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E-grāmata: Handbook of Sports and Lottery Markets

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Editorial board member (University of California-San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA), Editorial board member , Editorial board member , Edited by (University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada), Editorial board member , Editorial board member (University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA), Edited by (University of Wisconsin, Madison, USA), Editorial board member , Editorial board member (Harvard Business School, Cambridge, MA, )
  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Sērija : Handbooks in Finance
  • Izdošanas datums: 11-Aug-2011
  • Izdevniecība: North-Holland
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780080559957
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Handbook of Sports and Lottery MarketsPalielināt
  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Sērija : Handbooks in Finance
  • Izdošanas datums: 11-Aug-2011
  • Izdevniecība: North-Holland
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780080559957
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Its basic empirical research and investigation of pure theories of investment in the sports and lotto markets make this volume a winner. With new overviews of scholarship on the industry side of racetrack and other betting markets to betting exchanges and market efficiencies, contributors consider a variety of sports in countries around the world. The result is not only superior information about market forecasting, but macro- and micro-analyses that are relevant to other markets as well.

* Major focus on the variety of market efficiencies
* Significant coverage of sports from racing to jai alai.
* New studies of betting exchanges and internet wagering markets

Recenzijas

"This timely and valuable volume showcases the frontier research in prediction markets by the very best researchers in the field. Issues of information aggregation and how the institutional backdrop influence such aggregation are age-old questions in Economics and Finance. The papers in this volume survey the current frontier, show how betting markets allow questions to be posed more sharply, and so yield more robust conclusions than is possible in more complex financial markets. The insights gained have many potentially fruitful applications in the design of institutions that promote information efficiency and for public policy more generally." --Hyun Song Shin, Princeton University

"Hausch and Ziemba have produced a superb volume replete with papers from leading scholars in the economics of sports wagering and lotteries." --Raymond Sauer, Clemson University

The editors of this book have assembled a set of world-renowned scholars to produce an accessible and authoritative review of the behavior of sports betting and lottery markets. The volume is essential reading for students and practitioners involved in betting markets.” --Rob Simmons, Lancaster University

Papildus informācija

Presents basic research and pure theory about betting markets
List of Contributors
xvi
Preface xix
Introduction to the Series xxiii
Part I Industry Studies
1(24)
Pari-Mutuel Horse Race Wagering---Competition from Within and Outside the Industry
3(14)
Richard Thalheimer
Mukhtar M. Ali
Introduction
4(1)
Competition from Casino Gaming
5(2)
Competition from State Lotteries
7(1)
Competition from Professional Sports
8(1)
Competition from Live Racing
8(3)
Competition from Simulcast Wagering
11(2)
Summary and Conclusions
13(4)
References
14(3)
Modeling Money Bet on Horse Races in Hong Kong
17(8)
John Bacon-Shone
Alan Woods
Introduction
18(1)
Variables examined
18(1)
Outcome Variables
18(1)
Independent Variables
19(1)
Results and Discussion
19(2)
Conclusion
21(4)
References
22(1)
Appendix: 31 Independent Variables Examined (Excluding Quadratic Terms)
23(2)
Part II Utility, Probability, and Pace Estimation
25(56)
Empirical Evidence on the Preferences of Racetrack Bettors
27(24)
Bruno Jullien
Bernard Salanie
Introduction
28(2)
Some Stylized Facts
30(3)
Expected Utility
33(3)
Distortions of Probabilities
36(3)
Reference Points and Asymmetric Probability Weights
39(3)
Heterogeneous Preferences
42(3)
Exotic Bets
45(1)
Concluding Remarks
46(5)
References
47(4)
Approximating the Ordering Probabilities of Multi-Entry Competitions by a Simple Method
51(16)
Victor S.Y. Lo
John Bacon-Shone
Introduction
52(1)
Theoretical Results of the Limiting Cases
53(3)
A Simple Approximation
56(3)
Empirical Analysis for the Approximated Henery Model
56(1)
Empirical Analysis for the Stern Model
57(2)
Conclusion
59(8)
References
60(1)
Appendix: Proof of Theorem 1
61(6)
Modeling Distance Preference and Pace Character in Thoroughbred Turf Racing
67(14)
David Edelman
Background
68(1)
Case Study 1: Sha Tin (Hong Kong, SAR, PRC)
69(2)
Case Study 2: Randwick (Sydney, Australia)
71(6)
Qualitative Questions
77(3)
Do Distance Specialists Exist?
77(1)
Pace, Class, and Time: The Central Paradox of Racing
78(1)
Jockeys: Distance or Pace Preference?
79(1)
Discussion
80(1)
References
80(1)
Part III Favorite-Longshot Bias in the Win Market
81(100)
The Favorite-Longshot Bias: An Overview of the Main Explanations
83(20)
Marco Ottaviani
Peter Norman Sorensen
Introduction
84(3)
Notation
87(1)
Misestimation of Probabilities
87(2)
Market Power by Informed Bettors
89(1)
Preference for Risk
90(3)
Heterogeneous Beliefs
93(2)
Market Power by Uninformed Bookmaker
95(1)
Limited Arbitrage
96(1)
Simultaneous Betting by Insiders
97(2)
Timing of Bets
99(4)
Early Betting
99(1)
Late Betting
99(1)
References
100(3)
Examining Explanations of a Market Anomaly: Preferences or Perceptions?
103(34)
Erik Snowberg
Justin Wolfers
Introduction
104(4)
Preferences---Expected Utility Models with Linear Probabilities
108(3)
Perceptions---The Weighting of True Probabilities
111(1)
Perceptions---Informational Effects
112(2)
Definition of Models and Implications for Combinatoric Bets
114(5)
Using Combinatoric Markets to Test the Models
119(10)
Testing Conditional Independence
123(2)
Relaxing Conditional Independence Further
125(4)
Conclusion
129(8)
References
130(4)
Appendix A: Pricing of Combinatoric Bets Using Conditional Independence
134(1)
Appendix B: Data
135(2)
Unifying the Favorite-Longshot Bias with Other Market Anomalies
137(24)
Russell S. Sobel
Matt E. Ryan
Introduction
138(1)
Biases Found in the Previous Literature
138(2)
What Causes the Favorite-Longshot Bias at the Racetrack?
140(10)
The Casual Bettor
143(1)
The Serious or Regular Bettor
144(4)
The Arbitrageur
148(2)
Is it Risk or Information?
150(6)
Can the Model Explain the Biases in Other Markets?
156(1)
Conclusion
157(4)
References
158(3)
The Favorite-Longshot Bias in S&P 500 and FTSE 100 Index Futures Options: The Return to Bets and the Cost of Insurance
161(20)
Robert G. Tompkins
William T. Ziemba
Stewart D. Hodges
Introduction
162(4)
Methodology
166(4)
Results
170(8)
Results for Quarterly Options on Stock Index Futures
174(1)
Results for Monthly Options on Stock Index Futures
175(3)
Conclusion
178(3)
References
179(2)
Part IV Weak Market Efficiency
181(92)
Efficiency of Racing, Sports, and Lottery Betting Markets
183(40)
William T. Ziemba
Introduction
184(3)
Extent of Gambling in the U.S.
187(3)
Racetrack Betting Markets
190(19)
Introduction to Racetrack Betting
190(1)
Win Market
190(5)
Place and Show Markets
195(1)
Place and Show Probabilities
196(5)
Optimal Capital Growth
201(2)
Implementing the System and Empirical Results
203(3)
Does the System Still Provide Profits?
206(1)
Exotic Markets
207(1)
Cross-Track Betting
208(1)
The Football Betting Market
209(2)
The Basketball Betting Market
211(1)
Lotteries
212(11)
Introduction to Lotteries
212(2)
Inefficiencies with Unpopular Numbers
214(3)
Refernces
217(6)
Point Spread and Odds beting: Baseball, Baseball, and American Football
223(16)
Hal S. Stern
Introduction
224(1)
Efficiency of Odds betting Markets
224(3)
Horse Race Betting
224(2)
Baseball
226(1)
Efficiency of Point Spread Betting Markets
227(3)
American Football
227(3)
Basketball
230(1)
Relationship of Points Spread and Odds Betting
230(4)
Normal Distribution Result
231(2)
Applications of the Normal Approximation
233(1)
The Normal Model and Mid-Event Wagering
234(2)
Summary
236(3)
References
237(2)
Comparing Effciency of the Over/Under-Bets on NFL and NBA Games
239(14)
Joseph Gole
Maurry Tamarkin
Introduction
240(1)
The Sports Betting Market: Setting Point Spreads and Over/Unders
240(2)
NFL and NBA Betting Market Efficiency
242(7)
Conclusion
249(4)
References
251(2)
Arbitrage and Risk Arbitrage in Team Jai Alai
253(20)
Daniel Lane
William T. Ziemba
Introduction
254(4)
The Arbitrage
258(3)
Risk Arbitrages
261(8)
Final Remarks
269(4)
References
271(2)
Part V Semi-Strong Form Efficiency
273(82)
Semi-Strong Form Information Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets
275(32)
M. Sung
J.E.V. Johnson
Introduction
276(1)
Semi-Strong From Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: Single Variable Models
277(16)
Arbitrage Between Parallel Markets
278(7)
Professional Predictions
285(4)
Betting Volume
289(1)
Post Position
290(1)
Pedigree
291(1)
Distance Preference
292(1)
Single Variable Models: Overview
292(1)
Semi-Strong From Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: Multiple Variable Models
293(8)
Distribution-Based Methods
294(4)
Distribution-Free Methods
298(2)
Multiple Variable Models: Overview
300(1)
Semi-Strong Form Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: Conclusion
301(6)
References
302(5)
The Dosage Breeding Theory for Horse Racing Predictions
307(34)
Marshall Gramm
William T. Ziemba
Introduction
308(2)
The Racetrack as a Sequence of Markets
310(1)
The Dosage Index and Performance Measures
311(3)
Data Acquisition
314(1)
Application of Breeding Information and Preformance Meausures to Refine Estimated Win Prebabilities for the Kentucky Derby
314(6)
The kely Betting Model
320(2)
The Kentucky Derby, 1981-2007
322(5)
The Preakness Stakes, 1946-2006
327(2)
The Bolmont Stakes, 1946-2006
329(1)
Conclusion
330(11)
References
331(2)
Appendix A: Data Sources
333(1)
Public's Wagering
333(1)
Pedigrees
333(1)
Chef-De-Race Listings
333(1)
Experimental Free Handicap Listings
334(1)
Results of the Kentucky Derby and Major Races Prior to the Kentucky Derby
334(1)
Appendix B: Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and Belmont Winners, 1946-2006
334(7)
Efficiency in Horse Race Betting Markets: The Role of Professional Tipsters
341(14)
Bruno Deschamps
Oliver Gergaud
Introduction
342(1)
The Model
343(2)
Data
345(3)
Tips and Rewards Rules
345(1)
Public Information
346(1)
Measuring Forecalst Originality
347(1)
Results
348(3)
Results of Frequency Tests
348(1)
Originality and Accuracy
348(2)
Anti-Herding and Excess Orignality
350(1)
Conclusion
351(4)
References
351(2)
Appendix: Proof of Equation (5)
353(2)
Part VI Prediction Markets
355(64)
Index Betting for Sports and Stock Indices
357(28)
John Haigh
Leighton Vaughan Williams
Background
358(2)
How Index Betting Operates
360(2)
Setting spreads
362(3)
Spreads in Performances Indices
365(3)
Advantageous Bets
368(4)
Regulation, Taxation, and Biases in Spread Betting Markets
372(13)
References
374(3)
Appendix A
377(1)
Appendix B
378(2)
Appendix C
380(5)
Prediction Markets: From Politics to Business (and Back)
385(18)
Erik Snowberg
Justim Wolfers
Eric Zitzwitz
Overview
386(2)
The First Prediction Markets
388(3)
Markets in the Lab
391(2)
Current Uses of Prediction Markets: Business and Policy
393(4)
Future Directions: Decision Markets
397(1)
Potential Pitfalls
398(2)
Conclusion
400(3)
References
401(2)
Betting Exchanges: A Technological Revolution in Sports Betting
403(16)
Michael A. Smith
Leighton Vaughan Williams
Introduction
404(1)
The Operation of Betting Exchanges
404(5)
Empirical Models and Evidence Concerning Weak-Form Information Efficiency in Betting Exchanges
409(3)
New Evidence on the Degree of Bias in Betting Exchange Odds
412(4)
Conclusions
416(3)
References
417(2)
Part VII soccer
419(38)
Soccer Betting in Britain
421(26)
David Forrest
Introduction
422(1)
Development of Soccer Betting
423(3)
Transavtions Costs in the Fixed Odds Market
426(3)
Early Study of Market Efficiency
429(2)
Tipsters
431(1)
Fundamental Analysis as an Aid to Soccer Betting
432(5)
Technical Analysis
437(3)
Sentiment
440(3)
The Future of Research on Soccer Betting
443(4)
References
444(3)
Efficiency of Soccer Betting Odds---Evidence from a Pan-European Electronic Market
447(10)
Stephan Kossmeier
Simon Weinberger
Introduction
448(1)
The Soccer Betting Market
449(1)
Data Description
450(1)
Efficiency Tests
451(4)
Statistical Tests
451(3)
Economic Tests
454(1)
Conclusion
455(2)
References
456(1)
Part VIII Lotteries
457(68)
How to Design a Lottery
459(22)
Ian Walker
Introduction
460(4)
The Odds of Winning a (Pari-Mutuel) Lottery
464(1)
The Expected Value Calculation
465(2)
Higher Moments of the Prize Distribution
467(2)
Econometric Methodology, Data, and Estimates
469(5)
Game Design Simulations
474(2)
Conclusion
476(5)
References
477(2)
Appendix: The Expected Value Formala
479(2)
The Statistics of Lotteries
481(22)
John Haigh
Introduction
482(3)
Prize Structure and Winning Chances
485(6)
Tests of Randomness
491(5)
Gambler Choices
496(7)
References
502(1)
U.S.Lotto Markets
503(22)
Victor Matheson
Kent Grote
Introduction
504(5)
Differences Between American and European Lotteries
509(3)
Fungibility of Lottery Revenues
512(4)
Efficiency of Lottery Market---Part 1
516(3)
Efficiency of Lottery Market---Part 2
519(2)
Efficiency of Lottery Market---Part 3
521(1)
Conclusions
522(3)
References
523(2)
Subject Index 525(8)
Author Index 533
Kenneth Arrow is the Joan Kenney Professor of Economics and Professor of Operations Research, emeritus; a CHP/PCOR fellow; and an FSI senior fellow by courtesy. He is the joint winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics with John Hicks in 1972. To date, he is the youngest person to have received this award, at 51. In economics, he is a figure in post-World War II neo-classical economic theory. Many of his former graduate students have gone on to win the Nobel Memorial Prize themselves. His most significant works are his contributions to social choice theory, notably "Arrow's impossibility theorem", and his work on general equilibrium analysis. He has also provided foundational work in many other areas of economics, including endogenous growth theory and the economics of information. He has been co-editor of the Handbooks in Economics series since the mid-1980s.
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