E-grāmata: Meteorology at the Millennium

Foreword xi Preface xiii Contributors xv Part
1. Weather Prediction at the Millennium Predicting Uncertainty in Numerical Weather Forecasts T. N. Palmer Introduction 3(1) The Liouville Equation 3(2) The Probability Density Function of Model Error 5(2) Probability Forecasting by Ensemble Prediction 7(3) Verifying Probability Forecasts 10(1) The Economic Value of Probability Forecasts 11(1) Concluding Remarks 12(2) References 12(2) Extratropical Cyclones An Historical Perspective A. J. Thorpe Introduction 14(1) The Thermal Theory 14(1) The Bergen School 15(2) Baroclinic Instability Model 17(1) Potential Vorticity Ideas 18(2) Predictability, Forecasting and Observations 20(1) The Future 21(2) References 22(1) Numerical Methods for Atmospheric General Circulation Models Refinements or Fundamental Advances? D. L. Williamson Numerical Weather Prediction 23(1) Climate Models 24(1) NWP Versus Climate Modelling 25(1) Future Evolution of Numerics 26(3) References 27(2) Mesoscale Mountains and the Larger-scale Atmospheric Dynamics A Review C. Schar Introduction 29(1) Regime Diagram for Flow Past Topography 30(4) Balanced Solutions 30(1) Wake Formation and Transition into the Dissipative Regime 30(3) Flow Regimes for Major Topographic Obstacles 33(1) Interactions with the Balanced Larger-Scale Dynamics 34(3) Surface Potential Temperature Anomalies 34(1) Potential Vorticity Anomalies 35(2) Numerical Simulations of Alpine Wakes 37(2) Outlook 39(4) References 41(2) The Upscale Turbulent Cascade Shear Layers, Cyclones and Gas Giant Bands W. R. Peltier G. R. Stuhne Introduction 43(1) Pairing in Unstratified Shear Flow 44(4) Pairing in Rotating Stratified Flow: Subsynoptic Baroclinic Instability 48(3) Pairing in Vortex Dynamics on the Sphere: Rossby-Wave Arrest of the Upscale Cascade and the ``Parity of Gas Giant Bands 51(8) Conclusions 59(3) References 60(2) The Role of Water in Atmospheric Dynamics and Climate K. A. Emanuel Historical Overview 62(2) Water in Atmospheric Dynamics 64(5) Zonally Symmetrical Equilibrium States 64(1) Baroclinic Instability 65(1) The Tropics 66(3) Water in the Climate System 69(1) Summary 70(2) References 71(1) New Observational Technologies Scientific and Societal Impacts F. Fabry I. Zawadzki Introduction 72(1) Remote Sensing of the Atmosphere 72(1) Remote Sensors and their Scientific Impacts 73(7) Air Temperature and Moisture 73(1) Clouds and Precipitation 74(1) Wind 75(3) Others 78(1) Related Scientific Considerations 79(1) Societal Impacts 80(1) Conclusions 81(2) References 82(1) Turning Dynamical Ideas into Forecast Practice A Proposal for a Renewed Graphical Summary of the Synoptic Scale Situation A. Joly P. Santurette Introduction 83(1) The Existing Graphical Summary Map: Its Importance and Its Problems 84(2) Historical Perspective 86(2) The Original Intent of the Bergen Method 86(1) Evolution of the Form of the Graphical Summary 87(1) Rationale of a Dynamically Grounded Synoptic Summary 88(2) Examples of Use of the New Graphical Framework 90(8) A Large Transoceanic Cloud Band 90(6) Comma-Cloud-Baraclinic-Zone Interaction 96(1) Blocking 96(1) A Summer Situation 96(2) Potential for Upgrading 98(3) Towards a Dual Representation of Meteorological Structures: Graphical Objects and Field Anomalies 98(2) Towards a Subjective Forecast that Looks Like a Numerical Model Output 100(1) Conclusion 101(5) Appendix: The Graphical Code of Anasyg and Presyg 102(2) References 104(2) Weather Forecasting From Woolly Art to Solid Science P. Lynch The Prehistory of Scientific Forecasting 106(4) Vilhelm Bjerknes 106(2) Lewis Fry Richardson 108(1) Richardsons Forecast 109(1) The Beginning of Modern Numerical Weather Prediction 110(3) John von Neumann and the Meteorology Project 110(1) The ENIAC Integrations 111(1) The Barotropic Model 112(1) Primitive Equation Models 113(1) Numerical Weather Prediction Today 113(3) Ecmwf 114(2) Hirlam 116(1) Conclusions 116(7) References 118(5) Part
2. Climate Variability and Change Problems in Quantifying Natural and Anthropogenic Perturbations to the Earths Energy Balance K. P. Shine E. J. Highwood Introduction 123(1) Estimates of the Global-Mean Radiative Forcing 124(2) Time Variation of Radiative Forcing 126(3) Developments in Studies of the Indirect Aerosol Effect 129(1) Concluding Remarks 130(3) References 131(2) Changes in Climate and Variability over the Last 1000 Years P. D. Jones Introduction 133(1) The Instrumental Period (1850-) 133(4) Early European Instrumental Records 137(1) The Pre-Instrumental Period (Back to 1000) 137(3) Palaeoclimatic Sources 137(1) Multiproxy Averages from High-Frequency Sources 138(1) Low-Frequency Sources 139(1) Discussion and Conclusions 140(3) The Instrumental Period 140(1) The Last 1000 Years 140(1) References 141(2) Climatic Variability over the North Atlantic J. Hurrell M. P. Hoerling C. K. Folland Introduction 143(1) What is the North Atlantic Oscillation and How Does it Impact Regional Climate? 143(1) What are the Mechanisms that Govern North Atlantic Oscillation Variability? 144(5) Atmospheric Processes 144(2) Ocean Forcing of the Atmosphere 146(3) Concluding Comments on the Other Aspects of North Atlantic Climate Variability 149(3) References 150(2) Prediction and Detection of Anthropogenic Climate Change J. F. B. Mitchell Introduction 152(1) An Early General Circulation Model Simulation of the Climatic Effects of Increases in Greenhouse Gases 152(1) A Recent Simulation of the Effects of Increases in Greenhouse Gases 153(5) Detection and Attribution of Anthropogenic Climate Change 158(4) Some Concluding Remarks 162(3) References 163(2) Absorption of Solar Radiation in the Atmosphere Reconciling Models with Measurements A. Slingo Introduction 165(1) The Global Radiation Balance 165(1) Satellite Measurements 166(2) Absorption by the Surface 168(1) Absorption by the Atmosphere 168(4) Discussion 172(2) References 172(2) The Impact of Satellite Observations of the Earths Spectrum on Climate Research J. E. Harries The Climate Change Detection and Attribution Problem 174(1) Satellite Spectral Signatures of Climate Change 175(1) Recent Work on Spectral Signatures 176(1) Iris and IMG: Change of Olr(v) Between 1970 and 1997 177(1) Previous Broad Band Measurements 177(1) Spectrally Resolved Data 177(1) Analysis of IMG and Iris Data 178(3) Accuracy 178(1) Validation 178(1) Results 178(3) Cloudy Scenes 181(1) Summary 181(4) References 182(3) Part
3. The Atmosphere and Oceans Atlantic Air-Sea Interaction Revisited M. J. Rodwell Introduction 185(1) Data and Models 186(1) The Analysis Method 187(1) Atmospheric Forcing of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures 188(2) North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Forcing of the Atmosphere 190(4) Observational Evidence 190(3) Model Results 193(1) Potential Seasonal Predictability Based on the Atmosphere General Circulation Model 194(1) Conclusions and Discussion 195(3) References 197(1) The Monsoon as a Self-regulating Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere System P. J. Webster C. Clark G. Cherikova J. Fasullo W. Han J. Loschnigg K. Sahami Introduction 198(3) Regulation of the Monsoon Annual Cycle 201(5) The Climatological Annual Cycle 201(2) Processes Determining the Annual Cycle of the Monsoon 203(1) Role of Ocean Dynamics in the Annual Heat Balance of the Indian Ocean 204(1) Regulation of the Annual Cycle of the Monsoon: an Ocean-Atmosphere Feedback System 205(1) Interannual Variability of the Monsoon 206(8) Modes of Interannual Variability in the Monsoon 207(5) Interannual Modes in Ocean Heat Transport 212(1) Interannual Regulation of the Monsoon 212(2) General Theory of Regulation of the Coupled Ocean-Atmospheric Monsoon System 214(1) Conclusions 214(6) References 217(3) Laminar Flow in the Ocean Ekman Layer J. T. H. Woods Introduction 220(1) The Effect of a Stable Density Gradient 220(1) The Fatal Flaw 221(1) Flow Visualization 222(1) The Discovery of Laminar Flow 222(1) Fine Structure 222(1) Wave-Induced Shear Instability 222(1) Billow Turbulence 223(1) Reverse Transition 224(1) Revised Paradigm 224(1) One-Dimensional Modelling of the Upper Ocean 224(1) Diurnal Variation 225(1) Buoyant Convection 225(1) Billow Turbulence in the Diurnal Thermocline 225(1) Consequences for the Ekman Current Profile 225(1) Solar Radiation 226(1) Applications 226(5) Slippery Seas of Acapulco 226(1) Pollution 226(4) Afternoon Effect in Sonar 230(1) Patchiness 230(1) Fisheries 230(1) Climate 230(1) Discussion 231(1) Conclusion 231(2) References 231(2) Ocean Observations and the Climate Forecast Problem C. Wunsch Introduction 233(1) Some History: Observational and Theoretical 233(1) The Perception 234(4) The Reality 238(4) Conclusions Based Upon Misapprehensions 242(1) Where Do We Go From Here? 243(6) References 245(4) Part
4. The Biogeochemical System Biochemical Connections Between the Atmosphere and the Ocean P. S. Liss Introduction 249(1) The Chemical Composition of the Earths Atmosphere 250(1) Air-Sea Exchange of Gases of Importance 250(3) Ozone 250(1) Manmade Carbon Dioxide 250(1) Dimethyl Sulphide 251(1) Dimethyl Selenide 252(1) Ammonia 253(1) Impact of Atmospheric Dust on Ocean Biochemistry 253(3) Global Perspectives on Biogeochemical Fluxes Across the Air-Sea Interface 256(3) DMS and the CLAW Hypothesis 256(1) Iron 257(1) References 257(2) Modelling Vegetation and the Carbon Cycle as Interactive Elements of the Climate system P. M. Cox R. A. Betts C. D. Jones S. A. Spall I. J. Totterdell Introduction 259(1) Model Description 260(4) Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3L) 260(1) The Hadley Centre Ocean Carbon Cycle Model (HadOCC) 260(2) The Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (Triffid) 262(2) Pre-Industrial State 264(4) Spin-up Methodology 264(1) The Mean Pre-industrial State 265(3) A First Transient Climate-Carbon Cycle Simulation 268(4) 1860-2000 271(1) 2000-2100 271(1) Discussion 272(4) Sink-to-source Transitions in the Terrestrial Carbon Cycle 272(4) Conclusions 276(7) References 277(6) Part
5. Middle Atmosphere and Solar Physics: Other Planets and Epochs Some Fundamental Aspects of Atmospheric Dynamics, with a Solar Spinoff M. E. McIntyre Introduction 283(1) Thermal and Chemical Evidence 284(3) Wave-Induced Momentum Transport: Some Simple Examples 287(2) The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) 289(2) The Michelson-Morley Principle 291(1) The Nonacceleration Constraint 291(1) Extratropical Latitudes 291(1) Gyroscopic Pumping 292(2) Rossby- and Gravity-Wave Breaking 294(1) The Jigsaw Puzzle: Barotropic Models 295(4) Generalization to Realistic Stratified Flow 299(1) The Suns Radiative Interior 299(7) Inevitability of a Magnetic Field 299(3) The Tachopause and the Lithium Problem 302(1) References 303(3) Atmospheric Dynamics of the Outer Planets A. P. Ingersoll Introduction 306(1) Voyager Observations of Winds and Temperatures 306(2) Models of Vortices in Shear 308(1) Galileo Probe and Vertical Structure 309(3) Galileo Orbiter Observations of Water and Lightning 312(4) References 315(1) Palaeoclimate Studies at the Millennium The Role of the Coupled System P. J. Valdes Introduction 316(1) Pre-Quaternary Palaeoclimates 316(2) Quaternary Palaeoclimates 318(1) Observational Evidence 318(1) Modelling Studies 319(4) Suborbital Timescale Variability 323(1) Conclusions 323(4) References 324(3) Index 327