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E-grāmata: Property Investment Appraisal

(Professor of Real Estate, Department of Real Estate & Planning, University of Reading), , (Professor of Land Management, University of Reading; Managing Director, Oxford Property Consultants, Reading)
  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 06-Jan-2021
  • Izdevniecība: Wiley-Blackwell
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781118399545
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Property Investment AppraisalPalielināt
  • Formāts: PDF+DRM
  • Izdošanas datums: 06-Jan-2021
  • Izdevniecība: Wiley-Blackwell
  • Valoda: eng
  • ISBN-13: 9781118399545
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Discover an insightful examination of the property investment appraisal process from leaders in the industry  

This book explains the process of property investment appraisal: the process of estimating both the most likely selling price (market value) and the worth of property investments to individuals or groups of investors (investment value). 

Valuations are important. They are used as a surrogate for transactions in the measurement of investment performance and they influence investors and other market operators when transacting property. Valuations need to be trusted by their clients and valuers need to produce rational and objective solutions.  Appraisals of worth are even more important, as they help to determine the prices that should be paid for assets, even in times of crisis, and they can indicate market under- or over-pricing.  

In a style that makes the theory as well as the practice of valuation accessible to students and practitioners, the authors provide a valuable critique of conventional valuation methods and argue for the adoption of more contemporary cash-flow methods. They explain how such valuation models are constructed and give useful examples throughout.  They also show how these contemporary cash-flow methods connect market valuations with rational appraisals.  

The UK property investment market has been through periods of both boom and bust since the first edition of this text was produced in 1988. As a result, the book includes examples generated by vastly different market states. Complex reversions, over-rented properties and leaseholds are all fully examined by the authors.  

This Fourth Edition includes new material throughout, including brand new chapters on development appraisals and bank lending valuations, heavily revised sections on discounted cash flow models with extended examples, and on the measurement and analysis of risk at an individual property asset level. The heart of the book remains the critical examination of market valuation models, which no other book addresses in such detail. 

Preface xi
1 Property Investment Appraisal in its Context 1(14)
1.1 What is Appraisal?
1(3)
1.2 The Appraisal Process
4(1)
1.3 What Makes a Good Appraisal?
5(7)
1.3.1 Accuracy, Bias, Smoothing, and Lagging of Valuations
6(5)
1.3.2 Client Influence on Valuations
11(1)
1.4 Conventional and Discounted-Cash-Flow Approaches to Appraisal
12(3)
2 Principles of Investment Analysis 15(36)
2.1 Introduction
15(1)
2.2 Types of Investments
16(9)
2.2.1 Cash Deposits
16(1)
2.2.2 Fixed-Interest Securities
17(2)
2.2.3 Index-Linked Securities
19(1)
2.2.4 Ordinary Shares (Equities)
20(2)
2.2.5 Property
22(2)
2.2.6 Summary of Investment Types
24(1)
2.3 Qualities of Investments
25(6)
2.3.1 Income and Capital Growth
27(1)
2.3.2 Operating Expenses
28(1)
2.3.3 Liquidity, Marketability, and Transfer Costs
28(1)
2.3.4 Real Options
29(1)
2.3.5 Leverage
30(1)
2.3.6 Tax Efficiency
31(1)
2.4 Sources of Risk
31(10)
2.4.1 Business and Financial Risk
32(1)
2.4.2 Nominal and Real Risk
33(1)
2.4.3 Systematic and Specific Risk
34(3)
2.4.3.1 Systematic Risks
35(1)
2.4.3.2 Specific Risks
35(2)
2.4.3.3 International Investment Risks
37(1)
2.4.4 Diversifying Risk
37(4)
2.5 Comparing Investments: NPV and IRR
41(5)
2.6 Initial Yield Analysis and Construction
46(2)
2.7 Summary
48(3)
3 The DCF Appraisal Model 51(32)
3.1 The Cash Flow Model
51(1)
3.2 The Inputs
51(11)
3.2.1 The Holding Period
53(1)
3.2.2 The Lease and Lease Events
54(1)
3.2.3 Depreciation, Refurbishment and Redevelopment
55(2)
3.2.4 Forecasting Rental Growth
57(1)
3.2.5 The Resale Price
58(1)
3.2.6 Exit Capitalisation Rate
58(1)
3.2.7 Expenses
59(1)
3.2.8 Void (Vacancy) Allowances
60(1)
3.2.9 Transaction Costs
60(1)
3.2.10 Taxes
61(1)
3.2.11 Debt Finance
61(1)
3.3 The Discount Rate
62(4)
3.3.1 The Risk-Free Rate
63(1)
3.3.2 The Risk Premium
64(2)
3.4 Examples
66(16)
3.5 Summary
82(1)
4 The Evolution of Freehold Market Valuation Models 83(26)
4.1 Introduction
83(1)
4.2 The Evolution of Conventional Techniques
84(6)
4.2.1 The Changing Perception of Investors
84(4)
4.2.2 Historical Application of the Basic Valuation Model
88(2)
4.3 Rationale of the Pre-1960 Appraisal Approach
90(4)
4.4 The Post-1960 Conventional Market Valuation Model
94(13)
4.4.1 The Fully Let Freehold
95(1)
4.4.2 The Reversionary Freehold
95(7)
4.4.3 Over-Rented Properties
102(5)
4.5 Conclusions
107(2)
5 Contemporary Freehold Market Valuations 109(26)
5.1 Introduction
109(2)
5.2 Analysing Transactions
111(3)
5.2.1 Implied Rental Growth Rate Analysis
111(1)
5.2.2 Calculation of the Implied Rental Growth Rate
111(2)
5.2.3 Implied Target Rate Analysis
113(1)
5.3 Full Explicit and Short-cut DCF Valuation Models
114(4)
5.3.1 Introduction
114(1)
5.3.2 An Explicit Cash-Flow Model Including Short Cut DCF
114(3)
5.3.3 DCF by Formula
117(1)
5.4 Alternatives to DCF
118(9)
5.4.1 Introduction
118(1)
5.4.2 Real Value
119(5)
5.4.3 Arbitrage Model
124(3)
5.5 Reversionary Freehold Valuations
127(3)
5.5.1 Analysis of Transactions
127(1)
5.5.2 Short Cut DCF
128(1)
5.5.3 Real Value
128(1)
5.5.4 Arbitrage
129(1)
5.6 Over-rented Contemporary Model Valuations
130(3)
5.6.1 Analysis of Transactions
130(1)
5.6.2 Short Cut DCF
131(1)
5.6.3 Real Value
131(1)
5.6.4 Arbitrage
132(1)
5.7 Summary
133(2)
6 Freehold Market Valuations - Applications 135(50)
6.1 Introduction
135(1)
6.2 Analysis of Transactions
136(3)
6.3 Rack Rented or Vacant Property Investments
139(3)
6.3.1 Conventional Model
139(1)
6.3.2 DCF by Formula
140(1)
6.3.3 Explicit DCF (Assuming a Nine-Year Holding Period)
140(1)
6.3.4 Arbitrage/Real Value
141(1)
6.4 Two-Stage Reversionary Freeholds
142(11)
6.4.1 Basic Two-Stage Reversionary Freeholds
142(1)
6.4.2 Long Reversions
143(3)
6.4.3 Over-rented Properties
146(7)
6.5 More Complex Reversionary Freeholds
153(14)
6.5.1 Lease Events and the Valuation of Multi-let Property
153(9)
6.5.2 Alternative Review Forms: Indexation and Fixed Increases
162(4)
6.5.3 Summary
166(1)
6.6 Comparing Conventional and Contemporary Techniques
167(11)
6.6.1 Defending Conventional Techniques
167(1)
6.6.2 Target-Rate Choice
167(1)
6.6.3 Fully Let Freeholds: Contemporary Versus Conventional Valuations
168(1)
6.6.4 Reversionary Freeholds: Contemporary Versus Conventional Valuations
169(9)
6.7 Taxation and Market Valuation
178(4)
6.8 Conclusions
182(3)
7 Leasehold Valuations 185(32)
7.1 Introduction
185(1)
7.2 The Evolution of Conventional Leasehold Valuations
185(9)
7.3 Contemporary Leasehold Valuations
194(12)
7.3.1 Fixed Leasehold Profit Rents
195(1)
7.3.2 Geared Leasehold Profit Rents Reviewable Rent Received, Fixed Rent Paid
196(4)
7.3.3 Synchronised Reviews in Head- and Sub-leases
200(1)
7.3.4 Reversionary Leaseholds Reviewable Rent Received, Fixed Rent Paid
200(2)
7.3.5 Reviewable Rent Received, Unsynchronised Reviewable Rent Paid
202(2)
7.3.6 Over-rented Leaseholds
204(2)
7.4 Conventional Versus Contemporary Techniques
206(3)
7.5 The Limitations of the Contemporary Models for Leaseholds
209(6)
7.5.1 Analysis and Valuation Using Leasehold Comparables
209(3)
7.5.2 Analysis and Valuation Using Freehold Comparables
212(3)
7.6 Taxation and the Market Valuation of Leaseholds
215(1)
7.7 Conclusions
216(1)
8 Measurement and Pricing of Risk in Appraisals 217(24)
8.1 Introduction
217(1)
8.2 Nature and Sources of Risk
218(2)
8.3 Measuring Risk
220(12)
8.3.1 Risk-Adjusted Discount Rate
222(2)
8.3.2 Sensitivity Analysis
224(4)
8.3.3 Scenarios
228(1)
8.3.4 Simulations
229(3)
8.4 Risk Pricing
232(6)
8.4.1 Assessing the Risk Premium
233(1)
8.4.2 Certainty-Equivalent Cash Flows
234(1)
8.4.3 The Sliced-Income Approach
235(3)
8.5 Summary
238(3)
9 Development Appraisal 241(18)
9.1 Introduction
241(1)
9.2 Valuation Methods
242(8)
9.2.1 Basic Residual Method
242(1)
9.2.2 Discounted Cash Flow Residual Method
243(7)
9.3 Developer's Profit
250(3)
9.4 Changes in Costs and Values and Phasing of Developments
253(1)
9.5 Finance
253(1)
9.6 Conclusion
254(5)
10 Bank Lending Appraisals 259(14)
10.1 Introduction
259(1)
10.2 The Bank Lending Valuation Problem
260(1)
10.3 Market Value
261(1)
10.4 Mortgage Lending Value
261(2)
10.5 Basel III Definition of Long-term Value
263(1)
10.6 Investment Value
264(1)
10.7 Illustration of the Three Established Approaches
264(4)
10.7.1 Market Value (Equivalent Yield 6.5%)
265(1)
10.7.2 Mortgage Lending Value
266(1)
10.7.3 Investment Value
267(1)
10.8 Performance of the Three Valuation Bases over the Last Two Property Market Downturns in the UK
268(3)
10.9 Summary and Conclusions
271(2)
11 Conclusions 273(4)
Bibliography 277
Index 29
ANDREW E. BAUM is Professor of Practice at the Saļd Business School, University of Oxford, where he leads the Future of Real Estate Initiative. He is also Senior Research Fellow at Green Templeton College and Emeritus Professor at the University of Reading. He is Chairman of Newcore Capital Management and advisor to several property organisations. He has held senior positions with Nuveen, CBRE Global Investors, Grosvenor and other investors and fund managers.

NEIL CROSBY is Professor of Real Estate in the Department of Real Estate and Planning at the University of Reading. He is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences, has been awarded life membership of the Investment Property Forum and a fellowship of the Society of Property Researchers, and is a member of the RICS Valuation Standards Board. He originally qualified and practised as a Chartered Valuation Surveyor in the UK before holding academic positions at Nottingham Trent and Oxford Brookes Universities.

STEVEN DEVANEY is an Associate Professor at the Henley Business School, University of Reading, where he teaches both investment appraisal and market valuation methods. He was previously a Lecturer in Real Estate at the University of Aberdeen and worked as an analyst at Investment Property Databank.
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