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xxi | |
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xxiii | |
Introduction to Volume 5 |
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1 | (4) |
Introduction to Behavioral Economics and the Book Volumes |
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5 | (35) |
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1 Some antecedents of behavioral economics |
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7 | (1) |
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2 On methodology in economics |
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8 | (6) |
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3 The experimental method in economics |
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14 | (12) |
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3.1 Experiments and internal validity |
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15 | (2) |
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3.2 Subject pools used in lab experiments |
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17 | (1) |
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3.3 Stake sizes in experiments |
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18 | (1) |
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3.4 The issue of the external validity of lab findings |
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18 | (2) |
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3.5 The role of incentives in economics |
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20 | (3) |
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3.6 Is survey data of any use? |
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23 | (2) |
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3.7 Replications in experimental economics |
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25 | (1) |
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4 Approach and organization of the book |
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26 | (5) |
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5 Appendix A: The random lottery incentive mechanism |
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31 | (1) |
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6 Appendix B: In lieu of a problem set |
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31 | (9) |
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1 Heuristics and biases in judgment and decision making |
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40 | (111) |
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40 | (9) |
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1.2 The law of small numbers |
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49 | (11) |
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1.2.1 Representativeness heuristic |
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49 | (1) |
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1.2.2 Gambler's fallacy and hot hands fallacy |
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50 | (7) |
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1.2.3 A formal model of the law of small numbers |
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57 | (3) |
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60 | (3) |
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1.3.1 Does a natural frequency format resolve the conjunction fallacy? |
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60 | (1) |
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1.3.2 Do monetary incentives and groupthink eliminate the conjunction fallacy? |
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61 | (1) |
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1.3.3 Why does the conjunction fallacy arise? |
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62 | (1) |
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1.4 The availability heuristic |
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63 | (3) |
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66 | (2) |
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1.5.1 Empirical evidence for the affect heuristic |
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67 | (1) |
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1.5.2 The relative affectiveness of the probability and frequency formats |
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68 | (1) |
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1.6 Anchoring and adjustment |
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68 | (6) |
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1.6.1 Empirical evidence for anchoring |
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69 | (2) |
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1.6.2 Legal and regulatory implications of anchoring |
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71 | (1) |
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1.6.3 Robustness of anchoring |
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72 | (1) |
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1.6.4 Explanations of anchoring |
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72 | (2) |
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1.7 Base rate neglect and conservatism |
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74 | (8) |
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74 | (3) |
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77 | (1) |
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1.7.3 A reconciliation of conservatism and base rate neglect |
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78 | (4) |
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82 | (6) |
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1.8.1 Empirical evidence on the hindsight bias |
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82 | (3) |
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1.8.2 Hindsight bias in legal situations |
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85 | (1) |
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1.8.3 What causes hindsight bias? |
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86 | (1) |
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1.8.4 Hindsight bias and the underestimation of financial volatility |
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86 | (2) |
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88 | (6) |
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1.9.1 Empirical evidence for confirmation bias |
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90 | (1) |
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1.9.2 A formal model of confirmation bias and overconfidence |
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91 | (3) |
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1.10 Other judgment heuristics |
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94 | (3) |
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1.10.1 Regression towards the mean |
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95 | (1) |
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1.10.2 False consensus effect |
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95 | (1) |
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1.10.3 Confusion between necessary and sufficient conditions |
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96 | (1) |
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1.10.4 Attribute substitution |
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97 | (1) |
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1.11 Dual process models and judgment heuristics |
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97 | (3) |
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1.12 Coarse thinking and persuasion |
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100 | (6) |
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106 | (2) |
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1.14 Herbert Simon's approach to bounded rationality |
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108 | (18) |
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1.14.1 Aspiration adaptation theory |
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111 | (4) |
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1.14.2 Fast and frugal heuristics |
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115 | (11) |
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1.15 The great rationality debate |
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126 | (4) |
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130 | (6) |
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1.16.1 Empirical evidence |
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131 | (1) |
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1.16.2 A theoretical framework |
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132 | (4) |
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136 | (12) |
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1.17.1 Limited attention and the poor |
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136 | (1) |
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1.17.2 Limited attention and taxes |
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137 | (2) |
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1.17.3 Biased numerical attention |
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139 | (4) |
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1.17.4 A theoretical framework |
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143 | (5) |
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1.18 Do experts exhibit biases? |
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148 | (3) |
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151 | (34) |
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151 | (4) |
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2.1.1 Some examples of mental accounting |
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151 | (2) |
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2.1.2 An introduction to the chapter |
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153 | (2) |
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2.2 Framing and mental accounting |
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155 | (1) |
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2.3 Prospect theory and mental accounting |
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156 | (3) |
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2.4 The behavioral life-cycle model |
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159 | (4) |
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2.4.1 Mental accounting and the life-cycle model |
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160 | (2) |
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2.4.2 Some predictions of the mental accounts model |
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162 | (1) |
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2.5 The red and black of mental accounting |
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163 | (6) |
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169 | (3) |
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2.7 Coherent arbitrariness |
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172 | (2) |
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2.8 Sunk costs and mental accounting |
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174 | (2) |
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2.9 Some other mental accounting phenomena |
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176 | (9) |
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2.9.1 Transaction utility and acquisition utility |
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177 | (1) |
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2.9.2 When to close an account? |
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177 | (1) |
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2.9.3 Self-control and gift giving |
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178 | (2) |
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2.9.4 The house money effect |
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180 | (1) |
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2.9.5 The diversification heuristic |
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181 | (1) |
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2.9.6 The mental accounting of goals |
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182 | (1) |
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2.9.7 The behavioral economics of retirement savings |
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183 | (2) |
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3 Behavioral finance and bounded rationality |
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185 | (59) |
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185 | (3) |
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3.2 The efficient markets hypothesis |
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188 | (14) |
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3.2.1 An introduction to short selling |
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188 | (2) |
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3.2.2 Statement and implications of EMH |
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190 | (1) |
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3.2.3 Evaluating the theoretical case for EMH |
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191 | (4) |
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3.2.4 The empirical evidence on efficiency of financial markets |
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195 | (7) |
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202 | (7) |
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3.4 The limits to arbitrage |
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209 | (8) |
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3.5 Gradual flow of information |
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217 | (3) |
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3.6 Stock market underreaction and overreaction |
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220 | (6) |
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3.7 Behavioral corporate finance |
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226 | (18) |
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3.7.1 An introduction to managerial biases |
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227 | (2) |
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3.7.2 Rational managers, irrational investors, and merger/acquisition activity |
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229 | (6) |
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3.7.3 Managerial overconfidence with rational investors |
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235 | (6) |
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3.7.4 Behavioral corporate signaling |
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241 | (3) |
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4 A Guide to Further Reading |
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244 | (45) |
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244 | (2) |
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4.2 Gambler's fallacy and the hot hands fallacy: Further evidence |
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246 | (3) |
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4.3 Biases in producing a full sampling distribution |
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249 | (3) |
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4.4 Likelihood of the sample and attention to base rates |
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252 | (4) |
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252 | (1) |
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4.4.2 A formulation to study conservatism and base rate neglect |
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252 | (4) |
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4.5 Modeling representativeness |
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256 | (8) |
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4.5.1 Representativeness and local thinking |
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256 | (2) |
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4.5.2 Representativeness and stereotyping |
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258 | (4) |
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4.5.3 Representativeness and diagnostic expectations |
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262 | (2) |
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264 | (1) |
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265 | (4) |
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4.8 Correlation neglect in human decisions |
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269 | (3) |
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272 | (2) |
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4.10 Aspiration adaptation |
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274 | (3) |
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4.11 Expert biases in buying and selling decisions in finance |
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277 | (1) |
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278 | (1) |
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4.13 Exercises for Volume 5 |
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279 | (10) |
References for Volume 5 |
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289 | (28) |
Name Index |
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317 | (7) |
Subject Index |
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324 | |