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E-grāmata: Project Management: A Risk-Management Approach

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  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 13-Aug-2020
  • Izdevniecība: SAGE Publications Inc
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781544333977
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Project Management: A Risk-Management ApproachPalielināt
  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 13-Aug-2020
  • Izdevniecība: SAGE Publications Inc
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781544333977
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"As the number, size, and complexity of projects continue to increase, there is a huge demand for effective project managers. Project Management: A Risk Management Approach prepares students to successfully navigate the many challenges , factors, and situations project managers face. Authors Ted Klastorin and Gary Mitchell emphasize the importance of mitigating risk at every stage, helping students understand how they can avoid common pitfalls that lead to project failure or incurred costs. Short cases, real-world examples, solved problems, and practice problems bring PM concepts and methodologies to life. Key Features: Chapter on decentralized projects explores the unique challenges that arise when various stakeholders pursue their independent goals Supplement on Agile Project Management provides an in-depth exploration of the advantages and disadvantages of agile PM Microsoft Project activities give students hands-on practice opportunities Correlation guide to the PMP Exam illustrates how the text helps readers prepare for their PMP Exam"--

As the number and size of projects continue to increase, there is a growing demand for effective project managers. Project Management: A Risk-Management Approach prepares students to successfully navigate the many challenges, factors, and situations that project managers face. Authors Ted Klastorin and Gary Mitchell emphasize the importance of mitigating risk at every stage, helping students avoid common pitfalls that lead to project failures, compromised schedules, or incurred costs. Real-world examples, cases, solved problems, and practice problems help bring methodologies to life. Readers will be equipped with the tools they need to plan, schedule, and monitor even the most complex projects in a variety of market sectors.
Foreword xv
Jim Salmon
Preface xvii
Acknowledgments xxii
About the Authors xxiii
1 An Introduction to Project Management
xxiv
1.1 Introduction
xxiv
1.1.1 Risk Management
xxiv
1.1.2 Increasing Project Complexity
1(1)
1.1.3 Change Management
1(1)
1.1.4 Shrinking Project Life Cycles
1(2)
1.1.5 Newer Methodologies
3(1)
1.1.6 Implications and Costs of a Lack of Project Management
3(3)
1.2 What Defines a Project?
6(4)
1.2.1 A Taxonomy of Project Types
8(1)
1.2.2 Project Governance
9(1)
1.3 The Project Life Cycle
10(1)
1.4 Measures of Project Success and Failure
11(6)
1.4.1 Organizational Structure and Project Success
14(2)
1.4.2 Success and Failure of Information Technology Projects
16(1)
1.4.3 When to "Pull the Plug"
17(1)
1.5 Managing Project Risks
17(4)
1.5.1 Risk Classes Defined
18(3)
1.6 Project Management Trade-Offs
21(1)
1.7 Program Versus Project Management
22(1)
1.8 Agile Project Management: A Modern Development
22(1)
1.9 A Brief History of Project Management
23(1)
1.10 Overview of the Text
24(1)
1.10.1 Important Concepts to Remember
24(1)
Summary
25(5)
2 Project Initiation and Selection
30(42)
2.1 Introduction
30(1)
2.2 The Relationship of Projects to Strategic and Operational Goals
31(2)
2.2.1 Initiating Project Proposals
31(2)
2.3 Simple Numerical Measures
33(7)
2.3.1 Payback Period
33(1)
2.3.2 Net Present Value
34(3)
2.3.3 Internal Rate of Return
37(1)
2.3.4 Accounting Rate of Return
38(1)
2.3.5 Profitability Index
39(1)
2.4 Advanced Measures
40(4)
2.4.1 Risk-Adjusted Discount Rates
41(3)
2.5 Implementing "Options Thinking"
44(5)
2.5.1 Putting Options Thinking Into Practice
45(3)
2.5.2 Project Timing: The Defer Option
48(1)
2.6 "Stage Gates" Defined
49(1)
2.7 Ranking and Scoring Methods
50(4)
2.8 Evaluating Project Portfolios
54(8)
2.8.1 Importance of Project Portfolios
54(1)
2.8.2 Mathematical Programming Model That Defines a Project Portfolio
55(7)
Summary
62(10)
3 Project Planning
72(66)
3.1 Introduction
72(1)
3.2 Outline of a Project Plan
72(22)
3.2.1 Executive Summary
73(2)
3.2.2 Project Description
75(6)
3.2.3 Approach and Phasing Strategy
81(2)
3.2.4 Assumptions and Constraints
83(1)
3.2.5 Critical Success Factors
83(1)
3.2.6 Project Completion Criteria
84(1)
3.2.7 Responsibilities Matrix
85(3)
3.2.8 Project Schedule
88(1)
3.2.9 Time and Cash Management Plan
89(2)
3.2.10 Quality Assurance Plan
91(3)
3.3 Risk Management Strategy and Plan
94(8)
3.3.1 The Need for a Risk Management Plan
94(1)
3.3.2 Strategies for Managing Project Risks
95(2)
3.3.3 Understanding Risk
97(5)
3.3.4 Risk Management Tactical Plan
102(1)
3.4 Communications Strategy and Plan
102(1)
3.5 Identifying Project Requirements
103(4)
3.5.1 Types of Requirements
104(1)
3.5.2 Characteristics of Good Requirements
104(3)
Summary
107(17)
3.5 Supplement: Agile Project Management
124(11)
3.5.1 Introduction
124(1)
3.5.2 Agile Project Management
124(1)
3.5.2.1 Advantages of Agile PM
125(1)
3.5.2.2 Disadvantages of Agile PM
126(1)
3.5.3 Implementing Agile PM
126(1)
3.5.4 Scrum and Extreme Programming
127(1)
3.5.5 Velocity and Burndown Charts
127(1)
3.5.5.1 Burndown Charts
128(2)
3.5.6 Risk Management and the Agile-Traditional Continuum
130(4)
3.5.7 Agile PM Analogy: American Football
134(1)
Summary
135(3)
4 Defining Project Content
138(60)
4.1 Introduction
138(1)
4.2 Costs Defined
138(4)
4.2.1 Resource (Direct) Costs
139(1)
4.2.2 Time-Dependent Costs
139(2)
4.2.3 Incentive Payments: Penalty Costs and Bonuses
141(1)
4.3 Defining Project Work
142(12)
4.3.1 The Work Breakdown Structure
142(3)
4.3.2 Constructing a WBS
145(7)
4.3.3 Guidelines for Defining Tasks
152(2)
4.4 Estimating Work Content and Task Duration
154(12)
4.4.1 Methodologies for Estimating Project Duration and Cost
155(11)
4.4.2 Estimating Software Projects
166(1)
4.5 Deterministic Versus Stochastic Estimates
166(8)
4.5.1 Deterministic Estimates
167(1)
4.5.2 Stochastic Estimates
168(6)
4.6 Common Pitfalls and Perils
174(7)
4.6.1 Insufficient Task Granularity
176(2)
4.6.2 Problems Associated With Task Durations
178(1)
4.6.3 Internally Inconsistent Estimates
178(1)
4.6.4 Estimates That Do Not Facilitate Project Monitoring and Control
179(1)
4.6.5 Tasks That Focus on Work Rather Than Deliverables
180(1)
4.6.6 Project Schedules Not Based on the Risk Management Plan
180(1)
Summary
181(17)
4 Supplement: Review of Probability and Distribution Functions
198(22)
4S.1 Introduction
198(1)
4S.2 Probability Distributions
198(3)
4S.2.1 Discrete Probability Distributions
199(1)
4S.2.2 Continuous Probability Distributions
200(1)
4S.3 Summary Measures for Probability Distributions
201(1)
4S.3.1 Mean
201(1)
4S.3.2 Variance
201(1)
4S.3.3 Standard Deviation
201(1)
4S.4 Common Discrete Distributions
202(2)
4S.4.1 The Binomial Distribution
202(1)
4S.4.2 The Poisson Distribution
203(1)
4S.5 Common Continuous Distributions
204(7)
4S.5.1 The Beta Distribution
204(2)
4S.5.2 The Continuous Uniform Distribution
206(1)
4S.5.3 The Exponential Distribution
206(2)
4S.5.4 The Shifted Exponential Distribution
208(1)
4S.5.5 The Normal Distribution
209(1)
4S.5.6 The Triangular Distribution
210(1)
4S.6 Sums of Random Variables
211(1)
Summary
212(8)
5 Scheduling a Deterministic Project
220(58)
5.1 Introduction
220(1)
5.2 Determining a Project's Schedule
221(1)
5.2.1 Precedence Networks
221(1)
5.3 The Critical Path Method
222(7)
5.3.1 CPM Algorithm (Calculations)
225(4)
5.4 Calculating Slacks (Floats)
229(6)
5.4.1 Total Slack
229(1)
5.4.2 Free Slack
230(1)
5.4.3 Safety Slack
231(1)
5.4.4 Independent Slack
231(1)
5.4.5 Putting It All Together
232(3)
5.5 Types of Precedence Relations
235(2)
5.6 Linear Programming Formulation
237(9)
5.6.1 Formulating the Project LP
238(3)
5.6.2 Solving the Project LP (Table Approach)
241(1)
5.6.3 Solving the Project LP (Matrix Approach)
242(4)
5.6.4 Some Important Variations
246(1)
5.7 Gantt Charts: Representing the Schedule Graphically
246(2)
5.8 Activity-on-Arc Precedence Networks
248(5)
5.8.1 Comparison of AOA and AON Networks
250(1)
5.8.2 CPM Calculations for AOA Networks
250(3)
5.9 A Note Regarding Software Programs
253(1)
Summary
253(25)
6 Project Trade-Offs and Risk Mitigation
278(40)
6.1 Introduction
278(1)
6.2 Preparing a Budget: The Basic Time-Cost Relationship
278(7)
6.3 Project Compression: Time-Cost Trade-Offs
285(12)
6.3.1 Trade-Offs Between Direct Resource Costs and Overhead/Indirect Costs
286(2)
6.3.2 Using Linear Programming to Solve the Time-Cost Trade-Off Problem
288(5)
6.3.3 Using a (Matrix) Solver Model to Solve the Time-Cost Trade-Off Problem
293(1)
6.3.4 Nonlinear Time-Cost Trade-Offs
294(1)
6.3.5 Discrete Time-Cost Trade-Offs
295(2)
6.4 Risk Management and Time-Cost Trade-Offs
297(6)
6.5 Time-Cost Trade-Offs in Stochastic Projects
303(1)
6.6 Other Trade-Off Issues: Concurrent Engineering and Coordination Costs
304(3)
6.6.1 Concurrent Engineering: Serial Versus Parallel Processing
304(3)
Summary
307(11)
7 Scheduling Stochastic Projects
318(54)
7.1 Introduction
318(1)
7.2 Proactive Versus Reactive Scheduling
319(1)
7.3 Using Buffers to Protect the Schedule
320(4)
7.3.1 Robust Scheduling
321(2)
7.3.2 Risk Pooling
323(1)
7.4 Planning Under Task Time Uncertainty Using Classic PERT
324(11)
7.4.1 Classic PERT
324(1)
7.4.2 Calculating Task Expected Durations and Variances
324(1)
7.4.3 Finding Path Expected Durations and Variances
325(2)
7.4.4 Calculating Starting and Ending Time Probabilities
327(2)
7.4.5 Limitations of the Classic PERT Model
329(5)
7.4.6 Avoiding Classic PERT Biases: Setting a Project Buffer
334(1)
7.5 Planning Under Task Time Uncertainty Using Monte Carlo Simulation Models
335(6)
7.5.1 Simulating a Project With Continuous Probability Distributions
335(4)
7.5.2 Simulating a Project With Discrete Probability Distributions
339(2)
7.6 Managing Exogenous Uncertainties
341(5)
7.6.1 Cycles and Probabilistic Branching: A New Product Development Example
341(3)
7.6.2 Analyzing Cost Uncertainties
344(2)
7.6.3 Addressing Resource Uncertainties
346(1)
7.7 Task Time Uncertainty and the Theory of Constraints
346(5)
7.7.1 Implications of Task Uncertainty
348(1)
7.7.2 Schoenberger's Hypothesis
349(2)
Summary
351(21)
7 Supplement: Monte Carlo Simulation
372(30)
7S.1 Introduction
372(1)
7S.2 The Basic Concept
372(1)
7S.3 Generating Random Variates
373(5)
7S.3.1 The Inverse Transform Method
374(4)
7S.4 Generate Trials
378(8)
7S.4.1 Replication Method
378(1)
7S.4.2 Single-Trial Worksheet Method
378(8)
7S.5 Analyzing the Simulation
386(4)
7S.5.1 Calculating Probabilities
388(2)
7S.5.2 Calculating Inverse Cumulative Probabilities
390(1)
Summary
390(12)
8 Managing Project Resources
402(38)
8.1 Introduction
402(1)
8.2 Defining Resource Types
403(1)
8.2.1 Rate-Constrained Resources
403(1)
8.2.2 Capacity-Constrained Resources
403(1)
8.2.3 Doubly Constrained Resources
403(1)
8.3 Criteria for Scheduling Resource Types
403(1)
8.3.1 Resource Leveling Problem
404(1)
8.3.2 Resource Allocation Problem
404(1)
8.4 The Resource Leveling Problem Defined
404(5)
8.5 The Rate-Constrained Resource Allocation Problem
409(5)
8.5.1 Solving the Rate-Constrained Resource Allocation Problem: Ranking the Tasks
409(5)
8.6 Heuristics for the Rate-Constrained Resource Allocation Problem
414(2)
8.6.1 Task-Based Algorithms (Serial Heuristics)
414(2)
8.6.2 Time-Based Algorithms (Parallel Heuristics)
416(1)
8.7 An Easily Solvable Rate-Constrained Resource Allocation Problem: The Critical Chain Defined
416(3)
8.8 The Critical Chain Methodology
419(2)
8.9 Defining Resource Buffers
421(1)
8.10 Capacity-Constrained Resource Allocation
422(4)
8.11 Supply Chain Management and Projects
426(1)
8.12 Impact of Worker Behaviors on Project Outcomes
427(3)
8.12.1 Parkinson's Law
428(1)
8.12.2 Procrastinating Workers
429(1)
Summary
430(10)
9 Project Teams
440(52)
9.1 Introduction
440(2)
9.2 Forming a Project Team
442(6)
9.2.1 Determining Team Composition
442(4)
9.2.2 Bringing a Team Together
446(1)
9.2.3 Promoting Team and Project Success
447(1)
9.3 Assigning Potential Team Members to a Project
448(8)
9.3.1 Finding the Smallest Team That Satisfies Skill Requirements
449(1)
9.3.2 Minimizing Costs of a Team That Satisfies Skill Requirements
450(6)
9.4 Making Trade-Off Decisions When Creating Project Teams
456(9)
9.4.1 Team Versus Individual Performance
456(3)
9.4.2 The Cost of Coordination and Communication
459(5)
9.4.3 Makespan Reduction Versus Team Efficiency
464(1)
9.5 Determining Team Size When Resource Availability Is Uncertain
465(3)
9.5.1 Finding the Optimal (Cost-Minimizing) Team Size With Uncertain Resources
466(2)
9.6 Managing the Project Team
468(5)
9.6.1 Planning the Project as a Team
468(1)
9.6.2 Using Performance Incentives to Manage Schedule Risk
468(2)
9.6.3 Conflict in Project Teams
470(1)
9.6.4 Long-Term Team Considerations
471(1)
9.6.5 Publicizing Team Success
472(1)
9.6.6 Launching the Project
473(1)
9.7 Managing the End of Project Transition
473(1)
9.7.1 Project Team Performance Evaluations
474(1)
Summary
474(18)
10 Managing Decentralized Projects
492(20)
10.1 Introduction
492(1)
10.2 Decentralized Projects
493(1)
10.3 Subcontracting Issues Defined
494(2)
10.3.1 Evaluating Potential Contractors
495(1)
10.3.2 Request for Proposals and Request for Bids
495(1)
10.4 Underlying Economic Concepts
496(1)
10.5 Contract Types Defined
497(4)
10.5.1 Fixed-Price Contracts
497(1)
10.5.2 Cost-Plus Contracts (Also Known as Cost-Reimbursable Contracts)
498(1)
10.5.3 Time and Material Contracts
498(1)
10.5.4 Performance-Based Contracts
498(1)
10.5.5 Incentive Contracts
499(2)
10.5.6 Optional-Scope Contracts
501(1)
10.6 Defining a Contract That Maximizes the Project Value
501(7)
10.6.1 When Is an Incentive Contract a Coordinating Contract?
506(1)
10.6.2 Comparing the Incentive Contract With a Fixed-Price Contract
506(1)
10.6.3 Final Issues Related to Defining a Coordinating Contract
507(1)
Summary
508(4)
11 Assessing Project Progress
512(26)
11.1 Introduction
512(1)
11.2 Assessing In-Control Versus Out-of-Control Project States
512(3)
11.2.1 Project Control System Illustrated
513(2)
11.3 Earned Value Analysis Defined
515(9)
11.3.1 Actual Cost of Work Performed
515(1)
11.3.2 Budgeted Cost of Work Scheduled
515(1)
11.3.3 Budgeted Cost of Work Performed
516(3)
11.3.4 Total Variance and Time Variance Defined
519(1)
11.3.5 Critical Ratio
520(3)
11.3.6 Fixed Rules to Estimate Earned Value
523(1)
11.4 Limitations of Earned Value Analysis
524(1)
11.5 Updating Cost and Schedule Forecasts
525(4)
11.5.1 Naive Method 1
525(1)
11.5.2 Naive Method 2
526(1)
11.5.3 Using a Monte Carlo Simulation Model to Update Forecasts
526(3)
Summary
529(9)
12 Managing a Multiproject Environment
538(69)
12.1 Introduction
538(1)
12.2 Managing the Project Portfolio
539(17)
12.2.1 Selecting and Funding Projects
540(1)
12.2.2 Assigning Resources to Multiple Projects
540(7)
12.2.3 Scheduling Projects With Shared Resources
547(5)
12.2.4 Multitasking Shared Resources
552(2)
12.2.5 Prioritizing Projects in the Real World: Should Incentives Be Used?
554(1)
12.2.6 Scheduling When Projects Arrive at Random Times
554(2)
12.3 Ensuring Projects Deliver Their Value Propositions
556(10)
12.3.1 Project Audits and Data Collection
557(1)
12.3.2 Managing Stage (Toll) Gates
558(1)
12.3.3 Project Performance Measurement
559(6)
12.3.4 Project Closure
565(1)
12.4 The Role of the Project Manager
566(9)
12.4.1 The Project Manager as Business Leader
568(1)
12.4.2 The Work of a Project Manager
569(1)
12.4.3 Selecting a Project Manager
570(3)
12.4.4 Project Manager Competency Frameworks
573(1)
12.4.5 Sources of Influence
574(1)
12.4.6 Finding the Perfect Project Manager
575(1)
12.5 The Role of the PMO
575(5)
12.5.1 PMO Organizational Scope
576(1)
12.5.2 PMO Functional Scope
576(2)
12.5.3 PMO Contributions to Project Success
578(2)
Summary
580(27)
Appendix A Textbook Notations Defined 607(4)
Appendix B MS Project Practice Problems 611
Glossary 1(1)
Bibliography 1(1)
Index 1
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