| Foreword |
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xv | |
| Preface |
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xvii | |
| Abbreviations & Acronyms |
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xix | |
| Stephen H. Schneider: In Memoriam |
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xxv | |
| Introduction Future Climate |
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1 Seeing Further: The Futurology of Climate |
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3 | (26) |
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1.1 The Future of Our Climate: Introduction and Outline |
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3 | (2) |
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1.2 Global Warming: Climate's `Elephant in the Room' |
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5 | (6) |
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1.2.1 Informing the Public on the Greenhouse `Debate' |
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5 | (1) |
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1.2.2 Global Warming `Just a Theory' |
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6 | (3) |
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1.2.3 Schneider and Climate Connectedness |
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9 | (2) |
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1.3 The Complexity of the Future of the World's Climate |
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11 | (5) |
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11 | (1) |
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1.3.2 Challenges in Climate Science |
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12 | (4) |
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1.4 Climate Future of the Coorong: Communicating from Global `Ground Zero' |
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16 | (6) |
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1.4.1 From Global to Local |
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16 | (2) |
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1.4.2 Witnessing the World's First Climate `Ground Zero' |
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18 | (4) |
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1.5 Futurology of Climate |
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22 | (7) |
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25 | (4) |
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Section I The Anthropocene |
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2 People, Policy and Politics in Future Climates |
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29 | (18) |
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2.1 Introduction: Human and Ecological Systems and Paradigm Change |
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29 | (2) |
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2.2 The Challenges of Governance for Mitigation of Climate Change |
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31 | (1) |
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2.3 A Governance Approach to Address Climate Change |
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31 | (3) |
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2.4 Science and Politics in the International Climate Regime |
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34 | (4) |
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2.4.1 IPCC Science and Governance |
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34 | (2) |
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36 | (1) |
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2.4.3 IPCC as an SES Contributor |
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36 | (1) |
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2.4.4 IPCC Projections, Tipping Points, and Policy-Making |
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37 | (1) |
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2.5 The Role of the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol |
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38 | (2) |
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2.6 Top-Down Actions Stemming From Inside and Outside UNFCCC/Kyoto |
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40 | (3) |
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2.6.1 Greenhouse Gas Accounting |
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40 | (1) |
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2.6.2 Development Initiatives on Climate Change |
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40 | (1) |
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2.6.3 EU Member Countries Policies and Programs |
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41 | (1) |
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2.6.4 Climate Change Vacillation by the USA and Australia |
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41 | (1) |
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2.6.5 The Asia Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate |
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42 | (1) |
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2.6.6 New Zealand's Policy Development |
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43 | (1) |
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43 | (1) |
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2.7 Bottom-Up Approaches: Civil Society Participation and Influence |
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43 | (1) |
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2.8 Prospects for the Future |
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44 | (1) |
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2.8.1 Institutional Change |
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44 | (1) |
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44 | (1) |
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2.9 Future Unknowns: Living on a Warmer Earth? |
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45 | (2) |
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3 Urban Climates and Global Climate Change |
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47 | (30) |
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3.1 Introduction: Living in Cities |
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47 | (3) |
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47 | (1) |
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3.1.2 Why Are Urban Climates Important to Future Climates? |
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48 | (2) |
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3.2 Local and Regional Urban Climates: The Biophysical Basis |
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50 | (17) |
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50 | (2) |
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3.2.2 Momentum Fluxes and Turbulence |
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52 | (2) |
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3.2.3 Urban Energy Exchanges |
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54 | (2) |
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3.2.4 Urban Water Balance |
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56 | (5) |
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3.2.5 Urban Carbon Balance |
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61 | (2) |
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3.2.6 Summary: Coupling Energy, Water, and Carbon in Urban Areas |
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63 | (1) |
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3.2.7 Direct Urban Climate Effects |
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64 | (3) |
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3.3 Cities and Global Climate Change |
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67 | (5) |
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3.3.1 Using Urban Design to Mitigate Global Climate Change |
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68 | (3) |
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3.3.2 Adapting to Global Climate Change in Cities |
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71 | (1) |
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3.3.3 Managing Air Quality Risks in a Warmer and Urbanised World |
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72 | (1) |
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3.4 Current State-of-the-Art in Simulating Urban Climates |
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72 | (3) |
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72 | (1) |
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73 | (1) |
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3.4.3 Physically-Based Models |
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73 | (2) |
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3.5 Cities and the Future Climate |
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75 | (2) |
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4 Human Effects on Climate Through Land-Use-Induced Land-Cover Change |
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77 | (22) |
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4.1 Introduction: Land Change and Climate |
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77 | (1) |
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4.2 The Scale of Human Modification |
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78 | (2) |
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4.3 Mechanisms/Processes Through Which LULCC Affects Climate |
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80 | (5) |
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4.3.1 The Terrestrial Carbon Balance |
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80 | (1) |
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4.3.2 The Surface Energy Balance |
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80 | (4) |
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4.3.3 The Surface Water Balance |
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84 | (1) |
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4.3.4 The Snow---Climate Feedback |
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84 | (1) |
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84 | (1) |
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4.4 Links Between LULCC and Climate |
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85 | (7) |
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4.4.1 Hasler et al. (2009) |
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87 | (1) |
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4.4.2 Findell et al. (2006, 2007, 2009) |
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88 | (1) |
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89 | (1) |
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4.4.4 Land-Use and Climate, Identification of Robust Impacts (LUCID): Pitman et al. (2009) |
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89 | (2) |
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4.4.5 Implications of LULCC for Future Simulations; Feddema et al. (2005) |
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91 | (1) |
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4.5 Land Use and Understanding our Future Climate |
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92 | (7) |
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5 Fast and Slow Feedbacks in Future Climates |
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99 | (42) |
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5.1 Introduction: The Sensitive Climate |
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100 | (1) |
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100 | (1) |
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5.1.2 Climate Sensitivity and Feedback Processes |
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101 | (1) |
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5.2 Fast-Feedback Climate Sensitivity |
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101 | (13) |
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5.2.1 Linear Feedback Analysis |
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101 | (2) |
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5.2.2 Climate Sensitivities of AML Models and AOGCMs |
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103 | (3) |
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5.2.3 Observational Validation of the Water Vapour Feedback in AOGCMs |
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106 | (1) |
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5.2.4 Climate Sensitivity Deduced from Historical Temperature Trends |
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107 | (1) |
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5.2.5 Climate Sensitivity Deduced from Observed Short-Term Temperature Changes |
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108 | (2) |
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5.2.6 Climate Sensitivity Deduced from Past Climates and Forcings |
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110 | (1) |
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5.2.7 Evidence from the Co-variation of Temperature and CO2 Over Geological Time |
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111 | (1) |
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5.2.8 Climate Sensitivity Deduced from Slow Variations in Atmospheric CO2 Concentration |
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112 | (1) |
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5.2.9 Conclusion Concerning the Fast-Feedback Climate Sensitivity |
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113 | (1) |
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5.3 Slow Feedback Processes Related to the Carbon Cycle |
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114 | (13) |
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5.3.1 Oceanic Carbon Cycle Processes |
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114 | (1) |
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5.3.2 Ocean Carbon Cycle Feedback Processes |
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115 | (1) |
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5.3.3 Ocean Climate---Carbon Cycle Feedback Processes |
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115 | (1) |
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5.3.4 Observed Climate-Related Changes in Oceanic CO2 Uptake and Related Variables |
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116 | (1) |
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5.3.5 Climate---Ocean-Sink Feedbacks as Projected by Models |
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117 | (1) |
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5.3.6 Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Processes |
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118 | (1) |
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5.3.7 Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Feedback Processes |
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119 | (1) |
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5.3.8 Terrestrial Climate---Carbon Cycle Feedback Processes |
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119 | (5) |
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5.3.9 Terrestrial Climate---Carbon Cycle Feedback: Local and Large-Scale Observations |
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124 | (2) |
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5.3.10 Destabilization of Methane Clathrate |
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126 | (1) |
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5.4 Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Results and Linear Feedback Analysis |
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127 | (10) |
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5.4.1 Effect of the Oceans in Limiting the Transient Temperature Response |
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127 | (2) |
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5.4.2 Climatic Change As a Feedback on the Carbon Cycle |
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129 | (1) |
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5.4.3 The Carbon Cycle As a Climate Feedback |
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130 | (2) |
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5.4.4 Role of Carbon---Nitrogen (C---N) Coupling |
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132 | (1) |
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5.4.5 Combination of Climate Sensitivity and Carbon Feedback Gain Formulation |
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133 | (1) |
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5.4.6 Applying Climate Sensitivity to Future Climate Policy Strategies |
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134 | (3) |
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5.5 Other Slow and Less-Considered Feedbacks |
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137 | (2) |
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5.5.1 Enhanced Land Surface Warming Due to the Physiological Effect of Higher CO2 |
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137 | (1) |
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5.5.2 Shifts in the Distribution of Plant Functional Types |
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137 | (1) |
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5.5.3 Decrease in the Extent of the Greenland Ice Cap |
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138 | (1) |
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5.5.4 Delayed Ocean Circulation Changes and Cloud Feedback |
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138 | (1) |
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5.5.5 Collapse of Marine Bioproductivity and Cloud Feedback |
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138 | (1) |
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5.6 Climate Feedbacks and the Future Climate |
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139 | (2) |
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139 | (2) |
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6 Variability and Change in the Ocean |
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141 | (26) |
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6.1 Introduction: Climate Variability |
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141 | (1) |
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6.2 Observed Ocean Variability and Change |
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142 | (14) |
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6.2.1 Observing the Global Ocean |
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142 | (1) |
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6.2.2 Natural Modes of Variability |
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143 | (3) |
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6.2.3 Surface Temperature and Salinity |
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146 | (1) |
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6.2.4 Heat Content and Sea Level |
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147 | (3) |
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150 | (1) |
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151 | (1) |
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6.2.7 Carbon and Biogeochemistry |
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152 | (3) |
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155 | (1) |
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6.3 Projections for the Future |
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156 | (4) |
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156 | (2) |
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158 | (1) |
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159 | (1) |
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6.4 Ocean Biogeochemical Feedbacks |
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160 | (3) |
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6.4.1 Solubility Carbon Pump |
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161 | (1) |
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6.4.2 The Biological Pump |
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161 | (1) |
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6.4.3 Ocean Acidification Feedbacks |
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162 | (1) |
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6.4.4 Other Climate Feedbacks |
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163 | (1) |
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6.5 Oceanic Variability and Change |
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163 | (4) |
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6.5.1 Oceans and the Future Climate |
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163 | (1) |
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164 | (1) |
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165 | (2) |
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7 Climatic Variability on Decadal to Century Timescales |
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167 | (30) |
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7.1 Introduction: Oceans and Future Climate |
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167 | (4) |
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7.2 Tropical Decadal Variability |
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171 | (2) |
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7.3 Description of Extra-tropical Decadal Variability |
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173 | (5) |
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7.4 Evidence of Centennial Variability |
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178 | (3) |
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7.5 The Stochastic Climate Model: The Null Hypothesis For Climate Variability |
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181 | (13) |
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7.5.1 The Zero-Order Stochastic Climate Model |
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182 | (1) |
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7.5.2 Stochastic Models with Mean Advection and Spatial Coherence |
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182 | (1) |
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7.5.3 Stochastic Wind Stress Forcing of a Dynamical Ocean |
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183 | (1) |
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183 | (1) |
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7.5.5 Stochastically-Driven AMOC Variability |
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184 | (4) |
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7.5.6 Stochastic Coupled Variability Involving the AMOC |
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188 | (1) |
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7.5.7 Stochastically Forced Southern Ocean Variability |
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188 | (1) |
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7.5.8 Forced AMOC Variability |
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189 | (5) |
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7.6 Summary: Future Unknowns |
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194 | (3) |
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8 The Future of the World's Glaciers |
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197 | (26) |
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8.1 Introduction: Climate and the Cryosphere |
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197 | (2) |
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8.1.1 Glaciers in the Context of Climatic Change |
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197 | (1) |
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8.1.2 Glaciers in the Context of Socio-Economic Change |
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198 | (1) |
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198 | (1) |
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199 | (4) |
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8.2.1 Glacier Geography and Physiography |
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199 | (3) |
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8.2.2 The Radiation Balance |
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202 | (1) |
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202 | (1) |
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203 | (2) |
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8.3.1 Terms in the Mass-Balance Equation |
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203 | (2) |
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8.3.2 Definitions and Units |
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205 | (1) |
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205 | (3) |
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8.4.1 Volume---Area Scaling |
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205 | (1) |
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8.4.2 Temperature-Index Models |
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206 | (1) |
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8.4.3 Energy-Balance Models |
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207 | (1) |
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8.4.4 Mass-Balance Sensitivity |
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207 | (1) |
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8.4.5 Models of Glacier Dynamics |
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208 | (1) |
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8.5 Recent and Present States of the World's Glaciers |
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208 | (5) |
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208 | (1) |
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8.5.2 Evolution of Glacier Mass Balance Since the Little Ice Age |
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209 | (1) |
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8.5.3 Measurements of Shrinkage |
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209 | (1) |
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8.5.4 Present-Day Extent and Thickness |
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210 | (1) |
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8.5.5 Recent Evolution of Glacier Mass Balance |
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211 | (2) |
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8.6 The Outlook for Glaciers |
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213 | (7) |
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8.6.1 Future Contributions to Sea-Level Rise |
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213 | (6) |
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8.6.2 The Future of Himalayan Glaciers |
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219 | (1) |
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8.7 Reflections: Glaciers and the Future Climate |
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220 | (3) |
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220 | (1) |
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8.7.2 Gaps in Understanding |
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221 | (1) |
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8.7.3 The Probability Distribution Function of Glacier Futures: Glimpses of the Known and Unknown |
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221 | (1) |
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222 | (1) |
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9 Future Regional Climates |
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223 | (30) |
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9.1 Introduction: Close-Up of Climate Change |
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223 | (1) |
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9.2 Regional-Scale Climate Phenomena |
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224 | (8) |
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224 | (2) |
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9.2.2 Sea Breezes and Monsoons |
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226 | (2) |
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9.2.3 Orographic Precipitation, Rain Shadows, and Foehn Winds |
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228 | (1) |
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9.2.4 Mountain Barrier Jets |
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228 | (1) |
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9.2.5 Regional Climate Change Impacts |
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228 | (4) |
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9.3 Downscaling Global Climate Projections |
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232 | (5) |
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9.3.1 Dynamical Downscaling |
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232 | (4) |
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9.3.2 Statistical Downscaling |
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236 | (1) |
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9.4 Sources of Uncertainty |
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237 | (6) |
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237 | (1) |
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238 | (1) |
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9.4.3 Uncertainty from Downscaling Techniques |
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239 | (2) |
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241 | (2) |
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9.5 Achieving Regional Climate Predictions |
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243 | (7) |
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243 | (3) |
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9.5.2 Greenland Mass Balance |
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246 | (1) |
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9.5.3 Understanding Tropical Cyclones |
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246 | (4) |
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9.6 Regionalizing Future Climate |
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250 | (3) |
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Section III Looking Forward |
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10 Climate and Weather Extremes: Observations, Modelling, and Projections |
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253 | (36) |
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10.1 Introduction: Extremes of Climate |
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253 | (7) |
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10.1.1 Why Study Weather and Climate Extremes? |
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253 | (4) |
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10.1.2 Definition of Climate Extremes |
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257 | (3) |
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10.2 Methodological Issues Regarding the Analysis of Extremes |
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260 | (8) |
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10.2.1 Quality and Homogeneity of Observed Data |
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260 | (2) |
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10.2.2 Statistical Analysis of Extremes |
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262 | (3) |
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265 | (3) |
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10.3 Observed Changes in Extremes |
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268 | (10) |
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10.3.1 Temperature Extremes |
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268 | (5) |
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10.3.2 Precipitation Extremes |
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273 | (2) |
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10.3.3 Complex (Compound) Extremes |
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275 | (3) |
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10.4 Climate Processes and Climate Extremes |
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278 | (2) |
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10.4.1 Natural Modes of Variability of the Climate System and Their Influence on Extremes' Behaviour |
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278 | (1) |
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10.4.2 Land-Atmosphere Feedback Processes' Influence on Extremes |
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279 | (1) |
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10.5 How Well do Climate Models Simulate Extremes? |
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280 | (1) |
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281 | (7) |
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10.6.1 Temperature Extremes |
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283 | (2) |
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10.6.2 Precipitation Extremes |
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285 | (2) |
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10.6.3 Tropical and Extra-tropical Storms |
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287 | (1) |
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10.7 Extremes in Our Future Climate |
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288 | (1) |
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11 Interaction Between Future Climate and Terrestrial Carbon and Nitrogen |
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289 | (20) |
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11.1 Introduction: Cycling Terrestrial Nutrients |
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289 | (1) |
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11.2 Climate System Feedbacks |
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290 | (2) |
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290 | (2) |
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292 | (1) |
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292 | (1) |
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11.3 Biogeochemical Processes |
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292 | (5) |
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292 | (2) |
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11.3.2 Down-regulation of Leaf Photosynthetic Capacity |
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294 | (1) |
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295 | (1) |
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11.3.4 Nitrogen Cycling and Feedbacks on Carbon |
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295 | (2) |
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297 | (1) |
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11.4 Observational Constraints |
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297 | (6) |
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11.4.1 General Considerations of Rates and Timescales |
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297 | (1) |
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11.4.2 Dependence of Carbon Assimilation on CO2 and N at Leaf Level |
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298 | (1) |
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11.4.3 Leaf-Level Response to Drought |
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299 | (1) |
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11.4.4 Temperature Dependence of Carbon Assimilation |
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299 | (1) |
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11.4.5 Dependence of Plant Growth on CO2 and N |
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300 | (1) |
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11.4.6 A Network for Monitoring the `Breathing' of the Terrestrial Biosphere |
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301 | (1) |
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11.4.7 Atmosphere Concentration as a Global Constraint on Terrestrial Sources and Sinks |
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302 | (1) |
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11.5 Modelling Nitrogen-Carbon Interactions |
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303 | (4) |
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11.5.1 Scaling from Leaf to Canopy |
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303 | (1) |
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11.5.2 Modelling Plant and Soil Carbon and Nitrogen Cycling |
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304 | (1) |
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11.5.3 Modelling Nitrogen Fixation |
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305 | (1) |
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11.5.4 Modelling Nitrification and Leaching Losses |
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305 | (1) |
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11.5.5 What Models Tell Us About How Terrestrial Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles Will Change and Interact with the Atmosphere in Future Climates |
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305 | (2) |
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11.5.6 Response of Soil Carbon to Future Climate Change |
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307 | (1) |
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11.6 Consequences of Land-Use and Land-Cover Change for Carbon and Nitrogen Cycles |
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307 | (1) |
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11.7 Vegetation and the Future Climate |
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308 | (1) |
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308 | (1) |
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12 Atmospheric Composition Change: Climate---Chemistry Interactions |
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309 | (58) |
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310 | (2) |
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12.2 Key Interactions in the Climate---Chemistry System |
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312 | (5) |
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12.2.1 Observing Chemistry---Climate Interactions |
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313 | (1) |
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12.2.2 Modelling Chemistry---Climate Interactions |
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313 | (1) |
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314 | (2) |
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12.2.4 Upper Tropospheric Processes |
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316 | (1) |
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12.3 Trends in Emissions of Chemical Species and in Chemically Active Greenhouse Compounds |
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317 | (5) |
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317 | (5) |
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12.4 Distribution and Changes of Chemical Active Greenhouse Gases and Their Precursors |
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322 | (15) |
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12.4.1 Observations and Analysis of Greenhouse Gases and Their Precursors |
|
|
322 | (7) |
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12.4.2 Modelling Future Changes |
|
|
329 | (3) |
|
12.4.3 Aerosol Distribution and Interaction |
|
|
332 | (3) |
|
12.4.4 Observed Brightening and Dimming Trends over the Last 40 Years |
|
|
335 | (2) |
|
12.5 Climate Impact from Emission Changes |
|
|
337 | (8) |
|
12.5.1 Radiative Forcing from Gases |
|
|
337 | (3) |
|
12.5.2 Direct Aerosol Effect |
|
|
340 | (1) |
|
12.5.3 Semidirect Effects of Aerosols |
|
|
341 | (1) |
|
12.5.4 Aerosol Indirect Effects |
|
|
342 | (2) |
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12.5.5 Radiative Forcing Summary |
|
|
344 | (1) |
|
12.6 Contributions to Tropospheric Changes from the Transport Sector and for Different Regions |
|
|
345 | (9) |
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12.6.1 Composition Change Due to Emission from the Transport Sectors |
|
|
346 | (4) |
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12.6.2 Climate Impact from the Transport Sectors |
|
|
350 | (2) |
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12.6.3 The Impact of Large Emission Increases in South East Asia |
|
|
352 | (1) |
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12.6.4 Impact on the Arctic (Arctic Haze) |
|
|
353 | (1) |
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12.7 Impact on Tropospheric Composition from Climate Change and Changes In Stratospheric Composition |
|
|
354 | (4) |
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12.7.1 Impact of Climate Change on Future Tropospheric Composition |
|
|
354 | (3) |
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12.7.2 Impact of Stratospheric Changes on Tropospheric Composition |
|
|
357 | (1) |
|
12.8 Cross Cutting Issues (Policy Relations, Integration) |
|
|
358 | (5) |
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12.8.1 Climatic Response to Solar Forcing: Overview of Theories |
|
|
359 | (1) |
|
|
|
360 | (2) |
|
12.8.3 Future Directions for Climate---Chemistry Research |
|
|
362 | (1) |
|
12.9 Summary and Conclusions |
|
|
363 | (4) |
|
|
|
365 | (2) |
|
13 Climate---Chemistry Interaction: Future Tropospheric Ozone and Aerosols |
|
|
367 | (36) |
|
13.1 Atmospheric Composition, Chemistry, and Climate |
|
|
367 | (3) |
|
|
|
367 | (1) |
|
13.1.2 Anthropogenic Activity and Climate Changes |
|
|
368 | (1) |
|
13.1.3 Climate---Chemistry Interaction: Regional-Scales |
|
|
369 | (1) |
|
13.1.4 Focus of This
Chapter |
|
|
370 | (1) |
|
13.2 Climatically-Important Chemical Compounds |
|
|
370 | (10) |
|
13.2.1 Tropospheric Ozone |
|
|
370 | (2) |
|
13.2.2 Tropospheric Aerosols |
|
|
372 | (6) |
|
13.2.3 Coupling Changes of Chemistry and Climate |
|
|
378 | (2) |
|
13.3 Climate---Chemistry Interaction of Tropospheric Ozone |
|
|
380 | (7) |
|
13.3.1 The Role of Ozone As a Climatically Active Compound |
|
|
380 | (1) |
|
|
|
381 | (1) |
|
13.3.3 Ozone---Climate Coupling |
|
|
382 | (1) |
|
13.3.4 Effect of Ozone---Climate Interaction |
|
|
383 | (4) |
|
13.4 Climate---Chemistry Interaction of Tropospheric Sulfate Aerosols |
|
|
387 | (5) |
|
13.4.1 The Role of Sulfate Aerosols As a Climatically-Active Compound |
|
|
387 | (1) |
|
13.4.2 Sulfate Aerosol---Climate Coupling |
|
|
388 | (1) |
|
13.4.3 Effect of Climate---Chemistry Interactions |
|
|
388 | (2) |
|
13.4.4 Predicting Future Aerosol Impact on Climate |
|
|
390 | (2) |
|
13.5 Mitigation Policies for Climate and Air Quality |
|
|
392 | (5) |
|
13.5.1 Mitigation Studies from the Transport Sector |
|
|
392 | (1) |
|
13.5.2 Tropospheric Aerosols |
|
|
393 | (3) |
|
13.5.3 Tropospheric Ozone |
|
|
396 | (1) |
|
13.6 Future Study of Climate---Chemistry Interaction |
|
|
397 | (6) |
|
13.6.1 Extending Current Case Studies |
|
|
397 | (1) |
|
13.6.2 Climate---Chemistry `Known Unknowns' |
|
|
397 | (2) |
|
13.6.3 Atmospheric Chemistry and Future Climate |
|
|
399 | (1) |
|
|
|
399 | (4) |
|
Section IV Learning Lessons |
|
|
|
14 Records from the Past, Lessons for the Future: What the Palaeorecord Implies about Mechanisms of Global Change |
|
|
403 | (34) |
|
14.1 Timescales of Climate Change, their Causation, and Detection |
|
|
403 | (12) |
|
14.1.1 The Climate System and Timescales of Variability |
|
|
407 | (1) |
|
14.1.2 Insolation Variations |
|
|
408 | (2) |
|
14.1.3 Implications of Insolation Variations |
|
|
410 | (1) |
|
14.1.4 Co-variation of Climate and Biogeochemical Cycles Over the Past 800 kyr |
|
|
411 | (2) |
|
14.1.5 The Hierarchy of Climatic Variations and the Explanation of Palaeoclimatic Records |
|
|
413 | (1) |
|
14.1.6 Cycles and Spurious Periodicity: A Warning |
|
|
414 | (1) |
|
14.2 Regional Responses to Millennial-Scale Forcing |
|
|
415 | (9) |
|
14.2.1 The Last Glacial Maximum |
|
|
415 | (3) |
|
|
|
418 | (3) |
|
14.2.3 Consistency of Spatial Responses in Warm and Cold Climates |
|
|
421 | (1) |
|
14.2.4 Different Spatial Scales of Response |
|
|
422 | (2) |
|
14.2.5 Changes in Teleconnections/Short-Term Variability |
|
|
424 | (1) |
|
14.3 Rapid Climate Changes |
|
|
424 | (6) |
|
14.3.1 Examples of Rapid/Abrupt Climate Changes |
|
|
426 | (1) |
|
14.3.2 Characteristics of Dansgaard---Oeschger (D---O) Cycles |
|
|
427 | (1) |
|
14.3.3 Mechanisms for D---O Cycles |
|
|
428 | (1) |
|
14.3.4 Spatial Patterns of D---O Cycles |
|
|
429 | (1) |
|
|
|
430 | (2) |
|
14.5 Lessons from the Past for the Study of Climate Changes |
|
|
432 | (3) |
|
14.6 Lessons from the Past for Future Climates |
|
|
435 | (2) |
|
|
|
436 | (1) |
|
15 Modelling the Past and Future Interglacials in Response to Astronomical and Greenhouse Gas Forcing |
|
|
437 | (26) |
|
15.1 Introduction: Interglacials and Warm Climate |
|
|
437 | (2) |
|
15.2 Model and Experiments Used for Simulating the Last Nine Interglacials |
|
|
439 | (3) |
|
15.3 Precession and Obliquity During the Interglacials |
|
|
442 | (1) |
|
15.4 Latitudinal and Seasonal Distribution of Insolation |
|
|
443 | (1) |
|
15.5 Modelling the GHG and Insolation Contributions to the Difference Between Pre- and Post-MBE Interglacials |
|
|
443 | (4) |
|
15.6 GHG and Insolation Contributions to the Individual Interglacial Climates |
|
|
447 | (11) |
|
15.6.1 The Reference Climate |
|
|
447 | (1) |
|
15.6.2 Pure Contribution of GHG |
|
|
448 | (2) |
|
15.6.3 Pure Contribution of Insolation |
|
|
450 | (5) |
|
15.6.4 Combined Effect of Insolation and GHG |
|
|
455 | (3) |
|
15.7 Future of Our Interglacial |
|
|
458 | (3) |
|
15.7.1 Future Insolation and Analogues for the Holocene |
|
|
458 | (2) |
|
15.7.2 Modelling the Future of Holocene |
|
|
460 | (1) |
|
15.7.3 Ruddiman Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis |
|
|
461 | (1) |
|
15.8 Probing Future Astro-Climates |
|
|
461 | (2) |
|
|
|
462 | (1) |
|
16 Catastrophe: Extraterrestrial Impacts, Massive Volcanism, and the Biosphere |
|
|
463 | (26) |
|
16.1 Introduction: What is a Climate Catastrophe? |
|
|
463 | (1) |
|
16.2 Massive Volcanism: Case Study of the Triassic-Jurassic (Tr---J) Event |
|
|
464 | (8) |
|
|
|
464 | (1) |
|
16.2.2 A Definition of the Triassic---Jurassic Boundary |
|
|
464 | (1) |
|
16.2.3 Break-Up of Pangaea and Massive Volcanism at the Tr---J Transition |
|
|
465 | (1) |
|
16.2.4 The Earth's Physical Environment at the Triassic---Jurassic Transition |
|
|
465 | (3) |
|
16.2.5 Mass Extinction and Biotic Changes at the Triassic---Jurassic Transition |
|
|
468 | (1) |
|
16.2.6 Relationship Between CAMP Volcanism and Biotic Change at the Tr---J |
|
|
469 | (2) |
|
|
|
471 | (1) |
|
16.3 Extraterrestrial Impacts: Case Study of the End-Cretaceous Events |
|
|
472 | (4) |
|
16.3.1 A Definition of the Cretaceous---Palaeogene Boundary |
|
|
473 | (1) |
|
16.3.2 Impact at the End of the Cretaceous |
|
|
473 | (1) |
|
16.3.3 Deccan and Other Volcanism |
|
|
474 | (1) |
|
16.3.4 Mass Extinction and Biotic Changes at the Cretaceous---Palaeogene Boundary |
|
|
475 | (1) |
|
16.4 The Potential of the K---Pg Impact to Cause Environmental Change |
|
|
476 | (7) |
|
16.4.1 K---Pg Ground Zero |
|
|
476 | (1) |
|
|
|
476 | (3) |
|
16.4.3 Extinction Mechanisms and Biotic Change at the K---Pg Boundary |
|
|
479 | (4) |
|
16.4.4 Concluding Remarks on the K---Pg Event |
|
|
483 | (1) |
|
16.5 Comparison of the Tr---J And K---Pg Events |
|
|
483 | (1) |
|
16.6 `Deep-Time' Context for Anthropogenic Environmental and Climate Change |
|
|
484 | (1) |
|
16.7 Future Climate Catastrophes |
|
|
485 | (4) |
|
|
|
485 | (4) |
|
Section V Understanding the Unknowns |
|
|
|
17 Future Climate Surprises |
|
|
489 | (20) |
|
17.1 Introduction: Probing Future Climates |
|
|
489 | (1) |
|
17.2 Defining Climate Surprises |
|
|
490 | (3) |
|
17.2.1 Tipping Points and Noise-Induced Transitions |
|
|
490 | (2) |
|
17.2.2 Policy-Relevant Tipping Elements |
|
|
492 | (1) |
|
17.3 Melting of Large Masses of Ice |
|
|
493 | (2) |
|
|
|
493 | (1) |
|
17.3.2 Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) |
|
|
494 | (1) |
|
17.3.3 West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) |
|
|
494 | (1) |
|
|
|
494 | (1) |
|
17.3.5 Ocean Methane Hydrates? |
|
|
495 | (1) |
|
17.3.6 Himalayan Glaciers? |
|
|
495 | (1) |
|
17.4 Changes in Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulation |
|
|
495 | (2) |
|
17.4.1 Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) |
|
|
495 | (1) |
|
17.4.2 El Nino---Southern Oscillation (ENSO) |
|
|
496 | (1) |
|
17.4.3 Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC) |
|
|
496 | (1) |
|
17.4.4 West African Monsoon (WAM) and Sahel-Sahara |
|
|
496 | (1) |
|
17.4.5 Southwest North America (SWNA)? |
|
|
497 | (1) |
|
|
|
497 | (1) |
|
|
|
497 | (1) |
|
|
|
498 | (1) |
|
|
|
498 | (1) |
|
17.6 Coping with Climate Surprises |
|
|
498 | (7) |
|
|
|
498 | (1) |
|
17.6.2 Removing the Element of Surprise? |
|
|
499 | (1) |
|
17.6.3 Early Warning of Bifurcations |
|
|
500 | (1) |
|
17.6.4 Limitations on Early Warning |
|
|
501 | (1) |
|
17.6.5 Bifurcations in Noisy Systems |
|
|
502 | (1) |
|
17.6.6 Application to Past Abrupt Climate Changes |
|
|
503 | (2) |
|
17.7 Future Climate: Surprises, Responses, and Recovery Strategies |
|
|
505 | (2) |
|
|
|
505 | (1) |
|
|
|
506 | (1) |
|
17.7.3 Rational Responses? |
|
|
506 | (1) |
|
17.7.4 Recovery Prospects |
|
|
507 | (1) |
|
17.8 Conclusion: Gaps in Knowledge |
|
|
507 | (2) |
|
|
|
507 | (2) |
|
18 Future Climate: One Vital Component of Trans-disciplinary Earth System Science |
|
|
509 | (22) |
|
18.1 Gaia and Earth System Science |
|
|
509 | (11) |
|
18.1.1 Earth: An Integrated System |
|
|
509 | (2) |
|
18.1.2 The Gaia Hypothesis |
|
|
511 | (2) |
|
18.1.3 Earth System Science |
|
|
513 | (4) |
|
18.1.4 Advances in Earth System Science |
|
|
517 | (3) |
|
18.2 Humans in the Earth System |
|
|
520 | (5) |
|
18.2.1 Climate Change and the Gaian Governance Monkeys |
|
|
520 | (1) |
|
18.2.2 Social Tipping Points in Climate Change: 2007 to 2010 |
|
|
521 | (1) |
|
18.2.3 Research Requires a Meritocracy; Decisions Demand Democracy |
|
|
522 | (1) |
|
18.2.4 Integrity Paradox: Policy Prescription or People's Ponzi |
|
|
523 | (1) |
|
|
|
524 | (1) |
|
18.3 Trans-Disciplinary Earth System Science |
|
|
525 | (6) |
|
18.3.1 Creating a Social Contract with Society |
|
|
525 | (1) |
|
18.3.2 ESS Trans-disciplinarity in Action |
|
|
526 | (1) |
|
18.3.3 Future Climates: Exploiting Trans-disciplinary Earth System Science |
|
|
527 | (2) |
|
|
|
529 | (2) |
| Bibliography |
|
531 | (92) |
| Index |
|
623 | (16) |
| Editors' Biographies |
|
639 | (2) |
| Biographies |
|
641 | |
