"War in the Taiwan Strait is neither imminent nor probable. However, Beijing, Taipei, and Washington each face the "Yizhou Dilemma" that neither action nor inaction would lead to desirable outcomes"--
The Myth of War in the Taiwan Strait: Elite Perspectives from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington amid the Yizhou Dilemma proposes a new framework of the Yizhou dilemma to capture the conundrum faced by a hegemony (the U.S.), a rising power (Mainland China), and the weaker third entity (Taiwan) crucial to the rising powers ascendance. Taiyi Sun and Dennis Lu-Cheng Weng, drawing evidence from the assessments and perceptions of directly involved elites from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, argue war is not imminent, yet action or inaction by each party could potentially lead to detrimental outcomes. For the rising power, overexpansion incurs significant costs, but restraint makes it unable to attain major power status. Consequently, low-cost symbolic shows of force are more likely than a full invasion of the third entity. For the strategically vital yet relatively weaker entity, asserting autonomy and independence to put up a fight would risk escalating tension and trigger aggressive behaviors from the rising power. Yet, maintaining the status quo would allow the rising power to continue strengthening itself so that a coerced unification unfavorable to the weaker entity could become more probable. For the hegemony, leaving more looming challenges elsewhere unresolved could diminish the power of the hegemony, but getting involved leads to even more challenges.
War in the Taiwan Strait is neither imminent nor probable. However, Beijing, Taipei, and Washington each face the Yizhou Dilemma that neither action nor inaction would lead to desirable outcomes.
Recenzijas
In this innovative book, The Myth of War in the Taiwan Strait, Taiyi Sun and Dennis Weng draw insights from a strikingly similar conflict during the ancient Three Kingdoms period. Deploying rarely accessible interviews and surveys, they uncover what US, China, and Taiwan each must weigh in their decisions on war. -- Yong Deng, U.S. Naval Academy Prevailing policy discourse on the acute danger of war over Taiwan remains one-sided and myopic. Professors Sun and Weng provide an important counter argument based on close assessment of a comparable crisis in Chinas past along with analysis of recent surveys of elite opinion in Taiwan, mainland China and the United States. The supporting prefaces of Ma Ying-jeou, Jia Qingguo and Richard Bush are noteworthy. -- Robert G. Sutter, professor of International Affairs, George Washington University Move over, Thucydides! To western scholars asserting that war in the Taiwan Strait is likely because Sparta and Athens got into a war 2400 years ago, this book offers a sensible riposte: isnt Chinas own history at least as relevant? And shouldnt you learn some of it? Drawing on elite interviews, public opinion surveys and yes, important examples from Chinas own turbulent history Taiyi Sun and Dennis Weng push back against the prevailing sense of doom and gloom to present an original and nuanced assessment of the prospects for peace in the Taiwan Strait. -- Kharis Templeman, Hoover Institution, Stanford University The Myth of War in the Taiwan Strait should be required reading for anyone interested in cross-Strait relations. Professors Sun and Weng make adept use of historical parallels, novel survey data, and interviews with elite policymakers to produce a nuanced assessment of the prospects for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Their important study belongs on bookshelves next to Richard Bushs Difficult Choices, Scott Kastners War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait, and Ketian Zhangs Chinas Gambit. -- Michael A. Hunzeker, Associate Professor, Schar School of Policy & Government
Papildus informācija
War in the Taiwan Strait is neither imminent nor probable. However, Beijing, Taipei, and Washington each face the Yizhou Dilemma that neither action nor inaction would lead to desirable outcomes.
Chapter
1. The Myth of War in the Taiwan Strait and the Yizhou Dilemma
Chapter
2. The Origin of the Taiwan Question and Where We Are Now
Chapter
3. Elite Survey Results from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington: Perceptions of War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait
Chapter
4. Elite Interviews and Focus Group Results from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington: Key Debates on War and Peace in the Taiwan Strait
Chapter
5. Do Decision Makers and the People Think Alike? The Perception Differences between the Elites and the Public
Chapter
6. Assessment by the Highest-Level Elites from Mainland China
Chapter
7. Assessment by the Highest-Level Elites from the Republic of China on Taiwan
Chapter
8. Assessment by the Highest-Level Elites from the U.S.
Chapter
9. The Yizhou Dilemma and the Prospects of the Taiwan Strait
Dr. Taiyi Sun is associate professor of political science at Christopher Newport University.
Dr. Dennis Lu-Chung Weng is associate professor of political science at Sam Houston State University and the founding director of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Institute (APPRI).
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