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E-grāmata: Politics and Science of Prevision: Governing and Probing the Future

Edited by , Edited by (ETH Zurich, Switzerland), Edited by (Centre for Security Studies, ETH Zurich, Switzerland)
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"This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policymaking across different fields. The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policymaking. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters- the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance. This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies and IR"--

This book inquires into the use of prediction at the intersection of politics and academia, and reflects upon the implications of future-oriented policy-making across different fields.

The volume focuses on the key intricacies and fallacies of prevision in a time of complexity, uncertainty, and unpredictability. The first part of the book discusses different academic perspectives and contributions to future-oriented policy-making. The second part discusses the role of future knowledge in decision-making across different empirical issues such as climate, health, finance, bio- and nuclear weapons, civil war, and crime. It analyses how prediction is integrated into public policy and governance, and how in return governance structures influence the making of knowledge about the future. Contributors integrate two analytical dimensions in their chapters: the epistemology of prevision and the political and ethical implications of prevision. In this way, the volume contributes to a better understanding of the complex interaction and feedback loops between the processes of creating knowledge about the future and the application of this future knowledge in public policy and governance.

This book will be of much interest to students of security studies, political science, sociology, technology studies, and International Relations.

List of illustrations
vii
Notes on contributors viii
Acknowledgements xi
PART I Introduction
1(24)
1 Governing and probing the future: the politics and science of prevision
3(22)
Andreas Wenger
Ursula Jasper
Myriam Dunn Cavelty
PART II Academic perspectives on future-oriented policy-making
25(80)
2 Imagined worlds: the politics of future-making in the twenty-first century
27(18)
Sheila Jasanoff
3 How to know the future - and the past (and how not): a pragmatist perspective on foresight and hindsight
45(18)
Gunther Hellmann
4 Future thinking and cognitive distortions: key questions that guide forecasting processes
63(10)
Michael C. Horowitz
5 Thinking historically: a guide for policy
73(16)
Francis J. Gavin
6 From predicting to forecasting: uncertainties, scenarios, and their (un-)intended side effects
89(16)
Myriam Dunn Cavelty
PART III Empirical perspectives across policy fields
105(122)
7 Uncertainty and precariousness at the policy-science interface: three cases of climate-driven adaptation
107(15)
Maria Carmen Lemos
Nicole Klenk
8 The anticipative medicalization of life: governing future risk and uncertainty in (global) health
122(19)
Ursula Jasper
9 Crisis, what crisis? uncertainty, risk, and financial markets
141(17)
Stephen C. Nelson
Peter J. Katzenstein
10 Imagining future biothreats: the role of popular culture
158(19)
Filippa Lentzos
Jean-Baptiste Gouyon
Brian Balmer
11 Forecasting civil war and political violence
177(17)
Corinne Bara
12 Predicting nuclear weapons proliferation
194(19)
Jonas Schneider
13 `We do that once per day': cyclical futures and institutional ponderousness in predictive policing
213(14)
Matthias Leese
PART IV Conclusion
227(25)
14 The politics and science of the future: assembling future knowledge and integrating it into public policy and governance
229(23)
Andreas Wenger
Myriam Dunn Cavelty
Ursula Jasper
Index 252
Andreas Wenger is Professor of International and Swiss Security Policy and Director of the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at ETH Zurich, Switzerland.

Ursula Jasper is the Policy Officer at Fondation Botna in Switzerland. Prior to this she worked for many years as a Senior Researcher at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, Switzerland.

Myriam Dunn Cavelty is Deputy Head of Research and Teaching at the Center for Security Studies (CSS), ETH Zurich, Switzerland.