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xiii | |
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xv | |
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xix | |
Preface |
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xxi | |
Acknowledgments |
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xxv | |
The Author |
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xxvii | |
Abbreviations |
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xxix | |
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Chapter 1 Country Risk in Perspective |
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1 | (30) |
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1 | (1) |
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Insight into the Foundation of the Arab Spring |
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2 | (10) |
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How Political Change in MENA Is Impacting Country Risk Analysis |
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12 | (2) |
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Perception versus Reality of Risk: Does Terrorism Negatively Impact Foreign Direct Investment? |
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14 | (4) |
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Empirical Studies Can Yield Contradictory Results |
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15 | (3) |
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The Impact of Perception on Investment Decisions |
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18 | (8) |
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Risk Management versus Profit Maximization |
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20 | (1) |
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20 | (3) |
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What Statistics Say about the Global Recovery since 2009 |
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23 | (3) |
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Managing Country Risk in the "New Normal" |
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26 | (2) |
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28 | (3) |
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Chapter 2 Foundations of Country Risk Management |
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31 | (24) |
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31 | (1) |
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Economic Nationalism in Pakistan |
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32 | (2) |
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Extractive Enterprises Are Particularly Vulnerable |
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33 | (1) |
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The Danger of Focusing Too Much on Net Income |
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34 | (1) |
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Bolivia's Mass Nationalizations |
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34 | (3) |
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The Importance of History |
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35 | (1) |
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36 | (1) |
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Papua New Guinea's Natural Resource Curse |
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37 | (5) |
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38 | (2) |
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Systemic Corruption Creates Risk |
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40 | (1) |
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40 | (2) |
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42 | (6) |
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Country versus Sovereign versus Political versus Transactional Risk |
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43 | (1) |
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How Banks Approach Transactional Risk Management |
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44 | (1) |
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The Lessons of the Asia Crisis |
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45 | (1) |
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Elements of an Effective Risk Management Process |
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46 | (2) |
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48 | (4) |
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The Impact on Firm Performance |
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51 | (1) |
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Separating Fact from Fiction |
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52 | (1) |
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53 | (2) |
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Chapter 3 Assessing Country Risk |
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55 | (20) |
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55 | (2) |
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57 | (2) |
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Are Rating Agencies' Ratings Worth Using? |
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59 | (4) |
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Measuring Political Stability |
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63 | (5) |
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Comparing Indonesia and Vietnam |
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68 | (5) |
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73 | (2) |
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Chapter 4 Country Risk Assessment in Practice |
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75 | (22) |
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Creating a Risk Management Framework |
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75 | (7) |
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Selecting Country Risk Management Tools |
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82 | (5) |
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86 | (1) |
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Mapping Out a Country Risk Analysis Methodology |
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87 | (3) |
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Alternative Measures of Country Risk |
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90 | (5) |
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Corruption Perceptions Index |
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90 | (1) |
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90 | (1) |
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91 | (1) |
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92 | (1) |
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93 | (1) |
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93 | (2) |
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95 | (1) |
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95 | (1) |
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96 | (1) |
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Chapter 5 Political Risk Insurance |
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97 | (44) |
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What Is Political Risk Insurance? |
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97 | (4) |
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101 | (1) |
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An Overview of Investment Insurance |
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101 | (9) |
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102 | (2) |
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Forced Abandonment/Key Operator's Endangerment |
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104 | (1) |
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Financed-Asset Nonrepossession |
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105 | (1) |
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Deprivation/Contingent Deprivation |
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105 | (1) |
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Currency Inconvertibility/Nontransfer |
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105 | (3) |
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108 | (1) |
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109 | (1) |
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An Overview of Trade Insurance |
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110 | (5) |
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111 | (1) |
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Non-Honoring of Letters of Credit |
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112 | (1) |
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Wrongful Calling of Guarantees |
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112 | (1) |
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Trade Disruption Insurance |
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113 | (1) |
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113 | (1) |
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114 | (1) |
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Underwriters and the Underwriting Process |
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115 | (10) |
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The Private Sector Players |
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116 | (1) |
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116 | (1) |
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116 | (1) |
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117 | (1) |
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117 | (1) |
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117 | (1) |
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117 | (1) |
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117 | (1) |
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118 | (2) |
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Underwriting Trade Transactions |
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120 | (1) |
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Underwriting Export Credit Transactions |
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121 | (1) |
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122 | (2) |
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124 | (1) |
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124 | (1) |
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125 | (1) |
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Case Study: Assessing the Risk of a Power Plant in Indonesia |
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125 | (11) |
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127 | (1) |
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127 | (1) |
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Technical/Financial Viability |
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128 | (1) |
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128 | (1) |
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128 | (1) |
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129 | (1) |
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129 | (2) |
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Currency Inconvertibility |
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131 | (2) |
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133 | (2) |
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135 | (1) |
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The Impact of the Asia Crisis and Lessons Learned |
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136 | (2) |
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138 | (3) |
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Chapter 6 Tales from the Battle Zone |
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141 | (16) |
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How Easy It Is to Make Costly Mistakes |
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141 | (7) |
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A Telecommunications Company in Pakistan |
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141 | (1) |
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A Paper Company in Russia |
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142 | (1) |
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A Power Company in Brazil |
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142 | (1) |
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An Arab Oil Company in Saudi Arabia |
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142 | (1) |
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143 | (1) |
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A Fast Food Chain in Palestine |
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144 | (1) |
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A Media Enterprise in the Czech Republic |
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145 | (1) |
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An Energy Company in Venezuela |
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145 | (1) |
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A Technology Company in South Korea |
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146 | (1) |
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146 | (1) |
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A Pharmaceutical Company in Yugoslavia |
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147 | (1) |
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147 | (1) |
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A Power Company in Canada |
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147 | (1) |
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The Failure of a Bank's Country Risk Management Program |
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148 | (7) |
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How the Program Was Revised |
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151 | (1) |
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152 | (1) |
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Creating an Operational Foundation |
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153 | (1) |
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154 | (1) |
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155 | (2) |
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Chapter 7 The Importance of Understanding China and Its Place in the World |
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157 | (36) |
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157 | (1) |
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Geopolitics with Chinese Characteristics |
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158 | (4) |
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China as the Aggressor---The Case of the Spratly Islands |
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162 | (3) |
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Asia Looks Nervously over Its Shoulder |
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165 | (3) |
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The Maturing Chinese-Saudi Arabian Alliance |
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168 | (9) |
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FDI with Chinese Characteristics |
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171 | (6) |
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China's Rare Earth Bravado |
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177 | (3) |
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China and the Power of the Dollar |
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179 | (1) |
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China's Great "Development" Challenge |
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180 | (2) |
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China's Real Estate Syndrome |
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182 | (3) |
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The Enigma of China's Middle Class |
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185 | (2) |
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187 | (2) |
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189 | (4) |
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Chapter 8 Shifting Pendulums, Pressing Concerns, and the State of the World |
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193 | (36) |
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193 | (1) |
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Brazil's and Turkey's Messages |
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194 | (3) |
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Brazil's and Turkey's Nuclear Ambitions |
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195 | (1) |
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Rising Tension with Turkey |
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196 | (1) |
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196 | (1) |
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Turkey's Foreign Policy Vision |
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197 | (5) |
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Turkish Foreign Policy: Moderation in the Extreme |
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198 | (1) |
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Is Turkey Really Rethinking Its Place in the World? |
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199 | (1) |
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Upheaval in the Middle East: An Opportunity for Turkey |
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200 | (2) |
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The Folly of Brazil's Exceptionalism |
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202 | (4) |
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To BRIC or Not to BRIC---That Is the Question |
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203 | (1) |
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204 | (1) |
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Pursuit of Autonomy versus an Adversarial Role |
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205 | (1) |
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Aid Recipient and Provider |
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205 | (1) |
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206 | (1) |
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BRICs Form Unstable Foundation for Multilateral Action |
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206 | (2) |
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Iraq's Democratic Experiment |
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208 | (4) |
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Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua: Lofty Idealism versus Hard-Nosed Politics |
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212 | (3) |
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India's Ongoing Concerns about Pakistan and Afghanistan |
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215 | (3) |
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Globalization Will Not Change Some Things |
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218 | (8) |
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226 | (3) |
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229 | (32) |
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Country Risk Management Dictionary of Key Terms |
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231 | (28) |
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232 | (17) |
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II Political Risk Insurance |
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249 | (10) |
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259 | (2) |
Bibliography |
|
261 | (4) |
Index |
|
265 | |