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E-grāmata: Probability and Evidence

  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Sērija : Cambridge Philosophy Classics
  • Izdošanas datums: 26-Aug-2016
  • Izdevniecība: Cambridge University Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781316560440
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  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Sērija : Cambridge Philosophy Classics
  • Izdošanas datums: 26-Aug-2016
  • Izdevniecība: Cambridge University Press
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781316560440

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In this influential study of central issues in the philosophy of science, Paul Horwich elaborates on an important conception of probability, diagnosing the failure of previous attempts to resolve these issues as stemming from a too-rigid conception of belief. Adopting a Bayesian strategy, he argues for a probabilistic approach, yielding a more complete understanding of the characteristics of scientific reasoning and methodology. Presented in a fresh twenty-first-century series livery, and including a specially commissioned preface written by Colin Howson, illuminating its enduring importance and relevance to philosophical enquiry, this engaging work has been revived for a new generation of readers.

Recenzijas

' the strongest and most influential parts of Probability and Evidence are Horwich's solutions to various puzzles about scientific reasoning the book might very well still be of considerable interest to those who are looking for an engaging and readable introduction to the topic of scientific reasoning from a Bayesian perspective.' Finnur Dellsén, Metascience

Papildus informācija

This influential book offers a probabilistic approach to scientific reasoning to resolve central issues in the philosophy of science.
Preface to this edition ix
Colin Howson
Preface xi
1 Methodology
1(14)
Introduction
1(2)
Aspects of the scientific method
3(7)
A Taste of Bayesianism
10(5)
2 Probability
15(33)
The primitive theory
15(3)
Subjectivism
18(12)
The rationalist interpretation
30(4)
The logical interpretation
34(2)
The evidential state
36(4)
The empirical interpretation
40(8)
3 Confirmation
48(20)
Explications
48(2)
The paradox
50(9)
A Bayesian pseudo-solution to the problem of induction
59(6)
Projection
65(3)
4 Induction
68(25)
(A) The nature of inductive inference
69(6)
(B) Conditions of rationality
75(9)
Demonstrable reliability
75(2)
The demonstrable reliability of c+
77(4)
Immodesty
81(2)
Audacity
83(1)
(C) The justification of induction
84(9)
The impossibility of a noncircular rationale
85(1)
Inductive demonstration of reliability
86(4)
Semantic justification
90(3)
5 Prediction
93(17)
Surprise
93(4)
Severe tests
97(1)
Ad hoc hypothesis
98(3)
Prediction versus accommodation
101(9)
6 Evidence
110(11)
The evidential value of varied data
110(3)
The value of further data
113(8)
7 Realism
121(12)
Popper
121(3)
Realism versus instrumentalism
124(3)
Putnam
127(2)
Glymour
129(2)
Conclusion
131(2)
Bibliography 133(2)
Index 135
Paul Horwich is Professor of Philosophy at New York University. He is best known for his contributions to the philosophy of science, including a probabilistic account of scientific methodology. His most recent publications include Wittgenstein's Metaphilosophy (2012) and Truth Meaning Reality (2010).