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General Circulation Model Development: Past, Present, and Future, Volume 70 [Hardback]

(Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA)
  • Formāts: Hardback, 416 pages, height x width: 229x152 mm, weight: 1250 g
  • Sērija : International Geophysics
  • Izdošanas datums: 19-Jul-2000
  • Izdevniecība: Academic Press Inc
  • ISBN-10: 0125780109
  • ISBN-13: 9780125780100
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  • Formāts: Hardback, 416 pages, height x width: 229x152 mm, weight: 1250 g
  • Sērija : International Geophysics
  • Izdošanas datums: 19-Jul-2000
  • Izdevniecība: Academic Press Inc
  • ISBN-10: 0125780109
  • ISBN-13: 9780125780100
Citas grāmatas par šo tēmu:
Randall (atmospheric sciences, Colorado State U., Fort Collins) is joined by atmospheric specialists and NASA scientists, in contributing to this collection of articles originally presented at a 1998 symposium to honor Akio Arakawa. The volume incorporates the history of general circulation models (used for global weather prediction and anthropogenic climate change simulations), and topics such as quasi-equilibrium thinking, development of medium and extended-range forecasts, and formulation of oceanic general circulation models. Annotation c. Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are rapidly assuming widespread use as powerful tools for predicting global events on time scales of months to decades, such as the onset of EL Nino, monsoons, soil moisture saturation indices, global warming estimates, and even snowfall predictions. While GCMs have been praised for helping to foretell the current El Nino and its impact on droughts in Indonesia, its full power is only now being recognized by international scientists and governments who seek to link GCMs to help them estimate fish harvests, risk of floods, landslides, and even forest fires.
Scientists in oceanography, hydrology, meteorology, and climatology and civil, ocean, and geological engineers perceive a need for a reference on GCM design. In this compilation of information by an internationally recognized group of experts, Professor Randall brings together the knowledge base of the forerunners in theoretical and applied frontiers of GCM development. General Circulation Model Development focuses on the past, present, and future design of numerical methods for general circulation modeling, as well as the physical parameterizations required for their proper implementation. Additional chapters on climate simulation and other applications provide illustrative examples of state-of-the-art GCM design.

Key Features
* Foreword by Norman Phillips
* Authoritative overviews of current issues and ideas on global circulation modeling by leading experts
* Retrospective and forward-looking chapters by Akio Arakawa of UCLA
* Historical perspectives on the early years of general circulation modeling
* Indispensable reference for researchers and graduate students

General Circulation Models (GCMs) are rapidly assuming widespread use as powerful tools for predicting global events on time scales of months to decades, such as the onset of EL Nino, monsoons, soil moisture saturation indices, global warming estimates, and even snowfall predictions. While GCMs have been praised for helping to foretell the current El Nino and its impact on droughts in Indonesia, its full power is only now being recognized by international scientists and governments who seek to link GCMs to help them estimate fish harvests, risk of floods, landslides, and even forest fires.
Scientists in oceanography, hydrology, meteorology, and climatology and civil, ocean, and geological engineers perceive a need for a reference on GCM design. In this compilation of information by an internationally recognized group of experts, Professor Randall brings together the knowledge base of the forerunners in theoretical and applied frontiers of GCM development. General Circulation Model Development focuses on the past, present, and future design of numerical methods for general circulation modeling, as well as the physical parameterizations required for their proper implementation. Additional chapters on climate simulation and other applications provide illustrative examples of state-of-the-art GCM design.

Key Features
* Foreword by Norman Phillips
* Authoritative overviews of current issues and ideas on global circulation modeling by leading experts
* Retrospective and forward-looking chapters by Akio Arakawa of UCLA
* Historical perspectives on the early years of general circulation modeling
* Indispensable reference for researchers and graduate students

Recenzijas

"The book constitutes a most important reference for general circulation modeling, and should be useful for students, teachers and researchers. The editor, David A. Randall, has done an extraordinary job in maintaining the high quality and uniform standards of the contributions ... the appearance of this book is a major contribution to the field, and the editor should be congratulated for his excellent job." --Eugenia Kalnay, Bulletin of the AMS, (May 2001)

"Although it is primarily a celebration of the breadth and influence of Arakawa's work, particularly on numerical methods for general circulation models (GCMs) and the parametrization of cumulus convection, the book contains a great deal of valuable matieral that is well presented and well worth reading. ...an excellent book, with presentations that provide a historical as well as scientific perspective. All concerned should be congratulated, notably David Randall for the considerable task of editing material that covers 23 chapters and just over 800 pages. This is a fitting tribute to one of the great innovators and thinkers of our science." QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY

Papildus informācija

Key Features * Foreword by Norman Phillips * Authoritative overviews of current issues and ideas on global circulation modeling by leading experts * Retrospective and forward-looking chapters by Akio Arakawa of UCLA * Historical perspectives on the early years of general circulation modeling * Indispensable reference for researchers and graduate students
Contributors xxiii Foreword xxvii Preface xxxi A Personal Perspective on the Early Years of General Circulation Modeling at UCLA Akio Arakawa Introduction 1(1) Early History of Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere 2(6) The Prelude (--1950) 2(4) The ``Epoch-Making First Phase (1950--1960) 6(2) AAs Personal Pre-UCLA History 8(5) The ``Arakawa Jacobian 13(5) Development of the Mintz-Arakawa Model 18(3) Second Phase of Numerical Modeling of the Atmosphere and the Evolution of Different Generations of the UCLA GCM 21(4) The ``Magnificent Second Phase (1960-1990) 21(1) Evolution of Different Generations of the UCLA GCM 22(3) Vertical Differencing in the UCLA GCM 25(5) Background: Lorenzs Model 25(2) Evolution of Vertical Differencing in the UCLA GCM 27(2) Further Remarks on Vertical Differencing 29(1) Horizontal Differencing in the UCLA GCM 30(8) Horizontal Differencing in the Generation I GCM 30(2) Geostrophic Adjustment in Discrete Systems 32(2) Horizontal Differencing in the Generation II GCM 34(1) Zonal Smoothing of Selected Terms Near the Poles 35(1) Horizontal Differencing in the Generation III GCM 36(1) Horizontal Differencing in the Generation IV GCM 36(2) Formulation of PBL Processes in the UCLA GCM 38(6) Formulation of PBL Processes in the Generation II GCM 40(1) Background for the PBL Formulations for Later Generations 40(3) Formulation of PBL Process in the Generation III and IV GCMs 43(1) Formulation of Moist Processes in the UCLA GCM 44(1) Formulation of ``Moist Processes in the Generation I GCM 44(9) Struggle to Find the Physical Basis for Cumulus Parameterization 44(2) Formulation of Moist-Convective Processes in the Generation II GCMs: Cumulus Parameterization by Arakawa (1969) 46(3) Vertical Advection of Moisture in the Generation III and IV GCMs 49(2) Formulation of Moist-Convective Processes in the Generation III and IV GCMs: Cumulus Parameterization by Arakawa and Schubert (1974) 51(2) Closing Remarks 53(14) Appendix A 54(4) Appendix B 58(2) References 60(7) A Brief History of Atmospheric General Circulation Modeling Paul N. Edwards Introduction 67(1) Before 1955: Numerical Weather Prediction and the Prehistory of GCMs 68(2) Richardsons ``Forecast Factory 68(1) Computers, Weather, and War in the 1940s 69(1) The Swedish Institute of Meteorology 69(1) The Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit 70(1) 1955--1965: Establishment of General Circulation Modeling 70(1) The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory 71(2) Manabe and the GFDL General Circulation Modeling Program 71(1) The GFDL Atmospheric GCMs 72(1) The UCLA Department of Meteorology 73(3) Mintz and Arakawa 74(1) Widespread Influence 74(1) The UCLA Models 74(2) The Livermore Atmospheric Model 76(1) The National Center for Atmospheric Research 77(2) The Kasahara-Washington Models (NCAR 1-3) 77(1) The Community Climate Model 78(1) 1965--1975: Spread of GCMs 79(3) Modeling Groups Proliferate 79(1) Modeling Innovations 80(1) Research on Carbon Dioxide and Climate 81(1) Early Climate Politics and GCMs 81(1) 1975--1985: GCMs Mature 82(2) Computer Power 82(1) Spread of Modeling Capacity 83(1) Modeling Innovations and Experiments 83(1) Climate Politics 84(1) Conclusion 84(7) Appendix 85(2) References 87(4) Clarifying the Dynamics of the General Circulation: Phillips 1956 Experiment John M. Lewis Introduction 91(3) General Circulation: Ideas and Controversies, 1940s to Early 1950s 94(9) Rossby: Lateral Diffusion 95(2) Jeffries--Starr--Bjerknes--Priestley--Fultz: Asymmetric Eddies 97(2) Palmen and Riehl: Jet Streams 99(3) Controversies 102(1) The Experiment 103(12) Model and Computational Constraints 105(3) The Basic State 108(1) The Disturbed State 108(1) Zonal-Mean Winds 109(2) Momentum Budget 111(1) Thermodynamic Budget 111(1) Energetics 112(3) Reaction to the Experiment 115(4) Sir Napier Shaw Lecture 116(1) Princeton Conference 117(1) Vignettes 117(2) Epilogue 119(8) References 121(6) Climate Modeling in the Global Warming Debate J. Hansen R. Ruedy A. Lacis M. Sato L. Nazarenko N. Tausnev I. Tegen D. Koch Introduction 127(1) GISS Global Climate Models 128(7) Weather Model Prelude 128(1) Initial GISS Climate Model 129(4) Model Variations and Philosophy 133(2) Climate Sensitivity 135(4) Charney Report 135(2) Ice Age 137(2) Transient Climate: Climate Predictions 139(8) Climate Response Time: Simple Ocean Models 139(2) Global Climate Predictions 141(2) Forcings and Chaos 143(4) Missing Atmospheric Absorption 147(7) Global Warming Debate 154(5) Reality of Warming 154(2) Climate Sensitivity 156(1) Water Vapor Feedback 156(1) CO2 Contribution to Natural Greenhouse 157(1) When Will Climate Change Be Obvious? 157(1) Planetary Disequilibrium 158(1) A Cautionary Conclusion 159(6) References 161(4) A Retrospective Analysis of the Pioneering Data Assimilation Experiments with the Mintz--Arakawa General Circulation Model Milton Halem Jules Kouatchou Andrea Hudson Introduction 165(2) Description of Experiments 167(1) Results of GEOS Simulation Experiments 168(7) Conclusions 175(6) References 178(3) A Retrospective View of Arakawas Ideas on Cumulus Parameterization Wayne H. Schubert Introduction 181(2) Primitive Equation Models, Quasi-Geostrophic Models, and the Concept of Filtering the Transient Aspects of Geostrophic Adjustment 183(5) Arakawas 1968 Cumulus Parameterization: Laying the Conceptual Foundation for Future Work 188(5) Generalization to the Spectral Form of Cumulus Parameterization Theory 193(4) Conclusions 197(2) References 198(1) On the Origin of Cumulus Parameterization for Numerical Prediction Models Akira Kasahara Introduction 199(1) Treatment of Cumulus Convection in Tropical Cyclone Models 200(7) Treatment of Cumulus Convection in General Circulation Models 207(3) Advent of Arakawa-Schubert Cumulus Parameterization 210(7) Epilogue 217(8) References 221(4) Quasi-Equilibrium Thinking Kerry Emanuel Introduction 225(2) Is ``Latent Heating a Useful Concept? 227(11) Dry Convective Turbulence 228(2) Moist Convective Turbulence: The Naive Approach 230(2) Moist Convective Turbulence: Dotting the is 232(2) What Does Equilibrium Convection Look Like? 234(3) Quasi-Equilibrium and Convective Inhibition 237(1) The Physics of Convective Quasi-Equilibrium 238(2) Nonequilibrium Thinking 240(7) Equilibrium Thinking 247(6) Summary 253(4) References 254(3) Application of Relaxed Arakawa--Schubert Cumulus Parameterization to the NCEP Climate Model: Some Sensitivity Experiments Shrinivas Moorthi Introduction 257(2) Modification of Relaxed Arakawa-Schubert 259(2) Reevaporation of the Falling Convective Precipitation 259(1) Some Additional Aspects of RAS 260(1) The New NCEP Climate Model 261(2) Sensitivity in Semi-Prognostic Test 263(2) Sensitivity Experiments with the Climate Model 265(15) January Case 266(7) July Case 273(7) Sensitivity to αi 280(1) Summary and Conclusions 280(5) References 284(1) Solving Problems with GCMs: General Circulation Models and Their Role in the Climate Modeling Hierarchy Michael Ghil Andrew W. Robertson Introduction: The Modeling Hierarchy 285(7) Atmospheric Modeling 286(3) Ocean and Coupled Modeling 289(1) Dynamical Systems Theory 290(2) Intraseasonal Oscillations: Their Theory and Simulation 292(7) Extratropical Oscillations: Observations and Theory 292(4) GCM Simulations and Their Validation 296(3) El Nino-Southern Oscillation, from the Devils Staircase to Prediction 299(12) ENSOs Regularity and Irregularity 299(2) The Devils Staircase across the Modeling Hierarchy 301(7) Regularity and Prediction 308(3) Interdecadal Oscillations in the Oceans Thermohaline Circulation 311(6) Theory and Simple Models 311(4) Bifurcation Diagrams for GCMs 315(2) Perspectives 317(10) References 319(8) Prospects for Development of Medium-Range and Extended-Range Forecasts Anthony Hollingsworth Introduction 327(1) Methods for the Development of Forecast Models 328(4) Development of the ECMWF Forecasting System 332(4) Progress in Forecasting 336(1) ECMWFs Earth System Model and Assimilation System 337(2) Opportunities for Development of Medium-Range and Extended-Range Weather Forecasts 339(11) Opportunities from Developments in Operational Satellites 340(2) Opportunities from Developments in Research Satellites 342(1) Opportunities from Developments in Data Assimilation 343(1) Opportunities from Developments in Forecast Models 344(1) Opportunities from Developments in Physical Parameterizations 344(1) Opportunities from Developments in Numerical Methods 345(1) Opportunities from Increases in Vertical and Horizontal Resolution 345(2) Opportunities from Development of Diagnostics 347(1) Opportunities from Developments in the Ensemble Prediction System 347(1) Opportunities from Development of Seasonal Forecasting 348(1) Opportunities from Developments in Reanalysis 349(1) A Foreword Look 350(5) References 351(4) Climate Services at the Japan Meteorological Agency Using a General Circulation Model: Dynamical One-Month Prediction Tatsushi Tokioka Introduction 355(1) Procedure of One-Month Prediction 356(2) Outline of the Model 356(1) Ensemble Prediction of Time-Averaged Fields 357(1) Probabilistic Prediction 358(1) Correction of Systematic Model Bias 358(1) Skill of One-Month Prediction 358(10) Example of Ensemble Prediction 358(2) Meaning of Time Integration of the Latter Half Period of a Month 360(1) Effect of Ensemble Averaging 361(1) Ensemble Size 362(1) ACC of Geopotential Height at 500 hPa 363(2) Relationship between ACC and Spread 365(2) Skill of Forecast 367(1) Future Improvements 368(5) References 370(3) Numerical Methods: The Arakawa Approach, Horizontal Grid, Global, and Limited-Area Modeling Fedor Mesinger Introduction: The Arakawa Approach in Numerical Methods 373(3) The Horizontal Grid: Retrospective 376(4) Hexagonal Grids 380(5) Randall Z Grid and C-Grid-Like B/E Grid Gravity Wave Schemes 385(4) The Eta Model: An Arakawa Approach Story 389(7) Global Modeling: The Pole Problem 396(1) The Eta Model: The Next 24 Months and the Limited-Area Modeling Concept 397(4) The Eta Coordinate and the Resolution versus Domain Size Trade-Off 401(5) Hurricane Tracks 406(2) Progress Achieved 408(2) Example of a Successful Forecast 410(2) Conclusion 412(9) References 414(7) Formulation of Oceanic General Circulation Models James C. McWilliams Introduction 421(2) Dynamics 423(4) Forcing 427(2) Initial Conditions and Equilibrium 429(1) Numerical Methods 430(3) Domain Geometry 433(1) Parameterizations 434(9) Lateral Momentum Transport 436(1) Isopycnal Material Transport 437(2) Surface Boundary Layer and Surface Gravity Waves 439(1) Interior Vertical or Diapycnal Mixing 440(1) Bottom Boundary Layer and Gravity Currents 441(1) Topographic Effects 442(1) Rivers and Marginal Seas 443(1) Spatial Resolution 443(2) Role of the Ocean in Climate System Models 445(6) Conclusion 451(6) References 452(5) Climate and Variability in the First Quasi-Equilibrium Tropical Circulation Model Ning Zeng J. David Neelin Chia Chou Johnny Wei-Bing Lin Hui Su Introduction 457(2) Model Description/Implementation 459(9) Dynamics and Convection 459(3) Cloud Prediction and Radiation 462(2) Land-Surface Model 464(3) Implementation 467(1) Model Results 468(16) Climatology 468(6) How Much Do Departures from Quasi-Equilibrium Affect Climatology? 474(2) Intraseasonal Oscillation 476(3) Interannual Variability 479(5) Conclusion 484(5) References 486(3) Climate Simulation Studies at CCSR Akimasa Sumi Introduction 489(2) Climate Simulations at CCSR 491(8) The CCSR Atmospheric General Circulation Model 491(1) The CCSR Ocean General Circulation Model 492(1) An AMIP Run 492(3) Transient Experiments to Explore the Effects of Increasing CO2 495(2) Simulation of the QBO 497(2) Use of Remote Sensing Data with Climate Models 499(1) Climate System Dynamics 499(5) How Should We Evaluate Our Simulations? 504(1) Conclusion 505(4) References 507(2) Global Atmospheric Modeling Using a Geodesic Grid with an Isentropic Vertical Coordinate David A. Randall Ross Heikes Todd Ringer Introduction 509(3) The Z Grid 512(4) A Geodesic Shallow-Water Model Using the Z Grid 516(2) Semi-Implicit Time Differencing 518(1) Flux-Corrected Transport 518(1) A Full-Physics Version of the Model Using the Generalized Sigma Coordinate 519(1) A Three-Dimensional Version of the Model with an Isentropic Vertical Coordinate 519(2) Further Analysis of the Isentropic Coordinate 521(14) Conclusions 535(4) References 536(3) A Coupled GCM Pilgrimage: From Climate Catastrophe to ENSO Simulations Carlos R. Mechoso Jin-Yi Yu Akio Arakawa Introduction 539(1) First Journey: From Catastrophe to Cold Bias and Weak Interannual Variability at the Equator 540(6) Model Description 540(3) The Climate Catastrophe 543(1) Overcoming the Catastrophe 543(2) Interannual Variability 545(1) Second Journey: Model Analyses and Revisions 546(10) Systematic Errors of CGCMS 546(6) Factors Contributing to Systematic Errors in the CGCM 552(4) Third Journey: Realistic Simulation at the Equator 556(5) Model Improvements 556(1) Simulated Interannual Variability after Revisions 557(4) Lessons Learned 561(6) Present and Future Directions 567(10) The Present 567(1) Code Improvement 568(2) The Next-Generation UCLA AGCM 570(1) Appendix A---Observational Data 571(1) Appendix B---Detour: Coupled GCM Forecasts of the 1997-1998 El Nino Event 571(2) References 573(4) Representing the Stratocumulus-Topped Boundary Layer in GCMs Chin-Hoh Moeng Bjorn Stevens Introduction 577(1) Current Understanding of the STBL Regime 578(5) Physical Processes 579(1) Typical Profiles of the Thermodynamical Fields 580(3) Existing STBL Turbulence and Cloud Schemes in GCMs and Their Problems 583(8) Existing Marine Stratocumulus PBL Schemes 583(3) Subtropical Stratocumulus in the CCM3 586(5) Current Effort in Further Understanding and Developing Parameterizations of the STBL 591(11) LES Results 594(3) Relating Hf to Radiation Flux 597(2) Closure Assumptions 599(3) Conclusion 602(3) References 602(3) Cloud System Modeling Steven K. Krueger Introduction 605(6) What Is a Cloud Resolving Model? 605(2) The University of Utah Cloud Resolving Model 607(1) What Is a CRM Good For? 608(2) Cloud Process Studies with the UCLA/UU CRM 610(1) Interactions between Radiation and Convection in Tropical Cloud Clusters 611(4) Thin Midlevel Stratiform (Altocumulus) Clouds 615(7) Stratocumulus-to-Trade Cumulus Transition in the Subtropical Marine Boundary Layer 622(9) Decoupling 629(1) Summary 630(1) Enhancement of Surface Fluxes by Tropical Convection 631(2) Plumes Generated by Arctic Leads 633(4) Conclusions 637(4) References 637(4) Using Single-Column Models to Improve Cloud-Radiation Parameterizations Richard C. J. Somerville Introduction 641(2) Single-Column Modeling 643(3) Parameterization Validation and Single-Column Diagnostic Models 646(4) Diagnostic Models 646(1) Model Structure 647(1) Solar Radiation 647(1) Terrestrial Radiation 648(1) Horizontal Advection 648(1) Convection 649(1) Large-Scale Condensation 649(1) Cloud Prediction 649(1) Model Experiments 650(6) Long-Term Experiments in the TOGA-COARE Region 650(2) Short-Term Experiments in the IFA Region 652(4) Conclusion 656(3) References 656(3) Entropy, the Lorenz Energy Cycle, and Climate Donald R. Johnson Introduction 659(2) Global Thermodynamics and Monsoonal Circulations 661(5) A Historical Perspective Concerning Entropy and Caratheodorys Statement of the Second Law 666(4) The Classical Concept of the Carnot Cycle and the Driftless Climate State 670(9) The Climate State and the Reversible Component of Total Energy 679(4) The Classical Concept of Efficiency in Relation to ⟨g(E)⟩ and ⟨g(ΔEα)⟩ 683(2) Sources of Entropy in the Modeled Climate State 685(3) The Entropy Balance 688(3) Energy Balance and Aphysical Sources of Entropy 691(3) The Expected Magnitudes of ⟨Δg(ΔEα)⟩ 694(4) The March of the Seasons and Reversible Isentropic Processes 698(9) Conclusions and Additional Considerations 707(14) References 716(5) Future Development of General Circulation Models Akio Arakawa Introduction: The Beginning of the ``Great Challenge Third Phase 721(6) Choice of Dynamics Equations 727(2) Discretization Problems: Choice of Vertical Grid, Vertical Coordinate, and Horizontal Grid 729(11) Introduction 729(1) Choice of Vertical Grid in the σ Coordinate 730(4) Isentropic Vertical Coordinates 734(3) Hybrid θ-σ Coordinates 737(2) Upper and Lower Boundary Conditions 739(1) Choice of Horizontal Grid 739(1) Discretization Problems: Advection Schemes 740(9) Introduction 740(2) Computational Mode in Discrete Advection Equations 742(1) Semi-Lagrangian Schemes 743(3) An Inherent Difficulty in Discretizing the Advection Equation 746(3) Parameterizations of PBL and Stratiform Cloud Processes and Representation of the Effects of Surface Irregularity 749(7) Various Approaches in PBL Parameterization 749(3) Implementation of PBL Processes in a Vertically Discrete Model 752(2) Unsolved Problems in Modeling Stratiform Clouds 754(1) Processes Associated with Irregular Surface 755(1) Cumulus Parameterization 756(14) Introduction 756(1) The Objectives of Cumulus Parameterization 757(11) Future Directions 768(2) Conclusions 770(11) References 773(8) Index 781