topics in financial management |
|
565 | (154) |
|
13 Capital structure and dividend decisions |
|
|
567 | (62) |
|
|
567 | (1) |
|
2 Theories of capital structure |
|
|
568 | (8) |
|
|
569 | (2) |
|
2.1.1 Costs of bankruptcy |
|
|
570 | (1) |
|
2.2 The pecking order theory |
|
|
571 | (1) |
|
2.3 The free-cash flow theory |
|
|
572 | (1) |
|
2.4 Other theories of capital structure |
|
|
573 | (3) |
|
3 Methodologies used in capital structure |
|
|
576 | (10) |
|
3.1 Linear, multiple discriminant analysis |
|
|
577 | (3) |
|
3.1.1 Altman's Z-score models |
|
|
577 | (3) |
|
3.2 Categorical-variable models |
|
|
580 | (2) |
|
3.2.1 Censored and truncated variables |
|
|
581 | (1) |
|
|
582 | (2) |
|
3.3.1 The fixed-effects model |
|
|
583 | (1) |
|
3.3.2 The random-effects model |
|
|
583 | (1) |
|
|
584 | (2) |
|
4 Empirical evidence on capital structure and additional insights |
|
|
586 | (4) |
|
4.1 Empirical evidence on capital structure theories |
|
|
586 | (2) |
|
4.2 Additional research on capital structure |
|
|
588 | (2) |
|
5 Dividend policies and theories |
|
|
590 | (11) |
|
5.1 The Modigliani and Miller dividend irrelevance proposition |
|
|
592 | (2) |
|
5.2 The information content of dividends |
|
|
594 | (2) |
|
5.2.1 The signaling theory |
|
|
595 | (1) |
|
5.3 The clientele effect theory |
|
|
596 | (1) |
|
5.4 The tax effect theory |
|
|
597 | (1) |
|
5.5 The transactions cost-induced effect |
|
|
598 | (1) |
|
5.6 The bird-in-the-hand theory |
|
|
598 | (1) |
|
5.7 The agency cost or the free-cash flow hypothesis |
|
|
599 | (1) |
|
5.8 The residual dividend theory |
|
|
600 | (1) |
|
5.9 The firm life-cycle theory of dividend payout |
|
|
600 | (1) |
|
5.10 The dividend-smoothing theory |
|
|
601 | (1) |
|
6 Empirical evidence on dividend theories |
|
|
601 | (12) |
|
6.1 Empirical tests of dividend theories |
|
|
602 | (6) |
|
6.2 Other tests of dividend policies literature |
|
|
608 | (2) |
|
6.3 A brief recap of dividend theories and empirical evidence |
|
|
610 | (3) |
|
|
613 | (7) |
|
|
620 | (1) |
|
|
621 | (8) |
|
14 Mergers, acquisitions and corporate restructurings |
|
|
629 | (46) |
|
|
629 | (2) |
|
2 Mergers, acquisitions and restructurings |
|
|
631 | (11) |
|
|
631 | (5) |
|
2.1.1 Economies of scale, scope and integration |
|
|
631 | (1) |
|
2.1.2 Achieving efficiencies |
|
|
632 | (1) |
|
|
633 | (1) |
|
|
633 | (3) |
|
|
636 | (2) |
|
2.2.1 Gains from an acquisition |
|
|
638 | (1) |
|
2.3 Corporate restructuring |
|
|
638 | (4) |
|
2.3.1 Reasons for corporate restructuring |
|
|
639 | (1) |
|
|
639 | (1) |
|
|
639 | (1) |
|
|
640 | (1) |
|
|
641 | (1) |
|
|
641 | (1) |
|
|
641 | (1) |
|
2.3.2 The distressed exchange restructuring theory |
|
|
641 | (1) |
|
3 Econometric methodologies in M&A investigations |
|
|
642 | (4) |
|
|
642 | (2) |
|
|
644 | (2) |
|
4 Empirical evidence on mergers and acquisitions |
|
|
646 | (8) |
|
4.1 Announcement event studies |
|
|
646 | (2) |
|
4.2 Pre- and post-merger firm performance |
|
|
648 | (1) |
|
4.3 Impact of a merger or acquisition on financial performance |
|
|
649 | (2) |
|
4.4 Market valuation and merger activity |
|
|
651 | (1) |
|
4.5 Selected international evidence on mergers and acquisitions |
|
|
652 | (2) |
|
5 Studies using conditional logit, tobit and survival analysis |
|
|
654 | (5) |
|
5.1 Studies having used the conditional logit |
|
|
654 | (2) |
|
5.2 Studies having used the Tobit model |
|
|
656 | (1) |
|
5.3 Studies having used survival analysis |
|
|
657 | (2) |
|
6 Empirical evidence on corporate restructuring |
|
|
659 | (2) |
|
|
661 | (4) |
|
|
665 | (1) |
|
|
666 | (9) |
|
15 Contemporary topics in financial economics |
|
|
675 | (44) |
|
|
675 | (1) |
|
|
676 | (10) |
|
2.1 Price discovery and formation |
|
|
677 | (2) |
|
2.2 Market structure and design |
|
|
679 | (2) |
|
|
681 | (1) |
|
|
681 | (1) |
|
2.5 High-frequency trading |
|
|
682 | (4) |
|
2.5.1 Traditional market-making vs. HFT market-making |
|
|
683 | (1) |
|
|
683 | (3) |
|
3 Empirical evidence on market microstructure and high-frequency trading |
|
|
686 | (5) |
|
3.1 Selected research on market microstructure |
|
|
686 | (3) |
|
3.2 Selected empirical evidence on high-frequency trading |
|
|
689 | (2) |
|
4 Econometric methodologies |
|
|
691 | (6) |
|
4.1 The state-space model |
|
|
691 | (1) |
|
4.2 The autoregressive conditional duration model |
|
|
692 | (1) |
|
4.3 The differences-in-differences specification |
|
|
693 | (2) |
|
|
694 | (1) |
|
|
695 | (2) |
|
|
697 | (4) |
|
5.1 Some statistical characteristics of cryptocurrencies |
|
|
698 | (2) |
|
5.2 Cryptos as an asset class and linkages with other financial assets |
|
|
700 | (1) |
|
5.3 Other attributes of cryptocurrencies |
|
|
701 | (1) |
|
|
701 | (6) |
|
|
702 | (2) |
|
|
704 | (3) |
|
6.3 The future of fintech |
|
|
707 | (1) |
|
|
707 | (4) |
|
|
711 | (1) |
|
|
711 | (8) |
Index |
|
719 | |