Preface |
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vii | |
Editor |
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xi | |
Contributors |
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xiii | |
Chapter 1 Product Effectiveness and Worth |
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1 | |
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Harold S. Balaban, Ned Criscimagna, Michael Pecht |
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1.2 Attributes Affecting Product Effectiveness |
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1.3 Programmatic Factors Affecting Product Effectiveness |
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1.3.1 Product Effectiveness |
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1.3.2 Operational Readiness and Availability |
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1.3.7 Relationships Among Time Elements |
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1.4 Assignment of Responsibility |
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1.4.1 Administrative Time |
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14 | |
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15 | |
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1.4.3 Active Repair Time and Operating Time |
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15 | |
Chapter 2 Reliability Concepts |
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19 | |
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Diganta Das, Michael Pecht |
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19 | |
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2.3 Probability Density Function |
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23 | |
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2.5 Conditional Reliability |
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Chapter 3 Statistical Inference Concepts |
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31 | |
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Jun Ming Hu, Mark Kaminskiy, Igor A. Ushakov |
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32 | |
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3.2 Statistical Estimation |
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3.2.1.2 Method of Moments |
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3.2.1.2 Method of Maximum Likelihood |
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3.2.2 Interval Estimation |
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3.3.1 Frequency Histogram |
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3.3.2 Goodness-of-Fit Tests |
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3.3.2.1 The Chi-Square Test |
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3.3.2.2 The KolmogorovSmirnov Test |
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3.3.2.3 Sample Comparison |
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3.4 Reliability Regression Model Fitting |
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3.4.1 GaussMarkov Theorem and Linear Regression |
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3.4.1.1 Regression Analysis |
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3.4.1.2 The GaussMarkov Theorem |
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3.4.1.3 Multiple Linear Regression |
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3.4.2 Proportional Hazard (PH) and Accelerated Life (AL) Models |
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3.4.2.1 Accelerated Life (AL) Model |
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3.4.2.2 Proportional Hazard (PH) Model |
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3.4.3 Accelerated Life Regression for Constant Stress |
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3.4.4 Accelerated Life Regression for Time-Dependent Stress |
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54 | |
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56 | |
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56 | |
Chapter 4 Practical Probability Distributions for Product Reliability Analysis |
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Diganta Das, Michael Pecht |
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57 | |
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4.2 Discrete Distributions |
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4.2.1 Binomial Distribution |
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4.2.2 Poisson Distribution |
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4.2.3 Other Discrete Distributions |
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4.3 Continuous Distributions |
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4.3.1 Weibull Distribution |
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4.3.2 Exponential Distribution |
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4.3.3 The Normal Distribution |
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4.3.4 The Lognormal Distribution |
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73 | |
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Chapter 5 Confidence Intervals |
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83 | |
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Diganta Das, Michael Pecht |
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83 | |
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84 | |
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5.2.2 Interpretation of Confidence Level |
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5.2.3 Relationship Between Confidence Interval and Sample Size |
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5.3 Confidence Interval Estimate Methods |
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5.4 Confidence Interval for Normal Distribution |
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5.4.1 Unknown Mean with Known Variance |
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5.4.2 Unknown Mean with Unknown Variance |
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5.4.3 Differences in Two Population Means with Variances Known |
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5.5 Confidence Interval on MTBFExponential Distribution Assumption |
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5.6 Confidence Intervals for Proportions |
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92 | |
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93 | |
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94 | |
Chapter 6 Hardware Reliability |
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95 | |
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Abhijit Dasgupta, Jun Ming Hu |
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96 | |
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6.2 Failure Mechanisms and Damage Models |
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98 | |
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6.2.1 Incorrect Mechanical Performance |
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6.2.2 Incorrect Thermal Performance |
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6.2.3 Incorrect Electrical Performance |
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6.2.3.1 Electromagnetic Interference |
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6.2.3.2 Particle Radiation |
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6.2.7 Interfacial De-Adhesion |
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6.2.11 Aging due to Interdiffusion |
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6.2.12 Aging due to Particle Radiation |
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6.2.13 Other Forms of Aging |
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6.3 Loadings, Stresses, and Material Behavior |
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6.4 Variabilities and Reliability |
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6.5 Reliability Prediction Techniques |
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115 | |
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6.6 Case Study: Wirebond Assembly in Microelectronic Packages |
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6.6.1 Failure Mechanisms and Stress Analysis |
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6.6.1.2 Shear of Bond Pad |
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120 | |
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6.6.1.3 Shear of Wire and Substrate |
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6.6.1.4 Axial Tension of Wire |
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122 | |
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6.6.2 Stochastic Modeling of Variabilities and Reliability |
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123 | |
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6.6.3 Fatigue Lifetime and Reliability Prediction |
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127 | |
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6.7 Qualification and Accelerated Testing |
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131 | |
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6.8 De-Rating and Logistic Implications |
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133 | |
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134 | |
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6.9.1 Process Qualification |
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135 | |
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6.9.2 Manufacturability, Process Variabilities, Defects, and Yields |
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135 | |
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6.9.3 Process Verification Testing and Statistical Process Control |
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136 | |
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138 | |
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139 | |
Chapter 7 Software Reliability |
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141 | |
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Richard Kowalski, Carol Smidts |
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142 | |
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143 | |
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7.3 Software Development: The Classic Waterfall Life Cycle |
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147 | |
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148 | |
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7.3.1.1 Software Requirements Definition and Analysis Phase |
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148 | |
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7.3.1.2 Preliminary and Detailed Design Phases |
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149 | |
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7.3.1.3 Code and Unit Testing Phase |
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7.3.1.4 Integration and System Testing Phase |
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7.3.1.5 Acceptance Testing Phase |
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151 | |
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7.3.1.6 Maintenance and Operation Phase |
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152 | |
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7.3.2 Software Development Standards |
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152 | |
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7.3.3 Distribution of Errors over the Development Life Cycle and Related Costs |
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152 | |
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7.4 Techniques to Improve Software Reliability |
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153 | |
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7.4.1 Designing Reliable Software |
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153 | |
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7.4.1.1 Structured Programming |
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153 | |
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7.4.1.2 Design Techniques |
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153 | |
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154 | |
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7.4.2 Designing Fault-Tolerant Software |
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155 | |
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7.4.2.1 Recovery-Block Design |
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156 | |
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7.4.2.2 N-Version Programming |
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157 | |
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7.4.2.3 Consensus Recovery Block |
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158 | |
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159 | |
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7.4.3.1 Black-Box and White-Box Testing |
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159 | |
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7.4.3.2 Module Testing: White-Box and Black-Box Testing Strategies |
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159 | |
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7.4.3.3 Integration Testing |
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161 | |
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7.4.4 Formal Methods (Neuhold and Paul 1991) |
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163 | |
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7.4.4.1 Formal Specification Methods |
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163 | |
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7.4.4.2 Formal Verification |
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163 | |
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7.4.5 Software Development Process Maturity |
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165 | |
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7.5 Techniques to Assess Software Reliability |
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166 | |
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7.5.1 Software Analysis Methods |
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166 | |
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7.5.1.1 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) |
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166 | |
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7.5.1.2 Fault-Tree Analysis |
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166 | |
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168 | |
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7.5.2.1 Requirements Measures: The Specification Completeness Measure |
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168 | |
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7.5.2.2 Design Phase Measures |
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168 | |
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7.5.2.3 Code and Unit Test Phase Measure: Defect Density (IEEE 1989a) |
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172 | |
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7.5.3 Software Reliability Models |
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173 | |
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7.5.3.1 A Classification of Software Reliability Models |
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173 | |
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7.5.3.2 Jelinski and Moranda's Model |
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175 | |
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7.5.3.3 Musa Basic Execution Time Model (BETM) |
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178 | |
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7.5.3.4 MusaOkumoto Logarithmic Poisson Execution Time Model (LPETM) |
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179 | |
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7.5.3.5 Mills's Fault Seeding Model (IEEE 1989b) |
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179 | |
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7.5.3.6 Nelson's Input-Based Domain Model |
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180 | |
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7.5.3.7 Derived Software Reliability Models |
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180 | |
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7.5.3.8 A Critique of Existing Software Reliability Models |
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181 | |
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181 | |
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182 | |
Chapter 8 Failure Modes, Mechanisms, and Effects Analysis |
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185 | |
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Sony Mathew, Michael Pecht |
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186 | |
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8.2 Failure Modes, Mechanisms, and Effects Analysis Methodology |
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188 | |
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8.2.1 System Definition, Elements, and Functions |
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189 | |
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8.2.2 Potential Failure Modes |
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189 | |
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8.2.3 Potential Failure Causes |
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189 | |
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8.2.4 Potential Failure Mechanisms |
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190 | |
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190 | |
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8.2.7 Failure Mechanism Prioritization |
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191 | |
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194 | |
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199 | |
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199 | |
Chapter 9 Design for Reliability |
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201 | |
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Diganta Das, Michael Pecht |
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201 | |
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9.2 Product Requirements and Constraints |
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202 | |
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9.3 Product Life-Cycle Conditions |
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203 | |
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9.4 Reliability Capability |
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205 | |
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9.5 Parts and Materials Selection |
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205 | |
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9.6 Failure Modes, Mechanisms, and Effects Analysis |
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206 | |
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207 | |
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207 | |
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9.7.2 Model Analysis of Failure Mechanisms |
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208 | |
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208 | |
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9.7.4 Protective Architectures |
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209 | |
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209 | |
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9.9 Manufacture and Assembly |
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212 | |
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212 | |
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9.9.2 Process Verification Testing |
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213 | |
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9.10 Closed-Loop, Root-Cause Monitoring |
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214 | |
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216 | |
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216 | |
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216 | |
Chapter 10 System Reliability Modeling |
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219 | |
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219 | |
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10.2 Reliability Block Diagram |
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220 | |
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220 | |
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10.4 Products with Redundancy |
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222 | |
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223 | |
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226 | |
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10.4.4 Limits of Redundancy |
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227 | |
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228 | |
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10.4.5.1 Complete Enumeration Method |
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228 | |
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10.4.5.2 Conditional Probability Method |
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230 | |
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10.4.5.3 Cut Set Methodology |
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231 | |
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232 | |
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10.6 Steps of Fault-Tree Analysis |
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233 | |
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236 | |
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236 | |
Chapter 11 Reliability Analysis of Redundant and Fault-Tolerant Products |
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239 | |
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240 | |
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241 | |
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11.1 Static Redundancy Combinatorial Modeling |
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241 | |
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241 | |
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11.1.1.1 Series Connections |
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243 | |
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11.1.1.2 Parallel Connections |
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243 | |
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11.1.1.3 Series-Parallel Connections |
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243 | |
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11.1.1.4 Non-Series-Parallel Connections |
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244 | |
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11.1.2 Masking Redundancy |
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246 | |
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11.1.2.1 Triple Modular Redundancy |
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247 | |
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11.1.2.2 N-Modular Redundancy |
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248 | |
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250 | |
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11.1.3.1 Cut Set Generation |
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11.1.3.2 Inclusion/Exclusion Method |
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252 | |
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253 | |
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11.2.1 Mean Time to Failure |
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254 | |
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255 | |
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11.3 Dynamic Redundancy Markov Modeling |
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256 | |
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257 | |
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11.3.2 TMR/Simplex Product |
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260 | |
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11.3.3 Repairable Products |
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262 | |
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11.3.3.1 Independent Repair |
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263 | |
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11.3.3.2 Dependent Repair |
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264 | |
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266 | |
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11.4.1 Common-Mode Failures |
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266 | |
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11.4.2 Dependent Failure Rate |
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268 | |
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11.4.3 Multimode Failures |
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268 | |
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11.5 Coverage Modeling for Fault-Tolerant Computer Products |
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271 | |
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272 | |
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11.5.2 The Impact of Imperfect Coverage |
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272 | |
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11.5.3 Some Coverage Models |
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273 | |
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11.5.3.1 General Structure of a Coverage Model |
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273 | |
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11.5.4 Near-Coincident Faults |
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278 | |
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11.5.5 Including the Coverage Model in the Product Model |
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281 | |
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11.6 Bounded Approximate Models |
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284 | |
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11.6.1 Truncated Exhaustive State Enumeration |
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287 | |
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11.6.2 Truncated Sum of Disjoint Products |
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289 | |
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11.6.3 Truncating a Markov Chain |
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291 | |
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292 | |
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11.7.1 Combining Performance with Reliability |
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292 | |
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11.7.2 Phased Applications |
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293 | |
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11.7.3 Advanced Fault-Tree Modeling |
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296 | |
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297 | |
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297 | |
Chapter 12 Reliability Models and Data Analysis for Repairable Products |
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299 | |
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300 | |
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12.2 Analytical Background |
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300 | |
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12.2.1 Age-Independent F-R Processes |
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301 | |
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12.2.2 Age-Persistent F-R Processes |
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301 | |
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12.2.3 Defining Characteristics of AI and AP Precedes |
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302 | |
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12.2.4 Failure Repair as Renewal and Poisson Processes |
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302 | |
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12.2.4.1 Renewal Processes |
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302 | |
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12.2.4.2 Homogeneous Poisson Processes |
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305 | |
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12.2.4.3 Nonhomogeneous Poisson Processes |
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306 | |
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12.2.4.4 F-R Process Relationships |
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308 | |
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12.3 Data Analysis Techniques |
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309 | |
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12.3.1 Graphical Trend Tests |
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309 | |
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12.3.2 Test for a Renewal Process |
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312 | |
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12.3.3 Test for a Homogeneous Poisson Process |
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315 | |
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12.3.4 Comparison of Two Samples |
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317 | |
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12.3.5 Fitting the Weibull Nonhomogeneous Poisson Process |
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319 | |
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12.3.5.1 Weibull Process Characteristics |
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319 | |
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12.3.5.2 Estimation of λ and β |
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320 | |
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12.3.5.3 Goodness-of-Fit Tests |
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322 | |
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12.3.5.4 Confidence Interval Estimates |
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323 | |
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324 | |
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324 | |
Chapter 13 Continuous Reliability Improvement |
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325 | |
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326 | |
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13.2 Reliability Growth Process |
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326 | |
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13.2.1 Reliability Improvement Program |
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326 | |
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13.2.2 Failure Classification |
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331 | |
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333 | |
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13.2.4 Test Cycles and Environmental Considerations |
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334 | |
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13.3 Stress Margin Testing |
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335 | |
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13.3.1 Stressed Life Test (STRIFE) |
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336 | |
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13.3.2 Highly Accelerated Life Test (HALT) |
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337 | |
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13.3.3 Inverse Power Law Model and Miner's Rule |
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338 | |
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13.4 Continuous Growth Monitoring |
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339 | |
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13.4.1 Continuous Growth Models |
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339 | |
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339 | |
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342 | |
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349 | |
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13.4.2.1 Lloyd and Lipow Model |
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349 | |
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350 | |
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13.5 Reliability Improvement Effectiveness and Uncertainty |
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350 | |
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13.5.1 Reliability Improvement Effectiveness |
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351 | |
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13.5.2 Reliability Improvement Uncertainty |
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351 | |
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354 | |
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354 | |
Chapter 14 Logistics Support |
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357 | |
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358 | |
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359 | |
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14.3 Influence of Reliability on Logistics Resources |
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361 | |
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14.3.1 Reliability, Maintenance Rates, and Expected Demand for Logistics Resources |
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361 | |
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14.3.1.1 False Alarm Rate (FAR) |
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364 | |
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14.3.1.2 Cannot Duplicate (CND) Rate |
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364 | |
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14.3.1.3 Probability of Fault Detection (DET) |
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364 | |
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14.3.1.4 Probability of Fault Isolation (ISO) |
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365 | |
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14.3.1.5 Maintenance Action Rate (MAR) |
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366 | |
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14.3.1.6 Demand Rate (DEM) |
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367 | |
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14.3.1.7 Mean Downtime (MDT) |
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368 | |
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14.3.2 Supply Support Provisioning of Repair Parts and Consumables |
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369 | |
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14.3.2.1 Optimal Reorder Quantity |
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370 | |
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14.3.2.2 Spares' Availability and Provisioning |
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373 | |
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14.3.2.3 Provisioning a Product Composed of Replaceable Parts |
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375 | |
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14.3.2.4 Spares' Optimization |
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378 | |
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14.3.3 Manpower and Personnel Staffing Levels |
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382 | |
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14.3.4 Support and Test Equipment Utilization and Productivity |
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385 | |
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14.4 Repair Level Analysis |
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387 | |
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389 | |
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390 | |
Chapter 15 Product Effectiveness and Cost Analysis |
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391 | |
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Harold S. Balaban, David Weiss |
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391 | |
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15.2 A Framework for Product Effectiveness Quantification Using Markov Processes |
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393 | |
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15.2.1 A Generalization of the Model for Multifunction Operations |
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394 | |
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15.2.2 Effectiveness Evaluation ExampleContinuous Performance |
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396 | |
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15.2.3 Model Applicability |
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400 | |
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15.3 Factors to Consider in Analyzing Product Effectiveness |
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401 | |
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15.3.1 Phase I: Define Application, Product, and Logistics Support |
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403 | |
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15.3.2 Phase II: Select Measures of Effectiveness |
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403 | |
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15.3.3 Phase III: Develop the Mathematical Model |
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|
405 | |
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15.3.4 Phase IV: Obtain Data Inputs |
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|
407 | |
|
15.3.5 Phase V: Exercise, Interpret, and Refine Model |
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|
407 | |
|
15.4 Cost-Effectiveness Analysis |
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|
408 | |
|
15.4.1 Cost Categorization |
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|
408 | |
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|
410 | |
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|
413 | |
|
15.4.4 Cost Uncertainty and Cost Sensitivity |
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|
415 | |
|
15.4.5 Combining Effectiveness and Cost |
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|
416 | |
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|
419 | |
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|
419 | |
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|
419 | |
Chapter 16 Process Capability and Process Control |
|
421 | |
|
Diganta Das, Michael Pecht |
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|
|
|
421 | |
|
16.2 Average Outgoing Quality |
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|
421 | |
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|
423 | |
|
16.4 Statistical Process Control |
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|
426 | |
|
16.4.1 Control Charts: Recognizing Sources of Variation |
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|
427 | |
|
16.4.1.1 Constructing a Control Chart |
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|
427 | |
|
16.5 Examples of Control Chart Constants |
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|
434 | |
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|
442 | |
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|
443 | |
Index |
|
447 | |