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E-grāmata: Modeling and Pricing in Financial Markets for Weather Derivatives [World Scientific e-book]

(Univ Of Oslo, Norway), (Univ Of Oslo, Norway)
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Weather derivatives provide a tool for weather risk management, and the markets for these exotic financial products are gradually emerging in size and importance. This unique monograph presents a unified approach to the modeling and analysis of such weather derivatives, including financial contracts on temperature, wind and rain. Based on a deep statistical analysis of weather factors, sophisticated stochastic processes are introduced modeling the time and space dynamics. Applying ideas from the modern theory of mathematical finance, weather derivatives are priced, and questions of hedging analyzed. The treatise contains an in-depth analysis of typical weather contracts traded at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), including so-called CDD and HDD futures. The statistical analysis of weather variables are based on a large data set from Lithuania.The monograph includes the research done by the authors over the last decade on weather markets. Their work has gained considerable attention, and has been applied in many contexts.
Preface vii
1 Financial markets for weather
1(16)
1.1 The use of weather derivatives
1(3)
1.2 Markets for weather derivatives
4(7)
1.2.1 Temperature derivatives
4(3)
1.2.2 Derivatives on wind speed
7(1)
1.2.3 Precipitation derivatives
8(1)
1.2.4 Other weather derivatives
9(2)
1.3 A brief outlook of the monograph
11(6)
Statistics of weather
15(2)
2 Data description and exploratory analysis
17(18)
2.1 Data
17(1)
2.2 Temperature
18(1)
2.3 Wind
19(3)
2.4 Precipitation
22(2)
2.5 Spatial statistics and spatial-temporal modelling
24(5)
2.6 Stochastic weather modelling - literature overview
29(6)
2.6.1 Temperature
30(1)
2.6.2 Wind
31(2)
2.6.3 Precipitation
33(2)
3 Spatial-temporal modelling
35(42)
3.1 The modelling approach
35(2)
3.2 Spatial-temporal model for temperature and wind speed
37(29)
3.2.1 Marginal modelling of temperature and wind speed
39(1)
3.2.2 Spatial modelling of temperature and wind speed
40(1)
3.2.3 Estimation of the marginal temperature model
40(8)
3.2.4 Estimation of spatial temperature model
48(3)
3.2.5 A critical view on temporal temperature modelling
51(3)
3.2.6 Estimation of wind speed model
54(12)
3.3 Temporal modelling of precipitation
66(11)
3.3.1 Estimation of precipitation time series model
67(3)
3.3.2 Validation of precipitation time series model
70(5)
Weather derivatives
75(2)
4 Continuous-time models for temperature and wind speed
77(30)
4.1 CARMA models
77(5)
4.2 Simulation of CARMA processes
82(3)
4.3 Linking CARMA to ARMA
85(3)
4.4 Recovering the states I: the Kalman filter
88(3)
4.5 Recovering the states II: an approxmative L1-filter
91(5)
4.6 CARMA models for temperature and wind speed
96(7)
4.6.1 A model for temperature
97(2)
4.6.2 A model for wind speed
99(4)
4.7 Speed of reversion to the mean: the half-life
103(4)
5 Pricing of forward contracts on temperature and wind speed
107(32)
5.1 Theory on pricing forwards
107(4)
5.1.1 Pricing by burn analysis
110(1)
5.2 A structure preserving class of measure changes
111(7)
5.3 Pricing temperature forwards
118(6)
5.4 Analysis of temperature futures prices
124(10)
5.4.1 Temperature futures prices and the states of temperature
124(4)
5.4.2 The theoretical risk premium of temperature
128(4)
5.4.3 The Samuelson effect
132(2)
5.5 Pricing wind speed forwards
134(5)
6 Extensions of temperature and wind speed models
139(18)
6.1 Stochastic temperature volatility
139(4)
6.2 Brownian semistationary processes
143(4)
6.3 Fractional models
147(10)
7 Options on temperature and wind
157(22)
7.1 Options on temperature futures
157(9)
7.2 Options on wind speed futures
166(4)
7.3 Geographical hedging
170(9)
7.3.1 A simple spatial-temporal model for temperature
172(2)
7.3.2 Computation of the optimal geographical hedge
174(5)
8 Precipitation derivatives
179(18)
8.1 A continuous-time model for precipitation
179(9)
8.1.1 A class of independent increment processes
180(2)
8.1.2 A stochastic model of precipitation
182(6)
8.2 Pricing derivatives on precipitation
188(9)
8.2.1 The Esscher transform for independent increment processes
189(3)
8.2.2 Pricing
192(5)
9 Utility-based approaches to pricing weather derivatives
197(32)
9.1 Indifference pricing
197(17)
9.1.1 Application to the pricing of rainfall derivatives
209(5)
9.2 Fair pricing by benchmarking to a reference index
214(2)
9.3 Pricing by marginal utility
216(10)
9.4 The equilibrium approach by Cao and Wei
226(3)
Appendix A List of abbreviations 229(2)
Bibliography 231(10)
Index 241