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E-grāmata: Global Climatology and Ecodynamics: Anthropogenic Changes to Planet Earth

Arthur Philip Cracknell, Vladimir F. Krapivin

Formāts: PDF+DRM
Sērija : Environmental Sciences
Izdošanas datums: 04-Nov-2008
Izdevniecība: Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg GmbH & Co. K
Valoda: eng
ISBN-13: 9783540782094

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Formāts: PDF+DRM
Sērija : Environmental Sciences
Izdošanas datums: 04-Nov-2008
Izdevniecība: Springer-Verlag Berlin and Heidelberg GmbH & Co. K
Valoda: eng
ISBN-13: 9783540782094

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The exclusive role of natural ecosystems is a key factor in the maintenance of the biospheric equilibrium. The current global crisis is largely caused by their dramatic decline by 43% in the past hundred years. Ignoring the immutable laws and limitations which determine the existence of all living things in the biosphere could lead humanity to an ecological catastrophe. This book presents the ecological, demographic, economic and socio-psychological manifestations of the global crisis and outlines the immutable laws and limitations which determine the existence of all living things in the biosphere.

The authors are eminently qualified to write about the problems associated with the global crisis and consider the causes behind humanity's conflict with its environment. V. Danilov-Danilian, Associate of the Russian Academy of Sciences and Russia's former Minister of the Environment, and K. Losev, professor at Moscow State university, are leading Russian ecologists and I. Reyf is a journalist who specializes in ecology and global development. Dr. Danilov-Danilian works on the economics of nature management, economic and mathematical model building, sustainable development theory and ecology. Dr Losev is the chief researcher and head of the division of the VINITI. All the authors have published numerous papers, articles and books on such subjects as glaciology, hydrology, environment studies, global change and sustainable development.

Preface

xiii

List of figures

List of tables

xxi

List of abbreviations and acronyms

xxiii

List of contributors

xxvii

About the authors

xxxi

The seminal nature of the work of Kirill Kondratyev

(16)

Introduction

(1)

Early radiation studies

(2)

Balloon and aircraft observations in the context of climate studies

(3)

Satellite remote sensing

(1)

Limnological studies

(1)

Global change studies

(1)

International collaboration

(1)

The Research Center of Ecological Safety and the NIERSC

(1)

Conclusion

(1)

References and list of selected publications

(4)

K. Ya Kondratyev

Kirill Kondratyev and the IPCC: His opposition to the Kyoto Protocol

(20)

Introduction

(1)

Kondratyev's life from circa 1990 to 2006 and his involvement with climate skeptics

(19)

The last 15-20 years of Kondratyev's life

(3)

The journal Energy and Environment

(1)

Kondratyev and the IPCC

(4)

Kondratyev and the Kyoto Protocol, including Russia's signing of the Protocol

(7)

Conclusion

(2)

References

(3)

The Earth radiation budget, 20 years later (1985-2005)

(26)

Introduction

(2)

The ScaRaB project and instrument

(2)

Earth radiation budget observations for climate research

(6)

Trends

(1)

Mathematical modeling for spatio-temporal variability of outgoing radiation fields

(1)

Problem of climate signal detection

(1)

Methods of signal detection

(1)

Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA)

(1)

Mutual evolution of the outgoing longwave and shortwave radiation anomalies for the last two decades

(2)

Principal Oscillation Pattern (POP) analysis

(1)

POP as a predictive tool

(2)

The Earth radiation budget and global warming

(4)

Conclusions

(1)

References

(5)

Aerosol and atmospheric electricity

(14)

Introduction

(1)

The relation of aerosol extinction of optical radiation with the electric field under haze conditions

(1)

Results of measurements

(3)

Correlation between aerosol extinction of radiation and the atmospheric electric field under smoke conditions

(1)

Discussion of results

(5)

Conclusions

(1)

References

(2)

Remote sensing of terrestrial chlorophyll content

(30)

Introduction

(2)

Spectral properties of vegetation

(3)

Visible region

(2)

Near-infrared region

(1)

Middle-infrared region

(1)

The red edge

(1)

Imaging spectrometry

(2)

Methods used to estimate chlorophyll content using remotely sensed data

(11)

Colorimetric method

(3)

Red-edge position

(8)

Applications of remotely sensed chlorophyll content data

(4)

Vegetation productivity

(1)

Vegetation stress

(1)

Land cover mapping

(2)

Conclusion

(1)

References

(8)

Regarding greenhouse explosion

107

(26)

Introduction

107

(3)

Radiation balance at the surface within the framework of a model of a gray atmosphere; Several stationary thermal states of the hypothetical Earth

110

(8)

Molecular transmittance functions of the Earth's atmosphere in the region from 0 cm-1 to 4,000 cm-1 at the stationary states of surface temperatures: 288.2 K, 365 K

118

(2)

Regarding the radiation balance of the Earth at the top of the atmosphere

120

(4)

Discussion regarding greenhouse explosion on the Earth

124

(6)

References

130

(3)

Model-based method for the assessment of global change in the nature-society system

133

(52)

Introduction

133

(1)

A new type of global model

134

(4)

Mathematical model of nature-society system (NSS) dynamics

138

(36)

General description of the global model

138

(4)

Model of the global biogeochemical cycle of carbon dioxide

142

(17)

Global model units for other biogeochemical cycles

159

(10)

The oceans' bioproductivity unit

169

(1)

Units of biogeocenotic, hydrologic, and climatic processes

170

(3)

Demographic unit

173

(1)

Global simulation experiments

174

(3)

Concluding remarks

177

(1)

References

178

(7)

Self-learning statistical short-term climate predictive model for Europe

185

(26)

Introduction

185

(2)

Atmospheric circulation in the Atlantic-European system

187

(1)

Forecasting methodology

188

(2)

Fuzzy algorithm

190

(1)

Low-oscillation dynamic and predictability of precipitation rate

191

(4)

Fuzzy classification of regime circulation and rain rate spatial distribution over Europe

195

(3)

Model description

198

(2)

Forecast skill evaluation

200

(6)

Discussion

206

(1)

References

206

(5)

Theory of series of exponents and their application for analysis of radiation processes

211

(30)

Introduction

211

(1)

Exact expansions of the transmission function in a series of exponents

212

(5)

The series of exponents and the radiative transfer equation

217

(11)

Integration of the radiative transfer equation over the frequency spectrum (kinetic equation)

217

(3)

Radiation fluxes in the aerosol-molecular medium

220

(4)

Molecular atmosphere

224

(4)

The series of exponents as a means for calculation simplifications

228

(9)

Equivalent line and overlapping bands

228

(4)

Small pressures

232

(2)

Inhomogeneous media

234

(3)

One-parametric approximation formulas

237

(1)

Conclusion

237

(1)

References

238

(3)

Forecast of biosphere dynamics using small-scale models

241

(60)

Introduction

241

(4)

The worst case scenario principle and minimal models of the biosphere

245

(13)

Initial minimal model of the biosphere

245

(5)

Results of modeling

250

(3)

Integrated minimal model of long-term carbon dioxide dynamics in the biosphere

253

(3)

Model verification results

256

(1)

Forecasts of the future dynamics of the biosphere

256

(2)

The carbon cycle; the study of chlorophyll global dynamics and net primary production (NPP) by satellite methods

258

(17)

Introduction

258

(1)

Trends in the global photosynthetic activity of land vegetation

259

(5)

Long-term dynamics of chlorophyll concentration in the ocean surface layer (from space data)

264

(3)

Seasonal variations in oceanic phytopigment values in the northern and southern hemispheres averaged by three climatic zones (northern hemisphere starting from 30°N, southern hemisphere starting from 30°S, and the tropical zone)

267

(1)

Minimal model of carbon dioxide seasonal dynamics

268

(7)

Unicellular organism based experimental closed microecosystems as models of biosystems similar to the biosphere

275

(17)

A microecosystem (MES) mathematical model

276

(11)

Experimental technique

287

(2)

Experimental results

289

(3)

Discussion and conclusion

292

(4)

References

296

(5)

Air temperature changes at White Sea shores and islands in the 19th and 20th centuries

301

(32)

Introduction

301

(2)

Materials and methods

303

(3)

The regime of air temperature

306

(10)

Long-term changes of air temperature

316

(14)

Conclusions

330

(1)

References

330

(3)

Climatic characteristics of temperature, humidity, and wind velocity in the atmospheric boundary layer over western Siberia

333

(30)

Introduction

333

(1)

Description of initial data and some methodological aspects of their statistical processing

334

(5)

Some special features of the vertical structure of average temperature, humidity, and wind velocity fields in the atmospheric boundary layer

339

(8)

Basic features of the vertical distribution of average temperature and humidity

339

(4)

Special features of the vertical distributions of average zonal and meridional wind

343

(4)

Special features of the vertical distributions of temperature, humidity, and wind velocity variability above different parts of western Siberia

347

(6)

Some special features of the vertical distributions of the variability of air temperature and humidity

348

(1)

Special features of the vertical distributions of zonal and meridional wind variability

349

(4)

Basic laws and special features of the vertical correlation relations for temperature, humidity, and wind velocity

353

(8)

Interlevel correlation of temperature and humidity

353

(5)

Interlevel correlation relations for wind velocity

358

(3)

References

361

(2)

Ecological safety and the risks of hydrocarbon transportation in the Baltic Sea

363

(16)

Introduction

363

(1)

Objects of the study and methods of generalization

364

(1)

Ecological risk

365

(2)

North European Gas Pipeline and ecological safety of the Baltic Sea

367

(5)

Monitoring system for hydrocarbon transportation

372

(1)

Ecological safety of oil transportation in the Baltic Sea

373

(4)

Conclusion

377

(1)

References

377

(2)

New directions in biophysical ecology

379

(18)

Introduction

379

(3)

Experiment in ecology

381

(1)

Complexity of ecosystems

381

(1)

Non-trophic regulation of ecosystems

381

(1)

Hierarchy of ecosystems

382

(1)

Fundamentals of water ecosystem similarity theory

382

(4)

Growth acceleration; a new integral index of the cumulative effect of all the regulators in a monoculture

386

(2)

Bioassay system as a new method of description of the state and dynamics of ecosystems, and the alternative of Maximum Permissible Concentration (MPC)

388

(5)

Arguments supporting the statement about the degree of dependency of population-selective parameters during selection modeling

393

(1)

Experimental modeling of the phenomenological laws of migration of aquatic organisms

394

(1)

Conclusion; the future monitoring of aquatic ecosystems

394

(1)

References

395

(2)

The Earth as an open ecosystem

397

(30)

Introduction

397

(1)

Evolution processes on the Earth

398

(3)

Effect of greenhouse gases and aerosols on climate

401

(3)

The role of water in the variability and evolution of the environment

404

(5)

Sun-Earth interaction and global catastrophes

409

(12)

Tectonic processes

409

(5)

Earthquakes

414

(2)

Explosive volcanic eruptions

416

(5)

Determined chaos of the temporal-spatial structure of geophysical fields

421

(1)

Conclusion

422

(1)

References

423

(4)

Problems of the sustainable development of ecological-economic systems

427

(18)

Introduction

427

(1)

The notion of sustainable development

428

(1)

The hierarchical approach to management

428

(2)

Management methods

430

(2)

Mathematical model of a management system of water quality

432

(3)

Formalization of the methods of hierarchical management

435

(8)

Compulsion

435

(5)

Incentives

440

(2)

Conviction

442

(1)

Conclusions

443

(1)

References

444

(1)

Sustainable development problems in the context of global ecoinformatics

445

(34)

Introduction

445

(3)

Global ecoinformatics as the science of the nature/society system

448

(15)

A new approach to the study of the nature/society system

448

(1)

Indicator of the nature/society system state

449

(2)

Biocomplexity indicator determination

451

(1)

Nature/society system biocomplexity

452

(1)

Global model of nature/society system biocomplexity

453

(5)

Simulation results and discussion

458

(4)

Conclusion

462

(1)

Basic model of sustainable development

463

(4)

Principle determination

463

(1)

Common view of global model

464

(1)

Sustainability criterion

465

(2)

Biospheric evolution, risks, and natural disasters

467

(6)

Concluding remarks

473

(2)

References

475

(4)

``Sustainability---no hope!'' or ``Sustainability---no hope?''

479

(36)

Introduction, defining sustainability

479

(5)

Global warming

484

(1)

Climate change

485

(3)

The IPCC

488

(2)

The consequences of climate change

488

(1)

The consequences of climate change based on IPCC predictions

488

(2)

Paleoclimatic information; catastrophic changes

490

(2)

The cost of global warming

492

(2)

``Our'' way of life

494

(2)

The end of fossil fuels and other minerals

496

(3)

Can the party continue?

499

(6)

Population

505

(1)

The collapse of former civilizations

506

(2)

Easter Island

508

(1)

Current environmental threats

509

(2)

References

511

(4)

Index

515

Arthur J. Cracknell: In the mid 1970s Prof. Cracknell started to become involved in remote sensing (Earth Observation) work, a field that was then in its infancy. The idea that led him to start remote sensing work in the former Physics Department at Dundee University was to provide a link between the generators of satellite data and the environmental scientists and engineers who would like to use the data. This work on the processing and interpretation of remote sensing data developed by Prof. Cracknell expanded enormously over a period of about 25 years and led to the publication by him and his co-authors of over 200 research papers and about 20 or so books on the subject. The books range from an introductory textbook on the subject, which is about to go into its second edition, to monographs and edited conference and summer school proceedings.

Prof. Vladimir F. Krapivin published numerous papers and a number of books relevant to environmental and global changes studies. Among the latter are:"Ecoinformatics Methods" (with I.I. Potapov), 2002, Moscow (in Russian)."Modelling the Global Carbon Cycle" (with K.Ya. Kondratyev), 2004, Moscow (in Russian)."Global Change of the Environment: Ecoinformatics" (with K.Ya. Kondratyev), St. Petersburg (in Russian)."Perspectives of Civilization Development: Multidimensional Analysis" (with K.Ya. Kondratyev and V.P. Savinikh), 2003, Moscow (in Russian)."Global Environmental Change: Modelling and Monitoring" (with K.Ya. Kondratyev and G.W. Phillips), Springer, 2002, Germany;"Global Carbon Cycle and Climate Change" (with K.Ya. Kondratyev and C.A. Varotsos), Springer/Praxis, 2003, U.K.;"Global Ecodynamics: a Multidimensional Analysis" (with K.Ya. Kondratyev, V.P. Savinikh, and C.A. Varotsos), 2004, Springer/Praxis, U.K."Natural Disasters as Interactive Components of Global Ecodynamics" (with K.Ya. Kondratyev and C.A. Varotsos);"Atmospheric Aerosol Properties: Formation, Processes and Impacts" (with K.Ya. Kondratyev, L.S. Ivlev and C.A. Varotsos).

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E-grāmata: Global Climatology and Ecodynamics: Anthropogenic Changes to Planet Earth

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