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E-grāmata: Nature of Change or the Law of Unintended Consequences: An Introductory Text to Designing Complex Systems and Managing Change [World Scientific e-book]

(Univ Of South Australia, Australia)
  • Formāts: 212 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 24-Mar-2010
  • Izdevniecība: Imperial College Press
  • ISBN-13: 9781848165410
  • World Scientific e-book
  • Cena: 71,21 €*
  • * this price gives unlimited concurrent access for unlimited time
  • Formāts: 212 pages
  • Izdošanas datums: 24-Mar-2010
  • Izdevniecība: Imperial College Press
  • ISBN-13: 9781848165410
This absorbing book provides a broad introduction to the surprising nature of change, and explains how the Law of Unintended Consequences arises from the waves of change following one simple change. Change is a constant topic of discussion, whether be it on climate, politics, technology, or any of the many other changes in our lives. However, does anyone truly understand what change is?Over time, mankind has deliberately built social and technology based systems that are goal-directed there are goals to achieve and requirements to be met. Building such systems is man's way of planning for the future, and these plans are based on predicting the behavior of the system and its environment, at specified times in the future. Unfortunately, in a truly complex social or technical environment, this planned predictability can break down into a morass of surprising and unexpected consequences. Such unpredictability stems from the propagation of the effects of change through the influence of one event on another.The Nature of Change explains in detail the mechanism of change and will serve as an introduction to complex systems, or as complementary reading for systems engineering. This textbook will be especially useful to professionals in system building or business change management, and to students studying systems in a variety of fields such as information technology, business, law and society.
List of Tables
ix
List of Figures
xi
Chapter 1 What Do We Mean by Change?
3(8)
The Study of Change
8(3)
Chapter 2 Some Definitions
11(10)
Natural Systems
11(1)
Artificial Systems
11(1)
Social Systems
12(1)
Technical Systems
12(1)
Socio-Technical Systems
12(1)
A System
13(1)
Complicated System
13(1)
Complex System
14(1)
A Component's Environment
15(1)
Co-Evolutionary Systems
16(1)
Thresholds
17(1)
Propagation
17(1)
Initial Conditions
18(1)
Design Space
18(3)
Chapter 3 Failure by Design
21(6)
Socio-Technical Design Failure
21(6)
Chapter 4 Influence, Boundaries and Structure
27(14)
Examples
27(2)
Influence
29(2)
Boundaries
31(2)
Organisation or Network Structure
33(1)
Regular Networks
33(1)
Random Networks
34(1)
Small-World Networks
34(2)
Layered and Hierarchic Aspects
36(1)
Systems have a Past and a Future
37(1)
Layers of Change
37(4)
Chapter 5 Change in Complex Systems
41(18)
Fitness and Change
43(4)
Change in an N-dimensional Design Space
47(3)
The Co-Evolutionary Process
50(2)
The Threshold
52(3)
Resistance to Change
55(4)
Chapter 6 Propagation
59(8)
The Temporal Effect
60(1)
An Illustration of Propagation in a Model
61(6)
Chapter 7 Modelling and Modelling Mechanisms
67(26)
Models
67(1)
Computer-Based Models
68(2)
Aspects of Model Design
70(2)
Coupling
72(4)
Cumulative Effect
76(1)
Structural Change
77(1)
Mechanisms
77(1)
Cellular Automata
77(5)
Simultaneous Change
82(3)
Subsequent Changes
85(3)
Feedback
88(1)
Agent-Based Models
89(4)
Chapter 8 Simulation
93(24)
The SeeChange Program and the System Structure
96(4)
A "Cellular Automata" Application of SeeChange
100(3)
Small-World Application of SeeChange
103(5)
Applying SeeChange to a Business Model
108(4)
Comparison of SeeChange with Commercial Tools
112(2)
Insight and Understanding of System Behaviour
114(1)
Insight into Interaction with Complex Systems
114(3)
Chapter 9 What Do We Do When a Change is Indicated?
117(4)
Messes, Problems and Puzzles
117(1)
Design by Increments
118(2)
Forecasting
120(1)
Chapter 10 Implementing a System
121(8)
Early Architectures
121(3)
Mutability
124(1)
The Crucial Role of Time
125(1)
Design of Computer-Based Systems
126(1)
Design Strategy
127(2)
Chapter 11 Real-World Change: EUREKA Class
129(36)
Aspects of the Change Process on a Ship
130(1)
EUREKA Simple Simulation
131(1)
Independent Changes
132(1)
Impact Analysis
132(5)
A Model of Change on a EUREKA Ship
137(8)
A SeeChange Model of Changes to a Ship
145(1)
Physical Model
145(6)
Structure of the SeeChange Model System
151(14)
Chapter 12 Real-World Change: Climate
165(16)
Climate Variables
165(6)
Climate Data
171(3)
Climate Models
174(2)
Simulation of Climate Models
176(5)
Chapter 13 In the Future
181(2)
Surprise is Always the Result of Change, Accept It
181(2)
Bibliography 183(8)
Index 191