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E-grāmata: Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves

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Learning, Unlearning and Re-learning Curves (Volume IV of the Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting series) focuses in on Learning Curves, and the various tried and tested models of Wright, Crawford, DeJong, Towill-Bevis and others. It explores the differences and similarities between the various models and examines the key properties that Estimators and Forecasters can exploit.

A discussion about Learning Curve Cost Drivers leads to the consideration of a little used but very powerful technique of Learning Curve modelling called Segmentation, which looks at an organisations complex learning curve as the product of multiple shallower learning curves. Perhaps the biggest benefit is that it simplifies the calculations in Microsoft Excel where there is a change in the rate of learning observed or expected. The same technique can be used to model and calibrate discontinuities in the learning process that result in setbacks and uplifts in time or cost. This technique is compared with other, better known techniques such as Anderlohrs.

Equivalent Unit Learning is another, relative new technique that can be used alongside traditional completed unit learning to give an early warning of changes in the rates of learning. Finally, a Learning Curve can be exploited to estimate the penalty of collaborative working across multiple partners. Supported by a wealth of figures and tables, this is a valuable resource for estimators, engineers, accountants, project risk specialists, as well as students of cost engineering.

Recenzijas

"In the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting Alan has managed to capture the full spectrum of relevant topics with simple explanations, practical examples and academic rigor, while injecting humour into the narrative." Dale Shermon, Chairman, Society of Cost Analysis and Forecasting (SCAF).

"If estimating has always baffled you, this innovative well illustrated and user friendly book will prove a revelation to its mysteries. To confidently forecast, minimise risk and reduce uncertainty we need full disclosure into the science and art of estimating. Thankfully, and at long last the "Working Guides to Estimating & Forecasting" are exactly that, full of practical examples giving clarity, understanding and validity to the techniques. These are comprehensive step by step guides in understanding the principles of estimating using experientially based models to analyse the most appropriate, repeatable, transparent and credible outcomes. Each of the five volumes affords a valuable tool for both corporate reference and an outstanding practical resource for the teaching and training of this elusive and complex subject. I wish I had access to such a thorough reference when I started in this discipline over 15 years ago, I am looking forward to adding this to my library and using it with my team." - Tracey L Clavell, Head of Estimating & Pricing, BAE Systems Australia

"At last, a comprehensive compendium on these engineering math subjects, essential to both the new and established "cost engineer"! As expected the subjects are presented with the authors usual wit and humour on complex and daunting "mathematically challenging" subjects. As a professional trainer within the MOD Cost Engineering community trying to embed this into my students, I will be recommending this series of books as essential bedtime reading." - Steve Baker, Senior Cost Engineer, DE&S MOD

"Alan has been a highly regarded member of the Cost Estimating and forecasting profession for several years. He is well known for an ability to reduce difficult topics and cost estimating methods down to something that is easily digested. As a master of this communication he would most often be found providing training across the cost estimating and forecasting tools and at all levels of expertise. With this 5-volume set, Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting, Alan has brought his normal verbal training method into a written form. Within their covers Alan steers away from the usual dry academic script into establishing an almost 1:1 relationship with the reader. For my money a recommendable read for all levels of the Cost Estimating and forecasting profession and those who simply want to understand what is in the blackbox just a bit more." - Prof Robert Mills, Margin Engineering, Birmingham City University. MACOSTE, SCAF, ICEAA.

"Finally, a book to fill the gap in cost estimating and forecasting! Although other publications exist in this field, they tend to be light on detail whilst also failing to cover many of the essential aspects of estimating and forecasting. Jones covers all this and more from both a theoretical and practical point of view, regularly drawing on his considerable experience in the defence industry to provide many practical examples to support his comments. Heavily illustrated throughout, and often presented in a humorous fashion, this is a must read for those who want to understand the importance of cost estimating within the broader field of project management." - Dr Paul Blackwell, Lecturer in Management of Projects, The University of Manchester, UK.

"Alan Jones provides a useful guidebook and navigation aid for those entering the field of estimating as well as an overview for more experienced practitioners. His humorous asides supplement a thorough explanation of techniques to liven up and illuminate an area which has little attention in the literature, yet is the basis of robust project planning and successful delivery. Alans talent for explaining the complicated science and art of estimating in practical terms is testament to his knowledge of the subject and to his experience in teaching and training." - Therese Lawlor-Wright, Principal Lecturer in Project Management at the University of Cumbria

"Alan Jones has created an in depth guide to estimating and forecasting that I have not seen historically. Anyone wishing to improve their awareness in this field should read this and learn from the best." Richard Robinson, Technical Principal for Estimating, Mott MacDonald

"The book series of Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting is an essential read for students, academics and practitioners who interested in developing a good understanding of cost estimating and forecasting from real-life perspectives". Professor Essam Shehab, Professor of Digital Manufacturing and Head of Cost Engineering, Cranfield University, UK.

"In creating the Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting, Alan has captured the core approaches and techniques required to deliver robust and reliable estimates in a single series. Some of the concepts can be challenging, however, Alan has delivered them to the reader in a very accessible way that supports lifelong learning. Whether you are an apprentice, academic or a seasoned professional, these working guides will enhance your ability to understand the alternative approaches to generating a well-executed, defensible estimate, increasing your ability to support competitive advantage in your organisation." - Professor Andrew Langridge, Royal Academy of Engineering Visiting Professor in Whole Life Cost Engineering and Cost Data Management, University of Bath, UK.

"Alan Joness "Working Guides to Estimating and Forecasting" provides an excellent guide for all levels of cost estimators from the new to the highly experienced. Not only does he cover the underpinning good practice for the field, his books will take you on a journey from cost estimating basics through to how estimating should be used in manufacturing the future reflecting on a whole life cycle approach. He has written a must-read book for anyone starting cost estimating as well as for those who have been doing estimates for years. Read this book and learn from one of the best." - Linda Newnes, Professor of Cost Engineering, University of Bath, UK.

List of Figures xiii
List of Tables xvii
Foreword xxii
1 Introduction and objectives 1(13)
1.1 Why write this book? Who might find it useful? Why five volumes?
1(1)
1.1.1 Why write this series? Who might find it useful?
1(1)
1.1.2 Why five volumes?
2(1)
1.2 Features you'll find in this book and others in this series
2(5)
1.2.1
Chapter context
3(1)
1.2.2 The lighter side (humour)
3(1)
1.2.3 Quotations
3(1)
1.2.4 Definitions
3(1)
1.2.5 Discussions and explanations with a mathematical slant for Formula-philes
4(1)
1.2.6 Discussions and explanations without a mathematical slant for Formula-phobes
5(1)
1.2.7 Caveat augur
5(1)
1.2.8 Worked examples
6(1)
1.2.9 Useful Microsoft Excel functions and facilities
6(1)
1.2.10 References to authoritative sources
6(1)
1.2.11
Chapter reviews
7(1)
1.3 Overview of chapters in this volume
7(1)
1.4 Elsewhere in the 'Working Guide to Estimating & Forecasting' series
8(4)
1.4.1 Volume I: Principles, Process and Practice of Professional Number Juggling
9(1)
1.4.2 Volume II: Probability, Statistics and Other Frightening Stuff
9(1)
1.4.3 Volume III: Best Fit Lines and Curves, and Some Mathe-Magical Transformations
10(1)
1.4.4 Volume IV: Learning, Unlearning and Re-Learning Curves
11(1)
1.4.5 Volume V: Risk, Opportunity, Uncertainty and Other Random Models
11(1)
1.5 Final thoughts and musings on this volume and series
12(1)
References
13(1)
2 Quantity-based Learning Curves 14(85)
2.1 A brief history of the Learning Curve as a formal relationship
16(1)
2.2 Two basic Learning Curve models (Wright and Crawford)
17(22)
2.2.1 Wright Cumulative Average Learning Curve
18(5)
2.2.2 Crawford Unit Learning Curve
23(3)
2.2.3 Wright and Crawford Learning Curves compared
26(1)
2.2.4 What's so special about the doubling rule?
27(6)
2.2.5 Learning Curve regression -What appears to be Wright, may in fact be wrong!
33(6)
2.3 Variations on the basic Learning Curve models
39(12)
2.3.1 DeJong Unit Learning Curve
39(1)
2.3.2 DeJong-Wright Cumulative Average Hybrid Learning Curve
40(3)
2.3.3 Stanford-B Unit Learning Curve
43(2)
2.3.4 Stanford-Wright Cumulative Average Hybrid Learning Curve
45(2)
2.3.5 S-Curve Unit Learning Curve
47(1)
2.3.6 S-Curve-Wright Cumulative Average Hybrid Learning Curve
48(3)
2.4 Where and when to apply learning and how much?
51(16)
2.4.1 To what kind of task can a Learning Curve be applied?
51(3)
2.4.2 Additive and non-additive properties of Learning Curves
54(2)
2.4.3 Calibrating or measuring observed learning
56(6)
2.4.4 What if we don't have any actuals? Rules of Thumb rates of learning
62(5)
2.5 Changing the rate of learning - Breakpoints
67(7)
2.5.1 Dealing with a breakpoint in a Unit Learning Curve calculation
69(4)
2.5.2 Dealing with a breakpoint in a Cumulative Average Learning Curve calculation
73(1)
2.6 Learning Curves: Stepping up and stepping down
74(7)
2.6.1 Step-points in a Unit Learning Curve calculation
74(2)
2.6.2 Step-points in a Cumulative Average Learning Curve calculation
76(5)
2.7 Cumulative values of Crawford Unit Learning Curves
81(15)
2.7.1 Conway-Schultz Cumulative approximation
81(1)
2.7.2 Jones Cumulative approximation
82(3)
2.7.3 Cumulative approximation formulae compared
85(5)
2.7.4 Batch or Lot Averages
90(3)
2.7.5 Profiling recurring hours or costs - The quick way
93(3)
2.8
Chapter review
96(1)
References
97(2)
3 Unit Learning Curve - Cost Driver Segmentation 99(39)
3.1 Learning Curve Cost Driver studies -What others have said
100(4)
3.1.1 Loud and clear
100(2)
3.1.2 Jefferson's Pie
102(2)
3.2 Cost Driver changes and breakpoints
104(10)
3.2.1 Output rate: Driver or consequence of learning?
104(7)
3.2.2 End-of-line effects on learning
111(3)
3.3 Segmentation Approach to Unit learning
114(21)
3.3.1 Stopping and starting from where we left off
118(3)
3.3.2 What if we invest more or less up-front?
121(5)
3.3.3 Rate affected learning revisited
126(2)
3.3.4 Parallel v serial working
128(2)
3.3.5 Calibrating the Cost Driver segment contributions
130(5)
3.4
Chapter review
135(2)
References
137(1)
4 Unlearning and re-learning techniques 138(28)
4.1 Reasons to forget
139(1)
4.2 Anderlohr's technique
140(4)
4.3 An alternative Simplified Retrograde Technique (not recommended)
144(1)
4.4 Segmentation Technique
145(5)
4.5 Comparison of re-learning techniques
150(2)
4.6 Calibrating the level of learning lost
152(12)
4.6.1 Calibrating the level of learning lost using the Segmentation Technique
152(8)
4.6.2 Calibrating the level of learning lost using the Anderlohr technique
160(4)
4.7
Chapter review
164(1)
References
165(1)
5 Equivalent Unit Learning 166(44)
5.1 The problems with traditional Unit Learning Curves
166(6)
5.2 Development of the Equivalent Unit Learning theory
172(15)
5.2.1 EUL confidence and prediction intervals
184(3)
5.3 Equivalent Unit Learning and breakpoints
187(3)
5.4 Double-Bunking data for early debunking of breakpoints
190(8)
5.5 Equivalent Unit Learning and achievement mortgaging (progress optimism bias)
198(4)
5.6 Using Equivalent Unit Learning as a top-down validation
202(4)
5.7 Benefits of using Equivalent Unit Learning
206(2)
5.8
Chapter review
208(1)
References
208(2)
6 Multi-variant learning 210(38)
6.1 Multi-variant Learning Curves
210(12)
6.1.1 Option 1: Ignore Differences (ID)
212(4)
6.1.2 Option 2: Fixed Factors (FF)
216(1)
6.1.3 Option 3: Total Separation (TS)
217(2)
6.1.4 Option 4: Proportional Representation (PR)
219(3)
6.2 Multi-variant Learning Curve model calibration
222(22)
6.2.1 Calibration with the ID approach
225(4)
6.2.2 Calibration with the FF approach
229(4)
6.2.3 Calibration with the TS approach
233(3)
6.2.4 Calibration with the PR approach
236(3)
6.2.5 Comparison of results
239(5)
6.3 Cross-product organisational Learning Curve models
244(3)
6.4
Chapter review
247(1)
References
247(1)
7 Time-based Learning Curves 248(18)
7.1 Time-Performance Learning Curve
249(5)
7.2 Bevis-Towill Time-Constant model
254(8)
7.3 Cross-product organisational Learning Curve models revisited
262(2)
7.4
Chapter review
264(1)
References
265(1)
8 The cost impact of collaborative working 266(11)
8.1 Collaborative development costs with equal workshare partners
267(4)
8.2 The collaborative development with unequal workshare partners
271(4)
8.3 Production cost implications of collaborative working
275(1)
8.4
Chapter review
276(1)
References
276(1)
Glossary of estimating and forecasting terms 277(19)
Legend for Microsoft Excel Worked Example Tables in Greyscale 296(1)
Index 297
Alan R. Jones is Principal Consultant at Estimata Limited, aconsultancy service specialising in Estimating Skills Training. He is a Certified Cost Estimator/Analyst (US) and Certified Cost Engineer (CCE) (UK). Prior to setting up his own business, he enjoyed a 40-year career in the UK aerospace and defence industry as an estimatorAlan is a Fellow of the Association of Cost Engineers and a member of the International Cost Estimating and Analysis Association. Historically (some four decades ago), Alan was a graduate in Mathematics from Imperial College of Science and Technology in London, and was an MBA Prize-winner at the Henley Management College.
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