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E-grāmata: Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Developers

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  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 19-Feb-2018
  • Izdevniecība: Wiley-Blackwell
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781119106456
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Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for DevelopersPalielināt
  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 19-Feb-2018
  • Izdevniecība: Wiley-Blackwell
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781119106456
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Provides a revolutionary conceptual framework and practical tools to quantify uncertainty and recognize the value of flexibility in real estate development

This book takes a practical "engineering" approach to the valuation of options and flexibility in real estate. It presents simple simulation models built in universal spreadsheet software such as Microsoft Excel®. These realistically reflect the varying and erratic sources of uncertainty and price dynamics that uniquely characterize real estate. The text covers new analytic procedures that are valuable for existing properties and enable a new, more profitable perspective on the planning, design, operation, and evaluation of large-scale, multi-phase development projects. The book thereby aims to significantly improve valuation and investment decision making.

Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Developers is presented at 3 levels. First, it introduces and explains the concepts underlying the approach at a basic level accessible to non-technical and non-specialized readers. Its introductory and concluding chapters present the important “big picture” implications of the analysis for economics and valuation and for project design and investment decision making.

At a second level, the book presents a framework, a roadmap for the prospective analyst. It describes the practical tools in detail, taking care to go through the elements of the approach step-by-step for clarity and easy reference.

The third level includes more technical details and specific models. An Appendix discusses the technical details of real estate price dynamics. Associated web pages provide electronic spreadsheet templates for the models used as examples in the book.

Some features of the book include:
•    Concepts and tools that are simple and accessible to a broad audience of practitioners;
•    An approach relevant for all development projects;
•    Complementarity with the author's Commercial Real Estate Analysis & Investments—the most-cited real estate investments textbook on the market.

Flexibility and Real Estate Valuation under Uncertainty: A Practical Guide for Developers is for everyone studying or concerned with the implementation of large-scale or multi-phase real estate development projects, as well as property investment and valuation more generally.
Foreword xiii
Author's Preface xvii
Acknowledgement xxi
1 Discounted Cash Flow Valuation: The Basic Procedures and Concepts Underlying Spreadsheet Valuation Constitute the Springboard to our Approach of Analyzing Flexibility Under Uncertainty 1(10)
1.1 Why the Focus on the Discounted Cash Flow Model?
2(1)
1.2 Structure of a Discounted Cash Flow Spreadsheet
3(2)
1.3 The Cash Flow Projection
5(2)
1.4 Discount Rate
7(1)
1.5 Market Value and Forward-Looking (Ex-Ante) Analysis
7(2)
1.6 Backward-Looking (Ex-Post) Analysis
9(1)
1.7 Conclusion
9(2)
2 Economics of the Discounted Cash Flow Valuation Model: Understanding the Discount Rate is Critical 11(10)
2.1 Choice of Discount Rate
11(2)
2.2 Differences between Discount Rate, Opportunity Cost of Capital, and Internal Rate of Return
13(1)
2.3 Net Present Value
14(1)
2.4 Relationship between Discount Rate, Growth Rate, and Income Yield
15(3)
2.5 Relationship between Discount Rate and Risk
18(1)
2.6 Conclusion
19(2)
3 Future Scenarios Matter: We Need to Recognize that Future Projections are Uncertain 21(6)
3.1 The Standard Discounted Cash Flow Model Appears to be Deterministic
21(2)
3.2 We Live in a World of Uncertainty
23(1)
3.3 Discounted Cash Flow Pro Forma Cash Flows Are Expectations
24(2)
3.4 Flexibility and Options
26(1)
3.5 Conclusion
26(1)
4 Scenario Analysis: Future Scenarios can Significantly and Surprisingly Affect the Present Value 27(6)
4.1 Discounted Cash Flow Scenario Analysis
27(2)
4.2 Scenarios Affect Value
29(1)
4.3 Flexibility Has Value
30(2)
4.4 Conclusion
32(1)
5 Future Outcomes Cover a Range of Possibilities: We Can Describe Uncertainties in Real Estate Using Probability Distributions of Possible Future Outcomes 33(8)
5.1 Distribution of Future Outcomes
34(1)
5.2 Quantifying Input Distributions
34(4)
5.3 Distributions of Outcomes Differ from Distributions of Inputs
38(1)
5.4 Flaw of Averages
39(1)
5.5 Conclusion
40(1)
6 Simulation of Outcomes: Simulation is a Practical, Efficient Way to Explore Uncertainty and to choose between Alternative Strategies for Managing it 41(6)
6.1 Generating Scenarios
41(1)
6.2 Real Estate Simulation in a Nutshell
42(1)
6.3 Simulation Is an Efficient Process
43(1)
6.4 Number of Trials
44(1)
6.5 Conclusion
45(2)
7 Modeling Price Dynamics: Using Pricing Factors to Model the Dynamics of Real Estate Markets 47(6)
7.1 Pricing Factors
47(2)
7.2 Random Walks
49(2)
7.3 Real Estate Pricing Factor Dynamics
51(1)
7.4 Conclusion
52(1)
8 Interpreting Simulation Results: Target Curves and Scatterplots can be used to Graph the Distribution of the Sample Output 53(8)
8.1 Target Curves
53(4)
8.2 Comparing Target Curves
57(1)
8.3 Value at Risk
57(1)
8.4 Scatterplots
57(2)
8.5 Conclusion
59(2)
9 Resale Timing Decision: Analysis: Let's See what happens when we apply the Tools of Flexibility Analysis to a Classical Investment Decision: when to sell the Property 61(8)
9.1 The Resale Timing Problem
62(1)
9.2 Extending the Time Horizon of the Discounted Cash Flow Model
62(1)
9.3 IF Statements
63(1)
9.4 Trigger Value for Stop-Gain Rule
64(1)
9.5 Value of Example Stop-Gain Rule
64(4)
9.6 Conclusion
68(1)
10 Resale Timing Decision: Discussion: Let's think about Additional Insights we can get from Simulation 69(4)
10.1 Sensitivity Analysis
69(1)
10.2 When to Use the Stop-Gain Rule
70(1)
10.3 Implications of Flexibility for Property Valuation
71(1)
10.4 Conclusion
72(1)
11 Development Project Valuation: This
Chapter Looks at Valuation of Development Projects From an Investment Perspective, Considering Uncertainty, Flexibility, and Time-to-Build		 73(10)
11.1 Time-to-Build Difference between Development Projects and Existing Assets
74(1)
11.2 Lower Opportunity Cost of Capital for Construction Costs
75(2)
11.3 Illustrative Example
77(1)
11.4 Residual Value of Development Land
78(1)
11.5 Investment Risk in Development Project
79(1)
11.6 Conclusion
80(3)
12 Basic Flexibility in Development Projects: The Most Basic Flexibility in Real Estate Development is the Option to Choose whether and when to Build 83(8)
12.1 Review of Call (and Put) Options
84(1)
12.2 Land as a Call Option on Development
85(1)
12.3 Drivers of Option Value
85(1)
12.4 A Practical Example of a Call (and Put) Option
86(2)
12.5 Flexibility and Scenario Analysis for Development Projects
88(2)
12.6 Conclusion
90(1)
13 Option Dichotomies: We Introduce a Typology of Flexibility in Development Projects 91(4)
13.1 Three Dichotomies for Thinking Generally about Development Options
91(1)
13.2 Defensive versus Offensive Options
92(1)
13.3 Options "On" and "In" Projects
93(1)
13.4 Timing Options versus Product Options
94(1)
13.5 Conclusion
94(1)
14 Product Options in Development: We Discuss Three types of Product Options 95(4)
14.1 Concept of Base Plan
95(1)
14.2 Product Expansion Flexibility
96(2)
14.3 Product Mix Flexibility
98(1)
14.4 Conclusion
98(1)
15 Timing Options in Development: Now we Turn to the Types of Timing Options 99(10)
15.1 Project Start-Timing Flexibility (The Delay Option)
99(1)
15.2 Project Production Timing Flexibility
100(2)
15.3 Modular Production Timing Flexibility
102(1)
15.4 Phasing Timing Flexibility
103(1)
15.5 Types of Phasing
103(1)
15.6 Recognizing Defensive and Offensive Options in Simulation Results
104(3)
15.7 Conclusion
107(2)
16 Garden City: An Example Multi-Asset Development Project: We Present the Traditional DCF Valuation Spreadsheet Model for the Example Development Project We use in the Rest of Book 109(10)
16.1 Overview of Multi-Asset Development Project
110(1)
16.2 Structure of a Realistic Multi-Asset Spreadsheet Pro Forma
111(2)
16.3 Cash Flows for the Example Pro Forma
113(2)
16.4 Temporal Profile for Base Case
115(1)
16.5 Expected Economics of the Garden City Project
116(2)
16.6 Conclusion
118(1)
17 Effect of Uncertainty without Flexibility in Development Project Evaluation: We Re-analyze the Garden City Project by Reflecting Uncertainty Without Flexibility 119(12)
17.1 Modeling Uncertainty for the Multi-Asset Development Project
120(2)
17.2 Generating Random Future Scenarios
122(1)
17.3 Outcomes Reflecting Uncertainty for the Multi-Asset Development
123(4)
17.4 Effect of Different Probability Inputs Assumptions
127(2)
17.5 Conclusion
129(2)
18 Project Start-Delay Flexibility: We Model the Value of the Most Basic and Widely Available Development Project Option 131(8)
18.1 Project Start-Delay Option
132(1)
18.2 Option Exercise Decision Rule
132(2)
18.3 Defining "Profit" in the Decision Model
134(1)
18.4 Value of Start-Delay Flexibility in the Garden City Project
134(4)
18.5 Conclusion
138(1)
19 Decision Rules and Value Implications: We Further Explore the Option to Delay the Project Start 139(8)
19.1 Simple Myopic Delay Rule
140(1)
19.2 Trigger Values
140(1)
19.3 Value Implications of the Decision Rules
141(2)
19.4 Effect of Trigger Values (Start or Delay Bias)
143(2)
19.5 Review the Meaning of Flexibility Value
145(1)
19.6 Conclusion
146(1)
20 Modular Production Timing Flexibility: We Explore the Timing Option to Pause and Restart the Project Any Time After its Commencement 147(12)
20.1 Modular Production Timing Flexibility
148(1)
20.2 Modeling the Modular Production Option
148(2)
20.3 Value of Modular Production Timing Flexibility
150(2)
20.4 Effect of Trigger Values (Bias toward Pause or Continue)
152(2)
20.5 Effect of Combining Start-Delay and Modular Production Delay Flexibility
154(3)
20.6 Conclusion
157(2)
21 Product Mix Flexibility: This
Chapter Presents the Option to Change Product Mix, and Examines the Effect of Volatility on Option Value		 159(14)
21.1 Product Mix Flexibility
160(1)
21.2 Modeling the Product Mix Option
160(1)
21.3 Value of Product Mix Flexibility
161(4)
21.4 Effect of Combining Product Mix Flexibility and Timing Options
165(2)
21.5 Effect of Correlation in the Product Markets on the Value of Product Mix Flexibility
167(2)
21.6 Effect of Volatility on the Value of Flexibility
169(3)
21.7 Conclusion
172(1)
22 Project Phasing Flexibility: We Show How to Model and Evaluate the Delay Flexibility Inherent in Project Phasing 173(10)
22.1 Modeling the Sequential Phase Delay Option
173(1)
22.2 Modifying the Garden City Project Plan
174(3)
22.3 Project Economics
177(1)
22.4 The Delay Decision Model
178(1)
22.5 Exploring the Value of Project Phasing Flexibility
179(3)
22.6 Conclusion
182(1)
23 Optimal Phasing: We Now look at Adding Phases, Delineating Phases, and Distinguishing them from Expansion Options 183(10)
23.1 Effect of Increasing the Number of Phases
184(2)
23.2 Principles for Optimal Phasing
186(4)
23.3 What Is the Difference between a Phase and an Expansion Option?
190(1)
23.4 Conclusion
191(2)
24 Overall Summary: We summarize the Main Takeaway Points from this Book 193(4)
Appendix 197(16)
Glossary 213(6)
Acronyms and Symbols 219(2)
Index 221
DAVID GELTNER, PhD is Professor of Real Estate Finance in the MIT Department of Urban Studies & Planning. He has taught for over 15 years in the MIT Center for Real Estate, playing a lead role in its Master of Science in Real Estate Development (MSRED) program. Geltner is a winner of the prestigious Pension Real Estate Association's Graaskamp Award for excellence and influence in the real estate investment industry.

RICHARD DE NEUFVILLE, PhD is Professor of Engineering Systems at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He has received many international professional and teaching awards, including the Sizer Award for the Most Significant Contribution to MIT Education.
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