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E-grāmata: Monitoring the Health of Populations by Tracking Disease Outbreaks: Saving Humanity from the Next Plague

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With COVID-19 sweeping across the globe with near impunity, it is thwarting governments and health organizations efforts to contain it. Not since the 1918 Spanish Flu have citizens of developed countries experienced such a large-scale disease outbreak that is having devastating health and economic impacts. One reason such outbreaks are not more common has been the success of the public health community, including epidemiologists and biostatisticians, in identifying and then mitigating or eliminating the outbreaks.

Monitoring the Health of Populations by Tracking Disease Outbreaks: Saving Humanity from the Next Plague is the story of the application of statistics for disease detection and tracking. The work of public health officials often crucially depends on statistical methods to help discern whether an outbreak may be occurring and, if there is sufficient evidence of an outbreak, then to locate and track it. Statisticians also help collect critical information, and they analyze the resulting data to help investigators zero in on a cause for a disease. With the recent outbreaks of diseases such as swine and bird flu, Ebola, and now COVID-19, the role that epidemiologists and biostatisticians play is more important than ever.

Features:

· Discusses the crucial roles of statistics in early disease detection.

· Outlines the concepts and methods of disease surveillance.

· Covers surveillance techniques for communicable diseases like Zika and chronic diseases such as cancer.

· Gives real world examples of disease investigations including smallpox, syphilis, anthrax, yellow fever, and microcephaly (and its relationship to the Zika virus).

Via the process of identifying an outbreak, finding its cause, and developing a plan to prevent its reoccurrence, this book tells the story of how medical and public health professionals use statistics to help mitigate the effects of disease. This book will help readers understand how statisticians and epidemiologists help combat the spread of such diseases in order to improve public health across the world.
Preface xi
Authors xv
Chapter 1 The Next Plague
1(22)
1.1 Understanding Pandemics
4(5)
1.2 Modeling Pandemics
9(6)
1.3 John Snow and Cholera
15(3)
1.4 About the Rest of This Book
18(5)
Section I Disease Surveillance
Chapter 2 Separating Signal from Noise
23(16)
2.1 What is "Signal" and What is "Noise"?
24(4)
2.2 Quantifying the Noise
28(3)
2.3 Looking for a Signal Over Time
31(4)
2.4 Cyclic Patterns in Disease
35(4)
Chapter 3 Types of Public Health Surveillance
39(8)
3.1 Epidemiologic Surveillance
41(1)
3.2 Zoonotic Surveillance
42(2)
3.3 Agricultural Surveillance
44(3)
Chapter 4 Traditional Surveillance
47(14)
4.1 Summarizing Data
47(4)
4.2 The Historical Limits Method
51(3)
4.3 Tracking Diseases Over Space and Time
54(7)
Chapter 5 Syndromic Surveillance
61(14)
5.1 What is a Syndrome?
62(4)
5.2 Syndromic Surveillance Systems
66(3)
5.3 Example: H1N1 in Monterey, Ca
69(6)
Chapter 6 Indirect Approaches
75(16)
6.1 Google Flu Trends
76(4)
6.2 Social Media
80(2)
6.3 Prediction Markets
82(9)
Section II Disease Investigations
Chapter 7 Steps in Investigating an Outbreak
91(22)
7.1 Steps in Outbreak Investigation
92(4)
7.2 Determining Who Has the Disease
96(5)
7.3 Determining the Probability of Having the Disease
101(3)
7.4 Determining the Cause of a Disease
104(4)
7.5 Study Design
108(5)
Chapter 8 The Nipah Virus
113(8)
8.1 Initial Suspect: Japanese Encephalitis
113(4)
8.2 The Nipah Virus Returns
117(1)
8.3 Solving the Mystery
118(3)
Chapter 9 Smallpox and the Aralsk Incident
121(12)
9.1 Smallpox Vaccine
121(3)
9.2 Smallpox Outbreak at Aralsk
124(6)
9.3 Questions and More Questions
130(3)
Chapter 10 Syphilis and the Internet
133(10)
10.1 An Outbreak in San Francisco
134(4)
10.2 The Intervention
138(5)
Chapter 11 The 2001 Anthrax Attack
143(10)
11.1 The First Signs
144(2)
11.2 Some Evidence
146(4)
11.3 Winding Down
150(1)
11.4 Waning of the Crisis
151(2)
Chapter 12 Cancer in Los Alamos
153(10)
12.1 Initial Suspicions
153(2)
12.2 The Data
155(4)
12.3 The Effects of Covariates Other Than Age
159(4)
Chapter 13 Discovering the Cause of Yellow Fever
163(16)
13.1 Dr. Finlay and the Mosquito Theory
165(2)
13.2 The Yellow Fever Board
167(5)
13.3 Better Experiments: Camp Lazear
172(7)
Chapter 14 Microcephaly and Zika
179(12)
14.1 Other Explanations
182(1)
14.2 Evidence
183(4)
14.3 Other Possible Causes
187(4)
Chapter 15 In Conclusion
191(4)
15.1 Further Reading
192(3)
Index 195
Dr. Steven E. Rigdon is a professor in the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics in the College for Public Health & Social Justice at Saint Louis University. He holds a Ph.D. and an M.A. in Statistics from the University of Missouri-Columbia, as well as an M.A. and B.A. in Mathematics, from the University of Missouri-St. Louis. He is also Distinguished Research Professor Emeritus in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics at Southern Illinois University Edwardsville. Author of several books, including Statistical Methods for the Reliability of Repairable Systems published by John Wiley & Sons, and Calculus, 8th Ed. published by Pearson, Dr. Rigdon has published more than 80 peer-reviewed journal articles and book chapters. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association (ASA) and a member of the International Society for Disease Surveillance. He is also editor of Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. In his spare time, Dr. Rigdon plays the french horn and trumpet and he is an ice hockey official.

Dr. Ronald D. Fricker, Jr. is the Associate Dean for Faculty Affairs and Administration in the Virginia Tech College of Science. He is also a professor in the Virginia Tech Department of Statistics and is a past head of the department. He holds a Ph.D. and an M.S. in Statistics from Yale University, an M.S. in Operations Research from The George Washington University and a bachelors degree from the United States Naval Academy. Author of Introduction to Statistical Methods for Biosurveillance published by Cambridge University Press and nearly 100 papers, monographs, reports, and articles, Dr. Fricker is Fellow of the American Statistical Association and an Elected Member of the International Statistical Institute. He is a former chair of the Section on Statistics in Defense and National Security and a former chair of the Committee on Statisticians in Defense and National Security, both of the ASA.
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