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E-grāmata: Logic of Miracles: Making Sense of Rare, Really Rare, and Impossibly Rare Events

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  • Formāts: EPUB+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 17-Apr-2018
  • Izdevniecība: Yale University Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780300238488
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  • Formāts: EPUB+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 17-Apr-2018
  • Izdevniecība: Yale University Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9780300238488
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Why we need a science of miracles


We live in a much more turbulent world than we like to think, but the science we use to analyze economic, financial, and statistical events mostly disregards the world’s essentially chaotic nature. We need to get used to the idea that wildly improbable events are actually part of the natural order. The renowned Hungarian mathematician and psychologist László Méro explains how the wild and mild worlds (which he names Wildovia and Mildovia) coexist, and that different laws apply to each. Even if we live in an ultimately wild universe, he argues, we’re better off pretending that it obeys Mildovian laws. Doing so may amount to a self-fulfilling prophecy and create an island of predictability in a very rough sea. Perched on the ragged border between economics and complexity theory, Méro proposes to extend the reach of science to subjects previously considered outside its grasp: the unpredictable, unrepeatable, highly improbable events we commonly call “miracles.”

Recenzijas

It's hard to see how miracles and math fit together. But if you accept Lįszló Mérö's invitation, you will enter a world where miracles are normal and the predictable sits side-by-side with the unpredictable. Along the way, he unveils the mathematics of the stock market and explains, in a playful yet mathematically accurate way, the roots of market crashes and earthquakes, and why black swans are not just calamities but opportunities.Albert-Lįszló Barabįsi, author of Linked

"Engaging, accessible, yet consistently surprising, Laszlo Meros The Logic of Miracles breaks new ground in the relationship of probability, fate, and the ability of human beings to behold them."Douglas Rushkoff, author of Present Shock  

This is a masterpiece. Laszlo Merö, with intelligence and wisdom, summarizes knowledge of mathematics and statistics, philosophy and psychology, natural and social sciences, to explain the nature of miracles of life. Scientific methods are explained brilliantly, spiked with anecdotes and dry humor. Erich Kirchler, University of Vienna, Austria  

Preface vii
Acknowledgments xi
PART ONE SECULAR MIRACLES
1 On the Existence of Miracles
3(17)
2 The Mild World and the Wild World
20(22)
3 The Source of Miracles: Godel's Idea
42(25)
PART TWO THE MILD WORLD
4 The Power of the Normal Distribution
67(17)
5 The Extremities of Mildovia
84(18)
6 The Sources of Equilibrium
102(23)
PART THREE THE WILD WORLD
7 The Mathematics of the Unpredictable
125(16)
8 Scale-Invariance
141(20)
9 The Levels of Wildness
161(22)
10 Life in Wildovia
183(16)
PART FOUR PREPARING FOR THE INCONCEIVABLE
11 Adapting to Wildovia
199(15)
12 Antifragility
214(20)
13 Convertible Knowledge
234(17)
Epilogue 251(4)
Notes 255(6)
Bibliography 261(6)
Index 267
Lįszló Mér is a professor at the Institute of Psychology at Eötvös Lorįnd University and cofounder of the marketing firm Darwins Marketing Evolution, Inc. He is the author of several books, including Moral Calculations.