Preface |
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xiii | |
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Chapter 1 Global Imbalances |
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1 | (30) |
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1.1 The Balance of Payments |
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3 | (3) |
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1.2 The Trade Balance and the Current Account |
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6 | (2) |
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1.3 The Trade Balance and the Current Account across Countries |
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8 | (2) |
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1.4 Imbalances in U.S. Trade with China |
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10 | (2) |
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1.5 The Current Account and the Net International Investment Position |
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12 | (1) |
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1.6 Valuation Changes and the Net International Investment Position |
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13 | (6) |
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1.6.1 Examples of Valuation Changes |
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14 | (1) |
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1.6.2 Valuation Changes in the United States |
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14 | (3) |
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1.6.3 A Hypothetical NIIP That Excludes Valuation Changes |
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17 | (2) |
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1.7 The NIIP-- Nil Paradox |
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19 | (4) |
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19 | (2) |
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1.7.2 Return Differentials |
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21 | (1) |
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1.7.3 The Flip Side of the NIIP--Nil Paradox |
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22 | (1) |
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23 | (1) |
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24 | (7) |
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PART I DETERMINANTS OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT |
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31 | (160) |
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Chapter 2 Current Account Sustainability |
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33 | (11) |
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2.1 Can a Country Run a Perpetual Trade Balance Deficit? |
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33 | (2) |
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2.2 Can a Country Run a Perpetual Current Account Deficit? |
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35 | (1) |
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2.3 Saving, Investment, and the Current Account |
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36 | (2) |
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2.3.1 The Current Account as the Gap between Saving and Investment |
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36 | (2) |
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2.3.2 The Current Account as the Gap between National Income and Domestic Absorption |
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38 | (1) |
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2.4 Appendix: Perpetual Trade Balance and Current Account Deficits in Infinite Horizon Economies |
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38 | (3) |
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41 | (1) |
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42 | (2) |
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Chapter 3 An Intertemporal Theory of the Current Account |
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44 | (24) |
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3.1 The Intertemporal Budget Constraint |
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45 | (2) |
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3.2 The Lifetime Utility Function |
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47 | (3) |
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3.3 The Optimal Intertemporal Allocation of Consumption |
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50 | (2) |
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3.4 The Interest Rate Parity Condition |
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52 | (1) |
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3.5 Equilibrium in the Small Open Economy |
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53 | (2) |
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3.6 The Trade Balance and the Current Account |
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55 | (1) |
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3.7 Adjustment to Temporary and Permanent Output Shocks |
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56 | (3) |
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3.7.1 Adjustment to Temporary Output Shocks |
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56 | (2) |
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3.7.2 Adjustment to Permanent Output Shocks |
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58 | (1) |
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3.8 Anticipated Income Shocks |
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59 | (2) |
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3.9 An Economy with Logarithmic Preferences |
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61 | (1) |
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62 | (1) |
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63 | (5) |
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Chapter 4 Terms of Trade, the World Interest Rate, Tariffs, and the Current Account |
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68 | (19) |
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4.1 Terms of Trade Shocks |
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69 | (1) |
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4.2 Terms of Trade Shocks and Imperfect Information |
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70 | (1) |
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4.3 Imperfect Information, the Price of Copper, and the Chilean Current Account |
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71 | (1) |
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4.4 World Interest Rate Shocks |
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72 | (3) |
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75 | (5) |
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4.5.1 A Temporary Increase in Import Tariffs |
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77 | (2) |
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4.5.2 A Permanent Increase in Import Tariffs |
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79 | (1) |
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4.5.3 An Anticipated Future Increase in Import Tariffs |
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80 | (1) |
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80 | (1) |
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81 | (6) |
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Chapter 5 Current Account Determination in a Production Economy |
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87 | (37) |
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5.1 The Investment Decision of Firms |
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87 | (6) |
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5.2 The Investment Schedule |
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93 | (3) |
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5.2.1 The Profit Function |
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93 | (3) |
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5.3 The Consumption-Saving Decision of Households |
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96 | (6) |
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5.3.1 Effect of a Temporary Increase in Productivity on Consumption |
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98 | (1) |
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5.3.2 Effect of an Anticipated Future Productivity Increase on Consumption |
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99 | (2) |
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5.3.3 Effect of an Increase in the Interest Rate on Consumption |
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101 | (1) |
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102 | (2) |
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5.5 The Current Account Schedule |
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104 | (2) |
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5.6 Equilibrium in the Production Economy |
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106 | (4) |
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5.6.1 Adjustment of the Current Account to Changes in the World Interest Rate |
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107 | (1) |
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5.6.2 Adjustment of the Current Account to a Temporary Increase in Productivity |
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108 | (1) |
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5.6.3 Adjustment of the Current Account to an Anticipated Future Productivity Increase |
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109 | (1) |
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5.7 Equilibrium in the Production Economy: An Algebraic Approach |
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110 | (5) |
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5.7.1 Adjustment to an Increase in the World Interest Rate |
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114 | (1) |
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5.7.2 Adjustment to a Temporary Increase in Productivity |
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114 | (1) |
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5.7.3 Adjustment to an Anticipated Future Increase in Productivity |
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115 | (1) |
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5.8 The Terms of Trade in the Production Economy |
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115 | (2) |
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5.9 An Application: Giant Oil Discoveries |
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117 | (2) |
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119 | (1) |
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120 | (4) |
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Chapter 6 Uncertainty and the Current Account |
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124 | (17) |
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124 | (1) |
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6.2 Ca uses of the Great Moderation |
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125 | (1) |
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6.3 The Great Moderation and the Emergence of Current Account Imbalances |
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126 | (1) |
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6.4 An Open Economy with Uncertainty |
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126 | (5) |
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6.5 Complete Asset Markets and the Current Account |
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131 | (4) |
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6.5.1 State Contingent Claims |
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131 | (1) |
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6.5.2 The Household's Problem |
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132 | (1) |
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6.5.3 Free Capital Mobility |
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133 | (1) |
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6.5.4 Equilibrium in the Complete Asset Market Economy |
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134 | (1) |
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135 | (1) |
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136 | (5) |
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Chapter 7 Large Open Economies |
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141 | (19) |
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7.1 A Two-Country Economy |
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141 | (2) |
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7.2 An Investment Surge in the United States |
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143 | (2) |
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7.3 Microfoundations of the Two-Country Model |
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145 | (3) |
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7.4 International Transmission of Country-Specific Shocks |
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148 | (1) |
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7.5 Country Size and the International Transmission Mechanism |
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149 | (2) |
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7.6 Explaining the U.S. Current Account Deficit: The Global Saving Glut Hypothesis |
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151 | (3) |
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7.6.1 Two Competing Hypotheses |
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151 | (2) |
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7.6.2 The Made in the U.S.A. Hypothesis Strikes Back |
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153 | (1) |
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154 | (1) |
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155 | (5) |
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Chapter 8 The Twin Deficits: Fiscal Deficits and the Current Account |
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160 | (31) |
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8.1 An Open Economy with a Government Sector |
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160 | (5) |
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161 | (1) |
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162 | (1) |
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163 | (2) |
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8.2 Ricardian Equivalence |
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165 | (3) |
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8.3 Government Spending and Twin Deficits |
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168 | (1) |
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8.4 Failure of Ricardian Equivalence: Tax Cuts and Twin Deficits |
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169 | (6) |
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8.4.1 Borrowing Constraints |
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170 | (2) |
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8.4.2 Intergenerational Effects |
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172 | (1) |
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8.4.3 Distortionary Taxation |
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172 | (3) |
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8.5 The Optimality of Twin Deficits |
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175 | (3) |
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8.6 Fiscal Policy in Economies with Imperfect Capital Mobility |
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178 | (3) |
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8.7 Fiscal Policy in a Large Open Economy |
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181 | (2) |
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183 | (1) |
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184 | (7) |
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PART II THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE |
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191 | (82) |
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Chapter 9 The Real Exchange Rate and Purchasing Power Parity |
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193 | (34) |
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193 | (5) |
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9.2 Purchasing Power Parity |
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198 | (3) |
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201 | (5) |
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9.3.1 Big Mac PPP Exchange Rates |
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201 | (1) |
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9.3.2 PPP Exchange Rates for Baskets of Goods |
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202 | (1) |
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9.3.3 PPP Exchange Rates and Standard of Living Comparisons |
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202 | (3) |
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9.3.4 Rich Countries Are More Expensive Than Poor Countries |
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205 | (1) |
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9.4 Relative Purchasing Power Parity |
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206 | (4) |
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9.4.1 Does Relative PPP Hold in the Long Run? |
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207 | (3) |
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9.4.2 Does Relative PPP Hold in the Short Run? |
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210 | (1) |
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9.5 How Wide Is the Border? |
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210 | (3) |
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9.6 Nontradable Goods and Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity |
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213 | (2) |
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9.7 Trade Barriers and Real Exchange Rates |
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215 | (1) |
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9.8 Home Bias and the Real Exchange Rate |
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216 | (1) |
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9.9 Price Indices and Standards of Living |
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217 | (4) |
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9.9.1 Microfoundations of the Price Level |
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218 | (2) |
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9.9.2 The Price Level, Income, and Welfare |
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220 | (1) |
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221 | (1) |
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222 | (5) |
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Chapter 10 Determinants of the Real Exchange Rate |
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227 | (46) |
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228 | (7) |
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228 | (3) |
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231 | (1) |
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10.1.3 Adjustment of the Relative Price of Nontradables to Interest Rate and Endowment Shocks |
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232 | (3) |
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10.2 From the Relative Price of Nontradables to the Real Exchange Rate |
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235 | (1) |
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10.3 The Terms of Trade and the Real Exchange Rate |
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236 | (2) |
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238 | (5) |
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10.4.1 A Sudden Stop through the Lens of the TNT Model |
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238 | (2) |
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10.4.2 The Argentine Sudden Stop of 2001 |
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240 | (2) |
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10.4.3 The Icelandic Sudden Stop of 2008 |
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242 | (1) |
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10.5 The TNT Model with Sectoral Production |
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243 | (16) |
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10.5.1 The Production Possibility Frontier |
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244 | (3) |
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10.5.2 The PPF and the Real Exchange Rate |
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247 | (2) |
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10.5.3 The Income Expansion Path |
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249 | (2) |
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10.5.4 Partial Equilibrium |
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251 | (4) |
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10.5.5 General Equilibrium |
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255 | (2) |
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10.5.6 Sudden Stops and Sectoral Reallocations |
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257 | (2) |
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10.6 Productivity Differentials and Real Exchange Rates: The Balassa-Samuelson Model |
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259 | (4) |
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263 | (1) |
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264 | (9) |
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PART III INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL MOBILITY |
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273 | (78) |
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Chapter 11 International Capital Market Integration |
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275 | (27) |
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11.1 Covered Interest Rate Parity |
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276 | (2) |
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11.2 Covered Interest Rate Differentials in China: 1998-2021 |
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278 | (1) |
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11.3 Capital Controls and Interest Rate Differentials: Brazil 2009-2012 |
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279 | (2) |
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11.4 Empirical Evidence on Covered Interest Rate Differentials: A Long-Run Perspective |
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281 | (2) |
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11.5 Empirical Evidence on Offshore-Onshore Interest Rate Differentials |
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283 | (2) |
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11.6 Uncovered Interest Rate Parity |
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285 | (7) |
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11.6.1 Asset Pricing in an Open Economy |
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285 | (3) |
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11.6.2 CIP as an Equilibrium Condition |
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288 | (1) |
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11.6.3 Is UIP an Equilibrium Condition? |
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288 | (2) |
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11.6.4 Carry Trade as a Test of UIP |
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290 | (1) |
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11.6.5 The Forward Premium Puzzle |
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291 | (1) |
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11.7 Real Interest Rate Parity |
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292 | (2) |
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11.8 Saving-Investment Correlations |
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294 | (4) |
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298 | (1) |
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299 | (3) |
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Chapter 12 Capital Controls |
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302 | (49) |
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12.1 Capital Controls and Interest Rate Differentials |
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303 | (1) |
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12.2 Macroeconomic Effects of Capital Controls |
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304 | (5) |
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12.2.1 Effects of Capital Controls on Consumption, Savings, and the Current Account |
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304 | (4) |
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12.2.2 Effects of Capital Controls on Investment |
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308 | (1) |
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12.2.3 Welfare Consequences of Capital Controls |
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309 | (1) |
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12.3 Quantitative Restrictions on Capital Flows |
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309 | (2) |
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12.4 Borrowing Externalities and Optimal Capital Controls |
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311 | (7) |
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12.4.1 An Economy with a Debt-Elastic Interest Rate |
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312 | (2) |
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12.4.2 Competitive Equilibrium without Government Intervention |
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314 | (2) |
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12.4.3 The Efficient Allocation |
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316 | (1) |
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12.4.4 Optimal Capital Control Policy |
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317 | (1) |
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12.5 Capital Mobility in a Large Economy |
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318 | (5) |
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12.6 Graphical Analysis of Equilibrium under Free Capital Mobility in a Large Economy |
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323 | (4) |
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12.7 Optimal Capital Controls in a Large Economy |
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327 | (4) |
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12.8 Graphical Analysis of Optimal Capital Controls in a Large Economy |
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331 | (1) |
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332 | (5) |
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12.10 Empirical Evidence on Capital Controls around the World |
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337 | (5) |
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342 | (1) |
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343 | (8) |
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PART IV MONETARY POLICY AND EXCHANGE RATES |
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351 | (106) |
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Chapter 13 Nominal Rigidity, Exchange Rate Policy, and Unemployment |
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353 | (46) |
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354 | (9) |
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13.1.1 The Supply Schedule |
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355 | (1) |
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13.1.2 The Demand Schedule |
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356 | (5) |
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13.1.3 The Labor Market Slackness Condition |
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361 | (1) |
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13.1.4 Equilibrium in the TNT-DNWR Model |
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362 | (1) |
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13.2 Adjustment to Shocks with a Fixed Exchange Rate |
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363 | (8) |
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13.2.1 An Increase in the World Interest Rate |
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364 | (2) |
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13.2.2 Asymmetric Adjustment: A Decrease in the World Interest Rate |
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366 | (2) |
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13.2.3 Output and Terms of Trade Shocks |
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368 | (2) |
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13.2.4 Volatility and Average Unemployment |
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370 | (1) |
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13.3 Adjustment to Shocks with a Floating Exchange Rate |
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371 | (6) |
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13.3.1 Adjustment to External Shocks |
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372 | (2) |
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13.3.2 Supply Shocks, the Inflation-Unemployment Trade-off, and Stagflation |
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374 | (3) |
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13.4 A Numerical Example: A World Interest Rate Hike |
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377 | (5) |
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13.4.1 The Pre-Shock Equilibrium |
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378 | (1) |
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13.4.2 Adjustment with a Fixed Exchange Rate |
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379 | (2) |
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13.4.3 Adjustment with a Floating Exchange Rate |
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381 | (1) |
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13.4.4 The Welfare Cost of a Currency Peg |
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381 | (1) |
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13.5 The Monetary Policy Trilemma |
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382 | (2) |
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13.6 Exchange Rate Overshooting |
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384 | (4) |
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13.7 Empirical Evidence on Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity |
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388 | (5) |
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13.7.1 Evidence from U.S. Micro Data |
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388 | (1) |
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13.7.2 Evidence from the Great Depression |
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388 | (2) |
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13.7.3 Evidence from Emerging Countries |
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390 | (3) |
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393 | (1) |
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393 | (1) |
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394 | (5) |
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Chapter 14 Managing Currency Pegs |
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399 | (25) |
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14.1 A Boom-Bust Cycle in the TNT-DNWR Model |
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399 | (2) |
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14.2 The Currency Peg Externality |
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401 | (1) |
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14.3 Managing a Currency Peg |
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402 | (13) |
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14.3.1 Macroprudential Capital Control Policy |
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403 | (3) |
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14.3.2 Fiscal Devaluations |
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406 | (5) |
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14.3.3 Higher Inflation in a Monetary Union |
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411 | (4) |
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14.4 The Boom-Bust Cycle in Peripheral Europe, 2000-2011 |
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415 | (2) |
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417 | (2) |
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419 | (5) |
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Chapter 15 Inflationary Finance and Balance of Payments Crises |
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424 | (33) |
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15.1 The Quantity Theory of Money |
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425 | (3) |
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15.1.1 A Flexible Exchange Rate Regime |
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427 | (1) |
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15.1.2 A Fixed Exchange Rate Regime |
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428 | (1) |
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15.2 A Monetary Economy with a Government Sector |
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428 | (3) |
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15.2.1 An Interest-Elastic Demand for Money |
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429 | (1) |
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15.2.2 Purchasing Power Parity |
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429 | (1) |
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15.2.3 The Interest Parity Condition |
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430 | (1) |
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15.2.4 The Government Budget Constraint |
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430 | (1) |
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15.3 Fiscal Deficits and the Sustainability of Currency Pegs |
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431 | (1) |
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15.4 Fiscal Consequences of a Devaluation |
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432 | (2) |
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15.5 A Constant Money Growth Rate Regime |
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434 | (1) |
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15.6 Fiscal Consequences of Money Creation |
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435 | (3) |
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435 | (1) |
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15.6.2 The Inflation Tax Laffer Curve |
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436 | (1) |
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15.6.3 Inflationary Finance |
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436 | (2) |
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15.7 Balance of Payments Crises |
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438 | (4) |
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15.8 Appendix: A Dynamic Optimizing Model of the Demand for Money |
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442 | (6) |
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448 | (1) |
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449 | (8) |
Index |
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457 | |