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List of Maps, Tables, and Figures |
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xiii | |
Preface |
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xv | |
Acknowledgments |
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xvii | |
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xxi | |
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List of Major Wars and Military Operations |
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xxiii | |
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PART ONE CONFRONTING A STRATEGIC NIGHTMARE |
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3 | (11) |
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1 Israel's Classic Defense Doctrine |
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14 | (19) |
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14 | (3) |
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17 | (6) |
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Geography as a Strategic Nightmare |
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17 | (2) |
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19 | (3) |
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22 | (1) |
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23 | (10) |
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"The Three Pillars": Deterrence, Early Warning, and Military Decision |
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23 | (1) |
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"The Few against the Many," or Quality over Quantity |
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24 | (1) |
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25 | (1) |
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26 | (1) |
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"Defensive Strategy, Executed Offensively" |
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26 | (2) |
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28 | (1) |
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28 | (1) |
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Strategic Autonomy and Self-Reliance |
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29 | (1) |
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29 | (1) |
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Nation Building and Socioeconomic Policy |
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29 | (4) |
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PART TWO A STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT TRANSFORMED |
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2 Israel's New Strategic Setting |
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33 | (29) |
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Changes In the Strategic Environment |
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34 | (5) |
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The Uniquely Long and Bitter Conflict Is No Longer as Extreme and Existential |
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34 | (4) |
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No Longer Just "Wars of No Choice" |
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38 | (1) |
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The Primary Threats Are No Longer Conventional Military Attack |
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38 | (1) |
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No Longer Quite a "Nation Dwelling Alone" |
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38 | (1) |
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Changing Strategic Constraints |
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39 | (10) |
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The Changing Importance of Geography and Territory |
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40 | (2) |
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42 | (6) |
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Changing Nature of Superpower Intervention |
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48 | (1) |
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Israel's Strategic Environment Today |
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49 | (11) |
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60 | (2) |
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3 The Changing Military Threat |
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62 | (30) |
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Conventional Military Threats |
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63 | (4) |
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Irregularand Asymmetric Threats |
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67 | (20) |
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The Rocket and Missile Threats |
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73 | (6) |
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79 | (4) |
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83 | (3) |
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86 | (1) |
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Future Peace Agreements: Some Security Dimensions |
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87 | (3) |
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90 | (2) |
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92 | (25) |
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Diplomatic Warfare, Delegitimization, Boycotts, and Sanctions |
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93 | (16) |
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Diplomatic Warfare and Isolation |
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95 | (4) |
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The Delegitimization and Boycott Campaign |
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99 | (7) |
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106 | (3) |
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Demography: A Nonlethal Existential Threat |
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109 | (6) |
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115 | (2) |
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5 Israeli Society and National Security |
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117 | (48) |
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Israel's Changing Society |
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119 | (9) |
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Rise of an Affluent Market Economy |
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119 | (1) |
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A Liberal Culture for an Affluent Society |
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120 | (3) |
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Ethnicity and Religiosity: A Domestic Demographic Crisis in the Making |
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123 | (5) |
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Societal Willingness to Bear the Defense Burden |
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128 | (24) |
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128 | (7) |
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135 | (5) |
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Willingness to Pay for Defense Expenditures |
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140 | (1) |
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141 | (7) |
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148 | (1) |
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149 | (3) |
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Ramifications of Societal Change for Israel's National Security Strategy |
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152 | (9) |
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Ramifications for the IDF's Identity and Structure |
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152 | (2) |
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Ramifications for IDF Operations |
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154 | (3) |
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Ramifications for National Security Decision-Making |
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157 | (4) |
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161 | (4) |
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PART THREE ISRAEL'S STRATEGIC RESPONSE |
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6 The Classic Military Response in Perspective |
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165 | (38) |
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166 | (20) |
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Deterrence: Mixed Results, Ongoing Importance |
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166 | (8) |
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Early Warning: At Least as Important, Harder to Achieve |
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174 | (1) |
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Military Decision: Much Harder to Achieve |
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175 | (8) |
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The "Defensive Pillar": An Unwanted Stepchild |
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183 | (3) |
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No Longer Quite "The Few Against the Many" |
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186 | (1) |
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Still Mostly A "Nation In Arms" |
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187 | (1) |
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Increasing Difficulty In Executing A Defensive Strategy Offensively |
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187 | (3) |
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Pre-emption Has Rarely Been Feasible |
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189 | (1) |
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Inflexible Defense Remains the Guiding Concept |
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189 | (1) |
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190 | (1) |
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190 | (1) |
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Great Power Alliance, But Strategic Autonomy: Israel Can No Longer Go It Alone |
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191 | (3) |
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Updating the Defense Doctrine: Past Attempts At Reform |
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194 | (7) |
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201 | (2) |
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7 The Military Response Today |
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203 | (31) |
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The Conventional Military Response |
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204 | (4) |
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Counterterrorism and Irregular Warfare |
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208 | (9) |
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208 | (1) |
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209 | (1) |
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210 | (7) |
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Countering the Rocket and Missile Threats |
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217 | (8) |
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Israel's Rocket and Missile Defense: Advantages and Disadvantages |
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221 | (4) |
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The Campaigns and the "Campaign Between the Campaigns" ("Mabam") |
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225 | (4) |
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229 | (3) |
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232 | (2) |
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8 Nuclear and Regional Arms Control Policy |
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234 | (24) |
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235 | (11) |
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Nonproliferation and Regional Arms Control Policy |
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246 | (2) |
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Prevention and Counterproliferation |
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248 | (2) |
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250 | (1) |
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Conclusions and Conundrums |
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250 | (6) |
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Option 1 Preserve Nuclear Ambiguity, Seek Gradual Legitimization |
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251 | (1) |
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252 | (1) |
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Option 3 Covert Operations, Military Action, or Both |
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253 | (1) |
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Option 4 A US Security Guarantee |
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254 | (1) |
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Option 5 Regional Alliance and Security Guarantee |
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254 | (1) |
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Option 6 Regional Disarmament, WMD-Free Zone |
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255 | (1) |
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256 | (2) |
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9 The Foreign Policy Response |
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258 | (31) |
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Israel's Foreign Policy: Primary Characteristics |
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258 | (18) |
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A Historic Legacy and Primal Sense of Insecurity |
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258 | (2) |
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Promoting Zionism and the Interests of the Jewish People |
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260 | (4) |
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264 | (1) |
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Diplomacy as an Instrument of Defense Policy |
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265 | (1) |
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Pragmatism with Strong Ideological Elements |
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266 | (1) |
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Promoting Legitimacy and Acceptance |
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267 | (1) |
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268 | (3) |
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Promoting Superpower Alliances, with Strategic Autonomy |
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271 | (1) |
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Pursuing Peace, but Security above All |
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271 | (2) |
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Limited Multilateral Involvement |
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273 | (2) |
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Playing to the Periphery and Arab Divisions |
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275 | (1) |
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Israel's Foreign Relations: A Contemporary Overview |
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276 | (11) |
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Diplomacy in Support of Israel's Primary Relations |
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277 | (4) |
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Diplomacy in Support of Peace |
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281 | (2) |
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Diplomacy in Support of Strategic Partnerships |
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283 | (2) |
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Diplomacy in Support of Economic Growth |
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285 | (1) |
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Covert Diplomacy and Arms Sales in Support of Israel's Foreign Relations |
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285 | (2) |
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287 | (2) |
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10 The "Special Relationship" |
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289 | (36) |
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The Strategic Relationship: An Overview |
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290 | (18) |
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290 | (1) |
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291 | (15) |
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306 | (2) |
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308 | (12) |
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Question 1 Has Israel Lost Its Independence to the United States? |
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308 | (7) |
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Question 2 Can Israel Survive Today without the United States? |
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315 | (2) |
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Question 3 Where Is the US-Israeli Relationship Heading? |
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317 | (3) |
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320 | (5) |
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PART FOUR A NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY FOR AN ERA OF CHANGE |
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325 | (15) |
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328 | (2) |
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Politico-Military Conclusions |
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330 | (4) |
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334 | (4) |
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338 | (2) |
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12 Policy Recommendations |
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340 | (45) |
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Politico-Military Policy Recommendations |
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341 | (18) |
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Military Policy Recommendations |
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359 | (19) |
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Domestic Policy Recommendations |
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378 | (6) |
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384 | (1) |
Appendix: UN Resolutions on Israel and Select Countries |
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385 | (10) |
List of Interviews |
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395 | (2) |
Notes |
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397 | (34) |
Bibliography |
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431 | (18) |
Index |
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449 | |