Preface |
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vii | |
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1 Financial markets for weather |
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1 | (16) |
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1.1 The use of weather derivatives |
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1 | (3) |
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1.2 Markets for weather derivatives |
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4 | (7) |
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1.2.1 Temperature derivatives |
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4 | (3) |
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1.2.2 Derivatives on wind speed |
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7 | (1) |
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1.2.3 Precipitation derivatives |
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8 | (1) |
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1.2.4 Other weather derivatives |
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9 | (2) |
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1.3 A brief outlook of the monograph |
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11 | (6) |
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15 | (2) |
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2 Data description and exploratory analysis |
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17 | (18) |
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17 | (1) |
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18 | (1) |
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19 | (3) |
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22 | (2) |
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2.5 Spatial statistics and spatial-temporal modelling |
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24 | (5) |
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2.6 Stochastic weather modelling - literature overview |
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29 | (6) |
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30 | (1) |
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31 | (2) |
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33 | (2) |
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3 Spatial-temporal modelling |
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35 | (42) |
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3.1 The modelling approach |
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35 | (2) |
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3.2 Spatial-temporal model for temperature and wind speed |
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37 | (29) |
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3.2.1 Marginal modelling of temperature and wind speed |
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39 | (1) |
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3.2.2 Spatial modelling of temperature and wind speed |
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40 | (1) |
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3.2.3 Estimation of the marginal temperature model |
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40 | (8) |
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3.2.4 Estimation of spatial temperature model |
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48 | (3) |
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3.2.5 A critical view on temporal temperature modelling |
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51 | (3) |
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3.2.6 Estimation of wind speed model |
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54 | (12) |
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3.3 Temporal modelling of precipitation |
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66 | (11) |
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3.3.1 Estimation of precipitation time series model |
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67 | (3) |
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3.3.2 Validation of precipitation time series model |
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70 | (5) |
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75 | (2) |
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4 Continuous-time models for temperature and wind speed |
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77 | (30) |
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77 | (5) |
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4.2 Simulation of CARMA processes |
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82 | (3) |
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4.3 Linking CARMA to ARMA |
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85 | (3) |
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4.4 Recovering the states I: the Kalman filter |
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88 | (3) |
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4.5 Recovering the states II: an approxmative L1-filter |
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91 | (5) |
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4.6 CARMA models for temperature and wind speed |
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96 | (7) |
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4.6.1 A model for temperature |
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97 | (2) |
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4.6.2 A model for wind speed |
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99 | (4) |
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4.7 Speed of reversion to the mean: the half-life |
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103 | (4) |
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5 Pricing of forward contracts on temperature and wind speed |
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107 | (32) |
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5.1 Theory on pricing forwards |
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107 | (4) |
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5.1.1 Pricing by burn analysis |
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110 | (1) |
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5.2 A structure preserving class of measure changes |
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111 | (7) |
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5.3 Pricing temperature forwards |
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118 | (6) |
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5.4 Analysis of temperature futures prices |
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124 | (10) |
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5.4.1 Temperature futures prices and the states of temperature |
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124 | (4) |
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5.4.2 The theoretical risk premium of temperature |
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128 | (4) |
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5.4.3 The Samuelson effect |
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132 | (2) |
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5.5 Pricing wind speed forwards |
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134 | (5) |
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6 Extensions of temperature and wind speed models |
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139 | (18) |
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6.1 Stochastic temperature volatility |
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139 | (4) |
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6.2 Brownian semistationary processes |
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143 | (4) |
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147 | (10) |
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7 Options on temperature and wind |
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157 | (22) |
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7.1 Options on temperature futures |
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157 | (9) |
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7.2 Options on wind speed futures |
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166 | (4) |
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170 | (9) |
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7.3.1 A simple spatial-temporal model for temperature |
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172 | (2) |
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7.3.2 Computation of the optimal geographical hedge |
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174 | (5) |
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8 Precipitation derivatives |
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179 | (18) |
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8.1 A continuous-time model for precipitation |
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179 | (9) |
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8.1.1 A class of independent increment processes |
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180 | (2) |
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8.1.2 A stochastic model of precipitation |
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182 | (6) |
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8.2 Pricing derivatives on precipitation |
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188 | (9) |
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8.2.1 The Esscher transform for independent increment processes |
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189 | (3) |
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192 | (5) |
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9 Utility-based approaches to pricing weather derivatives |
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197 | (32) |
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197 | (17) |
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9.1.1 Application to the pricing of rainfall derivatives |
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209 | (5) |
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9.2 Fair pricing by benchmarking to a reference index |
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214 | (2) |
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9.3 Pricing by marginal utility |
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216 | (10) |
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9.4 The equilibrium approach by Cao and Wei |
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226 | (3) |
Appendix A List of abbreviations |
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229 | (2) |
Bibliography |
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231 | (10) |
Index |
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241 | |