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E-grāmata: Learning to Predict Climate Variations Associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation: Accomplishments and Legacies of the TOGA Program

  • Formāts: 192 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 12-Dec-1996
  • Izdevniecība: National Academies Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780309176095
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  • Formāts: 192 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 12-Dec-1996
  • Izdevniecība: National Academies Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780309176095
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The TOGA (Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere) Program was designed to study short-term climate variations. A 10-year international program, TOGA made El Nino a household word. This book chronicles the cooperative efforts of oceanographers and meteorologists, several U.S. government agencies, many other nations, and international scientific organizations to study El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO).



It describes the progression from being unable to detect the development of large climate variations to being able to make and use rudimentary climate predictions, especially for some tropical countries. It examines the development of the TOGA Program, evaluates its accomplishments, describes U.S. participation in the program, and makes general recommendations for developing better understanding and predictions of climate variations on seasonal to interannual time scales.

Table of Contents



FRONT MATTER SUMMARY 1. INTRODUCTION 2. GROWTH OF THE TOGA PROGRAM 3. COMPONENTS OF THE U.S. TOGA PROGRAM 4. WHAT WE'VE LEARNED 5. ORGANIZATION 6. APPLICATIONS OF ENSO PREDICTION 7. THE FUTURE REFERENCES APPENDICES
SUMMARY 1(4)
1. INTRODUCTION
5(7)
El Nino and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
7(1)
Concept of the TOGA Program
8(1)
Purpose of this Report
9(3)
2. GROWTH OF THE TOGA PROGRAM
12(10)
ENSO: A Coupled Ocean--Atmosphere Phenomenon
12(2)
Emergence of a Coherent Effort (1970-1984)
14(4)
Development of the TOGA Program
18(1)
Scientific Plan for TOGA (1985)
19(3)
3. COMPONENTS OF THE U.S. TOGA PROGRAM
22(59)
Observations of ENSO
24(26)
Process Studies
50(16)
Modeling ENSO
66(5)
Prediction
71(5)
TOGA Products
76(2)
Problems and Shortcomings
78(3)
4. WHAT WE'VE LEARNED
81(29)
Observations of ENSO in the Tropical Pacific
82(5)
Effects of ENSO on the Rest of the Globe
87(9)
Theories of ENSO
96(10)
Working in a Larger Community
106(4)
5. ORGANIZATION
110(13)
U.S. Organizational Arrangements
111(6)
International Organizational Arrangements
117(6)
6. APPLICATIONS OF ENSO PREDICTION
123(9)
Development of Applications and Assessments
124(3)
Applications of Regional ENSO Forecasts
127(5)
7. THE FUTURE
132(9)
What TOGA Didn't Do
133(2)
Obstacles to Progress
135(3)
An International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRICP)
138(1)
GOALS and CLIVAR
139(3)
REFERENCES 141(24)
APPENDICES 165
A. Members of the TOGA Panel 165(1)
B. TOGA Products 166(3)
C. Acronyms and Other Abbreviations 169
Advisory Panel for the Tropical Oceans and Global Atmosphere Program (TOGA Panel), National Research Council