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E-grāmata: Financial Systems and Economic Crises: The Main Determinants of Financial Instability

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  • Formāts: EPUB+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 05-Jul-2022
  • Izdevniecība: Peter Lang AG
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9783631879481
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Financial Systems and Economic Crises: The Main Determinants of Financial InstabilityPalielināt
  • Formāts: EPUB+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 05-Jul-2022
  • Izdevniecība: Peter Lang AG
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9783631879481
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This book examines the main causes of financial instability and highlights that,
with the exception of wars and pandemics, the financial system is the source of the
crisis, not just a means of spreading it, as most mainstream experts believe. Based on
the following findings, the innovative sections of this book provide academics and
policymakers with important and practical knowledge: because negative shifts in the
financial system precede recessions, financial indicators can predict the onset of a
crisis much earlier than real variables; the proposed recession forecasting model can
predict the emergence of the crisis a month in advance. When the economy’s sensitivity
to the financial system is reduced, there will be only modest negative economic
growth and no true recessions.

This book analyses the main determinants of financial instability and emphasizes that, with the exception of wars and pandemics, the financial system is the source of the crisis, not just the means of its propagation. It proposes a recession forecasting model that has the advantage of announcing the start of the crisis a month in advance.

List of Abbreviations
11(2)
Introduction 13(2)
1 The Radiography of the Financial System, with a Focus on the United States
15(46)
1.1 The different aspects of the financial system in general
15(4)
1.2 Financial - monetary economy fundamentals
19(16)
1.2.1 Money supply: Money creation by the central and commercial banks
20(1)
1.2.2 Money creation and "monetary destruction"
20(1)
1.2.3 Questioning the money multiplier process
21(9)
1.2.4 Non-neutrality and super non-neutrality of money
30(5)
1.3 Developments in the current U.S. financial system
35(23)
1.3.1 Loan and bank credit decoupling from money and nonbanking superfinancialization
35(5)
1.3.1.1 Credit aggregates: Suitable for nominal GDP targeting?
40(5)
1.3.1.2 Financial interconnections
45(2)
1.3.1.3 Securitization, credit origins, and holdings
47(5)
1.3.2 The Fed's role in causing the great moderation
52(4)
1.3.3 The movement of long-term and short-term interest rates
56(2)
1.4 Preliminary conclusions
58(3)
2 Historical, Conceptual, and Empirical Approaches to Crises
61(80)
2.1 The influence of the financial system on economic crises: The historical context
61(4)
2.1.1 Tulip crisis
62(1)
2.1.2 The panic of 1907
62(1)
2.1.3 Great depression of the 1930s
63(1)
2.1.4 Great stagflation
63(1)
2.1.5 Dotcom mania
64(1)
2.1.6 The great recession
64(1)
2.2 Considerations about equilibrium illusions
65(12)
2.3 The current status of the literature on economic and financial crises and its critique
77(6)
2.4 An examination of relevant indicators to forecast the crisis
83(56)
2.4.1 The omnipresence of a financial indicator, as a proof of the inseparability of business cycle from financial cycle
84(23)
2.4.2 Instances where inverted yield curve and credit variables may fail to predict crisis
107(8)
2.4.3 Other suitable indicators for predicting crises
115(11)
2.4.4 Signals that are too weak or have lost their ability to add information
126(13)
2.5 Preliminary conclusions
139(2)
3 Coordinates and Determinants of Financial Instability
141(20)
3.1 Evidence from the literature
141(1)
3.2 Main determinants of financial instability
142(17)
3.2.1 Capital mobility and the size of capital
143(2)
3.2.2 Decreasing profitability for financial institutions
145(2)
3.2.3 Economic inequality
147(11)
3.2.4 Low and stable inflation
158(1)
3.3 Preliminary conclusions
159(2)
4 Potential Solutions for Financial Stability
161(14)
4.1 The advantages of Chicago Plan
161(2)
4.2 The benefits of a cashless society
163(1)
4.3 Capital requirements management
163(2)
4.4 Inflation targeting versus price-level targeting, inflation channel, and nominal GDP
165(3)
4.5 Yield curve and interest rates management
168(3)
4.6 Considerations on "helicopter money drop" solution
171(2)
4.7 Preliminary conclusions
173(2)
5 Economic Crisis Forecast Model
175(26)
5.1 The usual recession mechanism
175(2)
5.2 The model proposal
177(15)
5.3 Testing the predictive power of the model based on financial indicators of the Great Recession
192(6)
5.4 Coronavirus recession and its correlation with the proposed model
198(1)
5.5 Preliminary conclusions
199(2)
References 201(46)
List of Appendixes 247(2)
List of Figures 249(6)
List of Tables 255
Sebastian-Ilie Dragoe is an economist at the Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu who specializes in macrofinance. Financial markets, money theory, banking and finance institutions, and econometrics are among his other research interests.



Camelia Oprean-Stan teaches and researches in the areas of finance in the Department of Finance and Accounting, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu. Her research interests also include capital markets, portfolio administration, and financial management.
Biežāk uzdotie jautājumi par e-grāmatām Biežāk uzdotie jautājumi par e-grāmatām
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