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E-grāmata: Managing Country Risk: A Practitioner's Guide to Effective Cross-Border Risk Analysis

4.33/5 (24 ratings by Goodreads)
(Country Risk Solutions, Norwalk, Connecticut, USA)
  • Formāts: 308 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 15-Feb-2012
  • Izdevniecība: CRC Press Inc
  • ISBN-13: 9781466500488
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  • Formāts: 308 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 15-Feb-2012
  • Izdevniecība: CRC Press Inc
  • ISBN-13: 9781466500488
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What would you do if a law that enabled your investment to operate successfully abroad suddenly changed, and your business could no longer operate profitably there? Imagine exporting goods to a government buyer only to discover after the fact that your home country, or the United Nations, has just imposed an embargo on that country.

Managing Country Risk: A Practitioner’s Guide to Effective Cross-Border Risk Analysis explains how to identify and manage the many risks associated with conducting business abroad. Daniel Wagner, an industry expert with decades of battle-tested experience, provides the real-world insight needed to think outside the box and anticipate the impact of change on your business operations.

Using case studies and practical examples, it supplies essential information on country risk management and explains how these concepts apply to every day operational examples. Considering the impact of perception on investment decisions, it demonstrates how to put a country risk assessment into practice and explains how to create a framework, select the right tools, and map out a country risk analysis methodology.

Appropriate for a wide audience—from individual entrepreneurs and small exporters to multinational corporations—the book provides a solid foundation in the basics of country risk analysis. It facilitates an understanding of the full range of cross-border risks and explains how to manage them.

The strategies, concepts, and tools outlined in the book provide you with the understanding needed to help your organization make more-informed decisions about how it does business abroad. Practical examples and case studies provide the real-world insight needed to add value to the risk management processes in your organization and enhance your company’s ability to make a profit.

Recenzijas

Many important areas of modern finance lack that one solid, unbiased book that tells both the novice everything he or she needs to know about the subject, brings a coherent structure, and important, fresh insights to seasoned practitioners. Daniel Wagner has brought the world the go-to book on country risk analysis. Managing Country Risk provides a broad, deep, and accurately detailed analysis of country risk analysis tools and techniques in a volume unlike any I have read before. It is both timely and likely to enjoy a long shelf life.Jeffrey Christian, Managing Director, CPM Group and author of Commodities Rising

Daniel Wagner has written an excellent, thought provoking, and well-crafted book that speaks directly to the needs of financial professionals tasked with navigating the complex world of cross-border risk analysis. Investment managers, commercial lenders, risk managers, and members of senior management will all benefit from the insights in this book, which provide the tools needed to make stronger, better, and more holistic global investment decisions.Peter Went, Vice President, Global Association of Risk Professionals Research Center

Wagner carefully sorts through the fundamental principles of country risk management, adding context with examples from his quarter century as a political risk insurance underwriter, country risk manager and advisor. The chapter on political risk insurance is the best comprehensive description of the product that I have seen. This book is an invaluable tool for the scholar and practitioner alike in understanding country risk and the techniques available to international investors and traders to address those risks.Frederick E. Jenney, Partner, Project Finance & Development Group, Morrison & Foerster, Washington D.C.

The first book that combines easily understood text, insightful analysis, and effective strategies to minimize the risks inherent in cross-border business transactions. I consider this book a must read for anyone charged with managing country risk.Mark T. Williams, Executive-in-Resident/Master Lecturer, Boston University School of Management, and author of Uncontrolled Risk: The Lessons of Lehman Brothers and How Systemic Risk Can Still Bring Down the World Financial System

I found great value in Daniel Wagner's approach of combining 101 subject matter with graduate level country risk concepts, and was fascinated with the practical examples he used to drive the points home. I would think that this book would be of great value to a widely varied audience, including CEOs, CFOs, risk managers, directors of multinational boards, insurance underwriters and brokers, academics, and public sector practitioners.Rod Morris, Vice President of Insurance, Overseas Private Investment Corporation

... a marvelous exploration of a mind trained to integrate all information on all subjects into a coherent viewpoint that produces a business decision. After a long career practicing this kind of thinking in both the public and private sectors, Wagners approach, and this book, are a treasure.Dr. Paul Armington, President, World Institute for Leadership and Management in Africa

Managing Country Risk, by Daniel Wagner who has had years of experience in cross-border risk management, is a must have ready reference and reality guide for any trader, investor, lender or NGO considering any cross-border activity. a very digestible book . As you prepare for your sojourn abroad, be sure to pack your well read copy of Managing Country Risk which should include your own marginal notes reminding you what to ask and do in order to thoroughly evaluate your own observations and the information you are given. John Lyman, in International Policy Digest, March 2012

List of Tables
xiii
List of Figures
xv
List of Maps
xix
Preface xxi
Acknowledgments xxv
The Author xxvii
Abbreviations xxix
Chapter 1 Country Risk in Perspective
1(30)
Introduction
1(1)
Insight into the Foundation of the Arab Spring
2(10)
How Political Change in MENA Is Impacting Country Risk Analysis
12(2)
Perception versus Reality of Risk: Does Terrorism Negatively Impact Foreign Direct Investment?
14(4)
Empirical Studies Can Yield Contradictory Results
15(3)
The Impact of Perception on Investment Decisions
18(8)
Risk Management versus Profit Maximization
20(1)
Be Wary of Statistics
20(3)
What Statistics Say about the Global Recovery since 2009
23(3)
Managing Country Risk in the "New Normal"
26(2)
Notes
28(3)
Chapter 2 Foundations of Country Risk Management
31(24)
Introduction
31(1)
Economic Nationalism in Pakistan
32(2)
Extractive Enterprises Are Particularly Vulnerable
33(1)
The Danger of Focusing Too Much on Net Income
34(1)
Bolivia's Mass Nationalizations
34(3)
The Importance of History
35(1)
Ramifications
36(1)
Papua New Guinea's Natural Resource Curse
37(5)
It Takes Two to Tango
38(2)
Systemic Corruption Creates Risk
40(1)
Lessons Unlearned
40(2)
Defining Country Risk
42(6)
Country versus Sovereign versus Political versus Transactional Risk
43(1)
How Banks Approach Transactional Risk Management
44(1)
The Lessons of the Asia Crisis
45(1)
Elements of an Effective Risk Management Process
46(2)
The Boardroom Vacuum
48(4)
The Impact on Firm Performance
51(1)
Separating Fact from Fiction
52(1)
Notes
53(2)
Chapter 3 Assessing Country Risk
55(20)
Introduction
55(2)
Information Sources
57(2)
Are Rating Agencies' Ratings Worth Using?
59(4)
Measuring Political Stability
63(5)
Comparing Indonesia and Vietnam
68(5)
Notes
73(2)
Chapter 4 Country Risk Assessment in Practice
75(22)
Creating a Risk Management Framework
75(7)
Selecting Country Risk Management Tools
82(5)
Economic Measures
86(1)
Mapping Out a Country Risk Analysis Methodology
87(3)
Alternative Measures of Country Risk
90(5)
Corruption Perceptions Index
90(1)
Democracy Index
90(1)
Freedom in the World
91(1)
Gini Coefficient
92(1)
Global Peace Index
93(1)
Human Development Index
93(2)
Youth Unemployment
95(1)
Conclusion
95(1)
Notes
96(1)
Chapter 5 Political Risk Insurance
97(44)
What Is Political Risk Insurance?
97(4)
Who Needs PRI?
101(1)
An Overview of Investment Insurance
101(9)
Expropriation
102(2)
Forced Abandonment/Key Operator's Endangerment
104(1)
Financed-Asset Nonrepossession
105(1)
Deprivation/Contingent Deprivation
105(1)
Currency Inconvertibility/Nontransfer
105(3)
Political Violence
108(1)
Breach of Contract
109(1)
An Overview of Trade Insurance
110(5)
Contract Frustration
111(1)
Non-Honoring of Letters of Credit
112(1)
Wrongful Calling of Guarantees
112(1)
Trade Disruption Insurance
113(1)
Other Categories
113(1)
Export Credit Insurance
114(1)
Underwriters and the Underwriting Process
115(10)
The Private Sector Players
116(1)
Chartis
116(1)
Lloyd's
116(1)
Sovereign
117(1)
Zurich
117(1)
Market Capacity
117(1)
Private Underwriters
117(1)
The Public Schemes
117(1)
The Underwriting Process
118(2)
Underwriting Trade Transactions
120(1)
Underwriting Export Credit Transactions
121(1)
Premium Rates
122(2)
Pricing Methodology
124(1)
Recoveries
124(1)
Reinsurance
125(1)
Case Study: Assessing the Risk of a Power Plant in Indonesia
125(11)
Case Study
127(1)
The Project
127(1)
Technical/Financial Viability
128(1)
Host Country Benefits
128(1)
Insurance Requirements
128(1)
Risk Assessment
129(1)
Expropriation
129(2)
Currency Inconvertibility
131(2)
Political Violence
133(2)
Breach of Contract
135(1)
The Impact of the Asia Crisis and Lessons Learned
136(2)
Notes
138(3)
Chapter 6 Tales from the Battle Zone
141(16)
How Easy It Is to Make Costly Mistakes
141(7)
A Telecommunications Company in Pakistan
141(1)
A Paper Company in Russia
142(1)
A Power Company in Brazil
142(1)
An Arab Oil Company in Saudi Arabia
142(1)
An Oil Company in Russia
143(1)
A Fast Food Chain in Palestine
144(1)
A Media Enterprise in the Czech Republic
145(1)
An Energy Company in Venezuela
145(1)
A Technology Company in South Korea
146(1)
A Bank in Ecuador
146(1)
A Pharmaceutical Company in Yugoslavia
147(1)
An Oil Company in Peru
147(1)
A Power Company in Canada
147(1)
The Failure of a Bank's Country Risk Management Program
148(7)
How the Program Was Revised
151(1)
Underwriting Information
152(1)
Creating an Operational Foundation
153(1)
Recoveries
154(1)
Note
155(2)
Chapter 7 The Importance of Understanding China and Its Place in the World
157(36)
Introduction
157(1)
Geopolitics with Chinese Characteristics
158(4)
China as the Aggressor---The Case of the Spratly Islands
162(3)
Asia Looks Nervously over Its Shoulder
165(3)
The Maturing Chinese-Saudi Arabian Alliance
168(9)
FDI with Chinese Characteristics
171(6)
China's Rare Earth Bravado
177(3)
China and the Power of the Dollar
179(1)
China's Great "Development" Challenge
180(2)
China's Real Estate Syndrome
182(3)
The Enigma of China's Middle Class
185(2)
Investor Beware
187(2)
Notes
189(4)
Chapter 8 Shifting Pendulums, Pressing Concerns, and the State of the World
193(36)
Introduction
193(1)
Brazil's and Turkey's Messages
194(3)
Brazil's and Turkey's Nuclear Ambitions
195(1)
Rising Tension with Turkey
196(1)
The Lesson to Be Learned
196(1)
Turkey's Foreign Policy Vision
197(5)
Turkish Foreign Policy: Moderation in the Extreme
198(1)
Is Turkey Really Rethinking Its Place in the World?
199(1)
Upheaval in the Middle East: An Opportunity for Turkey
200(2)
The Folly of Brazil's Exceptionalism
202(4)
To BRIC or Not to BRIC---That Is the Question
203(1)
Too Big for Its Britches
204(1)
Pursuit of Autonomy versus an Adversarial Role
205(1)
Aid Recipient and Provider
205(1)
Its Own Worst Enemy
206(1)
BRICs Form Unstable Foundation for Multilateral Action
206(2)
Iraq's Democratic Experiment
208(4)
Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua: Lofty Idealism versus Hard-Nosed Politics
212(3)
India's Ongoing Concerns about Pakistan and Afghanistan
215(3)
Globalization Will Not Change Some Things
218(8)
Notes
226(3)
Appendix
229(32)
Country Risk Management Dictionary of Key Terms
231(28)
I Country Risk Concepts
232(17)
II Political Risk Insurance
249(10)
Notes
259(2)
Bibliography 261(4)
Index 265
Daniel Wagner is the Founder and CEO of Country Risk Solutions (CRS), a cross-border risk advisory firm based in Connecticut (USA). Prior to founding CRS, Daniel was Senior Vice President of Country Risk at GE Energy Financial Services where he was part of a team investing billions of dollars annually into global energy projects. Daniel was responsible for advising senior management on a variety of country risk-related issues, strategic planning, and portfolio management. He created a Center of Excellence for country risk analysis in GE and led a team that produced a comprehensive automated country risk rating methodology.

He began his career underwriting Political Risk Insurance (PRI) at AIG in New York and subsequently spent five years as Guarantee Officer for the Asia Region at the World Bank Groups Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency in Washington, D.C. During that time he was responsible for underwriting PRI for projects in a dozen Asian countries. After then serving as Regional Manager for Political Risks for Southeast Asia and Greater China for AIG in Singapore, Daniel moved to Manila, Philippines where he was Guarantee and Risk Management Advisor, Political Risk Guarantee Specialist, and Senior Guarantees and Syndications Specialist for the Asian Development Banks Office of Co-financing Operations. Over the course of his quarter century-long career Daniel has also held senior positions in the PRI brokerage business in London, Dallas and Houston.

Daniel has published hundreds of articles on risk management and current affairs, is a non-resident scholar at the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, and a regular contributor to foreignpolicyjournal.com, the Huffington Post and International Risk Management Institute (IRMI). His editorials have been published in such notable newspapers as the International Herald Tribune and the Wall Street Journal. His first book - Political Risk Insurance Guide - was published by IRMI.

He holds masters degrees in International Relations from the University of Chicago and in International Management from the American Graduate School of International Management (Thunderbird) in Phoenix. Daniel received his bachelors degree in Political Science from Richmond College in London. Daniel can be reached at daniel.wagner@countryrisksolutions.com or through www.countryrisksolutions.com.