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E-grāmata: Integrated Catastrophe Risk Modeling: Supporting Policy Processes

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Efficient and equitable policies for managing disaster risks and adapting to global environmental change are critically dependent on development of robust options supported by integrated modeling.

The book is based on research and state-of-the art models developed at IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and within its cooperation network. It addresses the methodological complexities of assessing disaster risks, which call for stochastic simulation, optimization methods and economic modeling. Furthermore, it describes policy frameworks for integrated disaster risk management, including stakeholder participation facilitated by user-interactive decision-support tools.

Applications and results are presented for a number of case studies at different problem scales and in different socio-economic contexts, and their implications for loss sharing policies and economic development are discussed. Among others, the book presents studies for insurance policies for earthquakes in the Tuscany region in Italy and flood risk in the Tisza river basin in Hungary. Further, it investigates the economic impact of natural disasters on development and possible financial coping strategies; and applications are shown for selected South Asian countries.

The book is addressed both to researchers and to organizations involved with catastrophe risk management and risk mitigation policies.

Recenzijas

From the book reviews:

This edited volume provides an introduction to the research and to several case studies that have emerged from that work. This volume would be of interest to researchers and practitioners in the practical modeling of natural hazards and catastrophic risks. (IEEE Control Systems Magazine, October, 2013)

Part I Integrated Modeling for Informing Risk Management Policies
1 Catastrophe Models for Informing Risk Management Policy: An Introduction
3(10)
Aniello Amendola
Tatiana Ermolieva
Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer
Reinhard Mechler
2 Modeling Risk and Uncertainty: Managing Flash Flood Risk in Vienna
13(16)
Keith L. Compton
Tatiana Ermolieva
Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer
Aniello Amendola
Rudolf Faber
Hans-Peter Nachtnebel
3 Modeling Catastrophe Risk for Designing Insurance Systems
29(24)
Tatiana Ermolieva
Yuri Ermoliev
4 Multiple Criteria Decision Making for Flood Risk Management
53(20)
Karin Hansson
Mats Danielson
Love Ekenberg
Joost Buurman
5 Dams and Catastrophe Risk: Discounting in Long Term Planning
73(22)
Tatiana Ermolieva
Yuri Ermoliev
Michael Obersteiner
Marek Makowski
Gunther Fischer
Part II Disasters and Growth: Modeling and Managing Country-Wide Catastrophe Risk
6 Modeling Aggregate Economic Risk: An Introduction
95(8)
Reinhard Mechler
7 Economic Growth Under Catastrophes
103(16)
Yuri Ermoliev
Tatiana Ermolieva
8 Modeling Macro Scale Disaster Risk: The CATSIM Model
119(26)
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
Reinhard Mechler
Georg Pflug
9 Managing Indirect Economic Consequences of Disaster Risk: The Case of Nepal
145(26)
Reinhard Mechler
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
Kazuyoshi Nakano
Part III Tisza River Basin in Hungary: Flood Risk Management, Multi-stakeholder Processes and Conflict Resolution
10 Catastrophe Models and Policy Processes: Managing Flood Risk in the Hungarian Tisza River Basin - An Introduction
171(10)
Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer
Love Ekenberg
Anna Vari
11 Social Indicators of Vulnerability to Floods: An Empirical Case Study in Two Upper Tisza Flood Basins
181(18)
Anna Vari
Zoltan Ferencz
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
12 Designing a Flood Management and Insurance System in Hungary: A Model-Based Stakeholder Approach
199(18)
Joanne Linnerooth-Bayer
Anna Vari
Lisa Brouwers
13 Consensus by Simulation: a Flood Model for Participatory Policy Making
217(14)
Lisa Brouwers
Mona Riabacke
14 A Risk-Based Decision Analytic Approach to Assessing Multi-stakeholder Policy Problems
231(14)
Mats Danielson
Love Ekenberg
15 Optimizing Public Private Risk Transfer Systems for Flood Risk Management in the Upper Tisza Region
245(18)
Yuri Ermoliev
Tatiana Ermolieva
Istvan Galambos
16 Flood Risk in a Changing Climate: A Multilevel Approach for Risk Management
263(18)
Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler
Georg Pflug
Nicola Lugeri
Index 281