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1 Introduction: The Project Abandonment Problem |
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1 | (8) |
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6 | (3) |
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2 What We Know About the Management of Very Large Projects |
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9 | (18) |
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2.1 Project Success Factors as Lists |
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10 | (3) |
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2.2 The Project Success Frameworks of Miller and Lessard and Morris and Hough |
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13 | (4) |
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2.2.1 Miller and Lessard (2000) |
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13 | (2) |
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2.2.2 Morris and Hough (1987) |
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15 | (2) |
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17 | (1) |
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2.4 The Extended Theoretical Framework |
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18 | (4) |
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2.5 What About Corruption? |
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22 | (1) |
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23 | (4) |
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3 Structure of the Investigation |
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27 | (22) |
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3.1 Overview of the Approach Taken in This Study |
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27 | (1) |
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3.2 Construction and Execution of the Survey |
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28 | (4) |
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3.3 Construction of the Sample of Projects |
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32 | (3) |
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3.4 Construction of the Case Studies |
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35 | (2) |
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Appendix: Full Questionnaire as It Was Administered |
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37 | (1) |
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37 | (1) |
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38 | (9) |
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47 | (2) |
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4 A Description of the 38 Matched Projects |
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49 | (44) |
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4.1 Lagos-Ibadan Express Road |
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49 | (1) |
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4.2 Lagos-Badagry Express Road |
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50 | (2) |
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4.3 Third Mainland Bridge |
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52 | (1) |
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53 | (1) |
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54 | (1) |
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4.6 Calabar Power Station |
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55 | (1) |
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4.7 Zungeru Hydropower Plant |
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56 | (1) |
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4.8 Delta State (Oghareki) Power Plant |
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57 | (1) |
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4.9 Shiroro Hydroelectric Power Station |
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58 | (1) |
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4.10 Omoku Power Plant Station |
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59 | (1) |
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4.11 Mambilla Hydroelectric Power |
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60 | (2) |
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4.12 Ajaokuta Steel Project |
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62 | (1) |
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63 | (1) |
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64 | (1) |
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65 | (1) |
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66 | (1) |
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66 | (2) |
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4.18 Nigerian Telecommunications Limited (NITEL) |
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68 | (1) |
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4.19 Godswill Akpabio International Stadium |
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68 | (2) |
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4.20 (Samuel) Ogbemudia Stadium |
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70 | (1) |
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4.21 Abuja International Airport |
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71 | (1) |
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72 | (1) |
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4.23 Yenagoa International Cargo Airport |
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73 | (1) |
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4.24 Jigawa Airport Project |
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74 | (1) |
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75 | (1) |
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76 | (1) |
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4.27 Victoria Garden City (VGC) Housing Estate |
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77 | (1) |
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4.28 Festac Town Federal Housing Estate |
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78 | (2) |
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80 | (1) |
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4.30 Abuja Mass Federal Housing Project |
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81 | (1) |
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4.31 Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library |
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82 | (1) |
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4.32 Abuja National Library |
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83 | (1) |
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4.33 Nigerian Youth Empowerment Scheme (N-Power) |
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84 | (1) |
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4.34 Nigeria Subsidy Reinvestment and Empowerment Programme (SURE-P) |
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85 | (1) |
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4.35 Lagos State Waste Management Authority (LAWMA) |
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85 | (2) |
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4.36 Cleaner Lagos Initiative (Visionscape) |
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87 | (1) |
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4.37 University College Teaching Hospital (UCH) Ibadan |
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88 | (2) |
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4.38 University of Abuja Teaching Hospital (UATH) |
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90 | (1) |
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91 | (2) |
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5 Insights from the Analysis of the Questionnaires |
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93 | (36) |
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5.1 Variable Distributions and Variable Capability to Detect Differences Across Projects |
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94 | (7) |
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5.1.1 Each Respondent Type Adds Unique Perspectives and Information |
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94 | (4) |
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5.1.2 The Variables Capture Robust Differences Between Abandoned and Completed Projects |
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98 | (3) |
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5.2 Condensing Variables into Aggregated Success Factors |
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101 | (3) |
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101 | (1) |
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5.2.2 Identifying the Factors |
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102 | (2) |
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5.3 Econometric Prediction of Project Completion |
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104 | (4) |
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5.4 Econometric Prediction of Cost and Schedule Overruns for Completed Projects |
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108 | (6) |
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5.4.1 Effect of Variables on Budget Overruns |
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108 | (3) |
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5.4.2 Effect of Variables on Schedule Overruns |
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111 | (3) |
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5.5 The Corrosive Effect of Corruption |
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114 | (1) |
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Appendix 1 Correlations Among Independent Variables Across All |
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114 | (3) |
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117 | (3) |
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Appendix 2 Factor Analysis |
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120 | (3) |
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Appendix 3 Specification of the Logistical Regression |
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123 | (1) |
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Appendix 4 The Logistical Completion Probability Regression by Respondent Group |
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123 | (2) |
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Appendix 5 Robustness Analysis: Cost Overrun Regressions by Respondent Group |
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125 | (1) |
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Appendix 6 Robustness Analysis: Schedule Overrun Regressions by Respondent Group |
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126 | (3) |
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129 | (8) |
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6.1 The National Library of Nigeria in Abuja: An Abandoned Project |
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129 | (4) |
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129 | (1) |
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6.1.2 Contract Signature and Execution |
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130 | (2) |
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132 | (1) |
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6.2 Olusegun Obasanjo Presidential Library: A Completed Project |
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133 | (2) |
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133 | (1) |
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6.2.2 Project Execution and Outcome |
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133 | (2) |
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6.2.3 The Difference Between the Two Projects: In the Words of Former President basanjo |
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135 | (1) |
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135 | (2) |
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137 | (14) |
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7.1 The Second Niger Bridge: A Stalled Project |
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137 | (7) |
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137 | (2) |
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7.1.2 Contract Disputes and Recontracting |
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139 | (1) |
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140 | (2) |
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7.1.4 Diagnosis of the Reasons for Failure, in the Words of (Former) President Jonathan |
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142 | (1) |
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143 | (1) |
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7.2 The Third Mainland Bridge: A Completed Project |
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144 | (4) |
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144 | (1) |
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7.2.2 Starting and Stalling |
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144 | (1) |
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7.2.3 Restarting the Project Under President Babangida |
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145 | (1) |
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7.2.4 Project Execution and Outcome |
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146 | (1) |
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147 | (1) |
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148 | (3) |
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151 | (10) |
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8.1 Egbin Power Station, Ikorodu Lagos State: A Completed Project |
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151 | (3) |
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8.1.1 Initiation and Completion |
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151 | (1) |
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8.1.2 Success Conditions and Challenges |
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152 | (1) |
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8.1.3 Privatization and Trouble |
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153 | (1) |
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8.2 The Calabar Odukpani Power Station: Completed but with Little Delivery |
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154 | (5) |
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154 | (1) |
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8.2.2 Project Complications and Delays |
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155 | (1) |
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8.2.3 Delivery of the Calabar Power Station in 2015 |
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156 | (1) |
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8.2.4 What Has Been Delivered? Lessons from the Project |
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157 | (2) |
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159 | (2) |
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9 Two Express Road Rehabilitation Projects |
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161 | (16) |
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9.1 The Lagos-Ibadan Express Road Rehabilitation: A Completed Project |
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161 | (6) |
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9.1.1 Original Construction of the Express Road |
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161 | (1) |
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9.1.2 A Reconstruction Project in a PPP Scheme |
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162 | (2) |
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9.1.3 Restructuring the Project as a Government-Owned Project |
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164 | (1) |
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165 | (2) |
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9.2 Lagos-Badagry Express Road Rehabilitation: A Stalled Project |
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167 | (6) |
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167 | (2) |
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9.2.2 Was the Problem the Fault of the Contractor? |
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169 | (1) |
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9.2.3 Dodgy Funding and Accounting |
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170 | (2) |
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9.2.4 Protest, Additional Funding and Patching Up |
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172 | (1) |
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173 | (1) |
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173 | (4) |
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177 | (10) |
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10.1 The Zungeru Dam/Hydropower Plant: A (Soon-to-Be) Completed Project |
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177 | (3) |
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177 | (2) |
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10.1.2 Enabling Factors of Completion |
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179 | (1) |
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10.2 The Delta State Oghareki Power Plant: An Abandoned Project |
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180 | (5) |
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180 | (1) |
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10.2.2 The Alleged Corruption |
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181 | (2) |
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183 | (2) |
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185 | (2) |
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11 The Ajaokuta Steel Project |
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187 | (12) |
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187 | (2) |
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11.2 Project Construction and Cessation by 1988 |
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189 | (2) |
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11.3 The PPP Revival of 2000-2007 |
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191 | (2) |
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11.4 The State of the Asset |
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193 | (1) |
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194 | (2) |
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196 | (3) |
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12 Insights and Recommendations |
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199 | (30) |
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12.1 Summary and Discussion of the Findings |
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199 | (7) |
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12.2 Developing Solutions: Inspiration from Other Countries |
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206 | (6) |
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212 | (11) |
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12.3.1 Recommendations Part 1: Short-Term Changes |
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213 | (2) |
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12.3.2 Recommendations Part 2: Longer-Term Structural Changes |
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215 | (8) |
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13 Conclusion: The Government Responsibility |
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223 | (6) |
Index |
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229 | |