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List of Tables and Illustrations |
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ix | (4) |
Acknowledgments |
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xiii | |
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1 | (7) |
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The Policy Options for Dealing with Iraq |
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1 | (2) |
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Key Policy Complications in Dealing with Iraq |
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3 | (2) |
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A Lack of Present and Future Consensus |
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5 | (1) |
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Policy and the Role of Analysis |
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6 | (2) |
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2 Internal Political Developments Since the Gulf War |
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8 | (4) |
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Internal Political Developments Since the Gulf War |
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8 | (2) |
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The Informal and Formal Basis of Iraq's Power Structure |
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10 | (2) |
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3 The Informal Politics of the "Center" |
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12 | (24) |
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Sunni Popular Opinion and the "Center" Immediately after the Gulf War |
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12 | (1) |
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Sunni Popular Opinion and the "Center" Since the Gulf War |
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13 | (3) |
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Growing Alienation and the Death of "Reform" |
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16 | (3) |
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Problems with the Key Clans |
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19 | (2) |
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Problems in Saddam's Family and Coterie |
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21 | (10) |
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Current Trends in Iraq's Informal Power Structure |
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31 | (2) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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33 | (3) |
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4 The Formal Politics of Iraq's Instruments of State Power |
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36 | (23) |
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The Revolutionary Command Council |
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36 | (1) |
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37 | (3) |
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The Cabinet and Government Leadership |
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40 | (2) |
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42 | (2) |
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44 | (5) |
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49 | (8) |
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The "Old Boy" Network and the Interaction Between Informal and Formal Instruments of Power |
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57 | (1) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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58 | (1) |
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5 The "Periphery": Opposition Movements and Ethnic and Sectarian Issues |
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59 | (52) |
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59 | (1) |
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The Politics of Conspiracy and Violence |
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60 | (3) |
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63 | (7) |
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Iraq's Crisis with the Kurds |
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70 | (25) |
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The Role of the Kurds in a "Centrist" or "Peripheral" Strategy |
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95 | (2) |
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Iraq's Crisis with Its Shi'ites |
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97 | (12) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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109 | (2) |
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6 The "Periphery": Political Alienation and Abuses of Human Rights |
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111 | (13) |
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111 | (7) |
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Prisons and the Legal System |
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118 | (2) |
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Freedom of Speech and Political Dissent |
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120 | (1) |
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Treatment of Minorities and Foreigners |
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121 | (1) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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122 | (2) |
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7 Sanctions and Economic Instability |
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124 | (37) |
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The Iraqi Economy Before the Gulf War |
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127 | (9) |
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The Iraqi Economy After the Gulf War |
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136 | (1) |
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UN Sanctions and the Policies of the Iraqi Government |
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137 | (10) |
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The Iraqi Government's Refusal of Relief from UN Sanctions |
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147 | (3) |
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Accepting UN Security Council Resolution 986 |
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150 | (3) |
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The Future Political Impact of Sanctions |
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153 | (3) |
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Debt and Reparations After the Gulf War |
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156 | (2) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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158 | (3) |
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8 Oil and Iraqi Export Capabilities |
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161 | (21) |
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Iraq's Strategic Oil and Gas Potential |
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161 | (2) |
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Iraqi Oil Production Before the Gulf War |
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163 | (7) |
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Oil Production Efforts Since the Gulf War |
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170 | (3) |
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Iraqi Refining and Petrochemical Capability |
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173 | (1) |
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Production and Development Prospects Once Sanctions Are Lifted or Relaxed |
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174 | (2) |
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176 | (1) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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177 | (5) |
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182 | (29) |
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Iraq's Foreign Policy Since the Gulf War |
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182 | (2) |
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The Continuing Threat to Kuwait |
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184 | (5) |
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189 | (4) |
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Iraqi Support of the People's Mujahideen |
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193 | (1) |
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Relations with Syria, Jordan, and Turkey |
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193 | (7) |
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Iraq, Egypt, and Other Arab States |
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200 | (1) |
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201 | (3) |
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Iraq and the International Community |
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204 | (5) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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209 | (2) |
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211 | (22) |
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Iraqi Military Expenditures |
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218 | (6) |
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224 | (2) |
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Iraqi Efforts to Smuggle Arms and Parts and Rebuild Its Iraqi Military Industries Since the Gulf War |
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226 | (6) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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232 | (1) |
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11 The Threat from Iraqi Land Forces |
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233 | (30) |
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The Impact of the Gulf War on the Iraqi Army |
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233 | (3) |
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236 | (1) |
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237 | (1) |
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Deployments Against the Kurds |
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238 | (1) |
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Deployments Against the Shi'ites |
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239 | (1) |
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Land Force Equipment Holdings |
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240 | (18) |
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Land Force Readiness and Warfighting Effectiveness |
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258 | (4) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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262 | (1) |
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12 The Threat from Iraqi Air and Air Defense Forces |
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263 | (18) |
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The Cost of the Gulf War to the Iraqi Air Force |
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263 | (2) |
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Current Air Force Equipment Holdings |
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265 | (6) |
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Air Readiness and Warfighting Capabilities |
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271 | (3) |
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274 | (3) |
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Land-Based Air Defense Readiness and Warfighting Capability |
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277 | (3) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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280 | (1) |
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13 The Threat from Iraqi Naval Forces |
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281 | (5) |
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281 | (4) |
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Naval Readiness and Warfighting Capability |
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285 | (1) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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285 | (1) |
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14 Unconventional Warfare and Terrorism |
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286 | (4) |
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Recent Iraqi Terrorist Activity |
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286 | (1) |
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Attempting to Assassinate President Bush |
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287 | (1) |
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Other Recent Iraqi Acts of Terrorism |
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288 | (1) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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289 | (1) |
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15 The Threat from Iraqi Weapons of Mass Destruction |
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290 | (54) |
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The Struggle to Eliminate Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction |
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290 | (16) |
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Iraq's Future Missile Capabilities |
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306 | (8) |
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Iraq's Future Chemical Weapons Capabilities |
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314 | (4) |
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Iraq's Future Biological Weapons Capabilities |
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318 | (15) |
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Iraq's Future Nuclear Capability |
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333 | (2) |
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Implications for Western and Southern Gulf Strategy |
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335 | (9) |
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16 The Problem of Policy: Beyond Sanctions and "Dual Containment" |
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344 | (16) |
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The Case for Continuing Military Containment |
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345 | (5) |
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Prospects for Political Change |
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350 | (6) |
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Iran and Iraq: The Risk of a "Devil's Bargain," |
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356 | (1) |
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357 | (3) |
Sources and Methods |
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360 | (3) |
Notes |
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363 | (31) |
About the Book and Authors |
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394 | |