The idea that predictive science can simplify the decision-making process by creating a clearer picture of the future is deeply appealing in principle, but deeply problematic in practice.Prediction offers a fascinating and wide-ranging look at the interdependent scientific, political, and social factors involved in using science-based predictions to guide policy making. Through ten detailed case studies, it explores society's efforts to generate reliable scientific information about complex natural systems and to use that information in making sound policy decisions. The book: provides an overview of predictive science from historical, scientific, political, and behavioral perspectives offers case studies of the use and misuse of scientific predictions on subjects ranging from asteroids to nuclear waste disposal proposes a practical analytical framework for the use of predictive science in setting policy recommends actions and policies that can increase the likelihood of effective decisions Contributors include Clark Chapman, Charles Herrick, William H. Hooke, Orrin Pilkey, Steve Rayner, Naomi Oreskes, Daniel Metlay, Stanley Changnon, Donald Gautier, Robert Moran, Joanne Nigg, and Thomas Stewart.Prediction is the first book to look at the numerous and varied scientific, social, and political factors involved in making and using predictions relevant to a wide range of current environmental controversies and challenges. It provides much-needed context for understanding predictions and scientific pronouncements, and is an important work for anyone concerned with interactions between science and policy making.
List of Figures xi List of Tables and Boxes xiii Acknowledgments xv Introduction: Death, Taxes, and Environmental Policy 1(10) Daniel Sarewitz Roger A. Pielke, Jr. Radford Byerly, Jr. Part I: Prediction as a Problem Prediction in Science and Policy 11(12) Daniel Sarewitz Roger A. Pielke, Jr. Why Predict? Historical Perspectives on Prediction in Earth Science 23(18) Naomi Oreskes Uncertainty, Judgment, and Error in Prediction 41(20) Thomas R. Stewart Part II: Disasters Waiting to Happen: Predicting Natural Hazards Short-Term Weather Prediction: An Orchestra in Need of a Conductor 61(24) William H. Hooke Roger Pielke, Jr. Flood Prediction: Immersed in the Quagmire of National Flood Mitigation Strategy 85(22) Stanley A. Changnon The Asteroid/Comet Impact Hazard: Homo Sapiens as Dinosaur? 107(28) Clark R. Chapman Predicting Earthquakes: Science, Pseudoscience, and Public Policy Paradox 135(24) Joanne M. Nigg Part III: Foreordained Conclusions: Prediction and Politics What You Know Can Hurt You: Predicting the Behavior of Nourished Beaches 159(26) Orrin H. Pilkey Is This Number to Your Liking? Water Quality Predictions in Mining Impact Studies 185(14) Robert E. Moran From Tin Roof to Torn Wet Blanket: Predicting and Observing Groundwater Movement at a Proposed Nuclear Waste Site 199(32) Daniel Metlay Part IV: Cascades of Uncertainty: Prediction and Policy Oil and Gas Resource Appraisal: Diminishing Reserves, Increasing Supplies 231(20) Donald L. Gautier Predictive Modeling of Acid Rain: Obstacles to Generating Useful Information 251(18) Charles Herrick Prediction and Other Approaches to Climate Change Policy 269(30) Steve Rayner Part V: Prediction in Perspective Alternatives to Prediction 299(16) Ronald D. Brunner Prediction in Society 315(12) Dale Jamieson Prediction and Characteristic Times 327(14) Radford Byerly, Jr. A Decision Framework for Prediction in Environmental Policy 341(20) Charles Herrick J. Michael Pendleton Part VI: Conclusion Decision Making and the Future of Nature: Understanding and Using Predictions 361(28) Roger A. Pielke, Jr. Daniel Sarewitz Radford Byerly, Jr. About the Contributors 389(6) Index 395
